On Wednesday, 10 December 2025, Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) – the former MicroStrategy and now the market’s most prominent listed Bitcoin treasury vehicle – slid into the close and softened further after the bell, even as broader U.S. equities rallied on the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut.
Strategy’s Class A shares finished regular trading around $184–185, down roughly 2.3% from Tuesday’s $188.99 close, on volume that ran nearly 50% above the recent daily average. [1] After hours, the stock traded near $182, extending the decline by another ~1.5%. [2]
At these levels, MSTR is:
- Almost 60% below its 52‑week high near $457,
- Still roughly 20% above its early‑December low around $155–166,
- Changing hands at a market cap just above $53 billion and a trailing P/E ratio near 8.6, numbers driven far more by Bitcoin mark‑to‑market than classic software profits. TechStock²+2google.com+2
For traders heading into the Thursday, 11 December 2025 open, Strategy Inc sits at the intersection of three forces: Bitcoin’s renewed volatility around $92k, a fresh $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve meant to protect dividends and debt service, and a sharply divided research landscape on whether MSTR is a bargain or a value trap.
1. How Strategy Inc traded on 10 December 2025
Intraday and after-hours action
According to exchange data and multiple price providers, Strategy shares:
- Opened Wednesday just below $189, following a 2.9% pop on Tuesday linked to the latest Bitcoin accumulation headlines. [3]
- Traded between roughly $180 and $198 during the session, with heavy volume of ~22.3 million shares – about 48–60% above normal turnover. [4]
- Closed regular hours near $184.64, down about 2.3% on the day. [5]
- Fell further to around $181.89 in after‑hours trading by just before 8 p.m. U.S. Eastern time. [6]
The pullback came despite a broad equity rally: the S&P 500 closed sharply higher after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and signalled a cautious path on future easing. [7] In that context, Strategy’s underperformance again underscored how tightly MSTR trades to Bitcoin rather than to macro‑equity indices.
2. The Bitcoin connection: why BTC still drives the story
Strategy’s equity is effectively a high‑beta wrapper on Bitcoin:
- The company now holds roughly 660,000 BTC, about 3% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist, after its latest round of purchases. [8]
- Those coins have been accumulated at a total cost of about $49.35 billion, with an average purchase price around $74,700 per BTC. [9]
Bitcoin itself spent Wednesday near $92,000, slipping slightly on the day after testing the mid‑$94,000s and swinging on the Fed decision. [10]
Because Strategy marks its Bitcoin to fair value under the updated crypto accounting standard, its reported earnings and book value move almost one‑for‑one with BTC. [11] That makes MSTR less like a traditional software stock and more like a leveraged Bitcoin closed‑end fund with a small analytics business attached, a framing repeated in recent sell‑side and independent analyses. [12]
3. Fresh corporate moves: nearly $1B of new Bitcoin and a $1.44B cash reserve
Massive December Bitcoin purchase
In an SEC filing dated 8 December, Strategy disclosed that it:
- Bought 10,624 BTC between 1–7 December 2025 for approximately $962.7 million,
- Paid an average price of about $90,615 per BTC,
- Brought total holdings to 660,624 BTC, acquired for roughly $49.35 billion. [13]
These purchases were funded by capital markets, not operating cash flow:
- The company sold about 5.13 million MSTR common shares and 442,536 STRD preferred shares, raising roughly $963 million in net proceeds over the same period. [14]
This is consistent with Strategy’s 2025 playbook: use at‑the‑market (ATM) equity and preferred offerings to expand its Bitcoin stack, even if that dilutes existing common shareholders and increases fixed income obligations.
The $1.44 billion USD reserve and guidance reset
On 1 December 2025, Strategy announced the creation of a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve specifically earmarked to pay dividends on its preferred securities and interest on its debt. [15]
Key points from that press release and parallel coverage:
- The reserve is initially large enough to cover about 21 months of dividend and interest payments, with a stated goal of eventually spanning 24 months or more. [16]
- The USD reserve was funded entirely through stock sales under the ATM program – effectively swapping new equity for cash to de‑risk fixed‑income obligations. [17]
- At the same time, Strategy slashed its 2025 earnings guidance, moving from a prior scenario that assumed year‑end Bitcoin at $150,000 to a new range of $85,000–$110,000 and widening the earnings range from a potential $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 billion loss. [18]
In other words, management publicly acknowledged bitcoin’s drawdown and baked a much cooler BTC trajectory into its models, while trying to reassure bond and preferred holders that cash will be there for coupons and dividends even in a prolonged crypto slump.
