Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock in December 2025: Massive Bitcoin Buy, Slashed Guidance and a High‑Risk 2026 Outlook

As of December 9, 2025, Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR), the former MicroStrategy, sits at the center of two storm systems: a brutally volatile Bitcoin market and rising scrutiny of its highly leveraged, crypto‑heavy business model. The stock trades around $181.67 per share, with intraday moves easily stretching several percentage points in either direction.

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, earnings guidance, analyst forecasts and macro backdrop driving Strategy Inc stock right now.

Strategy Inc Stock Snapshot on 9 December 2025

Latest price: about $181.67 (NASDAQ: MSTR) in afternoon trading on December 9, 2025.
Market cap: roughly $52.8 billion, according to TradingView. ^[1]
Recent performance: TradingView data shows MSTR is up ~7% over the past week, down ~19% over the past month, and down ~54% over the last year. ^[2]
Volatility: TradingView estimates the stock’s volatility at around 4.3% with a beta of 1.5, underscoring that MSTR typically moves more than the overall market. ^[3]

In other words, Strategy Inc stock remains an extremely volatile way to express a view on Bitcoin—amplified by leverage, complex capital structure, and investor sentiment around its controversial strategy.

A Near‑Pure Bitcoin Proxy With Software on the Side

Strategy Inc started life as business‑intelligence software firm MicroStrategy and officially adopted the “Strategy” branding in 2025. ^[4]

Today the company describes itself as “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company,” combining: ^[5]

A massive Bitcoin reserve, funded through equity and debt issuance.
A portfolio of equity and fixed‑income securities tied to that treasury (common stock plus multiple listed preferred share tickers such as STRF, STRC, STRK and STRD). ^[6]
A continuing enterprise analytics and AI‑powered software business.

Strategy’s latest official communications and media reports indicate it now holds roughly 650,000–660,000 bitcoins, or just over 3% of the eventual 21 million‑coin supply, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world. ^[7]

Because those holdings are marked to fair value under updated US accounting rules, Strategy’s income statement and earnings guidance swing dramatically with every large move in Bitcoin. ^[8]

The New $963M Bitcoin Purchase: “Buying the Dip” Again

The biggest single piece of news for Strategy Inc stock in early December is yet another huge Bitcoin purchase.

What Strategy Just Did

In an SEC filing summarized by Benzinga, Strategy disclosed that it bought 10,624 BTC between December 1–7, spending about $962.7 million at an average price of roughly $90,615 per coin. ^[9]

Benzinga estimates that brings the company’s total stash to about 660,624 BTC, worth just under $50 billion at the time of reporting. ^[10]
TipRanks and Barron’s likewise highlight this as Strategy’s largest single accumulation since mid‑year, positioning the move as a deliberate “buy the dip” response to Bitcoin’s recent slide. ^[11]

Market reaction has been mixed but initially positive: Barron’s notes that the stock bounced around 2–3% on the announcement, reflecting relief that Strategy can still raise capital and deploy it at scale, even after a sharp drawdown in both Bitcoin and its own share price. ^[12]

Why the Purchase Matters for MSTR

Commentary from TipRanks and MarketWatch emphasizes that this purchase serves several purposes at once: ^[13]

It reaffirms Strategy’s core thesis that Bitcoin will appreciate over the long term.
It aims to rebuild the “premium” that Strategy stock historically traded at relative to the value of its underlying Bitcoin, a metric sometimes called mNAV. ^[14]
It signals to investors and creditors that executive chairman Michael Saylor remains willing to raise capital and buy more BTC, rather than de‑risking. ^[15]

However, as MarketWatch points out, this strategy increasingly looks less like optional “conviction buying” and more like structural necessity: with roughly $800 million in annualized dividends on its perpetual preferred securities, Strategy “almost has to keep buying” and growing its Bitcoin base to support the financial engineering that underpins the model. ^[16]

Slashed 2025 Earnings Guidance and a $1.44B USD Reserve

On December 1, 2025, Strategy dropped a pair of high‑impact announcements: a sharp downgrade to its 2025 earnings guidance and the creation of a large US‑dollar reserve.

The New Guidance Depends Almost Entirely on Bitcoin

In a press release and a subsequent Reuters report, Strategy reset expectations for fiscal year 2025, explicitly tying its projected earnings range to different possible year‑end Bitcoin prices. ^[17]

Based on an assumed Bitcoin price range of $85,000–$110,000 at December 31, 2025, the company now forecasts: ^[18]

Operating income (loss): between −$7.0 billion and +$9.5 billion
Net income (loss): between −$5.5 billion and +$6.3 billion
Diluted EPS: between a loss of $17.00 and earnings of $19.00 per share

The huge spread reflects the new accounting standard for crypto assets, which forces Strategy to mark its Bitcoin to market each quarter, making its reported profits extremely sensitive to BTC spot prices. ^[19]

Reuters notes that this is a dramatic pullback from Strategy’s previous guidance, which assumed Bitcoin at $150,000 by year‑end and implied a net profit of around $24 billion. ^[20]

