Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock on December 4, 2025: Cash Reserve Pivot, Index Risks and a 55% Rebound Call

Published: December 4, 2025 – This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

Snapshot: Where Strategy Inc Stock Stands Today

Strategy Inc (Nasdaq: MSTR) — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and now branding itself as the world’s first Bitcoin Treasury Company — is back in the spotlight on December 4, 2025. The stock is caught between deep drawdowns and bold new bullish calls, amid a historic pivot to a dual Bitcoin–cash reserve strategy and mounting index-exclusion risk.

As of the close on December 3, Strategy shares finished around $188.39, up roughly 3.9% on the day but still about 60% below their July 2025 high near $457. ^[1] Over the last six months, the stock has dropped roughly 50–55%, closely tracking — and amplifying — Bitcoin’s sharp pullback from its all‑time highs. ^[2]

At the same time, Strategy has:

Built a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to support preferred dividends and debt service. ^[3]
Reaffirmed an aggressive FY 2025 EPS guidance of ~80 on a Bitcoin‑linked model. ^[4]
Attracted fresh institutional buying from American Century, Guggenheim and others. ^[5]
Drawn a 55% upside technical call from crypto markets site CoinCentral, which sees a rare “abandoned baby” reversal pattern on the chart. ^[6]
Come under pressure as MSCI considers removing it from major equity indices, potentially triggering billions in outflows, according to JPMorgan. ^[7]

Here’s how today’s key news, forecasts and analyses fit together.

Strategy’s Business in 2025: A Bitcoin Treasury With an Analytics Side Hustle

Strategy describes itself as the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, using equity and debt financing plus operating cash flow to accumulate Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. ^[8]

Alongside that treasury operation, it still runs a traditional business: an AI‑powered enterprise analytics software platform. In Q3 2025, that software segment generated about $128.7 million in revenue, up 10.9% year over year, but dwarfed in impact by the accounting swings from Bitcoin. ^[9]

Key fundamentals today:

Bitcoin holdings: ~650,000 BTC, roughly 3–3.1% of the 21 million coins that will ever exist. ^[10]
Market cap: roughly $49–54 billion, depending on the source and intraday price. ^[11]
Latest quarter: EPS of $8.42, beating a consensus expectation near –$0.10, with net income around $2.79 billion largely driven by Bitcoin’s fair‑value accounting. ^[12]
No common dividend, but multiple series of high‑coupon preferred stock tied to its capital‑raising program. ^[13]

In practice, investors increasingly treat Strategy less as a software company and more as a high‑beta Bitcoin proxy with corporate leverage layered on top.

November’s Crash: Strategy as a “Bitcoin Amplifier on Steroids”

In November, Strategy stock fell 34.3% according to a Motley Fool analysis published via Nasdaq, roughly doubling Bitcoin’s 16.1% drop over the same period. ^[14]

The article characterizes Strategy as a “Bitcoin amplifier on steroids”:

Management continually borrows money and issues new shares to buy more Bitcoin.
That leverage means the stock tends to outperform Bitcoin on the way up and underperform on the way down. ^[15]

Over the past three years, Strategy has reportedly nearly doubled Bitcoin’s total gains, but also “doubles the pain” in sell‑offs. ^[16] That dynamic, combined with a 2025 Bitcoin correction from above $100,000 into the high $80,000s, explains why the shares now sit roughly 20% below their 200‑day moving average. ^[17]

Sentiment pieces on Yahoo Finance and other outlets frame this as a classic high‑beta, high‑correlation trade: MSTR is now “highly correlated with BTC,” with minimal room to hide if Bitcoin continues to slide. ^[18]

New USD War Chest: Strategy’s $1.44 Billion Cash Reserve

The biggest fundamental development heading into December 4 is Strategy’s creation of a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve, announced in a December 1 press release and widely dissected in crypto and equity media. ^[19]

What Strategy Actually Did

According to the company:

It raised cash via its at‑the‑market equity program and ring‑fenced $1.44 billion as a dedicated USD Reserve.
The reserve is meant to fund at least 12 months of dividends on the company’s preferred stock and interest on its debt, with a goal of 24 months+ of coverage over time. ^[20]
Management says the reserve currently covers around 21 months of those obligations. ^[21]

Executive chairman Michael Saylor calls this a “next step” in Strategy’s evolution: a dual‑reserve model combining a massive BTC stack with a substantial dollar buffer designed to weather crypto volatility. ^[22]

