Stocks Surge as Trump Eases China Tariff Threats – Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Ignite Rally

13 October 2025

U.S. stock futures jumped Monday (Oct 13) after President Trump softened his rhetoric on China, easing fears of a renewed trade war ^[1] ^[2]. By early trading, Dow e-minis were up ~0.9%, S&P 500 e-minis ~+1.3%, and Nasdaq e-minis ~+1.8% ^[3]. Pre-market gains were broad, with major tech and “AI” stocks leading the way.
Tech and AI stocks rallied: Nvidia rose ~+3.3%, Tesla +2.8%, Meta +1.9%, Alphabet +1.6% and Microsoft +1.5% pre-market ^[4]. These “Magnificent Seven” names had powered a Nasdaq record high last week ^[5], and quickly rebounded after Friday’s sell-off. Crypto-related stocks also climbed as Bitcoin climbed back above $115K ^[6].
Safe havens glowed: Gold hit new records, trading near $4,100/oz (up ~1.5% Monday morning) as investors sought safety ^[7]. West Texas Intermediate oil was around $60/bbl (briefly higher by ~1.8%) ^[8]. Currencies: the U.S. dollar index inched up, boosting demand for alternative assets.
Banks and key stocks: JPMorgan Chase climbed ~+1.4% after unveiling a $1.5 trillion strategic investment plan ^[9]. Morgan Stanley raised Tesla and Rocket Lab price targets (the latter’s stock jumped +7.1%) ^[10]. MB Materials soared +10% on China’s rare-earth export curbs ^[11]. Broad sectors: Europe’s STOXX 600 rose ~+0.5% ^[12] as the U.S. tone lifted global risk appetite.
Earnings season begins: Markets now look to Q3 results. Major U.S. banks (JPM, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, etc.) report Tuesday ^[13]. S&P 500 Q3 profits are expected to grow ~+8.8% year-over-year, down from +13.8% in Q2 ^[14]. Analysts note that 22% of S&P companies have guided to earnings beats (the highest in a year) ^[15].
Fed & economy: The U.S. government shutdown enters ~Day 13, delaying key data (jobs, inflation) ^[16] ^[17]. Fed officials have turned more dovish: Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said the labor market is “weak” and he is open to quarter-point rate cuts ^[18]. Markets now see ~95% odds of a 25bp cut at the Oct. 28–29 Fed meeting ^[19]. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.10% (down ~4 bp) ^[20], also supporting stocks.

U.S. stock futures roared higher Monday as traders seized on softer trade rhetoric. Trump had threatened on Friday “massive” new tariffs on China, briefly sparking the Nasdaq’s worst single-day drop in months ^[21]. He warned of 100% levies and cutting a summit with China’s Xi Jinping, which sent Friday’s S&P 500 down 2.7% and Nasdaq down 3.6% ^[22]. But over the weekend Trump posted on Truth Social that “it will all be fine” with China and the U.S. did not want to “hurt” its economy ^[23]. This reprieve calmed markets. Dow futures added +1.0%, S&P futures +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.9% by mid-morning ^[24].

“We think the bull market remains intact,” say UBS analysts, urging that pullbacks are buying opportunities ^[25]. Capital Economics concurs: “This latest dispute could still blow over if cool heads prevail,” they write ^[26]. Indeed, chip titans AMD, Nvidia and ON Semiconductor all popped ~+4% premarket ^[27]. (Nvidia alone added ~3.3% ^[28], after Friday’s dip.) As one Instinet strategist notes, hype around AI and bets on Fed easing have already driven stocks to new highs in recent weeks ^[29] ^[30]. The question is whether this week’s earnings will justify those levels now that economic data are muted by the shutdown.

Meanwhile, the U.S. shutdown — now nearly two weeks old — is beginning to bite. Many government reports (unemployment claims, trade data, and the Oct inflation reading on Oct 15) are postponed ^[31]. Bloomberg Economics estimates ~640,000 federal workers furloughed, potentially raising the U.S. jobless rate to ~4.7% ^[32]. Investors worry that unseen bad news is piling up, but without fresh data the market is focusing on corporate news. At the same time, Libor-based interest rates are drifting lower. Fed officials have signaled more rate cuts ahead, and Fed futures fully price a 25bp cut by Oct 29 ^[33].

Key sectors: Tech and growth names led the advance. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 touched an all-time high last week on AI optimism ^[34]. On Monday’s open, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet all gapped higher ^[35]. Tesla climbed ~+2.8% after a recent sell-off. Financials get spotlight this week: JPMorgan added 1.4% ^[36] (on its investment plan), Wells Fargo and Citigroup also popped on positive earnings updates. Industrial/defense stocks (Lockheed Martin, Boeing) and energy names (free from last week’s oil selloff) were mixed as crude rebounded slightly.

Global markets: Europe mirrored the U.S. rally. As ts2.tech reports, Europe’s STOXX 600 jumped ~+0.5% Monday after Mr. Trump’s conciliatory China remarks ^[37]. Germany’s DAX rose +0.6%, France’s CAC +0.7%, and the UK FTSE 100 inched higher. In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei is flat ahead of U.S. trading; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 were closed for holiday.

Commodities & FX: Gold spiked to new records as traders piled into safe havens on Friday’s scare. By Monday it was still near all-time highs: spot gold rose to ~$4,078/oz (+1.5%) ^[38] (silver also hit records). Crude oil rebounded after last week’s sharp drop: WTI jumped ~$1 to ~$60/bbl (+1.8%) ^[39]. The U.S. dollar held steady; Bitcoin climbed to ~$115K as crypto-linked equities recovered ^[40].

Expert commentary: Analysts caution the path remains choppy. “The path for markets in the near term depend heavily on the path escalation takes,” say UBS Global Wealth strategists ^[41]. But they add that longer-term bulls remain dominant, and recent dips could reward patient investors adding equity exposure. Capital Economics analysts note that Friday’s tariff flare-up may still “blow over” with cooler heads or a U.S.-China summit to defuse tensions ^[42]. The immediate catalyst will be corporate earnings – especially big banks, which could set the tone amid the economic data blackout.

Outlook: With stocks off their mid-week lows, some strategists view Monday’s rally as a buy-the-dip opportunity. Fed speakers (and October minutes from the July meeting on Oct 14) will be watched for further clues on policy easing. Any breakthrough on funding the U.S. government or new trade truce with China could send stocks higher. Conversely, if data continue to surprise lower or trade talks deteriorate, volatility may return. For now, the market sits near record territory. As one Wall Street newsletter puts it: after this “trump” of a scare, “stocks bounce back in relief as China fears ebb”, setting up a crucial earnings and Fed-packed few weeks ahead ^[43] ^[44].

Sources: Latest market data and commentary from Reuters, Nasdaq.com/Barchart, 24/7 Wall St., Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, MarketScreener, and TechStock² (ts2.tech) ^[45] ^[46] ^[47] ^[48] ^[49] ^[50]. All cited experts’ comments and statistics are from these outlets. (Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P futures via multiple sources as noted.)

Stocks Tumble on Trump's Tariff Threats | The Close 10/10/2025

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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Stocks Surge as Trump Eases China Tariff Threats – Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Ignite Rally

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