Global stock markets ended Friday, December 12, 2025 with a familiar late-year mix of optimism and nerves: relief that the U.S. Federal Reserve has shifted toward easier policy, and renewed anxiety that parts of the AI trade may be running ahead of profits.
Overnight, Asian equities climbed—led by Japan’s record-setting rally—while Europe opened firmer but ultimately slipped as tech-linked jitters spread. In the U.S., major indexes fell sharply from recent records as investors reacted to new warnings about margins and spending in the AI ecosystem, alongside a rebound in Treasury yields. [1]
Market snapshot: where major indexes finished on Dec. 12
Here’s how key benchmarks looked by the end of Friday’s session (local closes and latest prints compiled by Reuters/LSEG): [2]
- United States
- Europe
- Asia-Pacific
The big story: “AI bubble” worries return—this time led by capex and margins
Friday’s global risk tone was shaped by one main question: are AI investments translating into profitability quickly enough?
- In the U.S., technology shares led the selloff after Oracle flagged heavy spending and weaker outlook signals, while Broadcom warned about thinner margins on AI systems/custom silicon, reigniting the “AI bubble” debate. [14]
- Reuters described the market’s reaction as another rotation moment—less “fear of missing out” in high-growth AI names, and more scrutiny of cash flows, capex intensity, and payback timelines. [15]
This mattered globally because U.S. mega-cap tech has been a major driver of 2025 equity performance. When that leadership wobbles, indexes from New York to Frankfurt tend to follow—at least for the day.
U.S. stocks: record highs give way to a sharp Friday pullback
On Wall Street, the day’s decline was notable because it followed a record-setting stretch. By the close:
- S&P 500 fell 1.1%, its worst day in about three weeks, closing at 6,827.41
- Nasdaq dropped 1.7% to 23,195.17
- Dow lost 0.5% to 48,458.05 [16]
Two cross-currents amplified the move:
- Rates pushed higher: Rising Treasury yields tend to pressure long-duration growth stocks (the kind most associated with AI themes). [17]
- Positioning into year-end: Reuters noted that after a strong year for risk assets, thin holiday liquidity can make moves look bigger—especially when investors lock in gains or rebalance. [18]
Even after Friday’s slide, the market backdrop remains heavily focused on monetary policy.
The Fed’s rate cut—and what it signals for 2026
The Federal Reserve cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 10 meeting, citing elevated uncertainty and a shift in the balance of risks. [19]
But investors are now debating the next step: how many cuts in 2026, and how soon? Reuters reported that traders have been pricing more easing than policymakers’ projections imply, keeping rates, stocks, and the dollar sensitive to every new data release. [20]
Europe: early gains erased as Wall Street mood sours
European equities started the day with a constructive tone but finished lower as U.S. tech weakness spilled across the Atlantic.
- STOXX 600 ended down 0.53%, with major bourses also lower. [21]
- Reuters reporting syndicated in The Business Times highlighted that Europe’s losses were cushioned by the region’s comparatively smaller tech weighting—yet chip- and AI-exposed names still dragged. [22]
Next catalyst: the ECB’s final decision of the year
Markets are already looking to next week’s central bank cluster—particularly the European Central Bank, as investors watch for signs of divergence versus the Fed’s easing path. [23]
Asia: Japan hits fresh highs, China and Hong Kong advance on policy expectations
While Wall Street faded late, Asia largely strengthened earlier in the global cycle.
Japan: Nikkei rises as Topix hits a record close—BoJ in focus
Japan led the region as investors balanced Fed relief with expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue tightening.
- Nikkei 225: 50,836.55 (+1.37%) [24]
- Reuters also reported that markets have nearly fully priced a BoJ hike to 0.75% from 0.5% at the Dec. 18–19meeting, with messaging expected to emphasize that the pace of future hikes depends on the economy’s response. [25]
Hong Kong & China: gains built on stimulus expectations
Hong Kong stocks climbed as traders positioned for additional support measures following Beijing’s pro-growth signals from its annual economic planning meeting.
