Meta description: Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) is in the spotlight as index-inclusion questions collide with Bitcoin volatility. Here’s the latest news, analyst forecasts, and what to watch next.
Dec. 12, 2025 — Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR), the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, is trading at $183.30 as of mid-day Friday, with Bitcoin near $92,298—two numbers that increasingly move in tandem as investors treat MSTR as a high-beta proxy for BTC.
But today’s real catalyst isn’t just crypto price action. It’s index risk: whether Strategy remains eligible for major equity benchmarks (notably the Nasdaq 100) and whether index provider MSCI changes rules in a way that could force passive funds to sell. [1]
Why Strategy (MSTR) stock is trending on Dec. 12, 2025
1) Nasdaq 100 reshuffle decision risk: removal could trigger forced selling
Reuters reports that analysts are flagging a meaningful risk that Strategy could be removed from the Nasdaq 100 during the index’s annual reshuffle—an event closely watched because it can drive large passive fund flows. [2]
Key details in today’s Nasdaq 100 storyline:
- Strategy entered the Nasdaq 100 last December under the technology category after a sharp run-up that pushed its market cap to a reported peak of $128 billion earlier this year. [3]
- The debate now is whether Strategy still fits the Nasdaq 100’s profile of large non-financial companies, given how central Bitcoin has become to its balance sheet and market narrative. [4]
- One estimate cited by Reuters suggests removal could drive roughly $1.6 billion in passive outflows (index funds selling because they must). [5]
- Timing matters: Nasdaq’s announcement is expected after Friday’s market close (Dec. 12), with any changes effective Dec. 22. [6]
Strategy itself did not comment to Reuters, and Nasdaq declined to comment ahead of the announcement. [7]
2) MSCI’s “digital asset treasury” rule proposal—and Strategy’s pushback
A second—and potentially bigger—index narrative is playing out at MSCI. MSCI is weighing whether to exclude companies that hold large amounts of Bitcoin or other cryptoassets from certain indexes, treating them more like funds than operating companies. [8]
Strategy is actively lobbying against that approach. On its MSCI response page, the company argues that:
- “Digital asset treasuries” are operating companies, not investment funds
- A digital-asset-specific 50% threshold is “arbitrary, discriminatory, and unworkable”
- The proposal conflicts with U.S. policy and would “stifle innovation” [9]
Business Insider similarly describes MSCI as considering exclusion of firms with 50% or more of their assets in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, with a decision potentially coming in January. [10]
The bigger picture: Strategy’s business model is under the microscope
Strategy’s index debate is inseparable from what it has become: an enterprise software company whose market identity is now dominated by its role as a Bitcoin treasury vehicle.
Reuters highlights the contrast in the latest reported numbers:
- Strategy posted a $2.78 billion net profit for the quarter ended Sept. 30, versus a loss a year earlier, “mostly driven by” an accounting change that allowed it to book gains on Bitcoin holdings. [11]
- Meanwhile, revenue from the legacy software business was $128.7 million. [12]
Reuters also notes Strategy shares have been extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s moves, with MSTR down 65% from its 2024 peak and down 36% year-to-date, versus a 3.6% decline in Bitcoin year-to-date (per Reuters). [13]
That’s why index committees—and investors—are now asking a blunt question: Is Strategy still a tech operating company, or has it become something closer to a crypto holdings vehicle? [14]
What Strategy has done recently to reassure markets
The $1.44B “USD Reserve” designed to cover dividends/interest
On Dec. 1, Strategy announced it established a $1.44 billion USD Reserve intended to support dividends on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt—funded via proceeds from selling Class A common shares under an at-the-market (ATM) program. [15]
In that same release, Strategy said it held 650,000 bitcoin (about 3.1% of the eventual 21 million supply) and described the USD Reserve as covering 21 months of dividends, with an intention to maintain at least 12 months and aim for 24 months over time. [16]
Guidance is explicitly tied to Bitcoin prices
Also notable: Strategy stated it adopted a crypto accounting standard that requires measuring Bitcoin holdings at fair value, with gains and losses flowing through net income—making earnings “extremely sensitive” to Bitcoin’s price. [17]
It updated assumptions for year-end 2025 Bitcoin prices to a range of $85,000 to $110,000 and provided corresponding ranges for FY2025 operating income, net income, and diluted EPS—underscoring that for Strategy, “forecasting” is often another way of saying “Bitcoin scenario analysis.” [18]
Today’s headlines: what major outlets are saying about MSTR on Dec. 12
Here’s the core of today’s coverage, distilled into what matters for the stock:
- Reuters: index specialists and strategists are openly debating whether Nasdaq should “correct last year’s mistake,” and estimates suggest up to $1.6B in passive outflows if Strategy is removed. [19]
- Investor’s Business Daily (IBD): frames today as a “defining test” around benchmark eligibility and the mechanics of passive flows; it also reports Strategy’s view that an MSCI exclusion approach would be harmful. [20]
- Benzinga (TV/market commentary angle): Jim Cramer said he prefers owning Bitcoin directly, not a “derivative of Bitcoin” like Strategy, highlighting how even pro-crypto voices may split between BTC and MSTR. [21]
Wall Street forecasts for Strategy stock: big upside targets, but a wide spread
Despite MSTR’s drawdown from prior highs, major analyst aggregators still show bullish consensus—though targets vary dramatically.
