Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) ended Christmas Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025) with investors still debating a simple but high-stakes question: is Strategy “de-risking” responsibly—or losing momentum as the market’s favorite Bitcoin proxy?
In a holiday-shortened session (U.S. stocks closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET), MSTR briefly set a fresh 52-week low before stabilizing into the close. After the bell, trading remained choppy but relatively contained—typical for a low-liquidity holiday tape. [1]
One critical practical note before we get into the drivers and forecasts: U.S. stock markets are closed on Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day). The next regular U.S. equity session is Friday, Dec. 26, 2025. [2]
MSTR after the bell: where Strategy stock stands tonight
Price action (Dec. 24, 2025):
- MSTR traded in a wide band and tagged an intraday low around the mid‑$155 area (a new 52-week low reported by multiple market feeds), then rebounded into the close. [3]
- Official close: about $158.10 (Yahoo historical close for Dec. 24). [4]
- After-hours/late trade level: roughly $158.7 around mid‑afternoon ET, indicating a small move versus the close.
- Volume: roughly 4.44 million shares on the day (notably light, consistent with holiday trading). [5]
Because today’s session was shortened—and because after-hours liquidity can be thin on holidays—small prints can look more “meaningful” than they’d appear on a normal full-volume day. That matters for anyone interpreting the after-hours tape too aggressively.
The biggest driver: Strategy is still trading like a leveraged Bitcoin proxy—while Bitcoin stayed soft
Bitcoin remained under pressure into Christmas Eve, hovering around $87K and down on the day, with several market reports pointing to a holiday lull and ETF-related flow narratives as part of the backdrop. [6]
That matters because MSTR’s equity story is still dominated by:
- Bitcoin price direction, and
- How investors feel about Strategy’s balance-sheet structure (equity issuance, preferred dividends, and debt) relative to its BTC holdings.
Even on a day when U.S. stocks broadly pushed to record highs in the Santa-rally window, crypto-linked equities didn’t necessarily participate the same way. [7]
Why the 52-week low matters more than a headline
Multiple outlets highlighted the same key “today” milestone: Strategy hitting a new 52-week low (around $155–$156 depending on the feed). [8]
This is significant for three reasons:
1) It reopens the “forced seller” narrative—fairly or not
When highly levered or dividend-obligated structures meet a falling underlying asset (Bitcoin), markets often jump to worst-case assumptions. Even if the company insists it does not intend to sell BTC, the market can still price the possibility of stress.
2) It changes the math on raising fresh capital
Strategy has used equity and preferred issuance as part of its playbook. A lower share price can make dilution more expensive, and it can change how investors view the sustainability of buying BTC via new issuance.
3) It raises the stakes for “non-BTC” parts of the story
If MSTR is going to be more than “just a Bitcoin proxy,” investors want proof that Strategy’s “platform” pitch can reduce volatility and widen the buyer base—especially in institutional channels.
Today’s most-discussed narrative shift: “Beyond Bitcoin exposure”
A major Christmas Eve read-through came from coverage of Michael Saylor’s evolving messaging. Strategy’s executive chairman has been emphasizing that the company is not merely a BTC tracker, but a “capital markets platform” built around issuing different instruments that provide varying exposures and income features. [9]
This argument is showing up now because the competitive landscape changed:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs and options markets have given investors more direct ways to express Bitcoin exposure without owning MSTR. [10]
- That pressures Strategy to justify its “premium” with something ETFs can’t replicate—whether that’s instrument design, scale, liquidity engineering, or long-term capital access.
In other words, Strategy is selling a structure, not just an asset.
The most important company disclosure heading into Friday: the cash reserve and the Bitcoin-purchase pause
While there was no major new corporate press release dated Dec. 24, the market is still digesting Strategy’s most recent Form 8‑K dated Dec. 22, 2025, which updated investors on share sales, BTC holdings, and the firm’s USD reserve. [11]
Key numbers from that Dec. 22 filing:
- ATM equity sales (Dec. 15–Dec. 21):4,535,000 MSTR shares sold for $747.8 million in net proceeds. [12]
- Bitcoin purchases:none during that week. [13]
- Bitcoin holdings (as of Dec. 21):671,268 BTC with an aggregate purchase price of $50.33B and average purchase price about $74,972. [14]
- USD reserve:$2.19B as of Dec. 21, up from the initial $1.44B reserve concept announced earlier in the month. [15]
Why the reserve is both bullish and bearish—depending on your frame
Bullish frame: A larger USD reserve can reduce the risk of having to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations (dividends/interest) in a drawdown. [16]
Bearish frame: Holding dollars rather than buying BTC can look like a tactical retreat—especially to investors who own MSTR primarily for maximum BTC torque.
