New York, June 14, 2026, 07:37 (EDT)
- SpaceX ended its first day of trading at $160.95, climbing 19% over its $135 IPO price and giving it a market cap of around $2.1 trillion. If the shares double from here, they’d reach about $321.90.
- Options trading could start as early as Tuesday, with the company’s first quarterly results and possible index additions up next.
- Bulls point to Starlink, SpaceX’s lead in launches, and its push into AI-in-space. Bears flag the stock’s price, losses, and the risk it can’t deliver.
SpaceX’s jump to public markets has shifted the conversation from private valuations to a live ticker: can the stock double by end-2027? The math says maybe, but it’s a stretch. Reuters said SpaceX shares surged 19% on their Nasdaq open Friday, closing at $160.95 after a $75 billion IPO, the biggest ever. That set the company’s value at about $2.1 trillion. To double, the price tag would need to hit nearly $4.2 trillion in about 18 months.
That’s important because stocks go up when buyers pay more for future cash flows — the profit left after costs — and when there are more buyers than sellers. Shares drop when growth hopes cool, losses get tougher to reverse, higher rates eat into future gains, or investors figure prices have too much good news built in. SpaceX is seeing both sides: strong demand after a rare IPO, but also a high valuation that leaves little margin for missteps.
Bullish bets on SpaceX are big. The company puts its market opportunity at $28.5 trillion and claims it has put more than 80% of the total mass into orbit in the last three years, Reuters said. Investors draw a recurring-revenue angle from Starlink, the satellite internet unit. Starship, SpaceX’s heavy-lift reusable rocket built for more than 100 metric tonnes to orbit, sits at the core of cost cuts for launches and the company’s future satellite, lunar, and Mars targets.
Valuation is the main worry for bears. SpaceX had $18.7 billion in revenue, Reuters said, which puts its price-to-revenue ratio near 112. That measures how much investors are willing to pay for every $1 in sales. According to the same Reuters piece, SpaceX is not profitable right now. Reuters also reported over $4 billion in annual losses last year. Morningstar’s analysts say fair value is about $780 billion. That’s much less than where shares landed after the IPO. CFRA began coverage with a sell rating.
Wall Street isn’t on the same page when it comes to valuing SpaceX. It’s not trading like a typical aerospace or telecom firm. “This is not a name you’re buying based on fundamentals. For me, the analogy is Amazon. This was a company that changed the way we live,” Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments, said to Reuters. The bulls argue that if SpaceX can turn Starlink, launch services, Starship and its AI space work into real cash engines, the current valuation won’t look so stretched. Reuters
SpaceX options are set to hit the market as soon as Tuesday, and traders are bracing for a surge in activity. Reuters said the Cboe is prepping for launch, and sources expect heavy demand for contracts that let investors buy or sell shares at fixed prices. “I expect explosive demand,” Capital Market Laboratories CEO Ophir Gottlieb told Reuters. All eyes are now on how SpaceX trades with fresh tools and possibly new forced buyers, not just another rocket launch. Investors are also watching for SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings as a public company and talk of big index moves. Reuters
Index inclusion may help the stock as index-tracking funds might have to buy in, creating a flow-driven boost. But that doesn’t mean the business is more valuable. Reuters said Nasdaq has changed its rules to make it easier for SpaceX to join the Nasdaq 100. MSCI plans early inclusion for big IPOs, but S&P Global won’t allow fast-track entry into the S&P 500. If rising index demand meets a tight float, shares could surge. Early investors selling into that demand could send it down just as fast.
SpaceX is risky on the facts right now, not clearly cheap or fairly priced. Doubling by the end of 2027 would mean buyers sticking with a premium for Musk’s leadership, Starlink, Starship, and possible AI in space, all before profit shows up on public-market terms. The stock still has appeal for investors able to live with big swings who think SpaceX can make markets others miss, but the price already bakes in big success. The first quarterly results, options listing, and index entry are the first real checks on whether the post-IPO pop can last.
