Spotify Stock Jumps on Music‑Video Launch: What to Know Before the December 10, 2025 Open

Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT) finished Tuesday, December 9, 2025, solidly higher after formally launching music videos for Premium subscribers in the U.S. and Canada — a long‑telegraphed move that pushes the company deeper into video and closer into competition with YouTube.

Below is a concise rundown of how SPOT traded after the bell, what drove the move, and the key forecasts and fresh analyses investors should have on their radar before the market opens on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.

How Spotify Stock Traded After the Bell on December 9

Closing and after‑hours action

SPOT closed on December 9 at $589.67, up about 3.0% on the day, after trading between roughly $574 and $596 and turning over just over 3 million shares, according to StockAnalysis data. ^[1]
In after‑hours trading, the stock barely budged: Public.com data shows SPOT changing hands around $589.56 at 6:30 p.m. ET, down just $0.11 (-0.02%) from the regular close, with an after‑hours range of $589.56–$591.00. ^[2]

That combination — a strong regular‑session rally followed by flat extended trading — suggests the market largely digested the music‑video news during the cash session, with no major incremental headlines after 4 p.m. to move the stock further.

Where SPOT sits in the bigger picture

Barchart’s recap pegs Spotify’s 52‑week high at $785 (June 27, 2025), meaning shares are still roughly 25% below their peak, even after Tuesday’s bounce. ^[3]
Year‑to‑date, the stock is still up around 27%, reflecting a big rerating earlier in 2025 on profitability and margin improvement. ^[4]

In other words: SPOT is in recovery mode — well off its highs but far from depressed — and Tuesday’s news‑driven pop came against a backdrop of already‑elevated expectations.

The Big Catalyst: Music Videos Hit U.S. and Canada

What Spotify announced

On Tuesday, Spotify confirmed that music videos are rolling out in beta to Premium subscribers in the U.S. and Canada, following a beta launch across nearly 100 overseas markets last year. ^[5]

Key details from Reuters, TechCrunch and The Verge:

Availability:
- Feature is limited to Premium subscribers (paying users).
- Works on iOS, Android, desktop and TV apps. ^[6]
How it works:
- Users will see a “Switch to video” option on supported tracks; the music video picks up where the audio left off, and you can jump back to “Switch to audio” at any time. ^[7]
Initial catalog:
- Launch lineup includes artists like Ariana Grande, Olivia Dean, BABYMONSTER, Addison Rae, Tyler Childers, Natanael Cano and Carín León. ^[8]
Geographic reach:
- In addition to the U.S. and Canada, music videos are also expanding to a handful of smaller markets such as Antigua and Barbuda, Jamaica, Ghana and Venezuela, broadening the beta footprint. ^[9]

Spotify is also planning video‑specific playlists (e.g., 90s Video Hits, Hip‑Hop Throwbacks, Latin Party Hits) and a “Related Music Videos” section that replaces lyrics while in video mode, mimicking YouTube or TikTok‑style discovery but restricted to official, artist‑created content. ^[10]

Why it matters for the stock

Management and reporters highlighted two important data points:

When users discover a track with an attached music video, they are 34% more likely to stream it again and 24% more likely to save or share it the following week, according to Spotify. ^[11]
The rollout lands just after “Wrapped 2025” engagement surged — over 200 million users engaged within ~24 hours, up 19% year‑on‑year. ^[12]

For investors, this has several implications:

Deeper engagement: Richer video experiences can keep users in‑app longer, which supports higher ad impressions and stickier subscription behavior.
Competitive positioning: Video helps SPOT compete more directly with YouTube, especially among younger users who already expect visual formats. ^[13]
Licensing leverage & new formats:
- Spotify has built out audiovisual rights deals with major labels and the National Music Publishers’ Association (NMPA), enabling direct AV licensing in the U.S. and expanded monetization options. ^[14]
- Video opens the door to new ad formats and sponsorships that can carry better margins than standard audio ads. ^[15]

This isn’t just a shiny front‑end feature; it ties into Spotify’s broader effort to transform from an audio app into a multi‑format media platform spanning music, podcasts, audiobooks and now video.

Fresh Research on December 9: Optimism vs. Valuation Worries

A cluster of new or updated analyses hit on December 9, giving investors a more nuanced picture of the risk‑reward.

1. Zacks: “Wall Street Bulls Look Optimistic About Spotify (SPOT)”

Zacks published a note titled “Wall Street Bulls Look Optimistic About Spotify (SPOT): Should You Buy?”, emphasizing that:

Sell‑side analysts remain overwhelmingly positive on the stock.
However, Zacks warns against blindly following ratings and encourages investors to weigh valuation, earnings momentum and risk factors rather than relying solely on consensus recommendations. ^[16]

In short, Zacks flags bullish sentiment, but frames the decision as a classic “great company, debate about the price” setup.

