Starbucks Stock (SBUX) on December 1, 2025: NYC Settlement, Union Strike and Wall Street’s 2026 Forecast

Updated: December 1, 2025

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) closed Monday’s session at about $84.91, down roughly 2.5% on the day, leaving the coffee giant modestly positive year‑to‑date but still well below its 2021 peak. ^[1]

The pullback comes as investors digest three big storylines converging at once:

• A $38.9 million New York City labor settlement over scheduling practices
• An escalating nationwide union strike heading into the key holiday quarter
• Mixed but improving fundamentals, with analysts divided between cautious “Hold” calls and bullish targets in the high‑$90s to low‑$100s over the next 12 months ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at what changed today, how it fits into Starbucks’ broader turnaround plan, and how Wall Street now values SBUX heading into 2026.

Starbucks stock today: price, performance and valuation

As of the U.S. market close on December 1, 2025, Starbucks shares traded around:

• Share price: $84.91
• Daily move: –2.20 (–2.53%) ^[3]
• 52‑week range: roughly $75.50–$117.46 ^[4]
• Market cap: about $99 billion
• Trailing P/E: ~53x
• Dividend yield: ~2.8–2.9% on an annual dividend of $2.48 per share ^[5]

Performance snapshot:

• 2025 year‑to‑date: about +4.2%, versus the S&P 500’s stronger gains ^[6]
• Five‑year total return (12/1/2020–12/1/2025): approximately –1.5% (essentially flat after a volatile ride) ^[7]

On current consensus earnings forecasts of $2.54 EPS for FY 2026 and $3.15 for FY 2027, today’s price implies a forward P/E in the low‑30s for 2026 and high‑20s for 2027 — still a premium to many restaurant and consumer staples peers. ^[8]

That valuation sits at the center of today’s debate: is Starbucks a premium compounder recovering from a rough patch, or an over‑earning brand facing structural margin and growth headwinds?

Labor overhang dominates December 1 headlines

Record NYC settlement over worker scheduling

The most immediate catalyst for SBUX on December 1 is labor, not lattes.

New York City announced that Starbucks will pay $38.9 million to resolve allegations it violated the city’s Fair Workweek Law, which requires predictable schedules and restrictions on last‑minute changes for fast‑food workers. ^[9]

Key details:

• Roughly $35.5 million will go to more than 15,000 workers in New York City
• $3.4 million covers civil penalties and city costs
• Eligible baristas are expected to receive about $50 for each week worked in an hourly role between July 4, 2021 and July 7, 2024 ^[10]
• City investigators found Starbucks repeatedly cut hours without consent, failed to provide regular schedules and gave shifts to new hires rather than existing workers ^[11]

For context, Starbucks generated $37.2 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, so the cash outlay is roughly 0.1% of annual sales — financially manageable but symbolically significant. ^[12]

The settlement lands as Starbucks faces heightened scrutiny over how it treats workers nationally and may influence future regulatory enforcement in other “predictive scheduling” cities such as San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles. ^[13]

Nationwide union strike enters holiday stretch

Alongside the NYC deal, Starbucks is contending with its largest strike in company history.

• The “Red Cup Rebellion”, launched on November 13, began with workers at 65 stores in more than 40 cities walking off the job in an open‑ended unfair labor practice strike. ^[14]
• By Black Friday (November 28), the Starbucks Workers United union said the strike had expanded to more than 120 stores across 85 cities, involving roughly 2,500 baristas. ^[15]
• The union represents about 11,000 baristas at roughly 550 U.S. stores and is demanding better pay, more stable hours and resolution of hundreds of alleged unfair labor practices. ^[16]

Starbucks, for its part, says 99% of its 17,000+ U.S. locations remain open, and that only around 55 stores were closed on Black Friday because of the strike — suggesting a limited near‑term operational hit, though pressure on staffing costs and brand perception is likely higher. ^[17]

The strike has also become a political stage: images and video from New York City on December 1 show U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders and mayor‑elect Zohran Mamdani speaking at a Starbucks picket line in Brooklyn, underscoring the reputational stakes for management. ^[18]

For investors, the labor situation matters less for today’s comps and more for long‑run margin structure. If Starbucks ultimately concedes to higher wages, more generous staffing and tighter scheduling rules nationwide, the unit‑level economics that underpinned past valuation multiples will almost certainly change.

