Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and now widely tracked as a “Bitcoin treasury” proxy — finished Tuesday’s session higher, then traded in a tight range after the closing bell as investors digested a fresh credit update and the continuing debate over Bitcoin exposure, dilution, and index eligibility. [1]
Below is what moved Strategy stock after the bell on December 16, 2025, what today’s news and analysis is saying, and what matters most before U.S. markets open Wednesday, December 17, 2025.
Strategy (MSTR) after-hours snapshot: where the stock is trading after the bell
- Regular-session close (Tuesday): MSTR ended around $167.50, up about 3.3% on the day. [2]
- After-hours (early evening): MSTR was quoted around $168.02 in after-hours trading (about +0.3% vs. the regular close at the time of that quote). [3]
- Intraday range: The stock traded roughly $161.95 to $171.49 during the session, highlighting how quickly sentiment can flip in either direction. [4]
- Bitcoin check (because it matters): Bitcoin was around $87,677, up about 1.9% on the day, which often acts as the primary “macro driver” for MSTR’s short-term swings.
Why this matters for tomorrow: MSTR typically trades like a leveraged Bitcoin sentiment gauge. If Bitcoin moves sharply overnight, Strategy stock often reprices quickly in premarket and at the opening bell — sometimes independent of broader equity market tone. [5]
The biggest “today” headline: S&P keeps Strategy’s credit rating at B- (stable outlook)
Late Tuesday, Investing.com reported that S&P Global Ratings affirmed Strategy’s ‘B-’ issuer credit rating and maintained a stable outlook. [6]
Key takeaways from that update (and why equity investors care even if they don’t own the bonds):
1) Liquidity planning is now part of the Strategy story
S&P viewed Strategy’s USD reserve as credit-positive because it can help cover preferred dividends and coupon payments during periods when capital markets are less accessible. [7]
That reserve is not just theory: Strategy itself previously announced it established a USD Reserve (about $1.44B) funded through its at-the-market equity program, specifically to support dividend/interest obligations. [8]
2) The “premium” to Bitcoin has compressed — and S&P called it out
S&P (via the Investing.com summary) pointed to Strategy’s stock decline from above $400 earlier this year to below $190, and said the company’s mNAV (enterprise value relative to Bitcoin holdings) fell to below ~1.2x from above ~1.4x a couple of months earlier. [9]
Translation for stock traders: the market is paying less “extra” for Strategy’s structure than it did earlier in the cycle — which can make future Bitcoin buying via share issuance harder to justify (and more controversial).
3) The capital-raising engine is still running
Despite the stock’s pullback, S&P said Strategy maintained strong capital market access in 2025, including raising about $700 million through a euro-denominated preferred stock offering called “Stream.” [10]
S&P also noted Strategy raised enough capital to fund roughly $2.0B in Bitcoin purchases so far in December and funded its roughly $1.5B reserve by issuing common stock in November. [11]
4) Debt structure remains a real risk factor (even without near-term maturities)
S&P highlighted liquidity risks tied to Strategy’s convertible debt, noting over $8B notional value, with the nearest maturity just over $1B in September 2028, and a put right starting September 2027. [12]
5) Earnings volatility: S&P flagged the Q4 setup
S&P said Strategy is likely to report a significant loss in Q4 due to declining Bitcoin prices, and referenced Strategy guidance showing 2025 net income ranging from -$5.5B to +$6.3B, assuming year-end Bitcoin of $85,000 to $110,000. [13]
Bottom line: The rating itself doesn’t directly set MSTR’s share price. But the details reinforce what equity investors are already trading: Strategy’s model depends on (1) access to capital markets and (2) the path of Bitcoin. If either weakens, volatility rises.
