Stock Market Mania: Global Indices Break Records on AI & Stimulus – Fed’s Next Move Uncertain

by Marcin Frąckiewicz

U.S. markets mixed: On Oct. 30 the Nasdaq Composite fell ~1.6%, the S&P 500 ~1.0%, and the Dow Jones ~0.2% ^[1], as investors digested big tech earnings. Meta plunged ~11% and Microsoft ~3%, while Alphabet (Google) rose ~2.5% to a record high after reporting >$100 billion revenue ^[2]. Apple ticked up slightly and Amazon surged ~13% in after-hours on blowout earnings ^[3]. Friday’s pre-market futures pointed up (Nasdaq +1.1%, S&P +0.6%) after Amazon and Apple again topped forecasts ^[4].
European stocks at new highs: The pan-European STOXX 600 hit record levels (up ~0.5% in early Oct.) ^[5], with Germany’s DAX leading (~+1.3%). Britain’s FTSE 100 likewise set all-time closes (reaching ~9,594 on Oct 23 and ~9,697 on Oct 28) ^[6] ^[7]. Financials and energy powered much of the gain: HSBC jumped 4.6% (to six-month highs) after raising its outlook ^[8], and oil majors Shell/BP rallied ~3–4% on fresh Russia-sanctions news ^[9]. Italy’s FTSE MIB also outperformed (+~1.0% on Oct 27) on bank stock strength ^[10].
Asian markets surge: Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 closed above 51,000 on Oct 29 (up ~2.2% for the day) ^[11] – the first time ever, up ~26.6% YTD ^[12] – driven by hopes of massive stimulus under new PM Takaichi and the global tech boom. Advantest (chip-equipment) soared +22% and SoftBank Group +3.9% ^[13] ^[14]. Seoul’s KOSPI also reached record highs (4,000+ on Oct 29) and was up ~21% in October ^[15], led by Samsung and SK Hynix on AI chip demand. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has been the world’s best performer (roughly +35% YTD) ^[16] thanks to Chinese stimulus and investor optimism; Beijing’s trade “truce” (Trump–Xi pact) further lifted sentiment ^[17]. Mainland China’s CSI 300 fell ~1.2% after weak PMI readings ^[18], though trade-deal hopes capped the decline.
Tech/AI and sector movers: AI and “Magnificent Seven” tech names remain the rally’s engine. Nvidia briefly became the first $5 trillion company (before easing) ^[19]; TS2.tech notes the Nasdaq-100 is up ~19% this year ^[20]. Hot cloud/AI stocks (Snowflake, CrowdStrike, etc.) have boomed on the AI hype. In contrast, high-spending tech laggards (Meta, Microsoft) pulled markets down ^[21]. Some unexpected standouts: Eli Lilly hit new highs on obesity-drug sales, and even biotech Moderna jumped ~14% on takeover talks. Financials are bright spots – Europe’s bank sector is up ~+35% YTD ^[22] as rate expectations improve. Energy is strong too (oil ~+5% on war-driven supply fears, lifting Shell/BP +3–4% ^[23]). Green/EV plays have rallied: Tesla is up ~+80% YTD on record deliveries ^[24], and renewable stocks generally tracked global risk-on flows. Fintech has had its moments – e.g. SoFi has rocketed ~+230% on blowout Q3 results ^[25].
Policy and economic drivers: Central bank moves and data shaped the week. The Fed delivered a 25 bp cut on Oct 29 (to 3.75–4.00%), as expected ^[26], but Chair Powell warned December’s cut is “far from” assured ^[27]. In effect, markets trimmed Fed-cut bets (Dec cut odds slid to ~30% ^[28]). U.S. inflation data for Sept. came in softer-than-expected ^[29], reinforcing hopes of eventual easing, but shutdown-fueled data gaps have Fed officials in a “fog,” prompting caution ^[30]. Geopolitics injected optimism: Trump and Xi agreed to roll back some tariffs (10% cuts on Chinese imports, resumed rare-earth exports) and resume soybean purchases ^[31], boosting risk appetite. On commodities, crude oil rose back toward $60/barrel and gold ticked higher on geopolitical strains. U.S. Treasury yields firmed (10-yr ~4.10%) ^[32], underpinning a ~3-month high for the dollar (DXY ~99.5) ^[33]. In Europe, slower inflation (especially in energy/food) has markets leaning toward looser policy – ECB officials expect to hold steady for now ^[34]. The week closed with investors awaiting more earnings and central bank signals.
Outlook – cautious optimism: Analysts warn this late-cycle rally may face corrections. Many forecasts still call for further Fed easing into 2026 (supporting “growth” names) ^[35], but Wall Street veterans urge prudence. As TS2.tech notes, JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warned parts of Big Tech look “bubble-like” and ripe for a pullback if earnings disappoint ^[36]. Similarly, Oxford Economics’ Michael Pearce said Powell’s tone “signaled a break” from the recent cut cycle ^[37]. Conversely, positive catalysts remain: Morningstar’s Michael Field observes that signs of a U.S.-China trade deal “are boosting sentiment” ^[38]. eToro strategist Lale Akoner points out the breadth of the rally (“the average tech stock [is] participating”) and sees “further room to run” barring shocks ^[39]. In summary, markets are digesting a heady mix of stimulus, AI optimism and easing inflation – setting new records ^[40] – but investors are bracing for volatility if Fed policy turns hawkish or geopolitical tensions flare.