Why It Matters for the Stock

Barchart’s deep‑dive on December 3 breaks down the implications: ^[23]

With roughly $800 million in annual preferred dividends, the $1.44B reserve covers about 1.8 years of payouts.
Strategy’s enterprise value is around $68 billion, with $8.2 billion of convertible debt, implying a relatively low loan‑to‑value ratio near 11% — as long as Bitcoin prices don’t collapse.
The move improves perceived creditworthiness, but doesn’t remove the core risk: if Bitcoin stays in a downtrend, pressure builds to sell BTC or issue more high‑cost capital, both of which could weigh on equity holders.

Coinpedia, summarizing on‑chain analytics from CryptoQuant, notes that Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases collapsed from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with only 135 BTC added so far this month — a sharp slowdown in its once‑aggressive buying. ^[24]

In other words, the company is prioritizing liquidity and survival over maximal BTC accumulation, at least for now.

Updated 2025 Guidance: Earnings Tied Directly to Bitcoin’s Year‑End Price

In that same press release, Strategy re‑based its FY 2025 guidance on a more conservative Bitcoin price range after the recent sell‑off. ^[25]

Previously, management assumed BTC at $150,000 on December 31, 2025, roughly in line with the then‑consensus among third‑party research shops. After Bitcoin slipped from about $111,600 at the end of October to lows near $80,660 on November 21, Strategy updated its models. ^[26]

New guidance bands, assuming BTC between $85,000 and $110,000 at year‑end:

Operating income (loss): from –$7.0 billion to +$9.5 billion.
Net income (loss): from –$5.5 billion to +$6.3 billion.
Diluted EPS (loss): from –$17.00 to +$19.00 per share. ^[27]

The company also reaffirmed aggressive Bitcoin KPI targets, including:

BTC yield:22–26%.
BTC dollar gain:$8.4–$12.8 billion in 2025, funded by ongoing capital raises and BTC purchases. ^[28]

Several analyst and fund‑flow pieces — from MarketBeat, Longbridge and others — highlight that Strategy has formally set FY 2025 EPS guidance around 80.00, which abstractly reflects the extreme leverage of these Bitcoin‑driven accounting swings. ^[29]

The takeaway: MSTR’s earnings profile is now almost mechanically linked to Bitcoin’s year‑end mark. The stock is less about traditional P/E and more about a structured bet on a future BTC price corridor.

Index Headache: MSCI and the Shadow of Forced Outflows

One of the most consequential storylines around Strategy stock right now is index eligibility.

MSCI’s Digital‑Asset Treasury Rule

In a December 3 Reuters interview from Dubai, Saylor confirmed that Strategy is “engaging” with MSCI as the index provider considers whether to exclude companies whose business model is to buy cryptocurrencies from its indices. ^[30]

Key points from the coverage:

MSCI plans to decide by January 15 whether to drop such companies from its benchmarks.
JPMorgan estimates that if Strategy is excluded and other providers follow, up to $8.8–9 billion in passive outflows could hit the stock. ^[31]
Strategy is currently part of MSCI USA and MSCI World, which feed a wide range of ETFs and index funds.

Coinpedia’s separate analysis calls this a “major market test,” noting that Strategy’s digital asset holdings far exceed the 50%‑of‑assets line MSCI is reportedly using to define “crypto treasury companies.” ^[32]

Saylor, for his part, downplays the risk, telling Reuters that exclusion “won’t make any difference” to the company’s strategy. ^[33] But the market clearly cares: removing a highly volatile, 3.4‑beta stock from index universes could force passive selling even if fundamentals don’t change. ^[34]

S&P 500’s Earlier Rejection

This MSCI story lands just weeks after an FT column highlighted that S&P’s index committee declined to add Strategy to the S&P 500, despite its size and profitability, likely because the firm looks more like a Bitcoin fund than an operating company. ^[35]

That rejection potentially cost Strategy an estimated $16 billion in passive inflows, according to the FT analysis, reinforcing the idea that index rules now explicitly penalize pure‑play Bitcoin treasuries. ^[36]

Technical Picture: A Rare Bullish Pattern and a 55% Upside Call

Despite the macro headwinds, some technical analysts see opportunity.

