New York, Jan 18, 2026, 17:27 ET — Market closed
- In a court filing, Elon Musk is demanding up to $134 billion from OpenAI and Microsoft, casting doubt over a possible OpenAI IPO
- OpenAI plans to trial ads in ChatGPT as SpaceX’s Starlink undergoes a high-profile security challenge amid Iran’s crackdown
- U.S. markets reopen Tuesday following the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, as investors weigh IPO sentiment and potential legal risks
Elon Musk ramped up his legal battle against OpenAI on Friday, aiming to claim up to $134 billion from the ChatGPT creator and its major backer, Microsoft. This move clouds an IPO timeline many investors have targeted for 2026. At the same time, bankers are pushing SpaceX, Musk’s other private giant, as a potential candidate for going public. (Reuters)
Why it matters now: U.S. stocks finished nearly unchanged on Friday ahead of a long weekend, with investors holding back on major moves despite the surge in earnings reports. The Dow dipped 0.17%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each edged down 0.06%, according to a Reuters tally. (Reuters)
Demand for new listings hasn’t faded yet, at least judging by the tape. The Renaissance IPO ETF, tracking recent and upcoming IPOs, climbed roughly 0.9% on Friday to close at $48.14, its sponsor reported. (Renaissance Capital IPO ETFs)
OpenAI’s latest move centers on revenue. The company plans to start testing ads within ChatGPT for some U.S. users on its free tier and the cheaper Go plan in the coming weeks. Importantly, these ads won’t interfere with chatbot responses, and user conversations won’t be shared with advertisers. Jeremy Goldman, an analyst at Emarketer, cautioned that if the ads come across as “clumsy or opportunistic,” users might jump to competitors like Google’s Gemini or Anthropic’s Claude. (Reuters)
OpenAI is also preparing for a possible public offering, with sources telling Reuters it has considered filing as early as the latter half of 2026, though those plans remain tentative. At the time, an OpenAI spokesperson emphasized that an IPO wasn’t the priority, saying the company is focused on creating a “durable business.” (Reuters)
SpaceX’s immediate investor pitch is less about tweaking prices and more about showing toughness. Starlink now faces what Reuters calls one of its toughest security challenges yet, as Iran uses jammers and fake GPS signals to disrupt satellite service. This comes after SpaceX made Starlink free for Iranians amid a government crackdown. John Plumb, former Pentagon space policy chief, told Reuters, “We’re in this weird early part” where SpaceX stands as the only provider operating at this scale. (Reuters)
Competition isn’t waiting around. On Friday, European satellite operator Eutelsat announced a multi-launch deal with France’s MaiaSpace for its upcoming low-Earth-orbit satellite launches, as Europe pushes to close the gap with SpaceX. Eutelsat, which owns OneWeb—the only other operational LEO constellation besides Starlink—made the announcement. (Reuters)
SpaceX has its sights set on 2026 for a possible IPO, according to a staff memo from Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen. He told employees the company is gearing up for a public offering but warned that both timing and valuation remain uncertain and will hinge on market conditions, Reuters reported last December. (Reuters)
Public markets continue to use the “AI complex” as a key sentiment gauge. On Friday, Microsoft shares rose roughly 0.7%, while Nvidia dipped around 0.5%, LSEG data shows.
Which IPO holds more promise for 2026? Based on recent headlines, SpaceX comes across as the tidier equity story — a capital-intensive player with a vast satellite network actively tested in real conditions and a more defined 2026 target. OpenAI, meanwhile, offers a faster-paced software growth story, but it’s still reshaping its business model openly, and legal uncertainties around it have intensified.
The downside is clear. OpenAI’s ad experiment risks alienating users, especially if rivals push an “ad-free” angle. Musk’s lawsuit adds a legal wild card Wall Street struggles to price in. SpaceX, selling to government and regulated sectors, now faces Starlink caught in geopolitical disputes that could spark policy retaliation or disrupt operations.
Markets will be closed Monday, Jan. 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day and will resume trading Tuesday, Jan. 20. Investors are focused on updates about OpenAI’s ad pilot as it unfolds over the coming weeks, along with key legal developments leading up to the April trial date. Meanwhile, any indication that SpaceX is moving beyond preparatory discussions toward an official filing will also draw attention. (Sifma)
