South32 Ltd (ASX, LSE, JSE: S32) is back in the spotlight as we roll into December 2025, with its share price hovering around A$3.22 on the ASX and sentiment slowly thawing after a volatile year. [1]
A 75% jump in full‑year profit, strong alumina and copper production, a big impairment at the Mozal smelter, and regulatory noise around its Hermosa project in Arizona have all been thrown into the market blender this year. [2]
This article pulls together the latest news, numbers and analyst forecasts as of 1 December 2025, and looks at what they might mean for South32’s stock over the next 12–18 months.
Where South32’s share price stands on 1 December 2025
South32 is listed in Australia (ASX:S32), London (LSE:S32) and Johannesburg (JSE:S32). On its primary ASX line, the stock is trading around A$3.20–3.30, with the company’s own website showing A$3.22 as the latest quoted price. [3]
Some context:
- Over the last three months, Simply Wall St notes the stock is up about 8%, despite a mild 3% dip over the most recent month. [4]
- Over 12 months, South32 is still down roughly 13–14%, according to TradingEconomics data. [5]
- MarketIndex shows South32 has underperformed its sector and the ASX 200 over one year, with the stock lagging the materials sector by roughly 29 percentage points. [6]
In other words: price momentum has improved since mid‑2025, but long‑term holders are still nursing bruises.
FY25 results: big profit rebound, alumina in the driver’s seat
South32’s financial year 2025 (to 30 June) was, on paper, a strong one.
Profit and earnings
According to its August 28 results announcement:
- Underlying earnings jumped 75% year‑on‑year to US$666 million, up from US$380 million.
- The company still missed consensus expectations (Visible Alpha had about US$697.7 million), thanks in part to weaker contributions from Australia Manganese earlier in the year after Cyclone Megan. [7]
The real hero was alumina:
- The alumina division benefited from a 45% rise in alumina prices, lifting divisional operating earnings by US$714 million to US$1.08 billion. [8]
- Aluminium also benefited from stronger prices amid tight supply. [9]
Operationally, South32 told investors it:
- Achieved around 102% of Group FY25 production guidance, and
- Expected FY25 operating unit costs to land broadly in line with guidance. [10]
That combination – higher prices plus better‑than‑guided production – is exactly what you hope for in a cyclical miner.
Production: copper and aluminium growth, manganese recovery
The July 2025 quarterly and FY25 wrap showed a company clawing back from earlier disruptions.
Key production trends:
- Copper production grew 20% year‑on‑year, helped by the Sierra Gorda operation in Chile.
- Aluminium production rose 6% year‑on‑year.
- The group exceeded FY25 production guidance, and sales volumes climbed 21% in the June quarter, helping unwind about US$225 million of working capital. [11]
Manganese, which was hammered by Tropical Cyclone Megan at the GEMCO mine, staged a big comeback:
- In the September 2025 quarter, South32 reported a 135% jump in manganese ore output to 1.4 million wet metric tonnes, beating analyst expectations and sending the share price up more than 6% on the day. [12]
- The recovery was supported by about US$350 million in insurance payouts, used to repair cyclone damage and restart exports from Australia Manganese. [13]
So operationally, the picture is: alumina and copper humming, manganese back online, and the company slightly over‑delivering on guidance – which is why some analysts now talk about South32 having “operating momentum” again. [14]
Dividends, buybacks and balance sheet strength
Income investors care less about ore grades and more about cash getting mailed back to them.
For FY25:
- South32 declared a final dividend of 2.6 US cents per share (about 3.93 Australian cents, fully franked), with payment on 16 October 2025. [15]
- Combined with the earlier interim dividend (5.4 Australian cents), the total FY25 dividend was around 9.3 Australian cents, implying a yield of roughly 2.8–3.0% at current prices, before franking credits. [16]
- The company also returned about US$350 million to shareholders in FY25 via dividends and on‑market buybacks. [17]
Critically, South32 still sits in a net cash position after its coal divestments and disciplined capex. That gives it room to keep funding growth projects and return capital, even if commodity prices wobble. [18]
Management has extended its capital management program to mid‑September 2026, with around US$144 million still authorised to be returned to shareholders. [19]
Growth engine: Hermosa, Sierra Gorda and the pivot to energy‑transition metals
South32 has spent the last few years detoxing from thermal coal and leaning hard into metals that feed electrification and decarbonisation – copper, manganese, aluminium, zinc and silver. [20]
Hermosa (Arizona, US)
Hermosa is the flagship growth project:
- South32 invested US$517 million in FY25 at Hermosa.
- At the Taylor zinc‑lead‑silver deposit, the company has started sinking the main shaft and building the process plant.
