NEW YORK, August 13, 2026, 06:25 EDT — U.S. premarket trade has started, while the cash session is set to open at 09:30 EDT.
S&P 500 futures edged up 0.2% in early Thursday trading. This move would recoup only around a fifth of the index’s 71.40-point deficit to its all-time high. July producer price figures due at 08:30 EDT are now in sharper focus.
Market conditions remain tight. The S&P 500 was most recently at 7,445.72, sitting 0.95% under last week’s all-time high of 7,517.12. A favorable PPI reading might help close that gap quickly, while a stronger-than-expected release could challenge momentum already factoring in an unchanged Federal Reserve stance.
| US index futures | Early move | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | +0.3% | Out in front |
| S&P 500 | +0.2% | Close to high |
| Nasdaq 100 | +0.1% | Trailing modestly |
The futures change corresponds to approximately 14.9 index points at Wednesday’s level, leaving nearly 56.5 points to reach the record, excluding compounding and cash-market divergences. The calculation is important, as positioning appears constructive rather than euphoric.
| Record-distance measure | Level or change |
|---|---|
| Current S&P 500 value | 7,445.72 |
| All-time high | 7,517.12 |
| Difference in points | 71.40 |
| Gap in percentage | 0.95% |
| Futures move of 0.2% (points) | About 14.9 |
The first challenge is inflation. Analysts project that headline PPI growth will ease to 4.9% from June’s 5.5%. Last month’s index recorded a 0.3% decrease, led by a 1.4% drop in goods prices, while services posted an increase of 0.2%.
| Inflation measure | Latest or forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|
| July headline PPI, year on year | 4.9% consensus | 5.5% |
| June headline PPI, monthly change | -0.3% | +0.6% |
| June core PPI, minus food, energy and trade | +0.1% | +0.8% |
| July consumer inflation, annual rate | 3.4% | 3.5% |
Market expectations for rates have eased, with traders currently seeing a 65% chance the Fed will keep rates steady in September. This is up from a 50% likelihood prior to Wednesday’s data release. A PPI result in line with forecasts would support this new outlook.
Another boost comes from earnings. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar noted that AI infrastructure results “show no signs of slowdown in Capex.” Jefferies Financial Group NYSE:JEF stays overweight on the AI sector. Kumar also stated that strong liquidity, together with a Fed pause, “should continue to support risky assets.” Reuters
| Recent strategy advice | Recommendation | Target or reasoning | Potential rise from 7,445.72 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup NYSE:C | Constructive | 8,100 by year-end; 2026 EPS increased to $365 | 8.8% |
| Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS | Bullish | 8,300 twelve-month forecast | 11.5% |
| Jefferies Financial Group NYSE:JEF | Overweight AI | High capital expenditure and liquidity | Not disclosed |
The projections are varied. Citi’s target suggests significant potential gains, though its new $365 earnings estimate emphasizes the importance of profit growth. Morgan Stanley’s 8,300 target is also based on earnings, not on a richer valuation. That approach increases the risk if the company fails to meet guidance.
Applied Materials NASDAQ:AMAT is the next company under review. Its fiscal third-quarter earnings call is set for 16:30 EDT. The chip equipment manufacturer has previously stated its semiconductor-equipment unit could expand by over 30% this calendar year.
Global cues were mixed. Oil hovered around $88, with the dollar index climbing to a two-week peak around 100.01. Falling oil prices have the potential to reduce inflation risks, while a stronger dollar could weigh on translated overseas profits.
Risks: PPI is an initial reading and subject to updates. Limited premarket liquidity may amplify moves in futures. Oil shocks linked to Iran, a stronger dollar, or disappointing AI outlooks could counter the initial signal at the open.
The immediate bar is apparent. A 0.2% gain in futures alone won’t set a new record. Investors remain dependent on softer producer prices, steady yields, and earnings that support current high targets.
