- U.S. futures mixed: Early Oct 30 trading saw Dow futures down ~0.15%, S&P 500 futures up ~0.03%, and Nasdaq futures up ~0.04% [1] as markets digested major news.
- Fed pause dampens enthusiasm: On Oct 29 the Fed cut rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, but Chair Powell’s warning that a December cut isn’t guaranteed tempered the rally [2] [3]. Traders still expect roughly two more cuts by year-end [4].
- Mixed market close: On Oct 29 the Nasdaq hit a fresh record (23,958), the S&P 500 closed flat near 6,890, and the Dow finished slightly lower (~47,632) [5]. Buyers were cautious late in the session.
- Trade détente news: President Trump said he struck a one-year “mini-deal” with China, cutting some tariffs (e.g. rare-earth levies suspended, fentanyl-related tariffs at 10%) in exchange for resumed Chinese soybean purchases [6]. Analysts call it a “tactical pause” or “relief rally” rather than a sweeping agreement [7] [8].
- Big Tech earnings: Investors are focused on Apple, Amazon, and other megacaps reporting after hours. Nvidia jumped ~3% on Oct 29 (to ~$207) on AI mega-contract news [9]. After the close, Microsoft slid ~4% on an OpenAI charge and Meta fell ~7.5% on a big tax hit, while Alphabet surged ~6–7% on better-than-expected sales [10] [11].
- Global markets: Asian markets were mixed: Tokyo’s Nikkei futures were roughly flat (Nikkei +0.04%) while Hong Kong’s HSI and China’s Shanghai lost ~0.3–0.9% [12]. In Europe, STOXX 600 stock futures were flat and FTSE 100 futures in London were essentially unchanged (after an 8-day rally ended) [13]. Investors are eyeing Thursday’s ECB meeting and more earnings.
- Oil/Gold/Crypto: Oil futures rose (Brent ~$64.90, WTI ~$60.50) on large U.S. inventory draws [14]. Gold eased off its all-time highs near $4,300, trading around $3,970/oz as U.S.-China optimism reduced safe-haven demand [15]. Bitcoin held near $110,000 (all-time highs), dipping on Powell’s caution then rebounding after Trump-Xi news [16].
- Market sentiment: Analysts noted investors are parsing Fed vs. fundamentals. “Chairman Powell indicated that another rate cut is not a foregone conclusion,” said Oliver Pursche of Wealthspire Advisors [17]. Angeles Investments’ Michael Rosen added that Powell’s comments “took some shine off the market” but stressed “this is a temporary reaction” since strong earnings “ultimately drive equities” [18].
Mixed U.S. Market Open as Fed Caution Sets In
U.S. stock futures opened tentatively on Oct 30, reflecting uncertainty about growth and Fed policy. By 4:23 a.m. EDT, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 futures were each up only a few hundredths of a percent, while Dow futures were down about 0.15% [19]. Traders were coming off a choppy Oct 29 session, during which the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut (bringing the fed funds target to 3.75–4.00%). However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that further easing this year was not assured. This surprised some investors who had been pricing in a high probability of a December cut. (Indeed, futures markets still embed roughly two more cuts by year-end [20] – a “sea change” from earlier in the year, as TS2.Tech notes that cutting is seen as “a major tailwind for equities” [21].)
Stocks initially popped on the Fed’s dovish move, but then softened after Powell’s press conference. After Wednesday’s close, the Dow was slightly lower (around 47,632) and S&P flat (~6,890), while the Nasdaq index ended at a fresh record high (23,958) [22]. Nvidia’s relentless rally (driving the Nasdaq) helped keep that index afloat. But the broader sentiment was more cautious. As Angeles Investments’ CIO Michael Rosen observed, “Powell’s remarks took some shine off the market – but this is a temporary reaction. It is earnings that ultimately drive equities, and those earnings have been strong” [23]. Wealth advisors echoed that line: Oliver Pursche of Wealthspire noted that Powell made clear “another rate cut is not a foregone conclusion,” which trimmed some of the prior exuberance [24].
Technically, analysts point out U.S. markets remain historically overextended on the upside, led by tech and AI-related stocks. Saxo Capital’s Charu Chanana called the Trump–Xi meeting an “early attempt to reset the U.S.–China narrative,” but noted that markets are engaged in “risk-managed trading while investors wait for…clarity” [25]. Likewise, RBC’s Karen Jorritsma said any easing of geopolitical risk should, in theory, boost appetite: “It’s positive the global geopolitical situation could become more stable…risk-on trades would become more popular as more stability is going to be welcomed by investors” [26].
Nasdaq & the AI boom: The tech-heavy Nasdaq, now up ~19% YTD, is leading the charge. Nvidia in particular is setting records: after-hours on Oct 29, its stock crossed the psychologically enormous $5 trillion market cap level. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and other mega-cap firms are headed into earnings this week, which could stoke volatility. For instance, Microsoft reported mixed results: its post-close drop of ~4% came on news of a $3.1bn OpenAI-related charge [27]. Meta’s 7.5% plunge after a huge tax hit added pressure on tech sentiment, while Alphabet’s 6–7% jump after strong sales gave the market a counter-point [28] [29].
