Wall Street reopened Friday, December 26, for the first full U.S. trading session after Christmas—and the mood was calm on the surface, even as the bigger picture looks anything but ordinary. U.S. stock index futures were largely flat in thin, post-holiday trading, keeping the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 within reach of fresh highs after both indexes logged record closes in the holiday-shortened session earlier this week. [1]
But while equities took a breather, the real fireworks were in commodities: silver briefly surged above $75 an ounce for the first time, gold pushed past $4,500, and platinum and palladium extended a stunning late-year run—moves that traders and analysts blamed in part on rate-cut expectations, geopolitical unease, and the amplifying effect of low-liquidity holiday markets. [2]
The result is a market moment defined by contrasts: stocks steady near records, yields and the dollar moving with shifting Fed expectations, and precious metals acting like a flashing headline about global uncertainty.
Where U.S. stocks stand heading into Friday’s session
The backdrop for today’s “hovering near highs” narrative is Wednesday’s close, when a broad rally in a shortened Christmas Eve session pushed major U.S. benchmarks to record territory. The Dow rose 0.60% to 48,731.16, the S&P 500 gained 0.32% to 6,932.05, and the Nasdaq added 0.22% to 23,613.31. [3]
That advance came despite notably light participation: total volume on U.S. exchanges was 7.61 billion shares, well below the 20-day average of 16.21 billion—a reminder that holiday markets can move on fewer trades than usual. [4]
Early Friday, futures suggested more of the same: by around 6:13 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were down 0.03%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis up 0.02%, and Dow E-minis down 0.11%—a subdued setup as investors returned from the holiday with one eye on year-end positioning and the other on 2026 rate expectations. [5]
The “Santa Claus rally” watch is officially on
Seasonality is a major theme in today’s market coverage for one simple reason: the calendar is now inside the window that many traders use to define the “Santa Claus rally”—the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. According to the framing highlighted by Reuters (citing Stock Trader’s Almanac), that period began on Wednesday and runs through January 5. [6]
Whether the pattern “works” in any given year is always debated, but what’s harder to argue is this: sentiment tends to get louder and price moves can get sharper when liquidity is thin, desks are lightly staffed, and investors are rebalancing into month-end and year-end. [7]
Precious metals steal the spotlight: silver above $75, gold above $4,500, platinum at records
While equity traders watched for incremental new highs, metals traders got a genuine breakout.
Silver hits a milestone
Silver surged past $75 per ounce for the first time, extending an extraordinary 2025 run that Reuters pegged at about +158% year-to-date versus gold’s roughly +72%. [8]
Reuters attributed silver’s meteoric climb to persistent supply deficits, strong industrial demand, and its designation as a U.S. “critical mineral,” with low liquidity magnifying the move. [9]
Gold pushes further into uncharted territory
Gold also set new records, with Reuters reporting spot prices around $4,505 after touching $4,530.60 earlier Friday. [10]
The drivers behind gold’s surge read like a checklist of 2025 macro narratives: expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, central bank buying, ETF inflows, and broader “de-dollarisation” themes—plus geopolitical concerns that tend to boost safe-haven demand. [11]
AP likewise described gold and silver hitting record highs, noting that central banks have been stocking up on precious metals and that expectations of further Fed cuts have helped support buying. [12]
Platinum and palladium join the party
Platinum’s move has been especially eye-catching because its market is smaller and often more volatile than gold’s. Reuters highlighted platinum hitting record highs amid tight supply, with additional fuel from developments tied to Europe’s combustion-engine policy outlook and a rotation of investor interest beyond gold. [13]
Palladium also surged sharply, which Reuters linked to tight supply dynamics, tariff uncertainty, and the ease with which comparatively smaller flows can move these markets. [14]
Copper is in the conversation too
Even outside precious metals, the broader “real assets” narrative is loud as 2025 ends. Investopedia noted that gold, silver, and copper have all been pressing records, citing a combination of rate-cut expectations, a softer dollar, safe-haven demand, and massive infrastructure buildouts tied to EVs, AI data centers, and power-grid expansion. [15]
The macro engine: Fed expectations, jobless claims, and what’s next
Even on a quiet tape, macro expectations are doing the heavy lifting—especially around the Federal Reserve’s path into 2026.