A December 4 CoinCentral piece argues that MSTR stock could rally about 55% from recent lows, fueled by a rare “Abandoned Baby” candlestick pattern formed when the stock bottomed around $155.61. ^[37]

Highlights from that analysis:

The pattern — a three‑candle reversal with a gap down, a “floating” indecision candle, and a gap‑up bullish candle — is described as “one of the most dependable bullish reversal signals” in classical technical analysis. ^[38]
CoinCentral’s base case sees MSTR bouncing toward $200 and potentially as high as $280, roughly 50–55% above current levels, if Bitcoin stabilizes above $90,000 and macro conditions (including potential Fed rate cuts) stay supportive. ^[39]
Key support sits near $155, roughly the 52‑week low, with the bullish thesis breaking down if that level fails. ^[40]

Other technical signals are less exuberant. TradingView’s aggregated indicators show “sell” on the daily and weekly time frames, with only a “neutral” signal over the one‑month horizon, reflecting ongoing downtrend pressure despite the short‑term bounce. ^[41]

Zacks and several trading blogs describe the stock as “max oversold”, noting hammer‑type candles around the recent bottom and the fact that MSTR has retested its 2025 breakout zone — technically a common place for longer‑term bulls to re‑enter. ^[42]

Big Money Flows: Institutions Are Buying (Carefully)

On December 4, MarketBeat reported that American Century Companies Inc. increased its Strategy position by 21.3% in Q2, to 33,927 shares valued at about $13.7 million at the time. The same article notes that institutional ownership sits near 59.8% after multiple large investors raised stakes. ^[43]

Key points from that and related filings:

American Century’s move comes after Strategy’s big Q3 earnings beat (EPS 8.42 vs –0.10 consensus) and double‑digit software revenue growth. ^[44]
Separate MarketBeat and Longbridge alerts show Guggenheim Capital, Schroders and other asset managers also boosting holdings, often citing the same 80.00 EPS guidance and Bitcoin‑driven upside. ^[45]
At the same time, others have been trimming, with insider sale reports reminding investors that volatility cuts both ways. ^[46]

Analyst consensus is similarly mixed but skewing bullish:

Barchart aggregates 15 analysts as a “Strong Buy” on MSTR, with a mean price target around $541.62 and a high target near $705, implying 200%+ upside from current levels. ^[47]
MarketBeat’s data, based on a slightly different analyst set, shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average price target of about $485.80. ^[48]

Those targets assume Bitcoin doesn’t break down well below the new guidance band — and that Strategy maintains its ability to issue equity and preferreds at reasonable terms.

High‑Profile Commentary: Jim Cramer’s “Leveraged Bet on Bitcoin”

Media personalities are weighing in too.

In a December 4 piece, Insider Monkey recapped Jim Cramer’s latest comments on Strategy, where he described the company as having “simply become a leveraged bet on Bitcoin itself” and highlighted its more than $8 billion in debt used to buy additional BTC. ^[49]

Cramer’s core argument:

Crypto has a “bet the farm” culture that can spill over into equities like MSTR.
Strategy is a particularly extreme embodiment of that, with a business model predicated on borrowing and issuing stock to accumulate more Bitcoin.
That leverage looks brilliant in bull markets and brutal in drawdowns, raising the risk that some investors will see Saylor as a kind of “Humpty Dumpty” figure if prices fall far enough. ^[50]

Other commentators echo this framing. The Motley Fool, for example, stresses that the software business has become an afterthought, with valuation metrics like P/E and price‑to‑sales losing meaning when management is explicitly optimizing for BTC exposure, not dollar profits. ^[51]

Why MSTR Trades Below Its “Bitcoin Value”

Another widely discussed December 4 article, from Leverage Shares via TradingView, asks “Why MicroStrategy Is Trading Below Bitcoin” and concludes that investors are now discounting the stock versus its underlying BTC holdings. ^[52]

The piece points to several reasons:

Regulatory “Institutionalization” of Crypto
Proposed U.S. laws — including the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and a so‑called GENIUS Act mentioned in the piece — aim to bring stablecoins and tokenized assets into a clear, rules‑based regime. That could make direct, regulated Bitcoin and stablecoin exposure more accessible to institutions, eroding the need for a proxy like Strategy. ^[53]
MSCI and Index Risk
The same TradingView article notes MSCI’s plan to eject companies with digital assets over half their total assets from its Global Investable Market Indexes — the same issue Reuters and Coinpedia highlight. ^[54]
ETF Alternatives & Fees
With low‑fee spot Bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. and elsewhere, some investors ask: “Why hold the proxy when you can own the real thing?”