Today’s debate in one sentence: “Bitcoin accumulation vs. shareholder dilution”
Strategy’s bull and bear cases both run through the same mechanism: using financial engineering (equity and preferred issuance, plus debt instruments) to increase Bitcoin holdings — and betting that the long-term Bitcoin gains outweigh the cost of funding and dilution. [14]
What’s new (and still moving the narrative)
A widely circulated analysis published today via TradingView (from Invezz) argues dilution is becoming more painful as Strategy’s premium compresses, warning the stock could fall toward $155 (the year’s low area) and potentially even $100 in a bearish technical scenario. [15]
That piece also claims Strategy still has ~$12B remaining in its ATM capacity and highlights reported sales across common and preferred programs to fund Bitcoin buying. [16]
Whether or not you agree with the conclusion, this is the exact storyline traders are reacting to: the market is increasingly sensitive to signs that Bitcoin purchases are being financed primarily by new share issuance (dilution) rather than by operational cash generation. [17]
What today’s options and technical analysis is flagging
A Barchart column published Tuesday morning pointed to unusual options activity that leaned bearish, including a reported imbalance of bearish vs. bullish premium and large deep in-the-money put positioning. [18]
The same piece emphasized that MSTR has been trading below key moving averages (a classic “trend is down until proven otherwise” technical setup). [19]
How to use this ahead of Wednesday:
Options flow isn’t destiny, but it can help explain why MSTR often “snaps back” after rallies: if market participants are positioned defensively, upside can meet supply quickly, especially if Bitcoin stalls. [20]
Analyst forecasts: a wide target range, but the direction is still mostly bullish
Despite the drawdown and the debate over valuation mechanics, aggregated analyst data remains strikingly optimistic:
- Investing.com lists an average 12‑month target around $501.92, with a high estimate of $705 and a low estimate of $229, and shows 13 “buy” ratings and 0 “sell” in its dataset. [21]
That gap between the current trading level (~$167–$168 after hours) and triple-digit targets is one reason MSTR remains a magnet for both momentum traders and skeptics: the “upside” is enormous if Bitcoin rallies hard, but the path can be brutal if Bitcoin chops or falls. [22]
What you should know before the market opens tomorrow (Dec. 17, 2025)
Here are the practical, high-signal items to watch before Wednesday’s opening bell — tailored specifically to Strategy (MSTR):
1) Watch Bitcoin overnight, not just U.S. equity futures
Bitcoin trades 24/7, and MSTR often “catches up” to overnight crypto moves in premarket. Even modest BTC swings can matter because traders treat MSTR as a high-beta proxy. [23]
2) Premarket liquidity can exaggerate moves
Investing.com showed a premarket quote around $165.34 at the time it captured its snapshot, underscoring that MSTR can move meaningfully outside regular hours. [24]
Public’s after-hours quote similarly showed MSTR still active after 4:00 p.m. ET. [25]
3) Credit + capital access remains the “non-Bitcoin” catalyst
If markets interpret S&P’s stable outlook as supportive of ongoing capital access, that can help sentiment at the margin. But S&P also laid out clear downgrade triggers tied to impeded capital access or increased maturity-management risk — language traders may revisit anytime Bitcoin weakens. [26]
4) Know the next earnings date — and what it implies
Investing.com lists Strategy’s next earnings report date as February 3, 2026. [27]
That means near-term trading is less about imminent earnings and more about Bitcoin + financing headlines + index inclusion debates.
5) Macro events: Fed communication can still hit “risk-on” trades before the open
For Wednesday, the Federal Reserve calendar shows an 8:15 a.m. event with Governor Christopher J. Waller (Economic Outlook), which can influence rates, the dollar, and risk appetite — all relevant to crypto-linked equities. [28]
Separately, the BLS release schedule lists the Employment Situation for November 2025 on Wednesday, Dec. 17 (scheduled at 10:00 a.m. in that listing), which would hit after the market opens and could add volatility if it surprises. [29]
6) The index question isn’t over, even though Nasdaq 100 fears eased
Earlier concerns centered on whether Strategy would be removed from the Nasdaq 100 during the annual reshuffle — an outcome some analysts warned could have caused large passive outflows. [30]
Subsequent reporting indicated Strategy retained its Nasdaq 100 spot during the reconstitution, with changes set to take effect Dec. 22. [31]
However, index eligibility scrutiny hasn’t vanished. Reporting has highlighted that MSCI is evaluating how to treat crypto-heavy “treasury” firms, and Strategy itself has pushed back on proposed exclusion rules. [32]
The setup going into Wednesday: why MSTR could stay volatile
Putting it together, Strategy stock is entering Wednesday with three forces pulling at once:
- Bitcoin’s direction (the primary short-term driver). [33]
- Capital-structure headlines (credit rating framing, dilution sensitivity, and the “reserve” strategy). [34]
- Positioning and technical pressure (options flow commentary and trend signals still flashing caution). [35]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. public.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. markets.financialcontent.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.strategy.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. markets.financialcontent.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.barchart.com, 19. www.barchart.com, 20. www.barchart.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. markets.financialcontent.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. public.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.federalreserve.gov, 29. www.bls.gov, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.marketwatch.com, 32. www.investors.com, 33. markets.financialcontent.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.barchart.com
