Dateline: December 9, 2025
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) finds itself at a turning point. The coffee giant is trading well below its 52‑week high, navigating an open‑ended union strike, a major New York City labor settlement and a billion‑dollar restructuring under its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround strategy. At the same time, Wall Street still expects double‑digit upside over the next 12 months and a sharp rebound in earnings. [1]
Below is a detailed look at where Starbucks stock stands today (December 9, 2025), the latest news affecting the share price, and what analysts are forecasting for 2026 and beyond.
Starbucks stock today: price, valuation and recent performance
As of this afternoon on December 9, 2025, Starbucks shares trade around $82–83 per share, down roughly 0.8–1.2% on the day, with an intraday range near $82.02–$83.33. [2]
Key snapshot metrics:
- Share price: about $82.7
- Market cap: roughly $93–95 billion [3]
- 52‑week range:$75.50–$117.46 [4]
- Trailing EPS (GAAP, TTM):$1.63
- Trailing P/E: ~50–51x
- Forward P/E: ~34–35x, based on analyst EPS forecasts [5]
- Dividend:$0.62 per quarter, or $2.48 annually, implying a yield around 3.0% at current prices [6]
Performance has been underwhelming:
In other words, Starbucks still trades at a premium multiple despite negative 1‑year returns and mid‑single‑digit revenue growth, a combination that many analysts now view as the core tension in the SBUX story.
Q4 and full‑year 2025: revenue growth, but margins get crushed
Starbucks reported Q4 FY2025 and full‑year results on October 29, 2025, and the numbers explain a lot of the recent share‑price weakness. [9]
Headline results
- Q4 revenue:$9.57 billion, up 5.5% year over year and slightly ahead of analyst expectations (~$9.41 billion). [10]
- Q4 EPS (GAAP):$0.52, missing consensus of $0.55. [11]
- Full‑year 2025 revenue:$37.18 billion, up 2.79% vs. 2024. [12]
- Full‑year 2025 net income:$1.86 billion, down ~51% year over year, with EPS falling from $3.31 to $1.63. [13]
The top line is still growing, but profitability has been hit hard by restructuring, higher labor costs and strategic investments.
Segment performance and restructuring impact
Starbucks ended FY2025 with 40,990 stores globally, with the U.S. and China together accounting for about 61% of its footprint. [14]
In Q4 alone, the company:
- Closed 584 North America stores and 43 international stores as part of its “Back to Starbucks” restructuring. [15]
- Recorded North America comparable sales of 0%, with transactions down 1% and average ticket up 1%.
- Saw North America revenue rise 3% to $6.9 billion, but operating margin collapse from 18.7% to 4.5%, largely due to restructuring charges and higher labor spend. [16]
- Reported International revenue up 9% to $2.1 billion, with 3% comps growth but margins also down, from 14.9% to 10.8%. [17]
- Delivered Channel Development revenue growth of 17% to $542.6 million, with an extremely high 48.9% margin even after some compression. [18]
CFO Cathy Smith highlighted that Q4 was the first quarter of positive global comparable sales in seven quarters, but emphasized that the turnaround is “multi‑year” and that near‑term margins are intentionally being sacrificed to reset the store base and cost structure. [19]
“Back to Starbucks”: store closures, headcount cuts and a new service‑first push
On September 25, 2025, new CEO Brian Niccol outlined a major reset for the North American business in a memo titled “Message from Brian: An Important Update.” [20]
Key elements:
- Starbucks has reviewed its North American coffeehouse portfolio and is closing locations where it can’t deliver the desired experience or a “clear path to financial performance.”
- After accounting for new openings, North America company‑operated store count will decline about 1% in FY2025, a rare step back for a company that has historically been in perpetual expansion mode. [21]
- Starbucks expects to end the year with nearly 18,300 total locations (company + licensed) in the U.S. and Canada, then return to growth in FY2026. [22]
- Over the next 12 months, the company plans to “uplift” more than 1,000 stores with warmer design, more seating and an updated look. [23]
- Starbucks will eliminate about 900 non‑retail roles, shifting resources closer to the store and funding more “green apron” hours (barista labor) during peak times. [24]
In parallel, external coverage suggests the restructuring plan totals about $1 billion in costs, including roughly $150 million for separation expenses and $850 million for closures and related charges, though Starbucks itself frames this as a finite, one‑off effort tied to the “Back to Starbucks” strategy. [25]
For investors, the message is clear: near‑term earnings are under pressure so the company can reset its footprint, service model and cost base in hopes of better growth and margins after FY2026.
Labor battles, NYC settlement and the nationwide Starbucks strike
Labor is now one of Starbucks’ defining storylines — and a material risk factor for the stock.
NYC Fair Workweek settlement
In late November/early December, Starbucks agreed to pay $38.9 million to resolve allegations that it violated New York City’s “Fair Workweek” law, which requires predictable schedules and stable hours for fast‑food workers. [26]
- About $35.5 million will go to more than 15,000 NYC workers, with the remainder ($3.4 million) covering civil penalties and costs, according to reports from Forbes, the Wall Street Journal and Reuters. [27]
The settlement does not resolve separate disputes over unionization, but it adds to the perception that Starbucks faces ongoing legal and regulatory scrutiny over its labor practices.
