Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock on November 29, 2025: CalPERS Hit, MSCI Index Risk and Big-Money Buying Collide

Strategy Inc – the company formerly known as MicroStrategy – is back in the headlines as one of the most controversial ways to gain Bitcoin exposure through the stock market. As of the November 28 close, Strategy Inc’s Nasdaq‑listed common stock (ticker: MSTR) finished at $177.18, with after‑hours trading nudging it toward $178.40. That’s a modest weekly gain of about 3% – but still caps a brutal multi‑month drawdown from 2025 highs near the mid‑$400s. ^[1]

At the same time, the company is sitting on roughly 650,000 Bitcoin, making it the world’s largest listed Bitcoin treasury, while its stock now trades at or even below the value of the BTC it holds on key valuation metrics. ^[2]

On November 29, 2025, several fresh storylines converged around Strategy Inc stock:

A big paper loss at CalPERS, America’s largest public pension fund
Growing talk that MSCI could eject MSTR from major indices
Evidence that institutional buyers are still piling in, including Norges Bank
Soaring funding costs as Strategy leans on double‑digit‑yield preferred stock
Ongoing debate over whether MSTR is now “cheap Bitcoin” or a stretched, leveraged bet

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at what’s happening with Strategy Inc stock today – and what it may mean for investors watching this Bitcoin‑centric name.

1. What Strategy Inc actually is in 2025

Strategy Inc describes itself as “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company”, a U.S.‑listed firm that has adopted Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. It funds that strategy with a mix of: ^[3]

Common stock (MSTR)
Multiple series of high‑yield perpetual preferred stock (STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, STRE)
Convertible senior notes and other debt
Cash flows from its AI‑powered enterprise analytics software business

In other words, Strategy is part Bitcoin holding company, part software vendor. The Bitcoin stack dominates the headlines and financials; the software division provides recurring revenue and helps the company argue it is an operating business, not simply a crypto fund.

2. Strategy Inc stock today: price and performance snapshot

Market data from StockAnalysis and Strategy‑focused coverage paint a picture of a stock deep into correction territory: ^[4]

Last close (Nov 28, 2025): $177.18 (+0.88% on the day)
After‑hours indication: around $178.40
Rough market cap: about $51 billion, based on company metrics and public data
Recent performance:
- Around –49% over the last three months
- Roughly –39% year‑to‑date in 2025
- Over –50% versus the last 12 months, from a 52‑week high near $457

A new note from QuiverQuant highlights that MSTR rose about 3% this week and was the 8th most‑searched ticker on its platform, underlining intense retail and institutional interest despite the drawdown. ^[5]

Put differently: volatility is the point. Strategy Inc stock rarely trades like a normal software name; it behaves more like a leveraged Bitcoin proxy with equity‑market liquidity.

3. CalPERS’ painful lesson – and why MSCI’s decision matters

One of today’s largest headlines comes from AMBCrypto, which reports that the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) – the biggest public pension fund in the U.S. – has taken a sharp hit on its MSTR position. ^[6]

Key details from the report:

CalPERS acquired 448,157 MSTR shares in Q3, investing more than $144 million.
After the recent sell‑off, that position is now worth roughly $80 million, implying a paper loss of around 45% in just a few months.
Because CalPERS manages over $550 billion in assets, the damage is manageable at the fund level, but symbolically powerful: a marquee institutional investor is nursing a steep loss on a high‑profile Bitcoin‑proxy trade.

The same piece highlights an even bigger overhang: index‑exclusion risk.

JPMorgan has warned that Strategy’s heavy reliance on Bitcoin may violate index rules aimed at excluding pure investment vehicles.
Passive funds tracking major indices currently hold nearly $9 billion of MSTR, according to the coverage.
The bank estimates that removal from just the MSCI USA Index could force $2.8 billion of outflows, while broader exclusions (including the Nasdaq 100) could push forced selling up to $8.8 billion. ^[7]

MSCI is expected to clarify its stance by January 15, 2026. If MSTR is formally removed, passive trackers would be compelled to dump shares regardless of fundamentals – a major source of potential downside pressure.

