Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock on December 10, 2025: Bitcoin Pain, New $1.44 Billion War Chest and What Comes Next

Updated: December 10, 2025

Key takeaways

Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) closed at $188.99 on December 9 and is trading around that level on December 10, almost 59% below its 52‑week high of $457.22 but about 21% above its recent low of $155.61. ^[1]
The company has transformed into the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with management recently disclosing around 650,000 BTC in early December and later commentary pointing to ~660,000 BTC after fresh purchases. ^[2]
On December 1, Strategy announced a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to fund dividends and interest, funded via stock issuance, and sharply cut its assumed year‑end 2025 Bitcoin price from $150,000 to a range of $85,000–$110,000. ^[3]
Q3 2025 earnings smashed expectations, with EPS of $8.42 vs. a –$0.10 consensus and revenue of $128.7M vs. $116.7M expected, helping push the stock up 2.9% on heavy volume. ^[4]
Wall Street still leans bullish: most brokers rate Strategy stock a “Buy” or “Strong Buy”, with average price targets in roughly the $475–$515 range, implying more than 150% upside from current levels—if the Bitcoin thesis plays out. ^[5]
At the same time, fresh analysis published today, December 10, 2025 paints a much more divided picture, with some commentators telling investors not to buy the dip and others arguing that the latest USD buffer and BTC buys strengthen the case. ^[6]

Where Strategy Inc stock stands today

Strategy Inc—until recently known as MicroStrategy Incorporated—is now best understood less as a traditional analytics software company and more as a Bitcoin treasury vehicle with a software business attached. ^[7]

As of December 10, 2025:

Last close: $188.99 (Dec 9, Nasdaq) ^[8]
52‑week range: $155.61 – $457.22 ^[9]
Distance from extremes:
- ~58.7% below the 52‑week high
- ~21.5% above the 52‑week low ^[10]
1‑year performance: down roughly 48–51% despite still being up more than 800% over three years, highlighting extreme volatility. ^[11]
Beta: around 3.4, meaning Strategy stock historically moves more than three times as much as the broader market. ^[12]

In other words, MSTR remains a high‑octane bet on Bitcoin, not a typical software stock.

December shock: Bitcoin plunge and Strategy as the “early victim”

A widely discussed column in The Economist last week described Strategy as an “early victim” of Bitcoin’s plunge, noting that the company controls roughly 3% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. ^[13]

Here’s the backdrop behind that narrative:

Strategy’s own December 1 guidance update shows Bitcoin falling from about $111,612 on October 30 to as low as $80,660 on November 21, forcing management to cut its year‑end 2025 BTC price assumption from $150,000 to a far more conservative $85,000–$110,000 range. ^[14]
Bitcoin has since rebounded into the low‑$90,000s (recent quotes hover around $92,000), but that is still well below the earlier assumptions used to craft Strategy’s original ultra‑bullish 2025 forecast. ^[15]

Because Strategy now measures its Bitcoin at fair value, every sharp BTC swing flows straight into the income statement, creating highly volatile earnings. ^[16]

That’s why the updated 2025 guidance range is so wide:

Operating income (loss): –$7.0B to +$9.5B
Net income (loss): –$5.5B to +$6.3B
Diluted EPS: –$17.00 to +$19.00 per share ^[17]

Essentially, Bitcoin’s year‑end price will decide whether 2025 looks like a huge win or a huge loss on paper.

The new $1.44 billion USD reserve: a safety net or another risk?

To calm nerves about dividends and debt service, Strategy announced on December 1 that it had created a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve, funded via sales of new Class A shares under its at‑the‑market (ATM) equity program. ^[18]

Key points from that announcement and follow‑up coverage:

The USD reserve is intended to cover at least 12 months of preferred dividends and interest, with a goal of eventually covering 24 months or more. ^[19]
Management says this reserve currently covers about 21 months of those obligations. ^[20]
As of the press release, Strategy reported 650,000 BTC, or roughly 3.1% of the eventual 21 million BTC supply. ^[21]

Subsequent analysis from Simply Wall St and Barchart notes that in early December the company bought another 10,624 BTC for roughly $962.7 million, pushing the total stash to about 660,000 BTC and reinforcing its Bitcoin‑first balance sheet strategy. ^[22]

This USD reserve cuts two ways:

Positive:
- It reduces the likelihood Strategy will be forced to sell Bitcoin during a downturn just to pay dividends or interest, which had become a real concern after the stock slumped more than 50% in six months. ^[23]
- It reassures bond and preferred holders that there is a dedicated cash buffer backing their payouts.
Negative:
- The reserve is funded largely via equity and preferred stock issuance, which dilutes existing common shareholders and increases fixed obligations—something multiple commentators call out as a serious long‑term risk. ^[24]

What today’s Q4‑season coverage is saying about Strategy stock

A wave of fresh analysis dated December 9–10, 2025 focuses squarely on Strategy Inc’s stock. Here’s how the main voices break down.