- The broader Hermosa hub includes potential battery‑grade manganese and copper, making it a multi‑metal complex squarely in the “energy transition” theme. [21]
Regulatory wrinkle: in October 2025, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published an order on a petition challenging Hermosa’s air permit. The EPA granted the petition in part and denied it in part, meaning regulators found some issues that needed addressing but did not outright revoke the permit. Petitioners have until 1 December 2025 to seek judicial review. [22]
Translation: the project is still alive, but Hermosa will stay under environmental and legal scrutiny – something investors need to price in.
Sierra Gorda (Chile)
Sierra Gorda is the other big growth pillar:
- FY25 copper‑equivalent production at Sierra Gorda rose 20%, beating guidance by about 4%.
- The operation delivered US$176 million in distributions to South32 during FY25. [23]
Management continues to talk up a potential expansion, which, if approved, would further tilt South32 toward copper at a time when many analysts expect structural deficits later this decade. [24]
Mozal: the aluminium problem child
For all the good news, Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique has become a major headache.
In August, South32:
- Flagged a US$372 million impairment on Mozal,
- Warned it may have to place the smelter into care and maintenance from March 2026, and
- Said it could not secure affordable power beyond the end of its current supply agreement. [25]
CEO Graham Kerr told Reuters the power offers on the table would leave Mozal cash‑flow negative “every single month”, which is not exactly a compelling investment case. [26]
The company now expects its share of Mozal output to fall from about 355 kt in FY25 to 240 kt in FY26, and has already started pulling back investment (for example, curtailing pot relining). [27]
Market reaction: shares dropped more than 5% on the day of the impairment announcement. [28]
Bigger picture, Mozal shows the risk of aluminium smelting in power‑constrained, regulated markets – and why South32 trades at a discount to “simpler” iron‑ore‑heavy giants like BHP and Rio Tinto.
ESG pressure: Norway’s wealth fund and Amazon bauxite
On the ESG front, South32 is under the microscope for its participation in Mineração Rio do Norte (MRN), a major bauxite mine in the Amazon rainforest.
In May 2025, Norway’s US$1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund chose to engage with Rio Tinto and South32 over MRN‑related environmental concerns instead of divesting immediately. [29]
Key points:
- The fund holds about a 2.6% stake in South32.
- South32 owns around 33% of MRN, alongside Glencore (45%) and Rio Tinto (22%). [30]
- The Council on Ethics had recommended divestment, but the fund instead opted for a 5–10 year engagement program aimed at reducing “serious environmental harm.” [31]
That’s not an immediate financial hit, but it raises the bar for South32’s environmental disclosure and remediation. For a mining company trying to brand itself as “energy‑transition friendly,” the Amazon is a sensitive place to be digging holes.
CEO transition, governance and shareholder dissent
South32 is also preparing for a change at the top.
In May 2025, the company named Matthew Daley, a senior Anglo American executive with a copper and operations background, as CEO‑designate:
- Daley will join as deputy CEO in 2026, then take over from long‑serving CEO Graham Kerr later that year. [32]
- Under Kerr, South32 has shifted from coal toward base metals and approved multi‑billion‑dollar investments at Hermosa and Sierra Gorda. Some investors, however, argue that the pivot has been slower and riskier than it needed to be. [33]
On governance, South32’s latest AGM saw a shareholder vote against the remuneration report, signalling at least some frustration with pay and strategy. [34]
Put together, you’ve got a company in the middle of a strategic and leadership transition, just as capital demands for growth projects are ramping up.
What are analysts saying about South32’s share price and valuation?
Analysts and data providers are… mildly optimistic, with a recurring “yes, but” tone.
Broker and consensus targets
- TipRanks reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus, based on 11 analysts (7 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell). The average 12‑month target is A$3.42, with a range from A$2.90 to A$4.00 – implying roughly 6% upside from around A$3.22. [35]
- Fintel shows a slightly higher average one‑year target of A$3.51, with forecasts spanning A$2.63–A$4.54. [36]
- On the London line (LSE:S32), MarketBeat cites an average target of GBX 125 from three analysts, versus a current price in the mid‑teens (pounds‑per‑share equivalent), again pointing to modest upside rather than a moonshot. [37]
Valuation and “fair value” models
Simply Wall St’s November 25 analysis paints a slightly quirky picture: [38]
- Their model puts fair value at about A$3.32, implying the stock is roughly 5% undervalued at A$3.15–3.20.
- But South32’s price‑to‑earnings ratio of ~28.7x is well above the sector average (around 20–21x), raising questions about how much good news is already baked in.
In plainer language: cash flows and project pipeline justify some optimism, but this is not a dirt‑cheap deep value play anymore.
Independent research and newsletters
A detailed November analysis from Discovery Alert is openly bullish, effectively labeling South32 a buy: [39]
- They highlight 75% year‑to‑date gains in silver, around 27% in copper and double‑digit aluminium gains in 2025, arguing that South32’s diversified basket (via Cannington, Sierra Gorda, alumina/aluminium and manganese) makes it a leveraged play on metals used in electrification and renewable infrastructure.