Strategy reset: “Back to Starbucks,” China pivot and store closures

Q4 FY2025: revenue stabilizes, margins compress

Starbucks reported fiscal Q4 2025 results on October 29 (quarter ended September 28, 2025), giving investors an updated look at the turnaround dubbed “Back to Starbucks.” ^[19]

Headline numbers:

• Q4 revenue: $9.6 billion, up 5% year‑on‑year ^[20]
• Global comparable store sales:+1%, ending a seven‑quarter streak of flat or negative comps
  • North America/U.S.: comps flat, with tickets slightly higher but transactions slightly lower
  • International: comps +3%, driven by a 6% increase in transactions
  • China: comps +2%, with 9% traffic growth offset by a 7% decline in average ticket ^[21]
• Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.52, down about 35% year‑over‑year and roughly $0.03 below consensus, as restructuring and labor costs weighed on margins ^[22]

For the full fiscal year:

• FY2025 revenue:$37.2 billion, up 3% from FY2024
• Global comps:–1%, with U.S. comps down 2% as traffic remained soft
• GAAP EPS:$1.63, down roughly 51%; non‑GAAP EPS $2.13, down 36% ^[23]

North America margins illustrate the pain of the reboot:

• Q4 North America revenue rose about 3% to $6.9 billion, but operating margin plunged from 18.7% to 4.5%, largely due to store closures, labor investments and inflation.
• Starbucks closed 627 stores as part of restructuring, ending the quarter with 40,990 locations worldwide and posting 107 net closures in Q4. ^[24]

CEO Brian Niccol insists the company is strengthening its foundation, highlighting upgrades to staffing, new labor‑saving technology like “Smart Queue,” store refurbishments and more disciplined menu innovation. He has repeatedly argued that returning to positive global comps is an early proof point that the turnaround is “taking hold,” while acknowledging this will be a multi‑year process. ^[25]

China pivot: selling a majority stake

Another major structural shift in 2025 came in Starbucks China, historically the company’s fastest‑growing market.

In early November, Starbucks announced it would sell a majority stake in its China business to Boyu Capital in a deal valued at about $4 billion. The company will retain a significant minority stake and receive ongoing licensing and royalty income, but will no longer fully control operations in its second‑largest market. ^[26]

Commentary has been sharply divided:

• A Reuters analysis framed the transaction as part of a broader trend of U.S. companies trimming China exposure amid geopolitical risk and fierce local competition. ^[27]
• A series of columns at 24/7 Wall St. described the move as a “China defeat,” arguing that selling 60% of such a strategic asset after 26 years in the country signals that Starbucks “failed to learn” how to operate there, especially as local rival Luckin Coffee thrives with over 20,000 stores and a much larger share of China’s coffee market. ^[28]

Bulls counter that partnering with a local owner can unlock faster growth and reduce capital intensity, similar to prior McDonald’s and Yum! Brands restructurings in China. Some analysis — including a now‑paywalled piece at Barron’s — has suggested the China deal, combined with margin recovery, could support Starbucks stock trading near $105 by the end of 2026, roughly 20–25% above current levels, if execution goes to plan. ^[29]

Taken together, FY2025 results and the China pivot portray a company shrinking to grow: closing weaker North American stores, reshaping its largest growth market into a joint venture, and pouring capital into store upgrades and labor at the expense of near‑term earnings.

What Wall Street is saying on December 1, 2025

Despite the headlines, the Street remains broadly constructive on Starbucks — but with growing nuance.

Consensus: still a “Buy,” with targets in the mid‑90s to low‑100s

Different data providers tell a broadly similar story:

• StockAnalysis.com tracks 23 analysts covering Starbucks; the group rates SBUX a “Buy” with an average 12‑month price target of $97.87 (low $76, high $115), implying about 15% upside from today’s close. ^[30]
• MarketBeat reports 29 brokerages with a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy.” Its compilation shows 2 Sell, 11 Hold, 15 Buy and 1 Strong Buy ratings and an average target of $101.44, versus recent trading in the mid‑$80s. ^[31]
• GuruFocus cites 33 analysts with an average one‑year target of about $93.93 (range $67–$115) and classifies the consensus as “Outperform.” Its proprietary GF Value model pegs fair value nearer $103, suggesting mid‑teens upside from recent prices. ^[32]
• A restricted MarketWatch analyst‑estimates page lists an “Overweight” average recommendation and an average target around $94.55 based on roughly 39 ratings. ^[33]

Pulling this together, mainstream sell‑side opinion sees Starbucks as modestly undervalued, with most fair‑value estimates clustering between the mid‑$90s and low‑$100s, versus a spot price in the mid‑$80s.

Today’s big call: TD Cowen reiterates a cautious Hold

The most notable December 1 research move comes from TD Cowen’s Andrew M. Charles, whose stance is driving much of the day’s analyst chatter.

