South32 share price jumps 5% after manganese rebound — what investors watch next

South32 share price jumps 5% after manganese rebound — what investors watch next

Sydney, Jan 22, 2026, 17:26 AEDT — Market closed.

Shares of South32 Ltd climbed 5.26% to close at A$4.40 on Thursday, boosted by the miner’s recent production update that sent the stock soaring to new highs. (Investing)

The stock hit a peak of A$4.44, marking its highest point since mid-April 2023. This came after the company posted stronger quarterly manganese production and kept its full-year outlook unchanged. (Investing)

This move is significant as South32’s manganese operations recover from weather-related setbacks. Investors are keen to gauge how consistent volumes will translate into cash flow ahead of the February earnings report.

South32 reported a 16.7% jump in manganese output for the second quarter, hitting 1.3 million wet metric tons (wmt) from its Australian and South African sites, matching the Visible Alpha consensus, according to Reuters. The company has leaned on a rebound at its Australia Manganese operation following Tropical Cyclone Megan. (Mining)

South32’s December-quarter report confirmed its FY26 production guidance for operated assets remains steady. Operating unit costs in the first half mostly matched or came in below expectations. CEO Graham Kerr pointed to the group’s steady operational performance and emphasized both shareholder returns and investment in growth projects. (MarketScreener)

The report highlighted a crucial point: guidance for non-operated Brazil Aluminium is being reassessed after quarterly volumes came in below expectations. South32 plans to update its outlook alongside its half-year results. Meanwhile, Australia Manganese guidance holds steady at 3,200 thousand wet metric tonnes (kwmt), though this could be affected by the wet season. South Africa Manganese guidance remains at 2,000 kwmt, with additional maintenance scheduled for the March 2026 quarter. (MarketScreener)

Mozal, the aluminium smelter in Mozambique, remains a key issue in the short term. South32 announced in December that it plans to place Mozal on care and maintenance around March 15, 2026, after failing to secure a new electricity supply deal. The company estimated one-off costs at about US$60 million. Kerr noted that Mozal’s continued operation hinges on power “at a price which allows the smelter to remain internationally competitive.” (Investegate)

But things can still go sideways. Wet-season disruptions often disrupt mining and shipping operations in northern Australia. A sharper downgrade at Brazil Aluminium would sting, especially after the stock’s recent rally. Plus, costs often spike unpredictably once maintenance kicks in.

Traders will be closely monitoring if the rally can stay above A$4.30 in the next session, alongside whether volume continues to back the Thursday spike.

South32’s half-year results and interim dividend decision are set for Feb. 12. (Investegate)

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