- MarketBeat lists an average 12‑month price target around $475.80 (with targets ranging from $54 to $705). [22]
- StockAnalysis shows a similar picture: consensus “Strong Buy” and an average target near $497.29, again with the same broad $54–$705 range. [23]
- TipRanks lists an average target around $481.08, with a high of $705 and a low of $229. [24]
Why targets can be “all over the map” for MSTR
For traditional operating companies, price targets usually hinge on revenue growth, margins, and cash flow. For Strategy, targets often hinge on at least four variables:
- Bitcoin direction and volatility (spot BTC up/down is the biggest driver) [25]
- Premium/discount to underlying Bitcoin holdings (how much “extra” the market pays for Strategy’s structure and leverage) [26]
- Financing conditions (ability to issue equity/preferreds/debt on favorable terms) [27]
- Index eligibility (passive flows can overwhelm fundamentals in the short run) [28]
Volatility check: how MSTR has been trading into today
Strategy’s recent tape shows the kind of swings that attract traders—and scare long-term investors.
In just the past several sessions, StockAnalysis data shows:
- Dec. 9: high $198.40, close $188.99
- Dec. 11: low $171.41, close $183.30 [29]
That intraday range (especially the $171–$183 move) is a reminder that MSTR can behave less like a software stock and more like a leveraged crypto instrument during risk-on/risk-off rotations. [30]
Bull case vs. bear case: what investors are weighing right now
The bull case for Strategy (MSTR)
- If Bitcoin strengthens, MSTR often amplifies the move (up and down), and bulls argue the company’s capital-markets toolkit creates a “compounding” BTC exposure over time. [31]
- Strategy is explicitly positioning itself not just as a holder of BTC, but as an issuer of multiple instruments that give investors different forms of Bitcoin-linked exposure. [32]
- Analysts’ aggregate targets still imply substantial upside from current levels. [33]
The bear case for Strategy (MSTR)
- Index risk is real: if Nasdaq removes Strategy, the mechanical selling pressure could be large regardless of fundamentals. [34]
- MSCI rule changes could cause additional forced selling across benchmark products, with industry debate focusing on whether crypto-treasury companies should be treated like funds. [35]
- Equity dilution / capital structure complexity: Strategy’s USD Reserve was funded through ATM common stock sales, and critics argue repeated issuance can cap upside for common shareholders over time. [36]
- Some market commentators argue investors who “just want Bitcoin” may increasingly choose spot BTC or spot BTC ETFs instead of corporate wrappers. [37]
Key dates and catalysts to watch next for Strategy stock
If you’re tracking Strategy into year-end, these are the near-term “decision points” that matter most:
- Nasdaq 100 reconstitution decision: expected after market close on Dec. 12, effective Dec. 22. [38]
- MSCI consultation/decision window: multiple reports point to January timing for MSCI’s decision on index treatment of crypto-heavy companies. [39]
- Bitcoin price trend into year-end: Strategy’s own guidance framework and reported earnings sensitivity remain tightly linked to BTC levels. [40]
Quick FAQ for Google Discover readers
Is Strategy Inc the same company as MicroStrategy?
Yes. The company rebranded and changed its legal name from MicroStrategy Incorporated to Strategy Inc, while the Class A common stock continues trading as MSTR on Nasdaq. [41]
Why does MSTR move with Bitcoin?
Strategy holds a very large Bitcoin position and reports that its earnings results are highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s price under fair-value accounting—so the market often trades MSTR as a Bitcoin-linked equity. [42]
What’s the biggest risk for MSTR right now?
Beyond Bitcoin volatility, the most immediate stock-specific risk is benchmark eligibility: possible Nasdaq 100 removal and potential MSCI rule changes that could trigger forced passive selling. [43]
What are analysts forecasting for MSTR?
Consensus targets from major aggregators cluster roughly in the high-$400s, but the spread is unusually wide—reflecting uncertainty around Bitcoin, financing, and index flows. [44]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.businessinsider.com, 9. www.strategy.com, 10. www.businessinsider.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.strategy.com, 16. www.strategy.com, 17. www.strategy.com, 18. www.strategy.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.investors.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.benzinga.com, 27. www.strategy.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.strategy.com, 32. www.strategy.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.businessinsider.com, 36. www.strategy.com, 37. www.benzinga.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.businessinsider.com, 40. www.strategy.com, 41. www.strategy.com, 42. www.strategy.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com