Multiple platforms — including Benzinga, GuruFocus, Quiver Quantitative, Fintel and Nasdaq — all confirm that TD Cowen reiterated a Hold rating and a $84 price target on Starbucks on December 1, 2025. ^[34]

Charles’ key arguments, as summarized in Benzinga’s write‑up:

• Starbucks’ turnaround is “far less straightforward” than optimistic sentiment implies.
• He expects North American store operating expenses to run higher than Street models, embedding roughly $531 million in incremental 2026 operating expense versus consensus estimates around $308 million.
• His forecasts put 2026 and 2027 EPS about 5% below consensus, reflecting higher labor, modestly higher cost of sales and a slower benefit from store closures. ^[35]

TD Cowen’s $84 target is effectively flat to slightly below today’s price, contrasting with the mid‑$90s+ targets from more bullish firms such as BTIG, RBC and Piper Sandler, which have reiterated Buy/Overweight ratings with targets in the $100–$105 range over the past month. ^[36]

Independent and quant views

Beyond the big brokerages:

• 24/7 Wall St. has taken an openly bearish tone, publishing pieces titled “Starbucks’ Horrible Future” and “Starbucks’ China Defeat” in November. These argue that the stock’s inability to revisit 2021 highs, repeated CEO changes and the China sale suggest the company’s best days are behind it and that the turnaround has “already failed” from a shareholder perspective. ^[37]
• A Seeking Alpha contributor (in an article summarized in search snippets) recently rated SBUX a Hold, noting that the current valuation is “not compelling” and that more attractive growth stories exist elsewhere in coffee and quick‑service restaurants. ^[38]
• Algorithmic sites such as StockInvest.us see only modest near‑term moves, with a model‑driven “fair” opening price for December 2, 2025 of about $85.45, just slightly above Monday’s close. ^[39]

Overall, today’s research flow leans cautiously optimistic: most analysts still recommend buying or overweighting SBUX, but price targets have drifted down, and several influential voices — including TD Cowen — emphasize execution and cost risk rather than a simple “buy the dip” narrative.

Earnings outlook: what the numbers say about 2026–2027

Consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis and other aggregators imply a meaningful earnings recovery over the next two fiscal years: ^[40]

• Revenue:
  • FY2025 (actual): $37.18B
  • FY2026 (est.): $39.37B (+5.9%)
  • FY2027 (est.): $42.14B (+7.0%)
• EPS (GAAP/non‑GAAP blend in models):
  • FY2025 (actual GAAP): $1.63
  • FY2026 (est.): $2.54 (+56%)
  • FY2027 (est.): $3.15 (+24%) ^[41]

Those growth rates look impressive, but part of the jump simply reflects lapping a depressed 2025, when restructuring costs and labor investments hammered margins.

TD Cowen, as noted above, sits below consensus, with 2026 and 2027 EPS projections of roughly $2.25 and $2.84, respectively, citing: ^[42]

• Higher‑than‑expected store operating expenses in North America
• Persistent pressure from coffee input costs, even with some tariff relief
• Limited incremental benefit from the closure of underperforming U.S. stores

Meanwhile, sites like TradingView and Yahoo’s earnings pages show the most recent quarter’s $0.52 EPS vs. $0.56 estimate (about a 6.5% miss), and project next‑quarter earnings of roughly $0.60 per share, reinforcing the idea that near‑term numbers remain fragile. ^[43]

Bull vs. bear case for Starbucks stock right now

The bull case: global brand, improving comps, dividend support

Supporters of Starbucks stock today typically point to several pillars:

1. Iconic global brand and scale
   Starbucks operates nearly 41,000 stores across more than 80 markets, with about 61% of the portfolio in the U.S. and China. Its mix of company‑operated and licensed locations, plus channel‑development partnerships and ready‑to‑drink products, gives it multiple revenue streams tied to the same brand. ^[44]
2. Early signs that “Back to Starbucks” is working
   After seven quarters of flat or negative global comps, Q4 FY2025 finally delivered +1% comp growth globally, flat comps in North America and positive comps in China. Management argues that investments in staffing, store refurbishments and menu innovation are now driving better customer experience metrics and setting the stage for healthier growth in 2026 and beyond. ^[45]
3. Attractive long‑term earnings growth if margins normalize
   If consensus EPS forecasts in the mid‑$2s for 2026 and low‑$3s for 2027 are met, Starbucks would deliver high‑teens compound EPS growth coming off the 2025 trough. At that point, today’s mid‑80s share price could look reasonable, especially if margins recover toward pre‑restructuring levels. ^[46]
4. Shareholder‑friendly capital return
   Starbucks raised its quarterly dividend to $0.62 per share this fall (annualized $2.48), for a forward yield around 2.8–2.9% at current prices. Although the payout ratio is temporarily elevated (above 140% of depressed GAAP earnings), many analysts expect the ratio to fall back into a more normal range as earnings recover. ^[47]
5. Institutional and insider support
   MarketBeat data show roughly 72% institutional ownership, and at least one director, Jorgen Vig Knudstorp, recently bought nearly $1 million in SBUX stock on the open market, a gesture often interpreted as a vote of confidence. ^[48]