- They emphasise South32’s net cash balance sheet, coal exit, and focus on energy‑transition commodities as structural positives.
- On technicals, they note an ~11.5% six‑month share price advance and rising volumes as signs of renewed institutional interest.
At the same time, Discovery Alert and others stress all the usual caveats: commodity price volatility, operational risk and geopolitics can all smack the share price around in ways spreadsheets don’t like. [40]
How does South32’s risk–reward stack up now?
Let’s distill the bull and bear cases the market is currently juggling.
Bullish arguments
- Stronger earnings and cash flow: FY25 profit and cash generation rebounded sharply thanks to alumina pricing, copper growth and a recovering manganese business. [41]
- Energy‑transition positioning: Copper, silver, manganese, zinc and aluminium all sit on the “critical metals” list for renewables, EVs and grid upgrades. South32 has exposure across that whole basket. [42]
- Balance sheet: Net cash, ongoing buybacks and franked dividends give management options and offer some downside cushion. [43]
- Operational momentum: Exceeding production guidance, restarting GEMCO, and growing Sierra Gorda output all support the story that the worst disruptions are behind it. [44]
- New CEO with copper pedigree: Matthew Daley’s background at Anglo American and Glencore’s copper operations aligns with the company’s growth focus. [45]
Bearish arguments
- Mozal risk and impairments: A US$372 million write‑down, potential closure in 2026, and reduced output guidance are not trivial for the aluminium portfolio or for ESG optics. [46]
- Regulatory and ESG overhangs: The Hermosa permit challenge and Norway’s wealth fund engagement over Amazon bauxite mean more scrutiny, more conditions and potentially more costs. [47]
- Valuation is no longer “distressed”: A ~28–29x P/E and only mid‑single‑digit implied upside from broker targets suggest limited margin of safety if metals prices roll over. [48]
- Shareholder unease: A rejected remuneration report at the AGM is usually a polite way of saying “we’re watching you.” [49]
In short: South32 today looks like a reasonably valued, moderately cyclical bet on the metals needed for decarbonisation, with genuine upside from Hermosa and Sierra Gorda – but also with meaningful execution, ESG and regulatory risks.
Key catalysts to watch in 2026
Investors tracking South32 into 2026 will be watching several known catalysts:
- December 2025 quarterly report – scheduled for 22 January 2026 and likely to update on FY26 production trends, costs and any Mozal developments. [50]
- Hermosa legal and permitting process – whether environmental groups seek judicial review of the EPA’s order and how Arizona and federal regulators handle any follow‑up. [51]
- Mozal power negotiations – any breakthrough (or breakdown) in talks with Mozambique’s government and power suppliers that could change the smelter’s fate. [52]
- Commodity prices – especially silver (recently around US$55/oz), copper and aluminium, where 2025’s sharp gains have been a significant tailwind for South32’s revenue mix. [53]
- CEO transition milestones – announcements around Daley’s start date as deputy CEO, and any strategy updates that might tweak the current portfolio or capital allocation priorities. [54]
Final thoughts (and a quick sanity check)
From an investing‑philosophy standpoint, South32 in December 2025 is a great example of a complex, multi‑factor bet:
- You’re not just betting on “metals go up.”
- You’re also betting on management navigating permitting, ESG, power markets, and capital allocation in at least five different jurisdictions without dropping the ball.
Analysts mostly expect modest upside rather than explosive returns at current prices. Bulls argue that if Hermosa and Sierra Gorda deliver anywhere near plan and energy‑transition metals stay tight, today’s valuation will look conservative. Bears counter that Mozal, regulatory risk and high costs could chew up a lot of that theoretical upside.
Either way, this is very much not a “set and forget” stock. It’s a miner where the homework – understanding assets, cost curves, ESG issues and permitting – actually matters.
Important: None of this is personal financial advice. It’s a synthesis of publicly available information as at 1 December 2025. Before making any decision about South32 (or any other stock), consider your own risk tolerance, investment horizon and, ideally, talk to a licensed financial adviser.
References
1. www.south32.net, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.south32.net, 4. simplywall.st, 5. tradingeconomics.com, 6. www.marketindex.com.au, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.south32.net, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.couriermail.com.au, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.south32.net, 16. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 17. www.investing.com, 18. discoveryalert.com.au, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. discoveryalert.com.au, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.federalregister.gov, 23. www.investing.com, 24. discoveryalert.com.au, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.mining.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. global.morningstar.com, 35. www.tipranks.com, 36. fintel.io, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. simplywall.st, 39. discoveryalert.com.au, 40. discoveryalert.com.au, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. discoveryalert.com.au, 43. www.investing.com, 44. www.south32.net, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.reuters.com, 47. www.federalregister.gov, 48. simplywall.st, 49. global.morningstar.com, 50. www.south32.net, 51. www.federalregister.gov, 52. www.reuters.com, 53. stocksdownunder.com, 54. www.reuters.com
