U.S. stock futures are mixed ahead of Friday’s opening bell, with investors weighing fresh volatility in AI-linked mega-cap tech against a widening rally that has pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to new highs. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were pointing modestly higher, while S&P 500 futures edged lower and Nasdaq 100 futures lagged more noticeably—an early signal that markets may keep rotating away from high-multiple growth and toward “value” and cyclical names. [1]
That rotation has been the defining story of the week: Thursday’s session ended with the Dow jumping to a record close and the S&P 500 notching another all-time closing high, even as the Nasdaq slipped under pressure from AI bellwethers. The message from price action is clear: investors still want equity exposure, but they’re becoming far more selective about what they’re willing to pay for AI growth—and how long they’re willing to wait for AI spending to translate into profits. [2]
Below is a detailed, market-focused guide to the biggest headlines, themes, and calendar items to watch before the U.S. stock market opens today (Friday, Dec. 12, 2025).
5 things to watch before the opening bell
1) Futures are mixed—and the Nasdaq is the pressure point
Early premarket action shows a familiar split: Dow-linked futures up slightly, S&P 500 futures slightly down, and Nasdaq 100 futures down more. [3]
Why it matters: when the Nasdaq underperforms while the Dow holds up, it typically reflects one (or both) of these forces:
- Investors are trimming exposure to long-duration growth (where valuations depend heavily on the future).
- Money is rotating into sectors perceived as more resilient to margin pressure and slower growth (financials, industrials, parts of healthcare).
Thursday’s tape fit that pattern: the Dow rose sharply to a record close while the Nasdaq fell, dragged by AI-related weakness. [4]
2) Wall Street is still at record highs—even as “AI bubble” nerves resurface
Thursday’s closing numbers underscored how uneven leadership has become:
- S&P 500: closed at an all-time high (6,901.00).
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at a record (48,704.01).
- Nasdaq Composite: slipped (23,593.86).
- Russell 2000: rose strongly (2,590.61). [5]
This is important context for Friday: the broader market has been able to absorb a hit to AI darlings without breaking its uptrend—a dynamic Reuters describes as a key test for whether markets can “transition in leadership” without a major index-level dislocation. [6]
3) Oracle remains the spark for renewed AI scrutiny
Oracle’s sharp drop has become a flashpoint for the entire AI narrative, not because investors suddenly “stopped believing” in AI—but because the market is re-pricing how AI gets built and who can afford the buildout.
Reuters reports that Oracle’s shares slid as much as 16.5% after the company lifted expected fiscal 2026 capital expenditures by $15 billion versus what it estimated in September, fueling concerns about valuations and debt capacity in the race to become a hyperscaler-class cloud player. [7]
The deeper issue: AI infrastructure spending can be good for revenue growth, but it can also compress margins and stress balance sheets—especially for firms without the cash-flow scale of the largest cloud platforms.
4) Broadcom’s margins are the next “AI reality check”
Even strong AI demand isn’t automatically translating into a clean “earnings beat = stock up” outcome.
Broadcom posted upbeat revenue guidance, but signaled a dip in quarterly margins due to a higher mix of AI revenue, and the stock fell in response—another sign investors are no longer rewarding AI exposure at any price. [8]
Takeaway for Friday: if AI-related names trade poorly even on solid numbers, it’s a reminder that expectations (and valuation) are the real catalyst—more than the headline results.
5) A major index event is looming: Nasdaq 100 reshuffle after the close
If you trade around index flows (or follow them for volatility clues), Friday’s calendar has a big item: the Nasdaq 100 annual reshuffle is expected after the market close, with changes effective Dec. 22. [9]
A key focus is Strategy (MSTR)—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, now widely seen as a “bitcoin treasury” play. Reuters reports some analysts argue Strategy may not qualify for inclusion based on business-model classification, and estimates suggest removal could drive around $1.6 billion in passive outflows (per Jefferies’ index strategy estimates cited by Reuters). [10]
Why it matters before the open: even though the announcement is expected after Friday’s close, positioning can start earlier—particularly in stocks seen as “on the bubble” of inclusion/exclusion.
The macro backdrop: a Fed cut, a likely pause, and a data backlog
The Fed: rates were cut again, but officials signaled “slow down”
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis-point cut, bringing the policy rate to 3.50%–3.75%, but also indicated it will likely pause further cuts while monitoring inflation that “remains somewhat elevated” and labor-market uncertainty. [11]
What’s new—and market-moving—is the gap between:
- Fed projections: policymakers pointing to a slower easing path (Reuters notes projections implying only one cut next year and one in 2027). [12]
- Market expectations: still leaning toward more cuts than policymakers project. [13]
In practical terms: Friday’s session may remain sensitive to moves in Treasury yields and “rate-cut odds,” because the market is trying to reconcile what it wants (easier policy) with what the Fed signaled (patience and data dependence). [14]
The economic calendar problem: the “scoreboard went dark,” and now data is coming in batches
One of the biggest underappreciated drivers of volatility into year-end is the backlog of major data releases following the 43-day federal government shutdown.