The bear case: structural costs, China reset and labor risk

Skeptics counter with their own, equally compelling narrative:

1. Margins are structurally lower than before
   GAAP operating margin fell from the mid‑teens to single digits in FY2025, and North America’s Q4 margin compressed from nearly 19% to 4.5% in a single year, even before fully digesting the impact of ongoing unionization efforts and new scheduling mandates. ^[49]
2. Labor unrest is not a one‑off
   The 2025 nationwide strike, combined with the record NYC settlement, suggests Starbucks will have to make permanent concessions on wages, hours and scheduling practices, especially in major urban markets. That could lock in higher operating costs just as competitors like Dunkin’ and independent specialty chains fight harder on price and experience. ^[50]
3. China’s growth engine has been downgraded
   By selling 60% of its China business to Boyu Capital, Starbucks may reduce volatility and capital needs, but also gives up control over what was once touted as its largest future opportunity. Critics argue that walking away from majority ownership in a market where comps were actually outpacing the U.S. underscores how challenging the environment has become. ^[51]
4. CEO turnover and execution questions
   24/7 Wall St. has gone so far as to call Starbucks’ latest CEO experiment “already failed,” emphasizing that despite multiple strategic resets under several chief executives, the stock trades well below its 2021 highs and has been effectively flat over five years after dividends. ^[52]
5. Valuation still isn’t cheap
   Even after the recent pullback, SBUX trades at a high‑20s forward P/E on 2027 earnings and a premium to many consumer peers, leaving limited room for disappointment if comps soften again or union negotiations drag on. TD Cowen’s December 1 note, with EPS estimates below consensus and a target roughly in line with today’s price, encapsulates that concern. ^[53]

Other near‑term storylines investors are watching

Beyond the big three themes of NYC settlement, strike and China, several smaller but relevant threads are also in play:

• Tariff relief on coffee and bananas: Coverage in MarketWatch and other outlets suggests Starbucks could see some gross‑margin relief if recently announced tariff cuts on agricultural imports take hold. But these benefits may be offset by higher labor and occupancy costs, limiting net margin expansion. ^[54]
• Staffing model rollout: Starbucks has been accelerating a new, more labor‑intensive staffing model across North American stores since mid‑2025, aiming to reduce wait times and improve service — but at the cost of higher hours per store. Management insists this can pay off via higher traffic and ticket over time; bears see it as another layer of structural expense. ^[55]
• Holiday menu and brand momentum: On the consumer side, Starbucks has tried to rekindle goodwill by bringing back fan‑favorite holiday items — notably the Eggnog Latte, returning after a multi‑year absence — and expanding seasonal cold foam options. While fun for customers and helpful for brand engagement, these moves are unlikely to shift the long‑term financial trajectory on their own. ^[56]

Key questions for SBUX investors after December 1, 2025

Looking ahead into 2026, much of the Starbucks investment case boils down to the answers to a few core questions:

1. Can Starbucks restore double‑digit margins while honoring new labor realities?
   If operating margin can move solidly back toward the low‑teens while comps stay positive, today’s valuation could prove attractive. If margins stay stuck in the high‑single digits, the premium multiple will be difficult to justify.
2. Will the China joint venture unlock growth or confirm retreat?
   Investors will watch closely to see whether Boyu Capital can indeed accelerate unit growth and profitability in China, and how Starbucks’ minority economics compare with past fully consolidated results.
3. How quickly can comps stabilize and accelerate in North America?
   With fiscal 2025 global comps barely positive in Q4 and flat in the U.S., the Street is effectively betting that improved staffing, revamped stores and refreshed marketing will drive sustained mid‑single‑digit comp growth in 2026–2027. ^[57]
4. Does the strike end with a landmark contract, or drag into a PR war?
   A negotiated national framework with Starbucks Workers United could provide clarity on future cost structures — even if it’s more expensive. A prolonged stalemate or further legal fights could keep a cloud over the stock and limit multiple expansion. ^[58]

Bottom line (and a quick disclaimer)

On December 1, 2025, Starbucks stock sits at the intersection of:

• A major labor settlement and ongoing national strike,
• A strategic reset in China and at underperforming U.S. stores, and
• A Street consensus that still sees 10–20% upside over the next year, tempered by fresh skepticism on margins and execution. ^[59]

For now, the market appears to be splitting the difference between upbeat long‑term forecasts and short‑term labor and restructuring risks, keeping SBUX stuck in the mid‑$80s.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a substitute for independent financial judgment. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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