As of 5:45 a.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, the S&P 500 is set up for a potentially volatile session: U.S. stock futures are modestly higher, but investors are walking into a rare combination of catalysts—a delayed inflation report shaped by the recent government shutdown, a packed slate of global central-bank decisions, and fresh earnings momentum from Micron after a bruising, tech-led selloff. [1]
Below is what’s driving the index today, what the latest forecasts and market commentary say, and which levels and events traders are watching most closely.
What happened last session: S&P 500 slid as the “AI trade” cracked again
The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 6,721.43, down 1.16%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.81% and the Dow dropped 0.47%—a move that left major indexes under pressure heading into the final stretch of the year. [2]
The story was familiar but increasingly consequential for index direction: AI-linked mega-caps and infrastructure beneficiaries fell hard, and their weight inside major benchmarks amplified the pullback. Reuters cited growing investor unease that AI infrastructure spending is rising faster than near-term returns, with strategists describing “fatigue” and “percolating anxiety” around the trade. [3]
Key movers tied to the AI theme included:
- Oracle down sharply after developments around a major data-center financing plan added to skepticism about big-ticket AI projects. [4]
- Nvidia among the biggest drags on the S&P 500, as AI leadership came under renewed scrutiny. [5]
Meanwhile, energy was a rare bright spot as oil rebounded amid Venezuela-related supply headlines, helping offset some of the broader risk-off tone. [6]
S&P 500 premarket tone: Futures up, but conviction looks cautious
Overnight and early Thursday, global markets steadied. Reuters reported U.S. stock futures up roughly 0.3%–0.6%, suggesting a tentative attempt to stabilize after Wednesday’s “wash-out,” even as investors brace for key macro releases and central-bank decisions. [7]
In other words: direction at the open may hinge less on “dip buying” and more on what comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET—and whether the data reduces (or reinforces) uncertainty around inflation and rates.
The main event: November CPI arrives—without the usual monthly detail
When is CPI released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the November 2025 CPI release for Dec. 18, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET. [8]
Why today’s CPI is unusual
Because the 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted data collection, economists and policy watchers are dealing with an inflation print that won’t include standard month-to-month changes. Reuters reported that:
- October CPI was canceled because prices couldn’t be collected retroactively.
- November CPI will largely be framed through year-over-year readings, alongside a smaller set of publishable components. [9]
The Washington Post similarly noted economists will be forced to parse remaining category detail (like shelter and services) for clues on underlying momentum in the absence of clean sequential comparisons. [10]
CPI forecast (what economists expect)
According to a Reuters survey preview:
- Headline CPI is forecast at +3.1% year over year
- Core CPI is forecast at +3.0% year over year [11]
One wrinkle: because data collection was delayed later into the month, some economists warned discounts late in November could temporarily depress certain goods categories—potentially creating “noise” that markets may debate for weeks. [12]
Why CPI still matters even if the Fed is focused on jobs
Markets are trying to price two narratives at once:
- Inflation is sticky, potentially worsened by import tariffs being passed into consumer prices (per economists cited by Reuters). [13]
- The labor market is cooling, which could keep pressure on the Fed to ease further even if inflation isn’t fully “solved.” [14]
Reuters also highlighted that Fed officials cut rates by 25 bps last week to a 3.50%–3.75% range while signaling caution about near-term additional cuts. [15]
And in an important framing for today: a Pepperstone strategist told Reuters CPI may not move expectations as much as usual because the Fed’s “reaction function” is seen as leaning toward supporting a slowing labor market. [16]
Other U.S. data to watch today: jobless claims and regional factory signals
Beyond CPI, traders will be scanning high-frequency labor and manufacturing indicators for confirmation that growth is cooling (or stabilizing).
- Weekly initial jobless claims: CME’s economic calendar showed a 225,000 consensus versus 236,000 previously. [17]
- Philadelphia Fed survey: flagged as part of the day’s macro lineup by market briefings, alongside claims and CPI. [18]
With year-end liquidity thinning, even “second tier” releases can move rates quickly—and rate moves still matter for the S&P 500’s valuation-sensitive sectors.
Global central banks in focus: BoE decision, ECB decision, BoJ watch
Thursday isn’t just “CPI day.” It’s also a major global rates day:
- Bank of England: Reuters reported markets are braced for a rate cut to 3.75% from 4.0%, following softer UK inflation data and slower growth signals. [19]
- European Central Bank: widely expected to hold steady, per Reuters and market briefs. [20]
- Bank of Japan: investors are watching Friday for a potential hike and guidance on 2026 tightening pace. [21]
Why this matters for the S&P 500: central-bank divergence can move the dollar, shift global risk appetite, and influence U.S. yields—channels that feed directly into large-cap earnings expectations and equity multiples.