Key upcoming releases now have revised dates:
- Employment Situation (Nov. 2025): Tuesday, Dec. 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET [15]
- Consumer Price Index (Nov. 2025): Thursday, Dec. 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET [16]
Reuters adds that the shutdown-delayed November jobs report is expected to show about 35,000 jobs added, according to a Reuters poll cited in its “Take Five” outlook. [17]
Why it matters today: even if Friday’s economic release schedule is relatively quiet, markets are effectively “front-running” next week’s data dump—especially after a Fed meeting where officials emphasized uncertainty and the need for clearer labor and inflation signals. [18]
Global markets and cross-asset signals: what’s moving overnight
If U.S. stocks are the headline, cross-asset markets are the subtext—and they’ve been sending a few consistent signals into Friday:
The dollar is softer, yields are steady-to-firmer, and commodities remain active
Reuters’ global markets wrap described:
- The dollar hovering near a two-month low (around 98.37 on the dollar index in that report). [19]
- The 10-year Treasury yield around 4.1586% in the same snapshot. [20]
- Copper hitting record highs in Shanghai, helped by expectations tied to China’s fiscal stance. [21]
- Oil firming amid geopolitical and supply developments (Reuters cited sanctions-related moves involving Venezuela-linked shipments in its global wrap). [22]
Translation for U.S. traders: if yields climb while AI-growth stocks are already fragile, the Nasdaq can stay under pressure—even if the Dow and broader market remain supported by rotation.
Stocks and sectors in focus today
Here are the names/themes most likely to drive premarket chatter and early-session momentum.
AI infrastructure and semis: “show me the payoff”
- Oracle (ORCL): in focus after its capex outlook shift reignited valuation and balance-sheet concerns around AI buildouts. [23]
- Broadcom (AVGO): watched closely after warning margins could dip due to a higher AI revenue mix—another “AI economics” datapoint. [24]
A crucial nuance from Reuters: investors aren’t necessarily abandoning AI, but they’re becoming more selective—especially with companies that don’t have hyperscaler-level cash flows. [25]
Media + AI: Disney’s OpenAI deal is a new template (and a new battleground)
Disney’s announcement that it will invest $1 billion in OpenAI and license characters for OpenAI’s Sora tool brings AI directly into the intellectual-property and labor debate in Hollywood, with unions signaling compensation and rights concerns. [26]
For markets, this is notable less as a “Disney trade” and more as a signal: large legacy IP owners are shifting from simply suing AI companies to also partnering and licensing—potentially reshaping how content economics work.
Healthcare: Eli Lilly adds another catalyst to an already-strong theme
Eli Lilly reported late-stage results for retatrutide showing strong weight loss outcomes in patients with obesity and knee osteoarthritis, reinforcing Lilly’s leadership in the obesity drug space. [27]
Why it matters premarket: healthcare has been part of the broader leadership beyond AI, and major biotech/pharma catalysts can support the “rotation” narrative that’s been helping the Dow and Russell outperform.
Index/crypto crossover: Strategy (MSTR) and Nasdaq 100 flows
As noted above, Strategy’s potential vulnerability in the Nasdaq 100 reshuffle is a unique intersection of:
- index committee rules,
- passive fund flows,
- bitcoin-linked equity volatility.
Reuters highlights how sensitive these “digital asset treasury” companies can be to bitcoin moves—and why classification questions are now central to index inclusion. [28]
The setup for the open: what could move markets first?
Going into the bell, the highest-probability drivers of the first hour look like this:
- Tech sentiment checks: If AI names bounce, it could stabilize the Nasdaq; if they continue sliding, rotation may intensify rather than reverse. [29]
- Rates tape: Any notable move in the 10-year yield can quickly spill into mega-cap tech performance. [30]
- Positioning into next week’s data: With the delayed jobs report (Dec. 16) and CPI (Dec. 18) now circled in red, traders may stay cautious into the weekend. [31]
- Index reshuffle anticipation: Watch for unusual end-of-day moves in “borderline” Nasdaq 100 components and likely additions/deletions. [32]
Bottom line
Friday’s premarket is shaping up as a classic late-cycle, late-year tape: record highs in the broad market, widening participation beyond tech, but with real stress showing up in the most crowded and valuation-sensitive corners—especially AI infrastructure plays. [33]
With a Fed that’s signaling patience and a backlog of top-tier economic data hitting next week, the most important “before the open” mindset may be simple: expect rotation and stock-specific volatility to remain the rule—not the exception—into year-end. [34]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
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