NEW YORK, January 7, 2026, 06:01 EST — Premarket
- U.S. labor-market data due this week include JOLTS on Jan. 7 and payrolls on Jan. 9; CPI follows on Jan. 13.
- JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to post results and hold its earnings call on Jan. 13.
Strategists polled by Reuters see the S&P 500 at 7,490 by end-2026, implying gains of just over 9% from end-2025 as investors weigh Fed succession, election risk and the durability of the AI boom. A slim majority—56%—also forecast a market correction in the coming months. “The most under-appreciated tail risk for 2026 is that the Fed eases monetary policy more than economic conditions justify, inadvertently reigniting inflation,” said Lale Akoner, a global market strategist at eToro. Reuters
Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.62% at 6,944.82, just under 7,000, while the Nasdaq rose 0.65% and the Dow gained 0.99% to a record. SanDisk jumped over 27% and Western Digital gained 17% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang spoke at CES, while Moderna rose almost 11% after BofA raised its price target. “We’re going to have a very strong earnings season for Big Tech,” said Jed Ellerbroek at Argent Capital, as the S&P 500 trades around 22 times expected earnings, about $22 per $1 of forecast profit, LSEG data show. Reuters
Investors get the next macro test at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, when the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November is due. Friday’s employment report for December follows at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the consumer price index (CPI) for December — a key inflation gauge — is scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said some release dates remain subject to change after a lapse in government services.
Fourth-quarter earnings season starts in earnest next week, with U.S. bank results expected to set the tone on credit quality, trading and dealmaking. JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) plans to release results at 7:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Jan. 13 and hold its earnings call at 8:30 a.m., the bank said.
Some investors are positioning for a broader 2026 U.S. stock market rally, looking beyond expensive tech leaders as rate cuts lower financing costs. “The big difference going into 2026 is that we finally are seeing earnings growth come back into small caps,” said Oren Shiran, a portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management. Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis expects the Russell 2000 small-cap index to end 2026 at 2,825, and LSEG data compiled by Reuters show traders pricing two 25-basis-point, or quarter-point, Fed cuts this year. Reuters
But a stumble in inflation data or an earnings season that fails to justify AI spending could trigger profit-taking after the early-year run to records. Political and geopolitical shocks — from U.S. trade policy to overseas crises — also remain a wild card for risk assets.
With the S&P 500 near 7,000, traders will look for signs that gains can broaden beyond a narrow set of AI-linked winners. The bond market’s reaction to incoming labor data will matter as much as the headlines, because yields shape the discount rate investors use to value future profits.
The first test comes on Friday, Jan. 9, with the December jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. A weak reading would bolster expectations of faster easing, while a stronger one could keep pressure on valuation-sensitive stocks.