4. Shut out of the S&P 500 – and a brutal November

Today’s index worries build on a separate setback: Strategy (still widely referred to as MicroStrategy in some media) missed out on S&P 500 inclusion again. A new Coinpaper article notes that the S&P index committee picked SanDisk instead, even though MSTR now meets the standard criteria on market cap, profitability, liquidity and listing. ^[8]

A few important points from that coverage:

MSTR closed November down about 34%, marking its fifth straight monthly loss.
Historically, November has often been a strong month for the stock; this year’s performance sits deep in negative territory.
The rejection reinforces concerns that index committees are wary of including a Bitcoin‑heavy company in flagship benchmarks, even when it checks the mechanical boxes.

The S&P 500 snub doesn’t directly force any selling – it simply means no automatic inflows from S&P‑tracking funds. But when you pair that with possible MSCI exclusion, you get a picture of a stock that may remain outside the index mainstream longer than bulls once hoped.

5. Strategy’s Bitcoin is now worth more than the company

For years, bulls embraced Strategy as a kind of “leveraged Bitcoin vault”, willing to pay well above the value of the BTC on its balance sheet. That premium has now largely disappeared – and even flipped to a discount.

A late‑November analysis from DL News reports that Strategy’s market‑to‑net‑asset value (mNAV) recently dropped to around 0.88, meaning: ^[9]

Investors are paying about $0.80–$0.90 in equity value for each $1 of Bitcoin Strategy holds.
At one point in May, the mNAV premium was about 1.8x – an 80% markup on its BTC stash.
It is the first time since 2020 that Strategy has traded at a sustained discount to its Bitcoin holdings.

DL News and the analysts it quotes estimate that Strategy holds roughly 649,870 BTC, worth about $56 billion at recent prices, with an average acquisition cost near $74,430 per coin – still leaving the company up on its Bitcoin position despite the sell‑off. ^[10]

On a diluted and enterprise‑value basis (factoring in debt), some mNAV measures are slightly above 1.0, but the core takeaway is stark:

Equity investors are no longer paying a big “Bitcoin premium” for Strategy.

For bulls, that’s an argument the stock is now a “cheap vehicle” for BTC exposure plus a small software business. For skeptics, it’s proof the market is treating Strategy as just another highly levered crypto vehicle, not a growth software name deserving a fat multiple. TechStock²+1

6. Funding the Bitcoin war chest: expensive preferreds and a new STRE deal

Strategy has been aggressively financing its Bitcoin accumulation via at‑the‑market equity programs and multiple preferred stock offerings. Zacks analysis (syndicated via Nasdaq and summarized in recent coverage) estimates the company has raised nearly $20 billion in 2025 alone using these tools. TechStock²+1

New STRE preferred stock

On November 7, 2025, Strategy announced the pricing of its 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stream Preferred Stock (STRE): ^[11]

7.75 million STRE shares offered at €80 per share
Stated amount / liquidation preference: €100 per share
Dividend: 10% per year on the €100 stated amount, paid in cash quarterly
If dividends are deferred, a “compounded dividend” mechanism can push the effective rate as high as 18% per year until arrears are caught up
Gross proceeds: roughly €620 million (~$715 million)
Net proceeds: about €608.8 million (~$702 million), to be used for Bitcoin purchases and general corporate purposes

Alongside earlier issues – STRK, STRF, STRD and STRC – STRE adds yet another layer of high‑yield, perpetual capital to Strategy’s balance sheet. A detailed breakdown from TS2 Tech and other outlets notes that: TechStock²+1

The STRC series’ dividend is set to step up from 9% to roughly 10.75–11%, after trading below its target price band.
Some newer euro‑denominated preferreds carry coupons up to around 12.5%, pushing Strategy’s blended cost of capital higher.
The company faces around $175 million of obligations due by year‑end, heightening investor focus on its ability to refinance and roll its complex capital structure.

S&P’s ‘B‑’ credit rating

In late October, S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy a ‘B‑’ issuer credit rating with a stable outlook – the first time a major agency has rated a Bitcoin‑treasury‑centric company. Coverage of the rating highlights S&P’s concerns: TechStock²

Strategy is structurally “long Bitcoin, short fiat” – BTC‑denominated assets vs. dollar/euro liabilities.
Hundreds of millions of dollars in annual preferred dividends, plus interest on convertible notes, must be funded largely through fresh equity and preferred issuance rather than Bitcoin sales.
A severe Bitcoin downturn aligned with future debt maturities could force asset sales at distressed prices or some form of restructuring.

At the same time, S&P acknowledges that Strategy currently has significant asset coverage over its debt and expects the company to meet obligations in the near term. The rating squarely puts Strategy in speculative‑grade (“junk”) territory, but also formalizes Bitcoin‑backed capital structures in mainstream credit analysis.

