Southern Copper (SCCO) Stock This Week: Record-High Copper, Analyst Targets, and the Week-Ahead Setup (Updated Dec. 12, 2025)

Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: SCCO) closed Friday at $142.41, down 3.54% on the day after a sharp reversal that saw shares trade between $141.84 and $149.75. ^[1]

That volatility is happening for a simple reason: SCCO is moving with copper at the margin, and copper has been anything but calm. The metal pushed toward fresh records near $12,000/ton this week, supported by supply disruptions, policy uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, and a market increasingly focused on the multi-year demand story tied to electrification and AI-related power buildouts. ^[2]

Below is a full roundup of the key Southern Copper headlines from the last several days, what analysts are forecasting now, and what to watch in the week ahead.

Key takeaways for SCCO investors

SCCO touched fresh highs and then reversed hard on Friday, finishing the week only modestly higher despite the late selloff. ^[3]
Copper hit record territory near $12,000/ton before pulling back, and daily price swings are feeding directly into large-cap copper equities like Southern Copper. ^[4]
Analyst sentiment remains cautious: “Hold/Neutral” dominates, and many 12‑month targets sit below the current share price—though some firms are raising targets as copper stays elevated. ^[5]
Fundamentals are strong: Southern Copper reported record quarterly metrics in Q3 and highlighted a very low cash cost profile, which matters a lot if copper cools from record levels. ^[6]

SCCO stock performance this week: rally, record prints, then a Friday reversal

Southern Copper shares were strong through midweek, then whipsawed on Friday. Based on recent daily pricing, SCCO ended Dec. 12 at $142.41, after trading as high as $149.75 during the session. ^[7]

From a weekly perspective, the more important story is not the net change—it’s the shape of the move:

A steady climb early in the week, tracking higher copper prices
A push to new highs
A sharp pullback as traders took profits into the weekend and copper dipped from record levels ^[8]

This kind of “up big, then fade” tape often shows up when a stock is priced for near-perfect commodity conditions—and the market starts stress-testing whether the commodity rally can extend.

Why copper is dominating the SCCO narrative right now

Copper has been the primary driver of sentiment across the entire sector, and the week’s price action delivered both fuel and friction:

Reuters reported copper traded up toward $12,000/ton and noted the metal is up around 35% in 2025, as supply tightness and strong demand expectations collide with tariff-driven flows into U.S. warehouses. ^[9]
At the same time, copper also saw a meaningful pullback into Friday, with Trading Economics showing copper down to $5.28/lb on Dec. 12, a 2.45% day-over-day drop. ^[10]

For SCCO, those crosscurrents matter because Southern Copper is often treated as a high-quality, liquid proxy for copper exposure—especially by investors who want scale, dividends, and operating leverage without small-cap mining risk.

The “tariff premium” and inventory migration is part of the story

A key market theme this week has been copper shifting into U.S. COMEX warehouses as traders respond to tariff uncertainty and pricing dislocations between exchanges. Reuters highlighted that COMEX warehouse stocks have been surging while LME stocks have been falling, and noted that U.S. refined copper is currently exempt from a 50% import tariff implemented earlier in 2025—though the policy is under review. ^[11]

This matters for SCCO because U.S. policy can alter regional premiums, trade flows, and realized pricing, even if the global benchmark price remains the headline.

Copper price forecasts: UBS turns more bullish, Goldman sees a range in 2026

If you’re building a “week ahead” view for SCCO, you can’t avoid the reality that copper forecasts are diverging—and that keeps volatility high.

UBS: higher targets into 2026

Reuters reported UBS lifted its copper outlook, with forecasts stepping up through 2026 and expectations for continued deficits over the next two years. ^[12]

A more bullish copper tape typically supports SCCO in two ways:

higher expected cash flows, and
higher “multiple tolerance” from investors willing to pay up for scarcity exposure.

Goldman Sachs: range-bound in 2026, but structurally bullish long term

Goldman Sachs’ outlook (published this week) described a near-term setup where copper may trade in a $10,000–$11,000/ton range in 2026, with a projected average around $10,710/ton in the first half of 2026, partly due to expectations for supply growth outpacing demand growth in that period. ^[13]

Goldman also framed a longer-term bullish view, forecasting materially higher prices by the mid‑2030s as structural demand rises. ^[14]

For SCCO investors, that split matters: short-term valuation often reacts to 6–18 month copper expectations, while the strategic bull case depends on the multi-year electrification/AI grid buildout story.

Southern Copper fundamentals: strong Q3 results, very low cash costs

Southern Copper’s most recent quarterly reporting helps explain why the stock has been treated as a “premium copper name” during this rally.

In its Q3 2025 reporting, Southern Copper highlighted:

Net sales of $3,377.3 million (a quarterly record), up 15.2% versus Q3 2024 ^[15]
Net income of $1,107.6 million, up 23.5% versus Q3 2024 ^[16]
Adjusted EBITDA of $1,975.4 million, up 17.3% year-over-year ^[17]
Operating cash cost of $0.42 per pound of copper (net of by-product credits) in Q3, down sharply from the year-ago quarter ^[18]

That last metric is crucial. When copper is high, most producers look good. When copper cools, the cost curve decides who holds margins—and Southern Copper is emphasizing it sits on the favorable end of that curve. ^[19]

Production: down modestly in Q3, but guidance remains the anchor

Operationally, SCC reported copper production of 234,892 tonnes in Q3 (down 6.9% quarter-over-quarter), and 714,098 tonnes year-to-date (down 2.8%), pointing to lower ore grades as a factor. ^[20]

On its earnings call materials, the company also said it expects to produce 960,000 tons of copper in 2025, slightly below plan and down versus the prior year. ^[21]

Growth pipeline: Tía María progress and longer-dated Peru optionality

SCCO’s “next leg” growth narrative remains closely tied to Peru—especially Tía María, a project with a long and politically sensitive history.