Starbucks Workers United: four years in and still no contract
On December 9, 2025, Restaurant Dive published “By the numbers: 4 years of Starbucks Workers United,” noting that: [28]
- Starbucks Workers United (SBWU) has won about 650 NLRB elections since 2021.
- Due to store closures, it now represents roughly 11,000 workers across more than 560 stores — a small fraction of Starbucks’ total North American footprint but a large organized base for a fast‑food chain.
- The union is currently pressing for a contract through an indefinite strike at more than 140 stores.
This current wave of action builds on an open‑ended strike launched on November 13 — timed to Starbucks’ busy Red Cup Day — when more than 1,000 unionized baristas walked out. [29]
Coverage from CNBC, Reuters and other outlets indicates the strike spread to over 120 stores across 80+ cities over Black Friday and has continued into December, with rallies in New York and other major markets. [30]
Meanwhile, Starbucks says it remains willing to bargain, claiming the union “walked away from the table,” while the union accuses the company of stalling and bad‑faith tactics. [31]
Direct vs. indirect impact on the stock
Operationally, even 140–150 striking stores represent a small percentage of Starbucks’ ~18,300 U.S. and Canadian locations. But:
- Prolonged labor unrest threatens brand reputation, particularly among younger, socially conscious consumers.
- Settlements and legal actions add direct costs and could influence scheduling and staffing models nationwide.
- Investors increasingly see labor as a persistent drag on margins and a key uncertainty for the valuation.
It’s no coincidence that several recent bearish and “Hold”‑rated analyses explicitly cite labor disputes and union pressure as part of their thesis. [32]
Holiday promotions and digital engagement: “Starbucks for Life” returns
On the demand side, Starbucks is leaning heavily into digital engagement and loyalty to drive traffic during the crucial holiday quarter.
The company has just relaunched its “Starbucks for Life” promotion, running from December 8, 2025 through January 4, 2026 for Starbucks Rewards members. The 2025 edition introduces an interactive game where players race through virtual versions of Seattle, Milan, Tokyo and New York in a 90‑second run, collecting red cups and menu items to earn prizes. [33]
Prizes range from free drinks and food to over 600 Glass Starbucks Bearista Cold Cups per day (about 16,000 total), as well as chances to win a year of free Starbucks or the grand “Starbucks for Life” prize. [34]
This builds on Starbucks’ already powerful digital ecosystem:
- Starbucks Rewards accounts for around 41% of U.S. sales, according to recent company commentary. [35]
- The company is experimenting with new mobile ordering features to better time drink preparation and pick‑ups, aiming to reduce congestion and improve the experience for app users. [36]
For investors, these promotions matter because holiday traffic and digital engagement are a key test of whether “Back to Starbucks” is improving the customer experience — or whether negative headlines about strikes and labor disputes are driving consumers away.
What Wall Street is saying: analyst ratings and 2026 forecasts
Despite the recent drawdown in the stock and mounting controversy, Wall Street’s consensus view on Starbucks remains cautiously optimistic.
Analyst ratings and price targets
According to aggregated data from StockAnalysis and MarketBeat:
- 23 analysts currently cover SBUX, with an average rating of “Buy.” [37]
- The average 12‑month price target is about $97.9, implying roughly 18–19% upside from the recent ~$82–83 share price. [38]
- Individual targets range from roughly $76 on the low end to $110–115 at the high end. [39]
Recent calls include:
- TD Cowen – Hold, $84 target (recently reiterated). [40]
- RBC Capital – Buy, target cut from $110 to $100. [41]
- Piper Sandler – Buy, target cut from $105 to $100. [42]
MarketBeat’s institutional‑flow pieces highlight that while some firms (e.g., London & Capital Asset Management) have reduced their stake by over 70%, others such as Fayez Sarofim & Co and SVB Wealth LLC have significantly increased or initiated positions. Overall, about 72% of Starbucks shares are owned by institutions. [43]
Revenue and EPS forecasts
Street forecasts (compiled by Finnhub/StockAnalysis) currently assume a rebound in profits over the next two fiscal years: [44]
- Revenue FY2026: ~$39.0 billion (+4.9% vs. 2025).
- Revenue FY2027: ~$41.8 billion (+7.1% vs. 2026).
- EPS FY2026:$2.44, up ~50% from 2025’s depressed $1.63.
- EPS FY2027:$3.07, another ~26% growth on top of 2026.
In other words, the consensus assumes that:
- The restructuring drag fades,
- Margins recover, and
- Starbucks returns to something closer to its historical earnings power by 2027.
Options flow and technicals: mixed signals from “whales”
Options data adds nuance to the picture. A Benzinga scan on December 9 highlighted 13 unusual SBUX options trades placed by “whales” (large, sophisticated traders). [45]
- The flow was mixed but tilted slightly bearish, with sentiment roughly 30% bullish and 38% bearish across the trades.
