Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) ended Monday’s session sharply lower and stayed mostly flat in early after-hours trading—an important signal heading into Tuesday, December 16, as markets brace for a packed slate of delayed U.S. economic data that could sway interest rates, the dollar, and Bitcoin, which remains the single biggest driver of Strategy’s stock.
By the 4:00 p.m. ET close, Strategy shares finished at $162.08, down 8.14%, and traded around $162.00 shortly after the bell. [1]
The move came even as the company disclosed another near-$1 billion Bitcoin purchase—its second consecutive week of roughly that size—highlighting the market’s current tension around Strategy’s model: aggressive BTC accumulation funded by ongoing equity and preferred-stock issuance, which can weigh on the share price even when the Bitcoin headline looks bullish. [2]
Below is what happened today, why the stock slid, and the key catalysts to monitor before the market opens Tuesday.
Strategy stock recap: a steep drop in regular trading, little movement after hours
Strategy’s selling pressure was concentrated during the regular session:
- Close (Dec. 15): $162.08 (-8.14%)
- Open: $176.00
- High: $176.23
- Low: $160.55
- Volume: 22.98 million shares [3]
In early post-market trading, shares hovered essentially unchanged near $162.00. [4]
That “down hard by day, flat after hours” profile often indicates the market has already processed the day’s headline catalysts—and is now waiting for the next major input (in Strategy’s case, usually Bitcoin’s overnight move and/or macro data at 8:30 a.m. ET).
The main headline: Strategy just bought another 10,645 BTC—about $980 million worth
Strategy filed an 8‑K on Monday (dated December 15, 2025) disclosing that it acquired 10,645 bitcoin between Dec. 8 and Dec. 14 for an aggregate purchase price of $980.3 million, at an average price of $92,098 per coin (inclusive of fees and expenses). [5]
That brings Strategy’s total holdings to:
- 671,268 BTC
- Aggregate purchase price: $50.33 billion
- Average purchase price: $74,972 [6]
This confirms Strategy’s continued identity shift from its legacy enterprise software roots into what it describes as a “Bitcoin Treasury Company,” while it continues to issue multiple securities (common stock and several preferred tickers) to finance accumulation. [7]
Why did MSTR fall anyway? The market is focused on Bitcoin’s slide—and funding (dilution)
1) Bitcoin dropped below $86,000, pulling down crypto-linked stocks
A key reason Strategy fell is straightforward: Bitcoin weakened sharply on Monday, briefly falling below $86,000 for the first time in about two weeks and extending a broader pullback from October highs. [8]
Investing.com reported Bitcoin sliding around 3% to ~$85,700, with an intraday low near $85,171; it also noted Strategy shares fell about 8% alongside other crypto equities. [9]
Barron’s similarly pegged Bitcoin around $85,774 on Monday and highlighted that crypto-related equities—including Strategy—were under pressure. [10]
Because Strategy holds such a large BTC position—and because its earnings and valuation are extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s mark-to-market swings—MSTR often behaves like a high-beta Bitcoin proxy when crypto volatility spikes. [11]
2) The new BTC buy was financed largely through stock sales—reviving dilution concerns
The other major reason the stock struggled is funding mechanics.
In the same 8‑K, Strategy disclosed weekly sales under its at‑the‑market (ATM) programs, including:
- 4,789,664 shares of MSTR common stock sold during Dec. 8–14, generating $888.2 million in net proceeds
- Preferred stock sales including STRF, STRK, and STRD (and no sales of STRC during the period) [12]
Total net proceeds across the week’s ATM activity were reported at about $989.0 million, roughly matching the scale of the Bitcoin purchase. [13]
This is the push-pull investors are watching right now:
- Bull case: more BTC accumulation boosts long-term BTC exposure per share (depending on pricing and capital structure)
- Bear case: persistent equity issuance can pressure the stock, especially when Bitcoin is falling and investor appetite for risk is thinning
Barron’s summed up the mood bluntly: Strategy keeps buying Bitcoin, but “it isn’t helping the stock” in the current tape. [14]
Today’s “under the radar” catalyst: Strategy stays in the Nasdaq 100, but index scrutiny continues
Another important piece of news circulating on Monday: Strategy remains in the Nasdaq 100, following the index’s annual reshuffle. [15]
Reuters reported that Nasdaq’s changes are expected to take effect December 22, 2025, and Strategy kept its place even as debate grows about whether bitcoin-heavy treasury companies resemble operating tech firms or investment vehicles. [16]
Why it matters for shareholders:
- Staying in the Nasdaq 100 helps support liquidity and visibility
- It can also influence passive fund ownership and “index flow” dynamics—sometimes a material factor for momentum-driven, high-volatility names
However, Reuters also noted that MSCI has raised concerns about digital-asset treasury companies in its benchmarks and is due to decide in January whether to exclude Strategy and similar firms. [17]
Strategy has publicly pushed back on MSCI’s proposed approach, calling the rule framework arbitrary and arguing these firms are operating companies, not funds. [18]
The macro backdrop heading into Tuesday: delayed jobs data and retail sales at 8:30 a.m. ET
Strategy doesn’t trade in a vacuum—especially not when Bitcoin is moving on “rates + risk appetite” narratives.
