Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) is back in the spotlight on December 18, 2025, as investors weigh a familiar mix of catalysts: another billion-dollar-scale Bitcoin purchase, growing debate over share dilution, and an unusually high-stakes index question that could reshape passive fund demand in 2026.
The result is a stock that trades less like a traditional enterprise software name and more like a leveraged Bitcoin proxy—with a capital-markets engine attached.
As of Dec. 18 (16:03:45 UTC), Strategy shares were trading around $165, after swinging between roughly $162 and $169 intraday—another reminder that volatility remains part of the package for MSTR holders.
What’s moving Strategy (MSTR) stock on December 18, 2025
Today’s conversation around Strategy stock centers on a single question: Can the company keep accumulating Bitcoin fast enough to defend its “Bitcoin-per-share” narrative—without eroding shareholder value through dilution or rising financing costs?
That tension has been front and center in multiple analyses published today. One market commentary highlighted that Strategy’s latest purchases reinforce its identity as a “Bitcoin treasury vehicle,” while leaving its software story as a secondary catalyst for now. [1] Another analysis published on Dec. 18 frames the current setup more bluntly: Strategy’s premium to its Bitcoin holdings has compressed sharply from prior peaks, and the stock’s risk profile is increasingly tied to capital-raising mechanics as much as to Bitcoin itself. [2]
The latest SEC filing: Strategy bought 10,645 BTC for $980.3 million
The most concrete new datapoint driving sentiment is Strategy’s Bitcoin and ATM (at-the-market) update filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
In a Form 8‑K dated December 15, 2025, Strategy disclosed that during Dec. 8–Dec. 14, it acquired 10,645 bitcoin for an aggregate purchase price of $980.3 million, at an average purchase price of $92,098 per BTC (inclusive of fees and expenses). [3]
The same filing states that as of December 14, 2025, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings were 671,268 BTC, acquired for an aggregate purchase price of $50.33 billion, implying an average purchase price of $74,972 per BTC. [4]
How Strategy financed the purchase
Strategy said the Bitcoin buying was funded using proceeds from sales of its securities under its at-the-market offering program, including common stock (MSTR) and multiple preferred stock series. [5]
In that same Dec. 15 filing, Strategy reported selling 4,789,664 shares of its Class A common stock during the Dec. 8–Dec. 14 period, generating $888.2 million in net proceeds, alongside smaller sales of preferred securities. [6]
This is the crux of today’s bull/bear debate: Bitcoin accumulation funded by new issuance can raise Bitcoin per share in certain conditions—yet still pressure the stock if investors believe dilution is outpacing value creation.
Why “dilution risk” is becoming the headline risk for MSTR investors
A notable theme across recent market coverage is that Strategy’s strategy now depends heavily on capital markets staying open—and on the stock maintaining enough of a premium (or at least avoiding a steep discount) relative to its Bitcoin holdings.
Reuters described the broader backdrop this way: after Bitcoin pulled back sharply from its October highs, “premiums” for Bitcoin treasury stocks have collapsed, and investors have become more cautious about overpaying for crypto exposure embedded inside a corporate wrapper. [7]
That matters because Strategy’s approach—raising funds via equity and other instruments to buy Bitcoin—tends to work best when the market is willing to fund it on attractive terms.
Strategy’s financial results: strong quarters, but earnings swing with Bitcoin
Strategy continues to report financial statements that look unusual compared with typical software peers, largely because the company’s Bitcoin holdings dominate outcomes under fair-value accounting.
In its Q3 2025 financial results (press release dated October 30, 2025), Strategy reported:
- Net income: $2.8 billion
- Diluted EPS: $8.42
- Operating income: $3.9 billion
- Total revenue: $128.7 million, up 10.9% year-over-year [8]
The company explicitly noted that a large share of operating income reflected unrealized gains on digital assets, after moving to fair value accounting for its bitcoin holdings. [9]
The key point for investors
Strategy can post eye-catching profits when Bitcoin rises—but the reverse is also true. This earnings sensitivity is not a footnote; it’s essentially the business model.
Strategy cut (and widened) its 2025 guidance after Bitcoin’s pullback
One of the most important “forecast” updates shaping MSTR expectations today actually came earlier this month.
On December 1, 2025, Strategy announced it established a $1.44 billion USD reserve intended to support preferred dividends and debt interest, and it updated the assumptions underpinning its FY2025 guidance after Bitcoin fell materially from late-October levels. [10]
Strategy said its prior guidance assumed $150,000 Bitcoin at year-end 2025, and it revised the year-end assumption to a range of $85,000–$110,000. Based on that range, the company published wide outcome bands for FY2025, including:
- Operating income (loss): approximately $(7.0)B to $9.5B
- Net income (loss): approximately $(5.5)B to $6.3B
- Diluted EPS (loss): approximately $(17.0) to $19.0 [11]
The company also updated Bitcoin KPI targets, citing (among other items) an FY2025 BTC Yield Target range of 22%–26% under the same Bitcoin price assumptions. [12]
This is a major reason Strategy remains a polarizing stock: management is effectively telling investors, “If Bitcoin ends 2025 in this range, here’s what our P&L could look like,” and the range is extraordinarily wide by large-cap standards.
Index drama: Nasdaq 100 stays—for now—while MSCI’s decision looms
Nasdaq 100: Strategy remains in the benchmark; changes take effect Dec. 22
A near-term tailwind (or at least avoided headwind) is that Strategy remained in the Nasdaq 100 following the index’s annual changes.
Reuters reported that Nasdaq’s changes are expected to take effect on December 22, 2025, and Strategy held its spot despite debate over whether its model resembles an investment fund more than a tech operating company. [13]
For MSTR shareholders, Nasdaq 100 inclusion matters because it can translate into passive fund demand and broader institutional visibility.
