SYDNEY, Jan 14, 2026, 17:31 AEDT — The market has closed.
- South32 finished flat, slipping between A$3.95 and A$4.03 during the session
- China’s newest trade figures for steel and iron ore have shifted focus back onto bulk demand
- Upcoming events to watch: South32’s quarterly report due late January and its half-year results in February
South32 Ltd (S32.AX) finished Wednesday steady at A$3.96, after drifting down from an intraday high of A$4.03. Around 18.6 million shares traded hands. The stock has gained roughly 12% year-to-date and touched a January peak of A$4.04 just the day before, according to price data. 1
The stock stalled as traders absorbed new data from China, a crucial market for steel and raw materials. Customs figures revealed China shipped a record 11.3 million metric tons of steel in December and imported an unprecedented 1.26 billion tons of iron ore in 2025. At the same time, Beijing is set to introduce export licensing for steel shipments starting in 2026. 2
“We forecast global iron ore output to increase 2.5% year-on-year in 2026,” said Bai Xin, an analyst at Horizon Insights, warning that rising supply will weigh on prices. Meanwhile, Pei Hao from Freight Investor Services noted that export licensing will raise compliance costs and restrict some low-grade steel exports, signaling weaker shipments this year. 2
South32’s China outlook is crucial now, with shares having surged sharply into mid-January and hovering close to recent peaks. This tight range means there’s little wiggle room for surprises when the miner reports on output, costs, and cash flow next.
The S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.1% to close at 8,820, nudging the broader Australian market slightly higher. Spot gold gained roughly 1%, reaching $4,636 an ounce. Brent crude dipped 0.3%, settling at $65.25 a barrel in a late-session update. 3
Company-specific risks remain in play. South32 announced last month it plans to mothball the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique by March, placing it under care and maintenance after power deal talks fell through. The move will cost the company a $60 million one-off charge. 4
Sentiment would take a swift hit if energy costs spike again or metals prices fall more sharply, especially following the gains earlier this year. Investors have already shown little tolerance for rising costs across the sector.
South32 will release its December-quarter report on Jan. 22, then follow up with half-year results and an interim dividend decision on Feb. 12. The shares go ex-dividend on March 5, so anyone buying after that won’t get the payout. The record date is March 6, with payments expected around April 2, per the company’s schedule. 5