4. What research and analysts are saying as of 10 December 2025
Coverage dated 9–10 December has been unusually dense. The key themes:
MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy” and triple‑digit implied upside
A MarketBeat note on 9 December, reiterated across outlets on 10 December, highlights that: [19]
- Strategy’s Q3 2025 earnings crushed expectations with EPS of $8.42 vs a consensus loss of $0.10 and revenue of $128.7 million, up about 11% year‑on‑year. [20]
- Wall Street consensus currently sits at “Moderate Buy”, with most brokers at Buy/Overweight and only a handful at Hold.
- The average 12‑month price target clusters in the high‑$400s, implying roughly 150–170% upside from the mid‑$180s level, assuming Bitcoin cooperates. [21]
However, MarketBeat also points out that standard valuation multiples (P/E, price‑to‑book) are heavily distorted by Bitcoin’s fair‑value accounting, and notes Strategy’s beta above 3, underscoring extreme volatility. [22]
Seeking Alpha: “Don’t buy the dip”
In contrast, a newly published Seeking Alpha article titled “Strategy: Don’t Buy The Dip” on 10 December takes a much more cautious stance: [23]
- The author characterizes MSTR as “still a leveraged Bitcoin bet” trading roughly 18% above its estimated BTC net‑asset value per share, leaving downside if either Bitcoin falls or the equity premium compresses.
- Their rating moves from Strong Sell to Hold, but they still decline to recommend new buying, even after the drawdown.
- The piece emphasizes dilution risk, noting that Strategy’s basic share count is up around 20% year‑to‑date and highlighting a particularly large issuance on 1 December. [24]
The takeaway from this camp: existing Bitcoin bulls may tolerate the volatility, but “buying the dip” in MSTR is not obviously attractive at current levels.
24/7 Wall St and others: painful 2025 for late buyers
A 24/7 Wall St analysis framed 2025 as a harsh year for new MSTR shareholders:
- A hypothetical $1,000 invested in Strategy at the start of 2025 is now worth roughly $637, a 37% loss, while the S&P 500 is up around 16% over the same period. [25]
- The piece estimates more than 20% dilution for common shareholders in 2025 from repeated ATM offerings and preferred issuance. [26]
Similar coverage in the Los Angeles Times and other outlets places Strategy at the centre of a broader “crypto‑stock bubble” that has deflated sharply across digital‑asset treasuries and miners. [27]
Bullish long‑term calls still exist
On the bullish side, several recent analyses still portray Strategy as Wall Street’s favourite crypto stock:
- One widely circulated piece notes that, even after a roughly 60% share price rout, only three of 19 analysts covering the company have moved off Buy or Overweight recommendations. [28]
- Some bullish scenarios assume Bitcoin could reach $200k+ by 2026, with implied upside of 150–200% for MSTR if that materialises, especially given its enlarged BTC holdings. [29]
But these optimistic forecasts hinge critically on sustained Bitcoin appreciation and continued tolerance for equity and preferred issuance. Even bullish commentators repeatedly warn that MSTR’s risk profile is far higher than conventional large‑cap tech.
5. Index inclusion fight: Strategy vs. MSCI
One of the most important 10 December headlines had nothing to do with day‑to‑day price moves and everything to do with index eligibility.
MSCI is consulting on a proposal to exclude “Digital Asset Treasury Companies” (DATs) – firms with more than 50% of their assets in crypto – from its flagship equity benchmarks. Strategy is the poster child for that category. TechStock²+1
On 10 December, Strategy:
- Submitted a formal response to MSCI arguing that DATs should be treated as operating companies, not investment funds, pointing to its software and capital‑markets businesses. [30]
- Labelled the 50% digital‑asset threshold “discriminatory, arbitrary and unworkable,” noting that BTC’s volatility would cause companies to pop in and out of eligibility. [31]
- Warned that excluding Bitcoin‑heavy firms could distort index representation, force selling by passive funds and undermine U.S. leadership in digital‑asset finance. [32]
If MSCI ultimately proceeds with exclusions in early 2026, MSTR could face mechanical selling pressure from index‑tracking vehicles. For now, the fight is still at the consultation stage, but traders will be watching closely for any update.