1. MarketBeat: big Q3 beat, Moderate Buy rating and heavy trading

In an article titled “Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) Trading 2.9% Higher – Still a Buy?” published December 9, MarketBeat notes that: ^[25]

MSTR jumped 2.9% to $188.99 on heavy volume (about 59% above its average daily trading).
Q3 2025 results were much stronger than expected:
- EPS: $8.42 vs –$0.10 consensus
- Revenue: $128.69M vs $116.65M estimate
- Revenue grew 10.9% year‑on‑year, and the company posted a strikingly high net margin, largely due to fair‑value Bitcoin gains.
FY 2025 EPS guidance was set at 80.00 (a non‑GAAP framework that effectively assumes sustained Bitcoin strength).
Wall Street consensus is described as “Moderate Buy”, with:
- One analyst at Strong Buy,
- Thirteen at Buy,
- Four at Hold,
- Average price target around $475.80.

MarketBeat highlights that, on classic metrics, Strategy now has a market cap over $54B, P/E around 8.8 and beta of 3.4, though those numbers are dominated by the Bitcoin mark‑to‑market effect rather than software profits. ^[26]

2. Simply Wall St: Bitcoin buying + USD buffer reshape the investment case

A new Simply Wall St report published December 10 asks directly, “Is Strategy’s Bitcoin Buying And New USD Buffer Altering The Investment Case For MSTR?” ^[27]

Their lens:

Strategy bought 10,624 BTC for about US$962.7M in early December and simultaneously created the US$1.44B USD reserve, doubling down on Bitcoin while trying to reassure income investors. ^[28]
The article argues that to own Strategy stock now, investors must believe two things at once:
1. Bitcoin remains the core value driver, and
2. Management can engineer enough cash flow and financing flexibility to survive prolonged crypto downturns without catastrophic dilution or forced BTC sales. ^[29]
Simply Wall St points out that their community fair‑value estimates cluster between about US$480 and US$663 per share, suggesting large potential upside vs. the ~$190 share price if things go right. ^[30]

But they also stress that the very wide earnings guidance range and dependence on continued capital raising keep the risk profile extremely high.

3. Seeking Alpha: “Don’t buy the dip”

A freshly published Seeking Alpha note titled “Strategy: Don’t Buy The Dip” (Dec 10) takes a distinctly more cautious stance: ^[31]

The author characterizes MSTR as “still a leveraged Bitcoin bet” that currently trades about 18% above its BTC‑net‑asset‑value (BTC‑NAV) per share, amplifying downside risk if either Bitcoin falls or the premium compresses.
They upgrade their prior Strong Sell rating to Hold, but only because the author’s short‑term view of Bitcoin has improved given expectations for a more dovish Fed in 2026.
The piece calls Strategy’s original $150k year‑end BTC assumption “unrealistic,” noting that management’s new $85k–$110k BTC range for 2025 significantly lowers the implied upside. ^[32]
A central concern is dilution:
- The author cites share count growth of roughly 20% year‑to‑date and notes that Strategy issued 8.214 million new shares on December 1 under its ATM program. ^[33]
- They argue this dependence on capital markets becomes especially dangerous if credit conditions tighten while Bitcoin is weak.

Bottom line from this camp: holding existing MSTR may be acceptable for BTC bulls, but they see little reason to aggressively buy the dip at current levels.

4. 24/7 Wall St: Did $1,000 in MSTR turn into “4D chess” or a misstep?

24/7 Wall St’s piece “Strategy (MSTR) Turned $1,000 Into $637 in 2025: 4D Chess or Checkmate?”—also highlighted within the last 24 hours—frames 2025 as a painful year for latecomers: ^[34]

A $1,000 investment at the start of 2025 is now worth about $637, a 37% loss, while the S&P 500 is up around 16% on the back of tech and AI gains. ^[35]
The article argues that Strategy has “bet everything on Bitcoin,” transforming itself from a software firm into the premier Bitcoin holding company.
It highlights ongoing share issuance, estimating over 22% dilution for existing holders in 2025 due to ATM offerings and other financings. ^[36]
24/7 Wall St also notes a subtle but important shift in messaging: CEO Michael Saylor has opened the door to selling Bitcoin if the stock’s market cap falls materially below the value of its BTC holdings (mNAV < 1) for an extended period, especially to protect preferred dividends. ^[37]

The tone is skeptical: the article questions whether Saylor’s defenders are witnessing 4D chess or just high‑stakes speculation whose risks fall disproportionately on retail investors.