Growing debate about dividend sustainability

A separate piece from CoinTurk Finance – published today – underlines growing investor unease about Strategy’s $700 million‑plus annual dividend burden across its preferred stock stack. The report notes: ^[12]

MSTR shares are down about 40% from October highs, largely in line with Bitcoin’s drop from around $104,050 to roughly $90,900.
Retail investors on platforms like Reddit are questioning whether Strategy can meet its dividend commitments without continually raising new capital, dubbing it a “Ponzi‑ratio curve” in one viral post.
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has reiterated that the company does not intend to sell Bitcoin to fund obligations, intensifying reliance on capital markets.

In short, funding costs are rising, and the common stock sits at the bottom of a tall, expensive capital stack.

7. Institutions are buying hard – led by Norges Bank

Despite headline risk and volatility, institutional interest in Strategy Inc remains intense.

Massive new stake from Norges Bank

A fresh MarketBeat filing‑based report shows that Norges Bank, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, has opened a new position of 2,976,182 MSTR shares, valued at roughly $1.2 billion. That stake equates to around 1.09% of the company. ^[13]

Other filings published today reveal additional big‑money moves: ^[14]

Prudential Financial Inc. boosted its holdings by 7,527 shares in Q2 to 22,180 shares, valued at about $8.97 million.
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB publ increased its stake by 6,500 shares to 50,983 shares, worth roughly $20.6 million.
Williamson Legacy Group LLC initiated a new position of 2,744 shares, about $1.11 million at the time of filing.
Independent Family Office LLC ramped its holdings by 310% to 4,100 shares, making MSTR its 22nd‑largest holding.

Across these and other filings, MarketBeat estimates that about 59.8% of Strategy’s stock is now owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors, while corporate insiders collectively hold around 8.46%. ^[15]

What alternative data says

QuiverQuant’s latest dashboard paints a similar picture: ^[16]

In the most recent quarter, 630 institutional investors added MSTR, while 551 reduced positions.
The largest recent increases came from big trading and asset‑management firms adding millions of shares.
Over the last six months, insiders have executed 128 open‑market trades in MSTR – 19 buys and 109 sells – with key executives such as General Counsel W. Ming Shao and CFO Andrew Kang net sellers, while director Jarrod Patten has been a notable net buyer.

The message: institutional ownership is deep and active, but insiders have generally used rallies to trim exposure.

8. Analysts split: heavy upside targets vs new “Sell” calls

On the Wall Street side, sentiment remains tilted bullish but far from unanimous.

QuiverQuant tracks 10 recent analyst price targets on MSTR, with a median target around $510 – roughly 3x the current share price. Recent ratings include: ^[17]

HC Wainwright & Co.: “Buy”, target $475 (11/03/2025)
Canaccord Genuity: “Buy”, target $474 (11/03/2025)
TD Cowen: “Buy”, target $535 (10/31/2025)
BTIG: “Buy”, target $630 (10/31/2025)
Citigroup: “Buy”, target $485 (10/21/2025)
Mizuho: “Outperform”, target $586 (08/11/2025)

Zacks, by contrast, assigns Strategy a Rank #3 (Hold) and a Value Score of “F”, noting that while the stock now trades close to its book value (price‑to‑book near 0.97), the combination of leverage, Bitcoin exposure and capital‑raising needs makes it a high‑uncertainty name. TechStock²+1

And on November 28, Seeking Alpha contributor James Foord downgraded Strategy to “Sell”, arguing that the collapse of the mNAV premium, growing index‑exclusion risk and reliance on dilution outweigh the long‑term bull case for Bitcoin – even while acknowledging that bankruptcy risk appears low for now. ^[18]

Net‑net, the sell‑side sees massive upside if Bitcoin recovers and Strategy regains its premium, but some independent analysts warn that equity holders may bear the brunt of continued dilution and structural headwinds.

9. Macro backdrop: Bitcoin at ~90k keeps MSTR in the firing line

Everything about Strategy Inc ultimately flows back to Bitcoin.