Earnings and company catalysts: Micron lifts the tone, Nike and FedEx up next
Micron: a bullish AI-demand signal for semis (and the broader index)
Micron delivered a standout update, and Reuters reported the stock was up about 9% in premarket trading after the chipmaker issued an outsized profit forecast, tied to tight supply and booming demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI data centers. [22]
Why it matters for “S&P 500 today”: after the index’s AI-led selloff, Micron’s guidance offers a counterweight—evidence that the AI buildout is still translating into real revenue momentum for key suppliers, even as investors debate whether spending levels are sustainable.
Nike, FedEx, Accenture: headline reports later today
Today’s earnings calendar is busy for market-moving brands, with major reports expected from Nike, FedEx, and Accenture, among others. [23]
Nike’s investor relations calendar lists its Q2 FY26 earnings call on Dec. 18, 2025, and Nasdaq’s earnings page also points to a report after the market close. [24]
These reports matter because they can shift the conversation away from “AI-only market” leadership—especially if guidance impacts consumer spending, shipping demand, and enterprise IT budgets.
Technical and positioning watch: where the S&P 500 is vulnerable (and where it could bounce)
With the index coming off a sharp drop, technicians are focused on whether the S&P 500 can reclaim key trend levels.
A Refinitiv/Reuters technical note highlighted:
- The 50-day moving average area around 6,765 as a widely watched intermediate trend line
- The 100-day moving average area around 6,635 as a potential next downside test if weakness persists
- Overhead hurdles near 6,965 (a weekly Gann line area cited in the note) and the 7,000 psychological level [25]
Separately, market coverage emphasized that the index’s latest decline pushed it into a more fragile technical posture after repeated tests of support. [26]
Volatility snapshot
Saxo’s Dec. 18 market quick take said the VIX rose to 17.62 and short-term volatility gauges jumped sharply as traders positioned for CPI and central-bank risk. Saxo also cited an options-implied S&P 500 expected move of about ±76 points (±1.1%) through Friday’s expiry—a useful yardstick for how wide today’s trading range could get. [27]
Forecasts and market outlooks circulating today: Santa rally hopes vs. rotation risk
Even with volatility elevated, “year-end seasonality” is still part of the debate.
- Santa/Christmas rally playbook: An Investing.com analysis cited Stock Trader’s Almanac data showing the late-December “Christmas rally” window has historically delivered above-average gains since 1950 (while also acknowledging there’s no single proven cause). [28]
- Rotation thesis: Yardeni QuickTakes (Dec. 18) argued its 7,000 year-end target is effectively achieved, noting the S&P 500’s record close around 6,901 on Dec. 11, while warning that a continued rotation away from the “Magnificent Seven” toward the broader market could make a classic melt-up harder to sustain into year-end. [29]
The takeaway for “S&P 500 today”: seasonal tailwinds may exist, but the market is currently trading more like it’s in a narrative transition—from AI concentration to broader participation—while also trying to map policy risk onto incomplete economic data.
What to watch when the market opens
Here are the catalysts most likely to swing the S&P 500 today:
- 8:30 a.m. ET — CPI (year-over-year focus): does inflation print hotter than expected, and do the underlying categories (especially shelter/services) change the narrative? [30]
- 8:30 a.m. ET — Jobless claims: do claims confirm labor-market softening, reinforcing “Fed support,” or do they surprise the other way? [31]
- Semis and AI complex: can Micron’s strong guidance stabilize sentiment, or does “AI capex anxiety” keep pressure on the largest index weights? [32]
- Rates and the dollar: U.S. yields have been moving on growth/inflation cross-currents; any sharp repricing can ripple through tech valuations quickly. [33]
- BoE/ECB headlines and global risk appetite: central-bank messaging can move currencies and spill into U.S. equity futures during the session. [34]
If you want, I can also rewrite this in a stricter wire-service format (shorter paragraphs, more attribution up top) or tailor it for a specific publisher voice (finance-first like Reuters-style vs. consumer-first like Yahoo Finance/AP).
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.bls.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.washingtonpost.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.washingtonpost.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.cmegroup.com, 18. www.home.saxo, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.home.saxo, 24. investors.nike.com, 25. www.tradingview.com, 26. www.investors.com, 27. www.home.saxo, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.yardeniquicktakes.com, 30. www.bls.gov, 31. www.cmegroup.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com