- Big positions targeted a wide price window from $40 to $95, including sizeable call trades around the $70 and $85 strikes and a notable bearish put at the $82 strike expiring in December 2025. [46]
- At the time of the scan, SBUX was trading near $82.8, with RSI in neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold. [47]
On the technical side:
- Starbucks trades about 29% below its 52‑week high and only around 10% above its 52‑week low, reflecting a stock that has de‑rated significantly from its 2021 peak and now sits near the lower end of its recent range. [48]
Bull vs. bear case for Starbucks stock heading into 2026
The bull case
Supporters of the stock — including many sell‑side analysts maintaining Buy ratings — emphasize:
- Iconic global brand & scale
Starbucks still operates nearly 41,000 stores in over 80 countries, with powerful brand recognition and a long runway in international markets and ready‑to‑drink channels. [49] - Digital ecosystem and loyalty flywheel
Starbucks Rewards remains a major driver of frequency and basket size. Ongoing enhancements to the app, mobile ordering and gamified promotions like Starbucks for Life deepen engagement and create a moat versus smaller competitors. [50] - Turnaround groundwork mostly laid
Bulls argue that the store closures and headcount reductions are front‑loaded, and that margins should improve as the company finishes its restructuring and begins benefiting from a leaner cost base and refreshed stores. [51] - Dividend and long‑term total return history
Starbucks has paid 62 consecutive quarterly dividends, growing payouts at about 18% CAGR over that period, and still yields around 3% today. Long‑term total returns over 10–20 years remain strong despite recent underperformance. [52] - Consensus upside
With the average price target nearly $98, analysts see high‑teens percentage upside if Starbucks can execute on its turnaround and labor issues don’t materially worsen. [53]
The bear case
Skeptics — including several recent “Sell” and “Hold” opinions — focus on:
- Margin pressure and high valuation
EPS has been cut roughly in half year over year while the stock still trades at ~35x forward earnings, a rich multiple for a company currently growing revenue in the low single digits and struggling with labor and restructuring costs. [54] - Dividend safety concerns
With an annual dividend of $2.48 and trailing EPS of $1.63, the payout ratio is around 150% of earnings; some analysts argue that the dividend is being “over‑caffeinated” relative to near‑term profit capacity, increasing the risk of a future cut if earnings don’t rebound as expected. [55] - Labor and regulatory overhang
The indefinite strike, NYC settlement and ongoing NLRB disputes create continuous headline risk, legal costs and potential structural increases in labor expense (wages, scheduling rules, benefits). [56] - Strategic questions after China changes
Commentary such as 24/7 Wall St.’s “Starbucks’ Horrible Future” has criticized the sale of a large stake in China operations and painted the company as having lost its clearest growth engine, leaving it more dependent on a saturated U.S. market amid intensifying competition. [57] - CEO turnover and execution risk
Starbucks has cycled through multiple CEOs in just a few years (Johnson, Schultz, Narasimhan, and now Niccol). Some investors worry that strategic “whiplash” and a noisy relationship with the workforce could delay or derail the turnaround. [58]
Key things for investors to watch next
For anyone tracking SBUX — whether as a shareholder, trader or potential investor — the next 6–12 months will likely be defined by:
- Resolution (or escalation) of the union strike
- Does Starbucks reach a framework for a first contract, or do strikes spread beyond 140–150 stores?
- Do more cities and regulators follow New York City’s lead on scheduling and worker protections? [59]
- Margin recovery in FY2026
- Do operating margins in North America recover as restructuring charges fade?
- Do store “uplifts” and added labor hours translate into better comps and throughput? [60]
- Traffic and loyalty trends through and after the holidays
- Does the Starbucks for Life campaign and app innovation deliver a stronger‑than‑expected holiday quarter?
- Are customers trading down, visiting less frequently or showing sensitivity to price increases? [61]
- Free cash flow vs. the dividend
- Can Starbucks sustainably cover its 3% dividend and capital spending from free cash flow, or will it need to slow dividend growth (or, in a bear scenario, consider a cut) if earnings lag Street expectations? [62]
- Macro environment and interest rates
- As the Fed weighs rate cuts in 2026, consumer discretionary names like Starbucks could either get a boost (if borrowing costs fall and consumer confidence improves) or face renewed pressure if inflation proves sticky. [63]
Bottom line
As of December 9, 2025, Starbucks stock sits in a tug‑of‑war:
- On one side: an iconic brand, powerful digital ecosystem, ongoing store modernization and a Street consensus that expects strong EPS growth and mid‑single‑digit revenue acceleration over the next two years. [64]
- On the other: labor unrest, compressed margins, legal settlements and a valuation that still assumes the turnaround will work, even though the evidence so far is mixed. [65]
For now, most analysts keep SBUX rated “Buy” or “Moderate Buy”, but the spread of opinions — from bearish calls on dividend safety to upbeat notes about long‑term brand strength — underlines that Starbucks has become a high‑debate, execution‑sensitive stock rather than the uncomplicated growth story it once was.
References
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