Wall Street is trying to find its footing on Friday, November 21, 2025, after one of the wildest weeks for the S&P 500 since the spring. The benchmark index is hovering just above Thursday’s close, with traders torn between fresh hopes for a near‑term Federal Reserve rate cut and growing unease over stretched tech valuations. [1]
S&P 500 Today: Modest Gains After a Brutal Reversal
The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 6,538.76, down 1.6% on the day, a 103‑point slide that erased an intraday gain of nearly 2% and marked one of the sharpest single‑session reversals of 2025. [2]
On Friday:
- Earlier in the New York session, the S&P 500 traded around 6,558, up about 0.3%, according to Reuters. [3]
- Later in the day, it was barely positive, up about 0.04% at 6,541.66, while the Dow advanced more firmly and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq slipped into the red. [4]
In other words, it’s a classic “inside day” so far: the index is oscillating around flat, with mild gains relative to Thursday’s close but still down meaningfully for the week.
Multiple outlets note that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for their steepest weekly losses since the spring, when new U.S. tariffs rattled risk appetite. [5]
The Big Story: Fed Rate-Cut Odds Jump After Williams’ Comments
The main macro story driving the S&P 500 today is the sudden repricing of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
What changed?
New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that interest rates can still be cut “in the near term” without jeopardizing the central bank’s 2% inflation target, calling current policy “modestly restrictive” and suggesting there is room to move closer to neutral. [6]
Those remarks landed in a market already digesting:
- An October 25 bps rate cut, the Fed’s second consecutive reduction amid slowing growth and a softening labor market. [7]
- A September jobs report (released with a long delay due to the government shutdown) that showed unemployment edging up to 4.4%, even as payroll growth remained solid. [8]
How markets reacted
- Fed‑funds futures now put the odds of a 25 bp cut at the December 9–10 meeting at roughly 60–70%, up from around 30–40% just a day ago, according to multiple estimates based on CME FedWatch data. [9]
- Treasury yields dropped to three‑week lows, with the 10‑year yield around 4.06%, marking its biggest weekly decline in weeks. [10]
Lower yields tend to support equity valuations, especially in long‑duration growth stocks, and they helped the S&P 500 stabilize after Thursday’s rout. But the rate story is far from straightforward.
Hawk vs. dove at the Fed
Not everyone at the Fed is on board with another cut:
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins said current rates look “very appropriate right now,” signaling she’s hesitant to ease further given still‑elevated inflation. [11]
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued for keeping rates on hold “for a time” until the economy’s response to earlier cuts is clearer, even reiterating that she opposed the October cut. [12]
- On the other side, Fed Governor Stephen Miran has repeatedly pushed for larger cuts and suggested he’d support a quarter‑point move if his vote were decisive in avoiding damage to the economy. [13]
This tug‑of‑war inside the Fed is a big reason why the S&P 500 is trading nervously rather than decisively higher today.
Tech and AI Stocks: From Hero to Headwind
The second major theme for the S&P 500 today is tech and AI volatility.
Nvidia’s whiplash
Chipmaker Nvidia, a key driver of 2025’s AI rally, reported strong quarterly results, but its stock staged a dramatic reversal on Thursday: up as much as 5% intraday before closing sharply lower. [14]
That move:
- Triggered a brutal tech‑led selloff that dragged the S&P 500 from strong gains to a 1.6% loss by the close. [15]
- Fueled concerns that AI‑linked valuations have become stretched, leaving the market vulnerable to any wobble in earnings or guidance. [16]
Friday morning has brought some stabilization. Reuters reports that most mega‑cap growth names are modestly higher, but the Nasdaq remains under pressure and global chip stocks have been weak across Europe and Asia. [17]
From narrow leadership to broad anxiety
For months, a handful of AI and “Magnificent 7” stocks carried much of the S&P 500’s gains. Now:
- Investors are increasingly questioning whether AI spending can deliver profits fast enough to justify lofty multiples. [18]
- U.S. and global equities are set to finish the week lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq facing their worst weekly declines since the spring tariff shock. [19]
That shift from euphoria to skepticism is a big reason the index isn’t rallying harder on dovish Fed headlines.
Sector Snapshot: Who’s Driving the S&P 500?
Under the hood, today’s trade is very much a defensives vs. growth story.