5. Barchart: “Beaten‑down MSTR” still betting on a Bitcoin comeback

Barchart’s longform feature, “MicroStrategy Is Still Betting on a Bitcoin Comeback to Lift Beaten‑Down MSTR Stock,” provides one of the most detailed breakdowns of Strategy’s capital structure and strategy: ^[38]

Key highlights:

The company added 10,624 BTC last week for $962.7M at an average price of $90,615, bringing total holdings to about 660,624 BTC acquired for $49.35B. ^[39]
MSTR hit a 52‑week low around $155 on December 1 amid the crypto sell‑off but has since rebounded to roughly $190, still far below its recent peak near $457. ^[40]
Strategy has issued four preferred securities in 2025, raising about $6.7B, and now faces $750M–$800M in annual preferred dividends on top of other obligations. ^[41]
The article estimates that over $20B in capital has been raised this year to fuel Bitcoin purchases, with 116,555 BTC added year‑to‑date and a 26% Bitcoin “yield” versus a 30% full‑year target. ^[42]
It also notes that Strategy now holds about 3.1% of total future BTC supply and recently received a B‑ minus credit rating from S&P, opening access to a much larger high‑yield bond market. ^[43]
Barchart cites 15 covering analysts, with 12 rating the stock “Strong Buy”, one “Moderate Buy” and two “Hold,” and an average price target around $513—well above current levels. ^[44]

The conclusion is cautiously bullish for high‑risk investors but emphasizes that shareholders are effectively buying into a leveraged Bitcoin fund with added operating and financing risk.

6. Wider macro coverage: Bitcoin treasuries at a discount and MSCI index risk

Strategy is also at the center of broader debates about Bitcoin‑heavy companies:

A widely shared piece on TheStreet, “Why Bitcoin Treasuries Are Trading at a Discount,” argues that companies whose balance sheets are dominated by Bitcoin—like Strategy—tend to trade below the value of their holdings because investors price in volatility, dilution risk, and governance concerns. ^[45]
A Business Insider story today reports that MSCI is considering a plan to exclude companies with more than 50% of their assets in Bitcoin or other crypto from major indexes, treating them more like investment funds than operating companies. Crypto insiders, including Strategy allies, have pushed back strongly, warning that such a move could further pressure valuations of “Bitcoin treasury” names like MSTR. ^[46]

If MSCI moves ahead in January, it could force some index funds and benchmarked investors to reduce or eliminate exposure, adding another risk factor to Strategy’s already volatile stock.

How Strategy’s fundamentals look after the Q3 beat

Despite its Bitcoin pivot, Strategy still runs a meaningful analytics software business.

From recent filings and analyst data: ^[47]

Trailing 12‑month revenue is just under $475M.
Q3 2025 revenue grew ~11% year‑on‑year and beat expectations by about 10%. ^[48]
Gross margin is around 76%, consistent with high‑margin enterprise software. ^[49]
But the vast majority of net income now comes from revaluation of digital assets, not from software operations.

On classic valuation metrics (which are somewhat distorted here):

P/E: ~8–9x trailing earnings
Price‑to‑book: ~1.0x
Price‑to‑sales: well over 100x, because market cap reflects Bitcoin’s fair value while sales are still software‑sized. ^[50]

This is why many analysts treat MSTR more like a closed‑end Bitcoin fund plus a small SaaS business than like Oracle or Salesforce.

Street forecasts and price targets for MSTR

Across multiple data providers, the consensus narrative is surprising: despite huge volatility and a brutal drawdown, most analysts still see significant upside—provided Bitcoin cooperates.