Two things matter most before Tuesday’s open:
1) A rare, high-stakes U.S. data morning (shutdown-delayed releases)
Reuters reported Monday evening that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release long-awaited employment data on Tuesday after disruptions from the government shutdown, though some key details will be missing. [19]
The BLS release calendar lists:
- Employment Situation for November 2025:Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET [20]
On top of that, the U.S. Census Bureau’s retail calendar shows that Advance Monthly Retail Sales (October 2025 data) and Monthly Retail Trade (September 2025 data) were rescheduled to Dec. 16, 2025 (8:30 a.m.). [21]
That’s a major concentration of market-moving data at the same time—data that can shift Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar quickly, which often feeds directly into Bitcoin and then into MSTR.
2) The Fed narrative is still moving markets
Risk assets have been sensitive to “will the Fed cut again?” expectations. Barron’s noted that markets were pricing a relatively low probability of a January rate cut on Monday as hopes dimmed. [22]
Separately, Reuters reported New York Fed President John Williams saying policy is in a “good position” after the Fed’s Dec. 10 rate cut to a 3.50%–3.75% range. [23]
For Strategy investors, the link is indirect but powerful: easier financial conditions can support Bitcoin, while a “higher-for-longer” repricing can pressure it—often magnified through MSTR.
What to watch before the market opens Tuesday (Dec. 16)
Here are the practical, high-signal items to track overnight and premarket if you’re following Strategy stock:
Watch 1: Bitcoin’s overnight direction (and whether it holds above ~$86K)
Strategy’s after-hours stability won’t matter much if Bitcoin breaks lower (or rallies sharply) while U.S. equity markets are closed. Bitcoin trades 24/7, so the “real catalyst” for MSTR frequently happens overnight in crypto. [24]
Watch 2: 8:30 a.m. ET data shock—jobs + retail sales
Both the BLS Employment Situation and Census retail sales releases are scheduled for Tuesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. [25]
That combination can move index futures, bond yields, and the dollar in minutes—often spilling into Bitcoin and crypto-linked equities before the opening bell.
Watch 3: Any fresh Strategy filings or “ATM pace” signals
Strategy’s market tends to reprice quickly when investors infer the company has accelerated or slowed issuance (common or preferred) to fund BTC buys. Monday’s disclosure showed nearly $989 million in net proceeds in a single week and almost 4.79 million common shares sold—numbers big enough to keep dilution front-of-mind. [26]
Watch 4: Index-flow chatter and benchmark eligibility headlines
The Nasdaq 100 decision is now known (Strategy stays), but the story hasn’t ended—MSCI’s January review remains a looming headline risk that can spark volatility when new commentary hits the tape. [27]
Forecasts and forward-looking signals: what “targets” matter right now
Strategy’s own FY2025 sensitivity range: Bitcoin at $85K–$110K by year-end
On December 1, Strategy updated the assumptions behind its FY2025 guidance, explicitly tying ranges of operating income, net income, and EPS outcomes to a year-end 2025 Bitcoin price range of $85,000 to $110,000 (after previously using $150,000 as an assumption in earlier guidance). [28]
That guidance underscores a key point for tomorrow: as Bitcoin trades around the mid-$80Ks today, it’s sitting at the low end of the company’s disclosed sensitivity band—meaning even modest BTC moves can materially alter expectations for reported results.
Street price targets remain wide (because the underlying driver is volatile)
Aggregator data from MarketBeat shows a very wide spread of analyst targets for Strategy, with a listed consensus price target around $475.80 and a high/low range spanning $705 to $54 (reflecting diverging assumptions about Bitcoin, dilution, and the premium/discount investors assign to Strategy’s BTC exposure). [29]
Takeaway: forecasts exist, but for MSTR they often function less like “traditional operating-company modeling” and more like scenario analysis on Bitcoin + financing conditions.
Bottom line for Tuesday: MSTR is set up for a macro-and-Bitcoin-driven open
After the bell on Dec. 15, Strategy stock was basically flat—but the day’s action was loud: shares fell more than 8% even as the company disclosed another $980 million Bitcoin purchase. [30]
That divergence tells you what the market is prioritizing right now:
- Bitcoin’s direction (especially after it slipped under $86K Monday), and [31]
- The cost of buying more BTC—specifically, how much common-stock issuance it takes, and how much dilution investors will tolerate in a risk-off environment [32]
With major U.S. economic releases scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday—including the delayed jobs report and rescheduled retail sales—Strategy investors should expect volatility not just at the opening bell, but potentially in the premarket as soon as the data hits. [33]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.strategy.com, 8. za.investing.com, 9. za.investing.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.strategy.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.strategy.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.bls.gov, 21. www.census.gov, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. za.investing.com, 25. www.bls.gov, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.strategy.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. za.investing.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.bls.gov