Reuters reported Southern Copper said the $1.8 billion Tía María project is 23% complete, maintaining a target to start production in 2027. ^[22]

Earlier in 2025, Reuters also reported Southern Copper is investing heavily in new projects and expects Peru production to hold steady, while describing a longer runway of investments and start dates for major projects. ^[23]

The market implication: even after a big rally, SCCO still trades partly on “duration”—the belief that it can convert a large project pipeline into steady, low-cost copper production through the late 2020s and beyond.

Analyst and ratings news this week: targets rise, but “Hold” still dominates

Zacks downgrade noted early this week

A widely circulated update this week was a Zacks downgrade from “strong-buy” to “hold,” reported by MarketBeat. ^[24]

UBS raises its price target (Dec. 12)

On Friday, GuruFocus reported UBS analyst Myles Allsop maintained a Neutral stance but raised the price target from $135 to $143. ^[25]

Consensus: Hold/Neutral, average target around $120

Despite incremental target increases, the broader sell-side picture still looks cautious. StockAnalysis shows the analyst consensus as “Hold” with an average price target of $120.59, implying downside from current levels. ^[26]

That “targets below price” setup is common late in commodity rallies: analysts update models more slowly than the tape moves, and many will wait to see whether the commodity price surge is sustainable before fully re-rating equities.

Dividends: strong cash returns, but keep the cycle in mind

Southern Copper’s income profile continues to attract attention. In its Q3 materials, the company referenced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.90 per share, alongside a stock dividend of 0.0085 shares per share of common stock (paid in late November to shareholders of record in mid-November). ^[27]

At Friday’s close, an annualized $3.60 cash dividend implies a cash yield in the mid‑2% range—but investors should remember mining dividends tend to be cycle-sensitive. ^[28]

Insider activity: small Form 4 sale disclosed

One corporate governance datapoint that circulated this month: a Form 4 filing showed director Luis Miguel Palomino Bonilla sold 400 shares at $139 on Dec. 3, 2025. ^[29]

The transaction is small relative to the company’s size, but it’s still the kind of headline that can get amplified when a stock is near highs.

Risks and pressure points to watch

Even bulls generally agree SCCO now faces a tougher near-term debate: Is the stock already pricing in “peak copper,” or is copper just getting started?

Here are the key risks most likely to move SCCO in the near term:

Copper mean reversion
If copper pulls back further from record levels, SCCO could retrace quickly—especially with many analyst targets below current price. ^[30]
Policy shocks: tariffs and trade flow volatility
Reuters highlighted how tariff uncertainty is reshaping inventory positioning and exchange spreads; sudden clarity (either direction) could move copper and copper equities abruptly. ^[31]
Peru project execution and social/license risk
Reuters has previously reported project delays and disruptions in Peru tied to social conflict and illegal mining issues—reminders that project optionality comes with execution risk. ^[32]
Valuation risk after a major run
When a cyclical stock trades near record highs, the bar for “good news” rises. Friday’s reversal—despite copper’s strong backdrop—shows that sensitivity clearly. ^[33]

Week ahead: what could move SCCO next week

With no major company-specific catalyst currently dominating headlines, SCCO’s “week ahead” setup is mostly macro + copper-market structure.

1) U.S. rates, the dollar, and inflation data

The Federal Reserve cut rates this week, lowering the target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.5%–3.75%, and emphasized it will watch incoming data for next steps. ^[34]

Next week brings heavy U.S. macro risk. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s week-ahead preview flags key releases including China activity data, a delayed U.S. employment report, retail sales, and U.S. CPI—all of which can move the dollar and risk appetite, and therefore copper. ^[35]

2) China data early in the week

Copper traders will be watching China’s industrial and consumer indicators closely. The Business Times previewed China’s upcoming data as markets weigh the strength of demand and the policy response path. ^[36]

3) The COMEX vs LME inventory story

The tariff-driven relocation of copper inventories into U.S. warehouses has been a key theme. If that accelerates—or reverses—it could affect short-term copper pricing dynamics and sentiment in miners. ^[37]

4) M&A and “sector temperature checks”

A Reuters report this week said China’s Jiangxi Copper raised its takeover bid for SolGold, underscoring continued interest in copper assets and broader consolidation signals in the space. ^[38]

While SCCO isn’t directly involved, M&A headlines can lift sentiment across copper equities by reinforcing the idea that quality copper assets are scarce.

Bottom line: SCCO remains a copper bellwether—now with a valuation debate front and center

Southern Copper enters the week ahead as a classic “two-handed” story:

The bull case: structurally tight copper, high-quality assets, very low cash costs, and a visible project pipeline that can extend growth into the late 2020s. ^[39]
The near-term challenge: the stock has already priced in a lot of good news, analyst targets haven’t fully caught up, and copper’s record run is producing sharper day-to-day swings. ^[40]

If copper stays firm (or pushes to fresh highs again), SCCO can still work—especially given its liquidity and margin profile. If copper cools, the market may quickly shift from “scarcity premium” to “cycle risk,” and Friday’s reversal is a reminder of how fast that rotation can happen. ^[41]