Building a USD War Chest

To calm fears about its ability to meet obligations on its growing stack of debt and perpetual preferred shares, Strategy also announced the creation of a $1.44 billion USD Reserve. ^[21]

Key facts:

The reserve is funded via sales of class A common stock through an at‑the‑market program. ^[22]
It is intended to cover at least 12 months of dividend and interest payments, with a goal of eventually covering 24 months or more. ^[23]
Founder Michael Saylor described the move as a “next step” in Strategy’s evolution, pairing a BTC reserve with a USD reserve to absorb short‑term volatility. ^[24]

Analysts quoted by Reuters view the USD reserve as prudent and reassuring, but they also stress that it underscores just how dependent Strategy has become on external capital markets to sustain its model. ^[25]

Index‑Provider Pressure: MSCI Review and S&P’s Cold Shoulder

A quieter but potentially major headwind for Strategy Inc stock is the way index providers are reassessing crypto‑heavy companies.

MSCI May Remove Strategy from Key Benchmarks

In early December, Reuters reported that MSCI is considering excluding companies whose business model is primarily to buy and hold cryptocurrencies from its indices. Strategy is actively “engaging in the process” ahead of a decision due by January 15, 2026. ^[26]

Strategy currently sits in the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices, which funnel passive index and ETF flows into the stock. ^[27]
JPMorgan estimates that an exclusion by MSCI (and any other index providers that follow suit) could trigger up to $8.8 billion in outflows from MSTR. ^[28]

Michael Saylor publicly downplayed the risk, saying an exclusion “won’t make any difference,” but the article notes that Strategy shares are down more than 37% year‑to‑date, outpacing Bitcoin’s much milder decline—suggesting investor enthusiasm for the leveraged Bitcoin‑treasury play is cooling. ^[29]

S&P 500 Rejection and a Shrinking Premium

Separately, the Financial Times has highlighted that S&P declined to add Strategy to the S&P 500 despite its market‑cap and profitability profile, arguing that the company increasingly resembles a Bitcoin fund rather than an operating business—and that its heavy reliance on constant equity issuance is eroding its premium over net asset value. ^[30]

Together, the MSCI review and S&P’s stance inject an additional layer of uncertainty over how long passive index investors will continue to support MSTR, especially as its valuation oscillates between trading at a premium and at a discount to the underlying Bitcoin it owns. ^[31]

Bitcoin’s Brutal 2025: The Macro Backdrop for MSTR

Any discussion of Strategy Inc stock has to start with Bitcoin itself.

A recent Reuters overview of the crypto market notes that Bitcoin: ^[32]

Hit an all‑time high above $126,000 in October 2025 amid a burst of optimism around pro‑crypto policy and AI‑driven tech stocks.
Suffered a record liquidation event in October after new tariffs and export controls sparked a wider risk‑asset sell‑off.
Has since slid to around $89,000–$91,000 in early December, leaving it on track for its first annual loss since 2022.

Crucially, analysts point out that Bitcoin is now more correlated than ever with mainstream equity markets and increasingly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy signals. ^[33]

For Strategy, that means its stock is no longer just a play on “digital gold”; it’s also tethered to broader risk sentiment, AI valuations and interest‑rate expectations—amplifying volatility both on the way up and on the way down.

How the Selloff Hit Strategy Inc Stock

Mainstream coverage from The Economist, Bloomberg and others has framed Strategy as one of the earliest and most exposed corporate casualties of Bitcoin’s recent slide: ^[34]

The Economist notes that Strategy’s share price rose nearly 600% from early 2024 to July 2025, only to give back a large chunk of those gains as Bitcoin plunged. ^[35]
A Bloomberg opinion column argues that Strategy’s “Bitcoin hype machine” is “glitching” as BTC trades near the company’s average purchase price, eroding the narrative of guaranteed “number‑go‑up” returns and inviting copycat corporate treasuries to compete away Strategy’s premium. ^[36]
S&P Global data cited by The Motley Fool show MSTR fell about 34% in November alone, underscoring how quickly sentiment can reverse for highly leveraged crypto equities. ^[37]

At various points in late 2025, Forbes and other outlets have observed that Strategy’s market capitalization has dipped below the value of the Bitcoin it holds, implying that the stock sometimes trades at a discount to its own BTC reserve—an inversion of the rich premium it enjoyed during the bull phase. ^[38]

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets for Strategy Inc Stock

Despite the turmoil, Wall Street analyst sentiment remains surprisingly bullish on Strategy Inc.

Consensus: Strong Buy, Huge Upside (on Paper)

TipRanks reports that, over the last three months: ^[39]

Strategy Inc (MSTR) holds a “Strong Buy” consensus rating.
Out of 14 tracked analysts, 12 rate the stock a Buy, 2 a Hold, and none a Sell.
The average 12‑month price target sits around $493.58 per share, implying roughly 175% upside from recent prices near $180.