Sources: Latest market and financial news from Reuters, TS2.tech, Investopedia and others, including detailed reports and expert analysis ^[41] ^[42] ^[43] ^[44] ^[45] ^[46] ^[47] ^[48] ^[49] ^[50] ^[51]. These capture market moves, key stock events, economic indicators and analysts’ commentary through Oct 30–31, 2025.

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CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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Wheat Bulls Rally into Midday as Dryness Supports Prices
October 31, 2025, 5:16 PM EDT. At midday Friday, the wheat complex posted gains: CBT soft red wheat up 5-6 cents, KC HRW up 5-8 cents, MPLS spring wheat 2-4 cents higher. The rally comes as dryness remains a concern for much of the U.S. wheat belt next week. In major supply news, the European Commission raised its EU wheat production to 133.4 MMT with ending stocks at 10.8 MMT. FranceAgriMer puts winter wheat planting at 67% complete, up 11 percentage points from last week. A South Korean mill importer bought 40,300 MT of Canadian wheat. Futures prices near lunchtime: CBOT Dec 25 around $5.30 1/4, Mar 26 $5.45 3/4; KCBT Dec 25 $5.20 1/4, Mar 26 $5.34 3/4; MGEX Mar 26 about $5.73.
Corn Holds Steady Friday as Harvest Price Discovery Ends; December Corn Near $4.22
October 31, 2025, 5:14 PM EDT. Corn markets held steady on Friday, with futures nudging higher by about a penny or less. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price rose 1/4 cent to $3.91 1/4. Today marks the final day of harvest price discovery for crop insurance, with December corn averaging $4.22 so far in October. In supply news, Ukraine corn exports totaled 0.8 MMT in October, down from 1.73 MMT a year earlier. Quotes show Dec 25 at $4.31 1/4, Nearby Cash at $3.91 1/4, Mar 26 at $4.44, and May 26 at $4.52. - Austin Schroeder
Soybeans Edge Higher at Midday on Rainfall and Export Demand
October 31, 2025, 5:12 PM EDT. Soybeans are pushing higher at midday, with front-month contracts up and nearbys supported by a light bull spread. Soymeal futures rise about $9.50/ton in the July contract, while Soy Oil gives back around 46 points. Heavy rains delivering 10-15 inches across SD, MN and IA have sparked flooding along the Missouri River, adding weather risk to the crop outlook. The USDA reported a private export sale of 228,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines for 2024/25. Export Inspections show soybeans shipments of 342,293 MT for the week ended 6/20, led by Egypt (113,216 MT), with Mexico and Germany also aloft. Year-to-date shipments total 41.23 MMT (1.51 bbu), down 16.2% from a year ago.
Cattle Market Mixed on Friday: Oct Live Cattle Up Ahead of Expiry, Feeder Cattle Down
October 31, 2025, 5:10 PM EDT. The cattle complex is mixed Friday. The live cattle futures show a gain in the October contract ahead of expiration, while other contracts fall about $2.80 to $3.30. Cash trades run around $230-$235 in the North and South, with the Fed Cattle Exchange reporting $236 on 134 of 820 offered. Feeder cattle futures slide by roughly $5.60 to $6.27 as the CME Feeder Cattle Index drops to about $352. Boxed beef is mixed-Choice near $378.67, Select near $359.23. Slaughter stands at 457,000 YTD, above last week but shy of last year.
Lean Hog Futures Mixed at Midday as USDA Data Shows Shifts in Primal Values
October 31, 2025, 5:08 PM EDT. Lean hog futures were mixed at midday, with nearby contracts up to 42 cents and down as much as 30 cents. The USDA base hog price on Friday morning was $85.41 per cwt, up $0.67. The CME Lean Hog Index slid to $91.83 as of Oct. 29, down $0.33. The pork carcass cutout value rose to $102.86 per cwt, up $2.58. Primal values were mixed: rib, ham and belly lower, while loin +$6.24, butt +$8.40, and picnic +$5.63 higher. Thursday's federally inspected slaughter came in at 483,000 head, for a weekly total of 1.947 million-down 1,000 from last week and 4,939 below the year-ago week. Market tone remains cautious amid evolving supply data.

Stock Market Mania: Global Indices Break Records on AI & Stimulus – Fed’s Next Move Uncertain

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