Weekly pain points
- Information technology and consumer discretionary are set for the steepest weekly declines among S&P 500 sectors, according to Reuters, as investors rotate away from high‑beta names most exposed to the AI boom and consumer softness. [20]
- Yesterday’s slide saw tech, energy, communication services, industrials, materials and consumer discretionary all finishing sharply in the red. [21]
Today’s relative winners
Intraday sector data suggest:
- Defensive groups such as utilities, healthcare and consumer staples are holding up relatively well as investors seek earnings stability and dividends in a choppy tape. [22]
- Financials are mixed: lower long‑term yields pressure banks’ net interest margins, but the prospect of a more growth‑friendly Fed path later in 2026 is preventing a full‑blown selloff. [23]
For the S&P 500 overall, the net effect is a slight upward bias, but not enough to undo the damage earlier in the week.
Other Market Drivers the S&P 500 Is Reacting To
1. Global risk sentiment and crypto stress
U.S. stocks are moving within a broader risk‑off environment:
- Global equity benchmarks in Europe and Asia have fallen, with MSCI’s Asia‑Pacific index and major regional markets like Japan and Taiwan down sharply on the week. [24]
- Bitcoin has dropped around 5% and Ethereum even more, as investors trim riskier holdings amid uncertainty over Fed policy and tech valuations. [25]
For S&P 500 traders, crypto and credit markets are sending the same message as Treasuries: the economy may need more support, but the path to it is bumpy.
2. Mixed economic data and tariff drag
The macro backdrop is muddy:
- The delayed September jobs report showed strong job gains but a higher unemployment rate, suggesting a labor market that is cooling at the edges but not collapsing. [26]
- A fresh business survey for November showed factory activity slowing to a four‑month low, with tariffs cited as a key driver of higher input prices. [27]
This combination—slower growth, sticky inflation and policy uncertainty—helps explain why the S&P 500 is struggling to extend its rally despite falling yields.
3. Black Friday and the consumer
With Black Friday and the holiday shopping season kicking off, investors are laser‑focused on U.S. consumer strength:
- Futures trade earlier today showed S&P 500 contracts slightly negative, with Dow futures modestly positive and Nasdaq futures under heavier pressure, as markets weighed a crucial test of consumer demand against tech valuation worries. TechStock²
- Within the S&P 500, retailers and e‑commerce names in the consumer discretionary sector are particularly sensitive to any sign that higher rates and tariffs are starting to bite household budgets. [28]
Robust spending would help justify earnings expectations baked into current S&P 500 forecasts; a weak start to the season could reinforce the bearish narrative.
Stock Stories Inside the Index
A few high‑profile names are shaping sentiment around the S&P 500 today:
- Eli Lilly briefly became the first drugmaker to reach a $1 trillion market cap, riding booming demand for its weight‑loss drugs. That milestone underscores how healthcare and pharma have emerged as alternative “growth defensives” alongside classic utilities. [29]
- Intuit is trading higher after the software company forecast revenue growth above expectations, a bright spot within tech that shows not all growth names are being treated equally. [30]
These stories matter because they signal where investors are willing to keep paying up for earnings visibility, even as they de‑risk elsewhere.
What Today’s S&P 500 Action Means for Investors
Even if Friday ends with only a tiny move in the S&P 500, the message from the week is loud:
- The Fed is back at center stage.
Markets are once again trading off every nuance from Fed officials. A December cut is now seen as more likely than not, but the messaging remains mixed, and that uncertainty is driving volatility in both bonds and equities. [31] - Tech leadership is being questioned.
After months of AI‑driven outperformance, the violent swings in Nvidia and other mega‑caps are forcing a rethink of how much growth investors are willing to pre‑pay for. That’s why the S&P 500 is struggling to rally even as yields fall. [32] - Breadth and quality matter more.
With information technology and consumer discretionary leading weekly declines and defensives holding up, the market is rewarding balance sheets, stable cash flows and consistent dividends more than “story stocks.” [33] - Global and cross‑asset signals can’t be ignored.
Sliding global equities, weaker crypto prices and falling bond yields are all telling a similar story: investors expect slower growth and easier policy ahead, but they’re not sure how bumpy that path will be. [34]
For now, the S&P 500 on November 21, 2025 is caught between optimism about a friendlier Fed and anxiety that the AI‑led rally has come too far too fast. How those opposing forces resolve—especially around the December Fed meeting and the holiday spending season—will set the tone for the rest of the year.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.ainvest.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.benzinga.com, 23. www.tradealgo.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com