TradingView aggregates analyst forecasts showing a wide target range, with a maximum estimate near $705 and a minimum around $229, again underscoring just how uncertain the path forward is. ^[40]

Recent Target Cuts and Revisions

Even the bulls are trimming their sails:

Barron’s highlights that Cantor Fitzgerald cut its Strategy target by around 60%, bringing it down from the mid‑$500s to the low‑$200s, but kept an Overweight rating. ^[41]
The same piece notes that TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy with a $500 target, betting that Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin purchases will pay off if BTC recovers. ^[42]
Benzinga reports that Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani maintains an Outperform rating but lowered his target from $600 to $450, citing heightened volatility and macro risk. ^[43]

On the technical side, TradingView’s real‑time indicators currently flash “Sell” on the daily timeframe, “Sell” over one week, and a neutral signal on the one‑month horizon—a reminder that the chart alone still looks fragile even as fundamental bulls talk up long‑term upside. ^[44]

Bull vs Bear Case: What’s Priced into Strategy Inc Stock?

The Bull Case

Supportive analysts and Bitcoin believers argue that Strategy Inc offers: ^[45]

Unique leverage to Bitcoin upside
- With more than 650k BTC on the balance sheet and a capacity to raise fresh capital, Strategy acts like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF, but with operating software revenue and multiple securities structures layered on top.
Proven ability to tap capital markets
- Even after a brutal drawdown, the company was able to raise nearly $1 billion for new BTC purchases and $1.44 billion for its USD Reserve, suggesting strong demand from yield‑seeking and crypto‑aligned investors. ^[46]
Growing recognition and index presence
- Inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 in late 2024 boosted its visibility, and the stock remains in multiple major indices—for now. ^[47]
Optionality from software & analytics
- Although overshadowed by the Bitcoin treasury, Strategy still runs a recognized analytics and AI software business which could provide incremental value and diversification if it grows. ^[48]

The Bear Case

Skeptics, including commentators in the FT, The Economist and Bloomberg, focus on several structural risks: ^[49]

Extreme single‑asset concentration
- Strategy’s fortunes are overwhelmingly tied to Bitcoin, which itself is behaving more like a high‑beta tech stock than a safe‑haven asset. A deep or prolonged “crypto winter” could devastate both earnings and investor confidence. ^[50]
Leverage and fixed obligations
- The company has issued billions in convertible debt and perpetual preferred stock with sizable dividend and interest commitments. Servicing these obligations depends on continued access to capital markets and a supportive BTC price environment. ^[51]
Dilution risk for common shareholders
- Strategy routinely sells new shares via its at‑the‑market program to fund BTC purchases and its USD Reserve, diluting existing shareholders and potentially capping upside if the stock trades at or below net asset value. ^[52]
Index‑provider and regulatory uncertainty
- A negative decision from MSCI, or a broader move by index providers and regulators to treat Strategy as an investment fund rather than an operating company, could cut off passive inflows and add volatility. ^[53]
Competition from spot ETFs and copycat treasuries
- With more Bitcoin ETFs and “Bitcoin treasury companies” emerging, Strategy’s once‑unique premium may be competed away as investors gain easier, cleaner ways to access BTC exposure. ^[54]

What Could Move Strategy Inc Stock Next?

Looking ahead from December 9, 2025, several catalysts are likely to drive MSTR:

Bitcoin price direction – More than anything else, the stock will react to whether BTC stabilizes in the $80k–$90k range, breaks sharply lower, or claws back toward its $126k high. ^[55]
MSCI decision (by January 15, 2026) – An index exclusion could trigger forced selling by passive funds; a decision to keep Strategy in the benchmarks would remove a big overhang, at least temporarily. ^[56]
Further capital raises or new preferred issues – Investors will watch how much dilution and leverage Strategy is willing to take on to maintain both its BTC reserve and USD reserve. ^[57]
Additional Bitcoin purchases or potential sales – Saylor has repeatedly signaled an intent to keep accumulating, but recent commentary about the theoretical possibility of sales has unsettled the market. Any actual BTC sale would be a major narrative shift. ^[58]
Regulatory developments around crypto and corporate BTC holdings – Changes in US or international regulation, taxation, or accounting standards for digital assets could materially alter both Strategy’s earnings profile and investor appetite. ^[59]

Bottom Line: Strategy Inc Stock Is Still a High‑Beta Bitcoin Bet

As of December 9, 2025, Strategy Inc stock occupies a rare—and risky—niche:

It offers leveraged, equity‑market exposure to one of the most volatile assets in the world.
It has proven remarkably effective at raising capital to accumulate more Bitcoin and build a USD buffer, even amid a drawdown.
It faces mounting scrutiny from index providers, regulators and skeptical analysts who worry about leverage, dilution and the sustainability of a model built on perpetual Bitcoin accumulation.

For investors, the implications are straightforward but stark:

If you expect Bitcoin to recover and set new highs, and you believe Strategy can maintain market access, MSTR could potentially magnify that upside—as many bullish price targets suggest. ^[60]
If you expect prolonged Bitcoin weakness, tighter financial conditions or heavy‑handed regulation, Strategy Inc stock could face further sharp declines, especially if index exclusions or market‑access issues arise. ^[61]

Either way, Strategy Inc remains firmly in high‑risk, high‑volatility territory. Anyone considering exposure should carefully evaluate their own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification needs, and treat MSTR as a speculative position rather than a core portfolio holding. This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.