AMBCrypto notes that BTC recently fell from about $104k to the low‑$90k range, dragging MSTR down around 40% from its October peaks. ^[19]
Another AMBCrypto article on today’s $15.4 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry points out that BTC is holding around $90,955, with leverage largely flushed from the market – a potential sign of a bottom but hardly a guarantee. ^[20]

In this environment, Strategy has become a “pressure valve” for crypto risk. A recent CoinDesk feature quotes analyst Tom Lee describing MSTR as the “most important stock to watch” in crypto, explaining that institutional traders frequently use it as a hedge against Bitcoin and Ethereum losses because its options market is far more liquid than many on‑chain derivatives. ^[21]

Another CoinDesk analysis examines Strategy’s 0.625% convertible notes due 2030, whose holders gain a put option in September 2027. With the stock currently below the conversion price, the piece argues that the real pressure point is 18–24 months away, not immediate, and that Strategy retains multiple levers – additional equity issuance, small BTC sales, or even paying certain obligations in stock – to manage that event. ^[22]

Together, these stories reinforce a key point:

Short‑term MSTR moves are dominated by Bitcoin’s price path and derivatives flows, while the true balance‑sheet stress tests lie several years out.

10. So is Strategy Inc stock now a bargain or a warning sign?

Putting today’s news in context, a few themes stand out for anyone considering – or already holding – Strategy Inc stock:

Bullish arguments

Enormous Bitcoin stash at a discount
Strategy holds nearly 650,000 BTC, and its equity currently trades at or below the value of that hoard on key mNAV metrics. For believers in a renewed Bitcoin bull market, MSTR can look like a leveraged, tax‑advantaged way to gain upside, with the software business thrown in. ^[23]
Deep institutional sponsorship
Norges Bank’s billion‑dollar stake and ongoing buying from major insurers, banks and wealth managers suggest that large, sophisticated investors still see a place for MSTR in portfolios – even as volatility and index risk rise. ^[24]
Supportive analyst targets
With a median Wall Street target around $510 and several high‑profile “Buy” ratings, MSTR offers substantial theoretical upside if Strategy can navigate its funding needs and if Bitcoin recovers meaningfully. ^[25]

Bearish arguments

Rising funding costs and complex capital stack
Double‑digit preferred yields (10–12.5%+), compounded dividend features that can ratchet up to 18%, and hundreds of millions in annual dividend obligations make the common stock highly junior in an expensive structure. That’s great for preferred holders; less so for ordinary shareholders. ^[26]
Index‑exclusion risk and market structure
Being skipped by the S&P 500 and facing potential MSCI removal raises the real possibility of forced passive selling in the billions of dollars, independent of fundamentals. That’s a structural overhang no traditional software stock faces. ^[27]
Collapsed mNAV premium and insider selling
The shift from a rich premium over Bitcoin holdings to a discount reflects a loss of market confidence in Strategy’s ability to turn its treasury strategy into durable equity returns. Heavy insider selling relative to buying over the last six months reinforces that caution. ^[28]
Extreme Bitcoin sensitivity
If BTC breaks decisively below the mid‑$70k area and stays there, fair‑value accounting would likely swing Strategy into reported Bitcoin losses, stressing coverage ratios and potentially making new capital raises harder or more dilutive. ^[29]

11. Bottom line for November 29, 2025

On November 29, 2025, Strategy Inc sits at the crossroads of institutional experimentation and market skepticism:

A mega‑fund like CalPERS is nursing a big paper loss and facing the possibility that index providers may label MSTR too Bitcoin‑heavy for their benchmarks. ^[30]
At the same time, Norges Bank and other large investors are still buying, betting that a discounted Bitcoin hoard plus an AI‑driven software business will ultimately pay off. ^[31]
Strategy’s own financing strategy – layered, high‑yield perpetual preferreds and ATM equity programs – has enabled it to amass an unprecedented BTC war chest, but at the cost of elevated risk for common shareholders. ^[32]

For anyone watching MSTR, the key questions now are:

Does Bitcoin stabilize and recover from the ~90k area, or lurch lower?
How will MSCI and other index providers rule on Bitcoin‑heavy balance sheets?
Can Strategy keep rolling and expanding its capital stack without eroding equity value through dilution and higher coupons?

Strategy Inc stock is not a typical tech name. It is effectively a high‑beta, leveraged Bitcoin instrument wrapped in a listed company with a real – but smaller – software business attached.

Nothing here is investment advice; MSTR is a high‑risk, high‑reward security that can move violently in both directions. Anyone considering it should do thorough independent research, stress‑test their own Bitcoin assumptions, and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making decisions.