Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE: SQM) — one of the world’s best-known lithium producers — is in focus on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, as a sharp move in China’s lithium market and a high-profile Wall Street upgrade combine to lift sentiment across the sector.
SQM shares were up sharply in early U.S. trading, changing hands around $69.10 (up about 7.7%) as of 10:12 a.m. ET.
Below is a detailed rundown of today’s key news, the latest forecasts and analyst calls, and the catalysts (and risks) investors are watching next.
Why SQM stock is rallying today
Two storylines are driving SQM’s move on December 17:
1) Lithium prices jump in China after mining-licence news
Lithium prices in China surged after authorities in Yichun — a major lithium hub in Jiangxi province — said they planned to revoke 27 mining licences. Reuters reported the most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange spiked to 109,860 yuan/ton (highest since June 2024) before closing up 7.61% at 108,620 yuan/ton. [1]
That move immediately fed into U.S.-listed lithium equities. In a Reuters market update carried by TradingView, SQM’s U.S.-listed shares gained 4.3% in the premarket as lithium peers also rose. [2]
Important nuance: Reuters also noted that many of the licences were already expired (some for years) and that analysts at a Chinese broker suggested the cancellations likely have limited impact on current supply because they don’t cover operating mines. In other words, today’s price action looks driven more by future-supply anxiety and positioning than a confirmed near-term supply shock. [3]
2) JPMorgan turns more bullish on SQM and lithium’s 2026–2027 outlook
The second catalyst is a major bank upgrade.
According to a Reuters report carried by TradingView, JPMorgan upgraded SQM to Overweight from Neutral and nearly doubled its price target to $79, arguing lithium prices could rise roughly 62% from current levels as energy storage demand accelerates. [4]
The same Reuters/TradingView item summarized key assumptions in the call:
- 2026 and 2027 lithium price forecasts raised to $17,500/ton and $22,000/ton (lithium carbonate/hydroxide), up materially versus prior estimates. [5]
- 2026 energy storage systems (ESS) battery demand increased to 900 GWh, with ESS projected to represent 34% of lithium demand in 2026, rising to 42% by 2030. [6]
- A 2026 EBITDA forecast for SQM of $3.3 billion, described as well above prior estimates and above consensus. [7]
- A 2026 volume view: 275,000 tons LCE total (250,000 from Chile and 25,000 from Australia). [8]
Another widely-circulated summary of the same JPMorgan note (via TheFly/TipRanks) added that the bank sees the industry returning to a structural deficit of ~130K tons/year over the next five years, driven in part by an upward revision to ESS demand, and warned a “supply hiatus” may not be fully priced into lithium equities. [9]
The lithium market backdrop: why “China headlines” still move global producers like SQM
Even though SQM operates primarily in Chile, lithium is a global commodity business where China’s pricing signals can shift market expectations quickly.
Reuters framed today’s China price spike in the context of a broader rebound that has been building for months. It noted lithium prices have been rising since August, when mining at a CATL-linked site was suspended following a mining-licence expiry, and that booming demand from energy storage has provided additional support. [10]
For investors in SQM, this matters because the stock typically trades on a combination of:
- Realized lithium prices and contract dynamics
- The market’s view of whether lithium is oversupplied or heading back into deficit
- Demand momentum from both EVs and grid/storage buildouts
Today’s news hits that second and third point: it revives the “future supply tightening” narrative at the same moment a major bank is explicitly upgrading the stock on energy storage-driven demand.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is saying (as of Dec. 17, 2025)
The JPMorgan call is the biggest headline today, but it’s not the only analyst viewpoint investors are weighing.
JPMorgan: $79 price target, raised lithium price deck
JPMorgan’s upgrade to Overweight and higher price target is grounded in a two-year view that lithium pricing improves as ESS demand rises. [11]
Citi: Neutral after a big run-up
A separate note summarized by TheFly/TipRanks shows Citigroup downgraded SQM to Neutral from Buy and set a $74 target (up from $51), reportedly because the stock’s rally left valuation less compelling and because Citi believes the lithium price recovery is already reflected in the share price. [12]
Goldman: Neutral, but lifts target
Goldman Sachs has also been cited as maintaining a Neutral rating while raising its target to $63 (from $55). [13]
What this mix implies for the SQM stock “forecast”
Put together, the current analyst landscape looks like this:
- The bull case is increasingly tied to energy storage demand and a multi-year tightening in lithium fundamentals (JPMorgan). [14]
- The skeptical case isn’t necessarily “lithium stays weak,” but rather “the market already priced the recovery,” which can cap upside even if lithium improves (Citi/Goldman summaries). [15]
That tension is crucial for how SQM trades from here: if lithium prices keep firming, the debate may shift from “is the rebound real?” to “how much of it is already in the stock?”