China-US Trade Truce Offers Only “Tactical Pause”
Global investors are also digesting the surprisingly cordial meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in Busan. On Oct 30 Trump touted a “deal” to partially roll back tariffs (e.g. rare-earth mineral taxes and fentanyl-related tariffs) in exchange for resumed Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities [30]. The United States said it would cut some China tariffs to 47% from 57%, and China agreed to pause rare-earth export restrictions for a year [31] [32].
Initially, the news gave stocks a boost. Commodities like oil and soybeans rallied on the prospect of renewed trade flows [33] [34]. However, analysts emphasized the deal’s limits. BNP Paribas noted only a “mini-deal” had been struck, and Masahiko Loo of State Street said it looks more like a “tactical pause or temporary de-escalation, rather than a structural breakthrough” [35]. Maybank’s Tareck Horchani summed up the cautious tone: the truce was “likely to be greeted as a relief rally rather than a structural reset…overall, this looks like a tactical pause rather than a strategic breakthrough” [36].
Asian equity futures were mixed on these developments. Japan’s Nikkei futures were flat (Tokyo stocks were modestly up ~0.04%), whereas Chinese and Hong Kong futures lagged (HSI –0.26%, Shanghai –0.73%, Shenzhen –0.93% on Oct 30) [37]. Market participants noted that with the core tech dispute (e.g. Nvidia chip curbs) largely untouched, a big risk-off event remains possible if talks sour again.
Europe Steady Before ECB; FTSE Pauses Rally
In Europe, markets were relatively stable. Early Oct 30 futures had STOXX 600 futures off just 0.1%, while FTSE 100 futures in London were roughly flat after the index ended Wednesday up 0.6% [38]. German DAX futures likewise showed little change. Investors await the European Central Bank’s rate decision later today (the ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady) and corporate earnings (Mercedes, GSK, etc. released quarterly results with mixed impact).
Sector moves were uneven: strong earnings helped buoy healthcare and autos (e.g. GSK +6.6% on raised guidance, Mercedes +4.4% on share buybacks) [39], whereas exporters like SAP and Adidas faltered on fresh tariff concerns. The overall tone remained “earnings-driven,” Saxo noted [40], mirroring Wall Street’s focus.
Commodities and Crypto: Riding the News Waves
Oil: Crude futures climbed on Oct 29/30 amid large stock draws. The U.S. EIA reported almost 7 million barrels of crude draw last week (versus 0.2m expected), sharply above forecasts [41]. Brent added ~$0.50 to about $64.90 on Oct 29 close, WTI gained to ~$60.48 [42]. Analysts like Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group quipped “Where’s the glut?…the longer the glut doesn’t hit, the more we will question whether it exists” [43], reflecting renewed demand optimism. Geopolitical hopes (trade deal, U.S.-South Korea agreement) and OPEC+ supply talks also underpin oil’s gains, though OPEC+ hinted at a small output boost in December [44].
Gold & safe havens: Gold eased from record highs as U.S.-China tensions thawed. Spot gold dipped ~2.7% on Oct 27 to just above $4,000/oz [45], making it less of a haven. Capital Economics even trimmed its long-term forecast. Still, analysts warn it remains poised: CPM Group’s Jeff Christian noted gold’s drop reflects a reversal of earlier trade-tension “technical selling,” but said most investors still expect higher prices eventually [46].
Bitcoin & crypto: Bitcoin edged around $110,000 – near its all-time high – in premarket trade. It fell briefly to about $108k after Powell’s hawkish tone but recovered as Trump revealed details of the trade mini-deal [47]. Major altcoins took hits; XRP and Dogecoin tumbled ~4%, Ether traded near $3,900. CoinDesk noted that although the Fed’s shift to easier policy should be positive long-term for crypto, volatility is high: “Bitcoin reversed some of the post-Fed losses early Thursday” after the Trump-Xi summit [48].
Technical Outlook & Investor Mood
Technically, indexes look overbought after a two-week rally. The VIX volatility index has fallen to about the mid-teens, suggesting calm markets for now [49]. Still, many hedge funds and traders have reduced bullish exposure. On charts, the S&P 500 faces resistance near its record levels (around 6,900), while many futures and options indicators show a modest skew toward downside hedging. In the near term, key support rests at Wednesday’s lows (S&P ~6,785).
Investor focus will shift quickly to quarter-end positioning and the massive earnings slate. Later today: Apple and Amazon report after the bell (cohort with Elizabeth Warren’s tech meeting commentary). Tomorrow brings JPMorgan, Berkshire Hathaway, Alphabet, and more. “It’s earnings that ultimately drive equities,” Angeles Investments’ Rosen reminded traders [50]. If results broadly beat forecasts, that could reignite the rally. But for now, markets seem poised to trade sideways—susceptible to any fresh cue from policy or politics.
Sources: We report market data and analyses from leading outlets and analysts. Notable references include Reuters market dispatches [51] [52] [53] [54] [55], TS2.Tech market commentary [56], Saxo Bank and TipRanks pre-market summaries [57] [58], and CoinDesk crypto coverage [59]. Each source is cited in context above.
References
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