U.S. stock-index futures were lower in early premarket trading Tuesday, as investors braced for a rare, high-impact stack of delayed government data that could reset expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy into 2026. The S&P 500 is coming off a modest dip to start the final full trading week of the year, but the bigger story is what hits the tape this morning: a long-awaited jobs report (with key gaps), delayed retail-sales figures, and S&P Global’s flash PMI readings.
Around 5:00 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were down roughly half a percent, reflecting a cautious tone heading into the 8:30 a.m. ET data releases. [1]
S&P 500 snapshot: where the index stands heading into Tuesday’s open
On Monday, the S&P 500 closed at 6,816.51, down 0.16%, as investors positioned for a data-heavy week and continued rotating away from pockets of mega-cap/AI leadership. [2]
Beneath the surface, the session was more nuanced than the headline move suggests:
- Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by health care. [3]
- Information technology lagged, pressured by notable single-stock moves tied to AI spending concerns and deal chatter. [4]
- Traders also weighed fresh Fed-chair succession speculation ahead of Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026, a storyline that has increasingly influenced rate-cut expectations and risk sentiment. [5]
S&P 500 futures premarket: what’s driving the early move
1) A “catch-up” economic calendar after the shutdown
Markets are heading into Tuesday with a key complication: the 43-day U.S. government shutdown disrupted data collection in ways Wall Street rarely has to price. Reuters reports that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing combined employment reports for October and November, but October’s unemployment rate will be missingbecause the household survey wasn’t conducted during the reference period. [6]
That’s not just trivia. It changes how investors interpret “soft landing” versus “re-acceleration,” because payrolls, unemployment, and wages typically move markets through the “Fed reaction function.”
2) Bond yields, oil, and global risk tone
Risk appetite also softened as global equities traded defensively ahead of U.S. data and several central bank events abroad. [7]
Meanwhile, oil prices slipped on optimism around possible Russia-Ukraine peace discussions and signs of weaker Chinese demand—moves that can ripple into U.S. energy shares and broader inflation expectations. Reuters cited Brent near $60.21 and WTI near $56.52 in early trading. [8]
The main event at 8:30 a.m. ET: jobs report and delayed retail sales
Jobs report today: what’s expected, and what’s missing
The BLS has signaled the Employment Situation for November is scheduled for release Tuesday, Dec. 16, at 8:30 a.m. ET. [9]
But because of the shutdown, the report structure is unusual. Reuters’ explainer highlights several key points investors are likely to focus on:
- October’s Employment Situation report was canceled, and parts of the October establishment survey are being incorporated into the November release. [10]
- No household survey data for October means no October unemployment rate—the first gap in that series since it began in 1948, according to Reuters. [11]
- For November, a Reuters survey of economists forecasts nonfarm payrolls +50,000, and unemployment at 4.4%. [12]
Why the market cares:
- A “hotter” payrolls print could push yields higher and weigh on stocks—especially rate-sensitive growth/tech.
- A “cooler” print could revive rate-cut optimism, but investors may also ask whether weaker hiring signals slowing demand into 2026.
Retail sales: delayed October data lands today
Retail sales are also in focus because the shutdown delayed publication schedules. The U.S. Census Bureau’s retail-release schedule notes that the October 2025 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services—originally slated for mid-November—was rescheduled to Dec. 16, 2025. [13]
Why it matters for the S&P 500: retail sales can quickly change the narrative for:
- consumer discretionary earnings expectations,
- inventory and pricing dynamics,
- and the “growth vs. inflation” balance that affects Fed pricing.
At 9:45 a.m. ET: Flash PMI could reshape the “soft landing” narrative
After the 8:30 a.m. wave, traders get another major read on momentum: S&P Global’s flash U.S. PMI reports for December. Investing.com’s economic calendar lists the U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET on Dec. 16. [14]
PMI data matters because it can confirm (or contradict) what’s showing up in:
- earnings commentary,
- job openings and hiring plans,
- and forward-looking order books.