- Hang Seng Index gained about 1.8% to 25,976.79; mainland benchmarks were also higher. [26]
Bonds, FX, and the “policy divergence” trade
Friday wasn’t just about equities. The bond and currency markets also reflected a tug-of-war between “Fed easing” and “global divergence.”
Treasury yields rise; German long yields remain elevated
- Reuters reported the U.S. 10-year yield rose to about 4.186%, extending a weekly climb, while Germany’s long-end yields signaled that markets are increasingly open to euro-zone hikes in 2026. [27]
- Reuters global market data showed U.S. 10-year at ~4.194% on the day’s pricing snapshot. [28]
Dollar steadies after a slide; sterling dips on weak UK GDP
The U.S. dollar bounced on Friday but was still tracking a third weekly decline:
- Dollar index: ~98.44, up modestly on the day but down on the week [29]
- EUR/USD: about $1.1735 [30]
- USD/JPY: about 155.93, ahead of the BoJ meeting [31]
- GBP/USD: around $1.3375, after data showed the UK economy shrank 0.1% in the three months to October [32]
One widely watched forecast from BMO: the bank expects the dollar index to soften another 2%–3% in 2026, assuming further Fed easing. [33]
Commodities: oil stays soft, copper’s AI-driven story stays hot—even after a pullback
Oil: supply concerns vs. surplus fears
Oil prices rose Friday on Venezuelan supply concerns, though the week remained weak:
- Reuters reported Brent around $61.71 and WTI around $58.03 during Friday’s move. [34]
Copper: near $12,000 becomes the new headline level
Copper remains one of 2025’s standout “real economy” stories—driven by electrification and AI data-center demand, and constrained supply:
- Reuters said copper was nearing $12,000 per metric ton after a strong year, with a Reuters survey pointing to market deficits of ~124,000 tons in 2025 and ~150,000 tons in 2026. [35]
In the Reuters global markets wrap, copper’s volatility was also a reminder: when risk sentiment turns, even structurally bullish themes can see sharp, fast pullbacks. [36]
Fund flows: investors kept buying equities—especially Europe—despite valuation worries
One of the more important “under the hood” signals on Dec. 12 came from cross-border fund flows:
- Reuters reported global equity funds took in about $12.9 billion in the week to Dec. 10—the biggest weekly inflow in five weeks—while noting continued concerns around tech valuations and AI spending intensity. [37]
- Europe led regional inflows at $6.4 billion, with the U.S. and Asia also seeing net additions. [38]
This combination—inflows continuing even as AI leadership cracks—is a big reason strategists are debating whether Friday was merely a rotation day or the start of a broader de-risking move.
What to watch next week: U.S. data dump + central bank decisions
Friday’s selloff didn’t end the bull case, but it did raise the stakes for next week’s calendar.
Reuters’ “Week Ahead” preview flagged two major U.S. releases—both delayed by the earlier government shutdown backlog:
- U.S. November jobs report: due Tuesday
- U.S. CPI inflation report: due Thursday [39]
On top of that, markets are bracing for a trio of major central-bank decisions:
- Bank of England: expected to cut rates [40]
- European Central Bank: expected to hold steady, with traders increasingly focused on 2026 [41]
- Bank of Japan: expected to hike, with investors watching guidance on the pace of tightening [42]
Bottom line for Dec. 12, 2025
Stock markets today delivered a clear message: the global rally is still alive, but leadership is fragile. The Fed’s easing cycle has supported risk appetite, yet the market is increasingly unwilling to “buy the AI story” without clearer profitability—especially when capex rises and margins get pressured.
Going into the final stretch of 2025, investors are watching three things above all:
- Whether AI spend translates into earnings leverage (not just revenue growth) [43]
- Whether incoming U.S. jobs and inflation data validate (or challenge) the path to further rate cuts [44]
- Whether global central banks diverge—Fed easing versus a potentially firmer ECB/BoJ stance [45]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
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