2. Barchart: “Should You Buy Spotify Stock Ahead of Its Big Music Video Push?”

A detailed Barchart column from December 8 — very much in focus on the 9th as the rollout went live — digs into both the fundamentals and the new video strategy. ^[17]

Highlights:

Q3 2025 (reported November 4) showed:
- 713 million MAUs, up 11% year‑on‑year.
- 281 million Premium subscribers, up 12% year‑on‑year.
- Revenue of roughly €4.3 billion (~$5B), +12% YoY.
- Gross margin of 31.6%, beating guidance.
- Operating income of €582 million and record free cash flow of €806 million, underscoring stronger profitability. ^[18]
For Q4 2025, Spotify is guiding to 745 million MAUs, 289 million Premium subs, about €4.5 billion in revenue and gross margin near 32.9%. ^[19]
Analysts referenced in the piece expect EPS to climb to about $7.72 in 2025 and nearly $14.20 in 2026, implying rapid earnings scaling if execution continues. ^[20]

On the flip side, Barchart notes that:

SPOT trades at a steep premium, roughly 70–75x forward earnings,
The stock is still about 20%+ below its recent highs, despite big gains earlier in the year. ^[21]

Barchart ultimately frames Spotify as fundamentally strong but priced for continued flawless execution — a theme echoed in other December 9 research.

3. Seeking Alpha: “Growth Is Solid, But the Valuation Limits Immediate Upside”

A new Seeking Alpha article on December 9 comes down more cautiously:

The author rates Spotify a “Hold” with a $623 price target — only around 10% upside from current levels. ^[22]
The core argument: Spotify’s operational and margin progress is real, but the stock already discounts much of that improvement, leaving limited near‑term multiple expansion potential.

This piece is important because it directly challenges the more aggressive 30–35% upside scenarios implied by Street price targets.

4. Simply Wall St: Video Push Adds Sizzle, Not a New Thesis

Simply Wall St released a narrative‑style note, “How Investors Are Reacting to Spotify Technology (SPOT) Expanding Wrapped and Pushing Deeper Into Video Platforms,” on December 9. ^[23]

Key takeaways:

The article argues that owning SPOT still hinges on believing Spotify can convert its huge user base into durable, profitable growth while keeping content costs manageable.
The Wrapped 2025 campaign and the video expansion are seen as tools to deepen engagement and enhance higher‑margin revenue streams (ads, multi‑format bundles), but don’t fundamentally change the near‑term margin story. ^[24]
Their model projects Spotify could reach €23.8 billion in revenue and €3.4 billion in earnings by 2028, implying about 12.8% annual revenue growth from current levels. That yields an estimated “fair value” around $748.60 per share, roughly 31% above recent prices. ^[25]

Simply Wall St also notes that community valuation estimates span roughly $391–$914, underscoring how widely opinions differ on what Spotify should be worth. ^[26]

5. MarketBeat and technical/quant views

MarketBeat’s December 9 “Streaming Stocks to Consider” piece reiterates that Spotify carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus but notes that some top‑rated analysts currently prefer other names in the space. ^[27]
Danelfin’s AI model gives SPOT an 8/10 “Buy” score, estimating a roughly 63% chance of beating the market over the next three months, and cites an average analyst target near $767.77. ^[28]

Together, the December 9 research flow paints a split picture:

Bulls argue that Spotify is now a scaled, profitable platform with multiple new monetization levers (price hikes, premium tiers, video, ads).
Skeptics worry that at current prices, valuation leaves less room for error, especially if 2026 growth slows or consumer pressure on subscriptions intensifies. ^[29]

What the Street Is Pricing In Right Now

Leaving aside individual articles, the aggregated forecast picture as of December 9 looks like this:

StockAnalysis.com:
- 27 analysts: consensus rating “Buy”.
- Average 12‑month price target: ~$761, implying about 29% upside from recent levels.
- Target range: $550–$900. ^[30]
MarketBeat:
- 33 analysts over the past year: consensus “Moderate Buy.”
- Average target: ~$759, roughly 28% above a reference price near $591.
- Target range: $545–$900. ^[31]
ValueInvesting.io & Public:
- Average 12‑month targets cluster around $770–$772, implying ~30–35% upside, with some models showing Street‑high targets above $1,000. ^[32]
MarketWatch’s analyst‑estimate page shows a somewhat lower average target around $659 with an “Overweight” recommendation, reflecting a mix of older and more conservative forecasts. ^[33]

Takeaway:

Consensus still points to double‑digit upside — often 25–35% — but there is a growing minority of voices arguing that the easy rerating may already be behind Spotify.