MSCI: the bigger risk event is January 15, 2026
The more consequential index story is MSCI’s ongoing consultation on how to treat so-called digital asset treasury companies.
In an MSCI standard announcement (dated October 10, 2025), MSCI said it is consulting on whether to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of total assets, with the consultation open until December 31, 2025 and final conclusions to be announced by January 15, 2026. MSCI also said any resulting changes would be implemented as part of the February 2026 Index Review. [14]
Strategy has publicly pushed back. On its website, Strategy argues that digital asset treasuries are operating companies, not investment funds, and calls MSCI’s proposed 50% threshold “arbitrary” and “unworkable,” among other objections. [15]
Reuters separately reported that Strategy’s chairman Michael Saylor said the company is engaging with MSCI on the decision, while also noting that some analysts estimate exclusion could trigger large outflows if other index providers follow. [16]
Why this matters for the stock:
If Strategy were removed from major benchmarks, the impact wouldn’t just be symbolic—it could affect the stock’s passive ownership base, potentially changing how easily Strategy can raise capital at scale.
Wall Street forecasts for Strategy (MSTR): huge upside on paper, massive dispersion in targets
Strategy has one of the widest “reasonable” forecast bands you’ll see among U.S. mega-volatile equities—because analysts are effectively underwriting a view on Bitcoin plus capital-market execution plus index status.
According to StockAnalysis (which aggregates analyst targets), Strategy is covered by 14 analysts with a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” and an average price target of about $497—with targets ranging from $54 on the low end to $705 on the high end. [17]
MarketBeat shows a similar picture: an average price target around $476, with the high end also around $705, and the same unusually low bear-case target cited at $54. [18]
What’s behind the most bearish targets?
Bearish targets generally reflect some combination of:
- A deeper Bitcoin drawdown and/or prolonged stagnation
- A shrinking or negative premium to Bitcoin holdings (the “wrapper” risk)
- Higher cost of capital from preferred issuance or reduced equity demand
- Index-related forced selling
What’s behind the most bullish targets?
Bullish targets typically assume:
- A meaningful Bitcoin rebound
- Strategy sustaining (or re-expanding) a premium to holdings
- Continued access to capital markets at tolerable dilution/cost
- No major index exclusion shock in early 2026
One example of how the Street is adjusting: Barron’s reported that Cantor Fitzgerald sharply reduced its price target (from $560 to $229) while maintaining an Overweight stance, citing Bitcoin’s decline and shifting premiums for digital-asset treasury companies. [19]
The preferred stock factor: high yield financing is now part of the Strategy playbook
Strategy’s capital structure has grown more complex—especially with preferred offerings that come with meaningful dividend costs.
For example, Strategy announced pricing for a 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stream Preferred Stock (STRE) in November 2025, with stated dividends accumulating at 10% per annum on a stated amount of €100 per share, and proceeds intended for general corporate purposes including Bitcoin acquisition. [20]
Then, in early December, Strategy said its newly created $1.44 billion USD reserve is meant to help support dividend payments and interest—an explicit attempt to reassure markets that preferred dividends won’t force distressed selling in a drawdown. [21]
Put simply: preferred issuance can reduce immediate common dilution, but it can also raise the company’s fixed obligations. Investors are watching whether that trade-off improves resilience—or simply shifts risk into a different bucket.
The Bitcoin backdrop: why MSTR can fall harder than BTC
Bitcoin’s broader trend still dominates the MSTR narrative. Reuters reported that Bitcoin fell as much as 36% from a record $126,223 set on October 6, 2025, and that Bitcoin-treasury equities have often fallen more as premiums compress. [22]
That dynamic—Bitcoin down, premium down, equity down more—helps explain why Strategy can suffer outsized moves even when Bitcoin itself is “only” correcting.
What investors are watching next: dates and catalysts for Strategy stock
Here are the near-term markers that matter most for anyone tracking Strategy (MSTR) after today’s headlines:
- December 22, 2025: Nasdaq 100 reconstitution changes take effect; Strategy remains included. [23]
- December 31, 2025: MSCI consultation window remains open through this date. [24]
- January 15, 2026: MSCI expects to announce final conclusions on the “digital asset treasury” treatment. [25]
- February 2026 Index Review: MSCI said any resulting changes would be implemented in this review. [26]
- Bitcoin price into year-end: Strategy’s updated FY2025 guidance is explicitly tied to a $85k–$110k year-end Bitcoin range; moving outside it could materially shift results. [27]
- Next financial update cycle: Watch for further ATM/buying disclosures (like the Dec. 15 8‑K) that show whether Strategy keeps buying at scale and how it funds those buys. [28]
Bottom line: Strategy stock remains a high-volatility Bitcoin thesis—with added index and financing layers
On December 18, 2025, Strategy stock is being priced not just on Bitcoin direction, but on three intertwined variables:
- How fast Strategy can accumulate Bitcoin per share,
- Whether the market accepts the dilution/financing costs required to do it, and
- Whether key index providers keep treating Strategy like an operating company rather than a fund-like crypto wrapper. [29]
Analysts’ published targets still skew bullish on average—but the range between the bear and bull cases is enormous, reflecting just how sensitive MSTR is to Bitcoin, premiums, and capital market access. [30]
References
1. simplywall.st, 2. www.cabotwealth.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.strategy.com, 9. www.strategy.com, 10. www.strategy.com, 11. www.strategy.com, 12. www.strategy.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. app2.msci.com, 15. www.strategy.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.strategy.com, 21. www.strategy.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. app2.msci.com, 25. app2.msci.com, 26. app2.msci.com, 27. www.strategy.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. stockanalysis.com