Jobless claims: mixed signals that keep “rate cuts” in play
A key data point supporting the easing narrative came earlier this week. Reuters reported that initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell, while continuing claims rose to 1.923 million, a combination that investors interpreted as consistent with a cooling labor market and supportive of additional rate cuts in the coming year. [16]
What the Fed has already done—and what markets are waiting for
Reuters’ week-ahead coverage underscored how central the Fed remains to the year-end storyline: the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, bringing it to 3.50%–3.75%. [17]
Next week’s potential catalyst: minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, expected Tuesday, which investors will parse for how divided policymakers were—and what that could mean for the timing and pace of future cuts. [18]
The Fed chair factor adds an unusual layer of uncertainty
Another variable hanging over the market is leadership. Reuters reported that investors are watching for President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Fed chair, with Jerome Powell’s term ending in May—a headline risk that could influence both rate expectations and risk appetite as 2026 begins. [19]
Stock movers investors are watching today
Even in a holiday-thin session, single-stock news can generate outsized moves. A few names stood out in premarket and late-week coverage:
- Nvidia: Shares edged higher premarket after Reuters reported the AI chip leader agreed to license chip technology from startup Groq and hire its CEO—another reminder that the AI arms race is still shaping mega-cap narratives. [20]
- Micron: Up again in early trading, extending a powerful December run; Reuters noted the stock had surged roughly 22% so far this month, buoyed by strong earnings expectations. [21]
- Biohaven: Dropped sharply after Reuters reported its experimental depression drug missed the main goal of a mid-stage trial. [22]
- Coupang: Jumped after the company said customer information tied to a leak had been deleted by the suspect, according to Reuters. [23]
And two moves from the Christmas Eve session continued to echo into today’s market narrative:
- Nike: Benefited after Apple CEO Tim Cook bought about $2.95 million in Nike shares; Bloomberg noted Nike was a top performer after the purchase, and Reuters also highlighted the move. [24]
- Intel: Slipped after a report that Nvidia had halted tests related to Intel’s 18A process, according to Reuters. [25]
Global markets: Asia rallies, Europe mostly shut, the dollar softens
With Boxing Day closures across parts of Europe and some Asia-Pacific markets, global liquidity has been uneven—one reason cross-asset moves can look exaggerated.
Reuters reported that Asian stocks rose to a six-week high, led by strength in Japan (where the Topix hit a record) and a standout year in South Korea (where the benchmark index was up about 72% for the year, making it the best-performing major market). [26]
AP described a mixed picture across Asia but similarly emphasized record precious-metal prices and generally light trading conditions, with several markets closed and Wall Street reopening for a full session. [27]
On currencies, Reuters highlighted a weaker U.S. dollar as investors weighed the rate outlook, with the yen “back from the brink” but still fragile—an environment where thin year-end trading can keep intervention speculation alive. [28]
What to watch next as 2025 closes out
The final days of the year often compress several forces into a narrow window:
- Fed minutes next week and any shift in expectations for the first 2026 cut. [29]
- Year-end portfolio adjustments that can drive sector rotation and sudden, liquidity-driven swings. [30]
- The S&P 500’s next milestone: Reuters noted the benchmark was about 1% away from 7,000 as of this late-December stretch—an eye-catching round number that can influence positioning and headlines. [31]
- Whether the rally keeps broadening beyond mega-cap tech. Reuters pointed to improving performance in areas like financials, healthcare, transports, and small caps—evidence of a market trying to rotate rather than simply levitate on a handful of AI-heavy names. [32]
Bottom line
As of December 26, 2025, the story isn’t just “stocks near records”—it’s how they got there and what else is happening at the same time. U.S. equities are steady near all-time highs after record closes earlier this week, but commodities are screaming “macro regime change,” with silver above $75, gold above $4,500, and platinum rewriting the playbook in thin holiday liquidity. [33]
For investors, the next test is whether the calm in stocks holds through year-end rebalancing—and whether 2026 begins with a continuation of the late-December “Santa rally” narrative or a reminder that low-liquidity markets can turn quickly once volume returns. [34]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.bloomberg.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. apnews.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com