A widely shared analysis today captured that tension: the reserve may “soften risk,” but it also changes the upside math if Bitcoin rallies sharply. [17]
Index risk is still the overhang investors keep circling
Another recurring overhang is the possibility that some index providers treat crypto-heavy “digital asset treasury” firms as resembling investment funds, potentially affecting eligibility for certain indexes.
Reuters reporting in recent days has pointed to the risk that index methodology changes could reduce passive demand for Strategy shares—an issue investors continue to factor into the story as year-end approaches. [18]
Even if nothing “happens” on Dec. 24 itself, the market often reprices these risks well ahead of formal decisions—especially when liquidity is thin and sentiment is fragile.
Forecasts and analyst outlook investors are citing tonight
Even after the selloff, bullish targets still exist—but the spread is wide, and investors should treat price targets as scenario math rather than certainty.
Wall Street consensus snapshot (as cited in today’s coverage)
TipRanks reported today that:
- Strategy carries a “Strong Buy” consensus,
- with an average price target around $467.75, implying large upside from current levels. [19]
Citi’s tone: bullish, but the Street is clearly recalibrating
Today’s coverage also referenced Citi commentary portraying Strategy’s preferred-share strategy and outreach as potentially supportive to institutional demand (notably discussed in the context of “broadening the investor base”). [20]
What matters for traders isn’t whether a single target is “right,” but what assumptions sit underneath:
- Bitcoin year-end and 2026 trajectory
- Strategy’s ability to issue capital efficiently without crushing per-share metrics
- Dividend/interest coverage comfort
- Whether index methodology changes become real outflows or just noise
What to know before the next U.S. market open
Again, U.S. markets do not open Thursday (Dec. 25). The next open is Friday, Dec. 26. [21]
Here’s what investors typically watch between now and that reopen:
1) Bitcoin’s holiday tape: direction matters more than headlines
With thinner liquidity around holidays, BTC can move on relatively modest flows—sometimes producing outsized reactions in BTC-linked equities when stocks reopen. [22]
What to monitor:
- Whether BTC can reclaim/hold the high-$80Ks area
- Any signs that “holiday lull” becomes “holiday slide”
2) Strategy’s next disclosure cadence: purchases, issuance, reserve
Strategy has been updating markets frequently via filings and its disclosure channels. The big “next” question remains: does it resume BTC buying, or keep prioritizing the USD reserve and balance-sheet flexibility? [23]
3) Liquidity and spreads on Friday
Holiday weeks can produce wider spreads and sharper intraday swings. If Bitcoin gaps meaningfully overnight/over-holiday, MSTR can gap too—sometimes more than investors expect.
4) Index-policy headlines and positioning
Even if the next index milestone is weeks away, headlines can drive short-term positioning. Watch for:
- methodology updates,
- consultation commentary,
- large-fund flows narratives. [24]
5) The broader market’s risk-on mood vs crypto’s mood
Today, U.S. equities pushed record highs in the Santa-rally window. [25]
If that continues into Friday while crypto stays heavy, MSTR may remain “torn” between:
- equity risk appetite (supportive), and
- Bitcoin downside pressure (negative).
Bottom line for MSTR heading into Friday, Dec. 26
Strategy stock closed Christmas Eve off its lows after printing a new 52-week low—a technical and sentiment blow—but not a breakdown into panic by the closing tape. [26]
The market is now pricing Strategy through three simultaneous lenses:
- Bitcoin’s next move,
- Whether Strategy’s cash-reserve pivot stabilizes the structure, and
- Whether index eligibility risk becomes a real flow event rather than just a headline. [27]
If you’re watching into Friday’s reopen, the “tell” is simple: does Bitcoin stabilize or slip further—and does Strategy’s stock start acting more like a capital-markets platform, or revert to pure leveraged BTC beta?
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. assets.contentstack.io, 12. assets.contentstack.io, 13. assets.contentstack.io, 14. assets.contentstack.io, 15. assets.contentstack.io, 16. assets.contentstack.io, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. assets.contentstack.io, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. assets.contentstack.io