6. Institutional positioning: big holders are still adding
Even as the stock sold off into the close on 10 December, fresh regulatory filings indicate that large institutional investors have been increasing exposure:
- State Street Corp disclosed that it purchased about 495,000 MSTR shares, according to a MarketBeat alert on 10 December. [33]
- A separate filing shows Baird Financial Group increasing its position, with the article noting that Strategy shares were recently up 2.9% in heavy trading when that report was compiled. [34]
Combined with earlier data showing nearly 60% institutional and hedge‑fund ownership, this reinforces the view that MSTR has become a core speculative vehicle for sophisticated investors as well as retail traders. [35]
7. Macro backdrop: Fed cut, Bitcoin volatility and crypto sentiment
The macro context on 10 December is hard to ignore:
- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, with markets interpreting the decision and commentary as dovish enough to push major stock indices toward new highs. [36]
- Bitcoin was whipsawed around the Fed decision, briefly pushing above $94,000 before fading back toward the low $92,000s by the end of the U.S. session. [37]
- Crypto sentiment gauges have swung from “extreme greed” earlier in the year to a far more neutral or cautious stance as traders digest higher volatility and the possibility of further macro shocks. [38]
For Strategy Inc, that translates into an environment where macro news can move the stock 10–20% in either direction in a matter of days, even if nothing changes in the underlying software business.
8. Key things to watch before the 11 December 2025 open
Heading into Thursday’s session, traders and investors in Strategy Inc stock may focus on a handful of catalysts and risk markers:
- Overnight Bitcoin price action
- Every $1,000 move in BTC now swings the notional value of Strategy’s holdings by roughly $660 million. A sharp move away from the ~$92k zone in Asia–Europe trading could heavily influence MSTR’s pre‑market quotes. [39]
- Follow‑through (or reversal) of Wednesday’s sell‑off
- After a 2.3% regular‑session drop and further after‑hours weakness, Thursday’s open will show whether buyers view the mid‑$180s as attractive support or whether momentum traders are still unloading exposure. [40]
- Updates on MSCI’s DAT proposal
- Any new comments from MSCI or other index providers could sharpen the market’s view on whether index‑exclusion risk is a 2026 story or a more immediate overhang. Strategy’s own lobbying push became public only hours before Wednesday’s close. [41]
- Options and short‑interest dynamics into week‑end expiry
- Elevated volatility and the stock’s large move from its 52‑week high have attracted heavy options trading and short‑interest. Positioning ahead of Friday’s weekly option expiry could amplify intraday swings. [42]
- Further commentary on Strategy’s capital structure
- New research could react to the $1.44B USD reserve, the latest $962.7M Bitcoin purchase, and ongoing equity and preferred issuance, repricing both upside and solvency risk for 2026. [43]
9. Bottom line: what Wednesday’s after-hours action says about MSTR
As of the close and after‑hours on 10 December 2025, Strategy Inc stock is:
- Deep in drawdown from its 2025 peak but well off the month’s lows,
- Backed by a huge, still‑growing Bitcoin hoard and a newly fortified USD reserve,
- Surrounded by conflicting narratives – from “leveraged BTC fund you should avoid” to “high‑risk vehicle with triple‑digit upside if Bitcoin rips higher.” [44]
For Thursday’s open, the core reality remains unchanged:
Owning Strategy Inc (MSTR) is essentially a leveraged bet on Bitcoin plus a complex capital structure.
Short‑term swings will continue to track BTC price, index‑inclusion headlines, and investor appetite for high‑volatility crypto proxies far more than traditional software metrics.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.google.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.google.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.strategy.com, 9. btctimes.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.strategy.com, 12. www.home.saxo, 13. btctimes.com, 14. btctimes.com, 15. www.strategy.com, 16. www.strategy.com, 17. www.strategy.com, 18. www.strategy.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. seekingalpha.com, 24. seekingalpha.com, 25. 247wallst.com, 26. 247wallst.com, 27. www.latimes.com, 28. www.bloomberg.com, 29. www.investors.com, 30. btctimes.com, 31. btctimes.com, 32. btctimes.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. www.coindesk.com, 38. fortune.com, 39. btctimes.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. btctimes.com, 42. optioncharts.io, 43. www.strategy.com, 44. www.economist.com