What the numbers look like today:

Analyst count:
- MarketScreener lists 14 analysts, with a “Buy” mean consensus and an average target of $480.36. ^[51]
- Barchart cites 15 analysts with an average target of $513.46, mostly “Strong Buy” ratings. ^[52]
- MarketBeat reports a consensus target of $475.80 and a “Moderate Buy” rating with most brokers at Buy/Overweight. ^[53]
Implied upside from ~$189: roughly +150% to +170% to reach that $475–$515 target band. ^[54]
Management’s own non‑GAAP framework previously pointed to about $80 in 2025 EPS under a very bullish Bitcoin scenario (BTC at $150k), though the official GAAP guidance range is now much wider due to the lower BTC price assumptions. ^[55]

Independent valuation platforms like Simply Wall St show community “fair value” estimates clustering between $480 and $663, which, if realized, would more than triple the current share price. ^[56]

Important caveat: all of these forecasts are extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s path, future dilution, and regulatory outcomes. If BTC revisits the lows or MSCI exclusion triggers large forced selling, these targets could prove wildly optimistic.

Major risks investors are focusing on right now

Today’s research and newsflow repeatedly circle back to a handful of key risks:

Bitcoin price and macro sensitivity
- Strategy’s earnings and equity value are tightly linked to Bitcoin, which has already swung from $111k to $80k to ~92k in just a few weeks. ^[57]
- Fed policy and broader risk sentiment could easily swing BTC—and MSTR—another 30–50% in either direction over short periods.
Dilution and capital structure complexity
- Heavy reliance on ATM equity issuance and new preferreds has already diluted common shareholders by over 20% this year, with billions more potentially to come. ^[58]
- Annual preferred dividends now run in the $750M–$800M range, creating an ongoing need for strong BTC performance and/or further financing. ^[59]
Potential forced Bitcoin sales
- Multiple articles highlight CEO Phong Le’s acknowledgement that MSTR could sell BTC if its market capitalization trades persistently below the value of its holdings (mNAV < 1) and capital markets close, a sharp rhetorical shift from Saylor’s earlier “we will never sell” stance. ^[60]
Index exclusion and regulatory overhang
- MSCI’s potential move to exclude Bitcoin‑heavy companies from indexes could trigger passive outflows, depress valuations, and make capital raising harder. ^[61]
- Class‑action securities litigation also alleges that Strategy understated Bitcoin risk and overstated expected profitability of its BTC‑centric strategy following adoption of the new crypto accounting standard, adding legal uncertainty. ^[62]
Core software business execution
- While overshadowed by Bitcoin, Strategy still needs to grow its analytics and AI software segment to justify any premium valuation beyond the BTC it holds. Recent 10–11% revenue growth is solid but modest relative to high‑growth SaaS peers. ^[63]

Who Strategy Inc stock might be for (and who it probably isn’t)

Putting all of this together, the message from today’s coverage is fairly clear:

Strategy (MSTR) may appeal to:

High‑conviction Bitcoin bulls who:
- Want leveraged upside to BTC through a corporate balance sheet plus optionality from the software business.
- Are comfortable with extreme volatility, drawdowns >50%, and complex financing structures.
Speculators who believe:
- Bitcoin’s current slump is temporary,
- MSCI will either back away from index exclusion or the market has largely priced it in, and
- Strategy’s new USD reserve meaningfully reduces tail‑risk around dividends and debt. ^[64]

Strategy (MSTR) is likely not suitable for:

Conservative or income‑focused investors looking for predictable earnings, stable dividends, or low volatility.
Those who don’t want direct crypto exposure; owning MSTR is functionally similar to holding a leveraged Bitcoin ETF, plus idiosyncratic corporate risk. ^[65]
Investors unwilling to accept the possibility that future dilution, regulatory changes, or forced BTC sales could severely impair long‑term returns even if Bitcoin eventually rebounds.

Bottom line: Strategy Inc stock on December 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Strategy Inc stock sits at the crossroads of three powerful forces:

A brutal 2025 drawdown that has left recent buyers deep in the red, even as three‑year returns remain massive. ^[66]
A renewed Bitcoin buying spree and a $1.44 billion USD reserve designed to keep the strategy alive through storms. ^[67]
A sharply divided analyst community, where consensus price targets imply triple‑digit upside, but influential voices warn that dilution, leverage and macro headwinds make “buying the dip” far from a sure thing. ^[68]

If you strip away the branding and software entirely, Strategy Inc is a highly leveraged, publicly traded Bitcoin treasury with a volatile capital structure. For some investors, that’s exactly the appeal. For others, it’s a flashing red warning sign.

Either way, anyone considering MSTR today should approach it as a speculative position, size it accordingly, and be prepared—psychologically and financially—for a ride that could be just as wild in 2026 as it has been this year.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.