SQM fundamentals: what the company said most recently
While today’s move is headline-driven, SQM’s latest reported operating trends are part of why investors are increasingly willing to re-rate lithium names.
In its most recently discussed quarter (Q3 2025), Reuters reported SQM posted:
- Net income of $178.4 million (up 36% year-over-year)
- Revenue of $1.17 billion (up 8.9% year-over-year)
- Lithium and derivatives revenue of $603.7 million (up 21.4%), helped by stronger demand and improving price realization [16]
Reuters also quoted SQM’s CEO expressing optimism that demand and pricing strength could continue through Q4, supported by EV demand and energy storage systems. [17]
The Codelco partnership: a strategic overhang slowly clearing
Longer term, investors still view SQM’s partnership framework in Chile — particularly the proposed structure involving state-owned miner Codelco in the Salar de Atacama — as a major strategic variable for the next decade.
Reuters reported in November that China granted conditional approval for the Codelco–SQM lithium joint venture, including conditions around maintaining lithium carbonate supply to Chinese buyers. [18]
However, Reuters also indicated that as of mid-November, the deal still awaited final approval from Chile’s comptroller. [19]
From an investor’s perspective on Dec. 17, the key point is this: the market increasingly treats the partnership path as more likely than not, and major analysts (like JPMorgan in today’s upgrade summary) are comfortable modeling lower political risk into 2026 assumptions. [20]
Balance sheet and financing: SQM’s $430 million hybrid bond
Another recent development that feeds into the broader “SQM can fund growth through the cycle” narrative is the company’s December financing move.
In a December 4 filing, SQM disclosed it completed the placement of Series S hybrid bonds in Chile totaling UF 10,000,000 (approximately $430 million), with the bonds:
- Maturing Feb. 15, 2058
- Paying a fixed annual interest rate of 4% (over inflation-adjusted principal, UF-denominated)
- Proceeds intended for general corporate purposes and refinancing existing debt [21]
A Reuters market item also summarized the bond raise and the core terms (2058 maturity, 4% fixed annual interest rate). [22]
For equity holders, the significance is less about a single bond and more about flexibility: long-dated financing can help SQM keep investing (or at least avoid forced retrenchment) even when lithium pricing is volatile.
What to watch next: catalysts for SQM stock after today’s spike
Here are the key near-term drivers likely to shape SQM’s next move after the Dec. 17 rally:
1) Whether China’s lithium rally holds (or fades)
Reuters was explicit that today’s licence news may not hit current supply, which raises the odds that part of the futures jump is sentiment-driven and could retrace if follow-through headlines disappoint. [23]
2) Confirmation of the “energy storage demand” narrative
JPMorgan’s thesis hinges on ESS becoming an increasingly dominant slice of lithium demand. If storage installations continue surprising to the upside, that strengthens the argument that lithium demand growth isn’t just an EV story anymore. [24]
3) Earnings timing and guidance
Market calendars currently point to SQM reporting Q4 2025 results in late February 2026 (with some services listing Feb. 26, after close). [25]
Investors will likely focus on:
- Realized pricing and contract mix
- Volume guidance for 2026
- Capex discipline versus growth plans
4) Any definitive update on the Codelco partnership process
The market has treated regulatory clearances as gradually de-risking the partnership, but any surprise delay (or political controversy) can still affect valuation assumptions. [26]
Bottom line: SQM is trading like a “macro lithium” stock again — but fundamentals will decide staying power
On December 17, 2025, SQM stock is reacting to a powerful combo: a sharp upside move in China lithium pricing and a bullish JPMorgan upgrade that reframes the next two years as an energy-storage-led demand story. [27]
Whether the rally extends from here depends on what comes next:
- If lithium prices keep firming and energy storage demand continues to accelerate, SQM could benefit from a higher-through-the-cycle earnings narrative consistent with the most bullish forecasts. [28]
- If the China-driven spike fades or if investors conclude the recovery is already priced in (a key counterpoint raised in more cautious analyst notes), SQM may revert to trading primarily on quarterly execution and guidance. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. www.tipranks.com