Put together, these factors help explain why MSTR has gone from trading at a premium to its Bitcoin net asset value to trading at a discount in late 2025. ^[55]

Bitcoin’s Macro Backdrop: 2022 Vibes and ETF Outflows

Strategy’s fate is still tethered to Bitcoin’s.

Recent crypto‑market research from Coinpedia, CryptoQuant and others paints a cautious picture: ^[56]

On‑chain indicators such as CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index have dropped to zero, a level not seen since the early‑2022 risk‑off period.
Analysts see rising odds that BTC could revisit the $70,000–$55,000 range in 2025 if current weakness persists. ^[57]
November saw a record $3.47 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, with the largest iShares vehicle alone losing $2.34 billion as investors sold below cost. ^[58]
Bitcoin has lately bounced back above $93,000, helped by expectations of further Fed rate cuts, but resistance bands around $99,000 and $122,000 are seen as key hurdles. ^[59]

For Strategy shareholders, that macro setup translates into wide scenario bands:

A renewed Bitcoin rally could reflate BTC NAV and earnings and validate bullish price targets north of $500. ^[60]
A grinding or sharp BTC downtrend could force asset sales, increase credit stress, or make new capital raises far more dilutive — all clearly negative for MSTR. ^[61]

Strategy Stock Outlook: Key Things to Watch After December 4, 2025

Putting all of today’s news, forecasts and analysis together, the short‑to‑medium‑term outlook for Strategy Inc stock hinges on five main variables:

Bitcoin’s Path vs. Strategy’s Guidance Band
- Management now models Bitcoin at $85k–$110k by year‑end 2025.
- Sustained trading below the band risks pushing earnings into the –$7B / –$5.5B loss scenario and could trigger more aggressive balance‑sheet moves. ^[62]
MSCI’s January 15 Decision
- A removal from MSCI indices could force up to ~$9B in selling, according to JPMorgan estimates cited by Reuters and Barchart. ^[63]
- Even if Saylor insists it “won’t make any difference,” passive flows can meaningfully affect liquidity, volatility and valuation.
The Durability of the USD Reserve Strategy
- The $1.44B reserve currently covers around 21 months of dividends and interest, buying Strategy time in a prolonged downturn. ^[64]
- The key questions: Will management top up this reserve if Bitcoin falls further, and what dilution will that entail?
Institutional and Insider Behavior
- Recent buys from American Century, Guggenheim, Schroders and other institutions signal that some large investors view current levels as attractive, especially relative to long‑term analyst targets above $450–$540. ^[65]
- Continued insider selling, or a reversal in institutional flows, would send a very different signal. ^[66]
Next Earnings and Volatility
- TradingView lists Strategy’s next earnings date as February 3, 2026, which will be the first full look at the impact of the dual‑reserve policy and updated BTC assumptions. ^[67]
- With a historical 60‑month beta of around 3.4 and some analysts calling the stock a “trade, not an investment,” volatility around that print is likely to be extreme. ^[68]

Bottom Line

On December 4, 2025, Strategy Inc stock sits at the crossroads:

Bulls point to the new USD reserve, institutional buying, and multiple forecasts suggesting 50–200% upside if Bitcoin recovers and index risks are navigated successfully. ^[69]
Bears highlight November’s 34.3% decline, MSCI’s looming decision, ETF outflows from Bitcoin, and the simple fact that Strategy is — in Jim Cramer’s words — “a leveraged bet on Bitcoin itself” backed by over $8 billion in debt. ^[70]

For now, Strategy remains exactly what its own investor materials say it is: a Bitcoin treasury vehicle with software attached. Anyone considering the stock has to decide whether they want exposure to that specific mix of crypto price risk, index‑flow risk, and capital‑market risk, rather than to Bitcoin or software alone.

If you’re evaluating Strategy Inc stock, it’s essential to:

Focus on your own risk tolerance and time horizon.
Understand that small moves in Bitcoin can translate into outsized swings in MSTR.
Treat all analyst targets and technical patterns as scenarios, not guarantees.

Again, nothing in this article is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Strategy Inc stock. It is a high‑volatility instrument tied to a volatile asset class, and any decision should be based on independent research and, if needed, professional financial advice.