If PMI strength persists while inflation data is incomplete, markets may lean more heavily on PMI as a real-time proxy for growth.
The CPI complication: Thursday’s inflation report arrives with “many gaps”
Inflation is still the market’s hinge variable—but this week’s CPI is not a standard CPI.
Reuters reports:
- The shutdown forced the BLS to cancel October’s CPI report.
- The November CPI report (due Thursday) will be published, but it’s unclear what October components will be available, and the release will have limitations where October observations are missing. [15]
That means Thursday’s CPI may generate more volatility than usual—not only because inflation drives Fed expectations, but because the market may debate data quality as much as data direction.
Sector and stock watch: AI rotation, health care strength, and headline risk
Even when the index barely moves, sector leadership can tell you what institutions are doing.
- Monday’s tape showed health care strength and technology weakness, a pattern consistent with investors trimming exposure to crowded AI “winners” while keeping overall risk on. [16]
- Reuters flagged ServiceNow sliding 11.5% on a report tied to potential M&A talks—an example of how deal headlines can overwhelm macro signals in thin year-end liquidity. [17]
- Several market summaries also pointed to continued sensitivity in AI-linked mega-caps (and adjacent names), with traders reacting quickly to capex narratives, margins, and positioning into 2026. [18]
What to watch today: if the jobs and retail numbers surprise, expect leadership to shift fast—especially between tech, financials, consumer cyclicals, and defensives.
Wall Street’s latest S&P 500 forecasts: 2026 targets span 7,100 to 8,100
A big part of “S&P 500 today” coverage in mid-December is that strategists are publishing year-ahead outlooks—and those calls can influence positioning and headline sentiment.
Here’s what’s newly in focus:
- Citigroup set a 2026 year-end S&P 500 target of 7,700, driven by expectations for earnings resilience and AI as a continuing theme, while warning about higher volatility as the bull market matures. [19]
- Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian has struck a more cautious tone, discussing a 7,100 year-end 2026 view (about a mid-single-digit gain) and arguing that multiple compression and less liquidity could cap upside even if earnings remain solid. [20]
- Oppenheimer remains among the most optimistic voices on the Street with an 8,100 year-end 2026 target (published earlier this month), reflecting a “bull market continues” base case tied to supportive fundamentals and earnings. [21]
- A sharply bearish counterpoint also exists: MarketWatch highlighted BCA Research arguing the AI boom could “turn to bust,” with a significantly lower S&P 500 path in its scenario analysis. [22]
What this means for today’s open:
When strategist targets cluster around “up, but volatile,” the market tends to trade like it—more headline sensitivity, faster sector rotations, and less tolerance for earnings disappointments or macro surprises.
What could move the S&P 500 after the open
With three major catalysts in a short window, Tuesday’s market reaction may come down to which risk dominates:
- Rates risk (higher yields)
If jobs/retail data beats expectations meaningfully, yields could rise and pressure the multiple—usually felt first in tech and other long-duration stocks. - Growth risk (slowing demand)
If data misses, equities could initially rally on rate-cut hopes, but then pivot to concerns about consumer demand and corporate revenue durability. - Data-quality risk
Given the shutdown disruptions, markets may react not just to the numbers, but to footnotes, revisions, and what’s missing—a theme Reuters emphasized across both employment and CPI reporting. [23]
Bottom line for S&P 500 today
As of early premarket Tuesday, S&P 500 futures are lower after Monday’s mild decline, with investors cautious ahead of a uniquely important—and unusually complicated—U.S. data slate. Between the delayed jobs report, delayed retail sales, and flash PMI, the market is about to get a condensed update on the U.S. economy just as 2026 outlooks roll in and Fed-policy expectations remain sensitive to every incremental datapoint. [24]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.cmegroup.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.bls.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.census.gov, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.oppenheimer.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.cmegroup.com