Strategy & Fundamentals Heading Into 2026

While Tuesday’s move was about music videos, the broader 2025–2026 setup for Spotify matters just as much before the next open:

Profitability and cost discipline:
- Earlier this year, Reuters reported that Spotify achieved its first full‑year profit, helped by significant cost cuts and price increases, and guided to earnings above expectations. ^[34]
Leadership transition:
- Founder‑CEO Daniel Ek will become executive chairman in January 2026, while long‑time executives Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström move into co‑CEO roles — a shift outlined in a September Reuters explainer. ^[35]
Price hikes and tiering strategy:
- Spotify has already raised Premium prices in more than 150 markets in 2025 and is expected to raise U.S. subscription prices again in early 2026, according to the Financial Times reporting cited by Reuters and follow‑up coverage from CNET and TechCrunch. ^[36]
- Bernstein and other analysts highlighted the rollout of a Premium Platinum tier in several Asia‑Pacific markets (HiFi, AI DJ, extra perks) as a way to tap “superfans” and add pricing power. ^[37]
Product velocity beyond video:
- Recent updates include in‑app messaging, expanded free‑tier capabilities and more discovery tools, all aimed at boosting engagement and ad inventory. ^[38]

All of this feeds into the pre‑market narrative: Spotify is no longer a simple growth‑at‑any‑cost story, but a company trying to balance profitability, product expansion and premium pricing — with valuation now front and center.

Before the December 10 Open: 5 Things Investors Should Watch

Here’s a practical checklist for traders and longer‑term investors heading into Wednesday’s session.

1. Pre‑market price and volume

After Tuesday’s 3% regular‑session gain and flat after‑hours move, the first question is whether fresh overnight coverage of the video launch and analyst notes sparks:

Follow‑through buying (pushing SPOT further above $590), or
“Sell the news” profit‑taking, especially from traders who were positioned ahead of the widely anticipated feature.

Watch early pre‑market quotes and volume to gauge whether institutional money is still adding or trimming into strength. ^[39]

2. Key technical levels

MarketBeat and other data providers highlight that: ^[40]

SPOT’s 50‑day moving average sits around the low $640s,
The 200‑day moving average is closer to the upper $670s, and
The 12‑month low/high range (~$443–$785) still frames the stock’s volatility profile.

Near‑term, traders will be watching whether SPOT:

Holds above recent support in the mid‑$570s (last week’s closes), and
Can build a base that eventually challenges the $600–$620 zone, which may act as a resistance area given prior trading.

3. Evolving narrative on valuation

Tuesday’s research flow set up a tug‑of‑war:

Pro‑Spotify camp: points to accelerating profits, price hikes, product innovation and the new video opportunity, with average targets around $760–$770. ^[41]
Cautious camp: stresses that at ~70x forward earnings and ~30% implied upside, the stock may not offer a huge margin of safety, especially if macro conditions or user growth disappoint. ^[42]

Watch for additional notes or rating changes Wednesday morning that lean toward one side or the other — especially from large banks or brokers that haven’t updated their models since the Q3 print.

4. Sentiment on the video rollout itself

Investors will also track:

Early user feedback (social chatter, tech press follow‑ups) on the quality and depth of the music‑video catalog.
Any clarity from labels or Spotify on revenue‑sharing for video streams — a key factor in whether this is margin‑accretive or mostly an engagement tool. ^[43]

So far, coverage from outlets like TechCrunch, The Verge, Deadline and others has been broadly positive, framing the move as a logical next step in Spotify’s long‑teased video ambitions. ^[44]

5. Broader market and macro backdrop

Finally, remember SPOT is a high‑beta growth stock (beta around 1.6–1.7), meaning its moves often amplify the broader tech and growth tape. ^[45]

If Wednesday’s session is risk‑off — for example due to interest‑rate jitters or macro headlines — Spotify could give back some of Tuesday’s gains regardless of company‑specific news. Conversely, a strong tape can magnify positive sentiment around the video launch.

Bottom Line: Spotify After the Bell and Into the Next Session

As of the close and after‑hours trade on December 9, 2025, Spotify sits at the crossroads of:

A tangible new product milestone (music videos in the U.S. and Canada),
Improving profitability and guidance, and
A valuation debate that is becoming more vocal as the stock climbs.

Most Wall Street models and narrative‑driven analyses published on or around December 9 still see meaningful upside over the next 12 months, often around 25–35%, but a growing contingent is urging patience or selectivity at current levels.

For Wednesday’s open, the key questions are:

Does the video rollout narrative keep attracting fresh buyers above $590, or do traders lock in profits?
Do new research notes reinforce the bullish consensus or amplify valuation concerns?
Can SPOT start building a new base for a move back toward the $600s–$700s, or does it stall below key moving averages?

As always, none of this is a guarantee of future performance. If you’re considering trading or investing in SPOT, it’s worth combining these fresh December 9 headlines and forecasts with your own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs — and, ideally, independent financial advice.