Strategy Inc — the Bitcoin-heavy company formerly known as MicroStrategy — is back in the spotlight after another brutal two days for both its stock and for Bitcoin itself. As of mid-day on December 2, 2025, Strategy’s Nasdaq-listed shares (ticker: MSTR) trade around $171, down sharply from their autumn highs and roughly 50–60% below peak levels, with three‑month returns near ‑49% and one‑year returns around ‑56%. [1]
At the center of the latest sell‑off:
- A new $1.44 billion US dollar reserve funded by equity issuance.
- A dramatic cut to 2025 profit guidance, now spanning from multi‑billion‑dollar losses to multi‑billion‑dollar gains.
- Explicit confirmation from management that Bitcoin sales are possible as a “last resort” if certain stress conditions are met. [2]
Here’s a detailed, news‑style breakdown of everything investors and traders need to know today about Strategy Inc stock, based on the latest reporting and analysis dated 2 December 2025.
What Strategy Inc Is Today: A Bitcoin Treasury With a Software Side Hustle
Strategy Inc rebranded from MicroStrategy in 2025 but remains the same core vehicle:
- A Bitcoin treasury company that has used equity and debt issuance to accumulate a massive Bitcoin position.
- An AI + business intelligence (BI) software business that still generates roughly $100+ million in quarterly revenue, but is now secondary to the Bitcoin balance sheet story. [3]
According to the company and regulatory filings, Strategy now holds about 650,000 BTC, roughly 3.1% of the total 21 million coins that will ever exist. [4]
That positioning makes MSTR one of the purest leveraged Bitcoin proxy stocks in global markets — and that leverage is exactly what’s being stress‑tested as Bitcoin slides.
Price Action: Heavy Selling, Record Volume, and a Deep Drawdown
After a blistering run earlier in 2025, Strategy’s stock has entered a steep correction:
- Over the past month, various market trackers estimate MSTR is down 35–40%, hitting its lowest levels since late 2024 as Bitcoin has given back more than 30% from its October all‑time high above $126,000 to the mid‑$80,000s. [5]
- On Monday, December 1, the stock fell intraday by roughly double digits and closed down about 3.25% to $171.42, with more than 42.9 million shares traded — the heaviest volume in nearly a year, according to TipRanks. [6]
- Strategy’s own metrics page now shows a 3‑month return of –49% and a 1‑year return of –56%, while MarketBeat data puts the 12‑month low around $155.61 and the high above $450. [7]
In other words, a stock that once surged faster than Bitcoin on the way up is now underperforming Bitcoin on the way down, amplifying both gains and losses for investors who use MSTR as a BTC proxy.
The $1.44 Billion USD Reserve: Lifeline or Red Flag?
The biggest new development is Strategy’s decision to build a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve (“USD Reserve”), announced via a detailed press release and SEC filing on December 1. [8]
Key details:
- Purpose: The reserve is designed to fund dividends on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt, giving the company at least 12–21 months of coverage today, with a stated goal of eventually reaching 24 months. [9]
- Funding source: It was funded by selling additional Class A common stock through at‑the‑market (ATM) equity offerings — a move that dilutes existing shareholders but improves near‑term liquidity. [10]
- Management stance:
- Executive chairman Michael Saylor called the reserve a logical “next step” to complement the company’s Bitcoin holdings and support its ambition to be a “leading issuer of digital credit.” [11]
- CEO Phong Le emphasized that the move aims to avoid having to sell Bitcoin to meet fixed obligations, at least while the reserve holds. [12]
Reactions are sharply divided:
- Supporters (including analysts at Benchmark and some crypto‑focused research firms) describe the reserve as a prudent buffer that reduces default risk and buys time until markets stabilize. [13]
- Critics argue it undercuts the “sell stock only to buy more Bitcoin” story that helped create Strategy’s cult following. Raising dollars to pay dividends — instead of to accumulate more BTC — looks, in the words of gold advocate Peter Schiff, like raising cash from new investors to pay old ones. [14]
An analysis on AInvest summed it up as both “lifeline and warning sign” for Bitcoin‑backed treasuries: a lifeline because it reduces forced‑sale risk in a downturn; a warning because the stock fell further after the announcement, underscoring just how nervous markets are about the model. [15]
Guidance Slashed: 2025 Earnings Now Depend on Bitcoin’s Range
Alongside the cash reserve, Strategy ripped up its earlier 2025 guidance, which had assumed Bitcoin at $150,000 by year‑end. That assumption now looks wildly optimistic given BTC’s slide from around $111,600 in late October to lows near $80,600 in November. [16]
The new framework pegs Bitcoin at a much lower year‑end range of $85,000–$110,000, and maps out wide corridors for financial results: [17]
- Operating income (loss):–$7.0 billion to +$9.5 billion
- Net income (loss):–$5.5 billion to +$6.3 billion
- Diluted EPS:–$17.00 to +$19.00 per share
Because accounting rules now mark Bitcoin at fair value through the income statement, Strategy’s earnings are extraordinarily sensitive to BTC’s price. A deeper Bitcoin drawdown would push results toward the loss end of those ranges; a rebound could swing earnings sharply positive. [18]
Several commentators, including 24/7 Wall St, highlighted how this new guidance compares to the previous forecast of around $24 billion in net income and $80 in EPS, underscoring just how dramatically the company has had to reset expectations after Bitcoin’s 30+% slide. [19]
The “Infinite Money Glitch” Meets Reality
For years, Strategy was held up in crypto circles as the “infinite money glitch” trade:
- Issue stock or convertible debt at a premium.
- Buy more Bitcoin.
- The buying pressure helps boost BTC.
- Strategy’s own stock re‑rates higher, enabling more accretive issuance.
Bloomberg’s latest opinion column argues that this feedback loop is now “glitching out” as Bitcoin trades below $90,000 and Strategy’s market value hovers only slightly above the value of its BTC stash, compressing the premium the strategy relies upon. [20]
The Financial Times similarly notes that after a twentyfold share price surge into 2024, Strategy’s stock has fallen roughly 70% from its peak and even begun to underperform Bitcoin, calling into question whether the equity vehicle still adds much value over simply holding BTC outright. [21]
Will Strategy Ever Sell Bitcoin? Management Draws a Line
The biggest psychological shift this week is not the reserve itself, but how candid management has become about potential Bitcoin sales.
In recent commentary and a widely shared podcast clip, CEO Phong Le laid out a clear decision rule: [22]
- Strategy would consider selling BTC only if:
- MSTR’s market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings (so‑called mNAV < 1), and
- The company cannot access additional debt or equity markets to fund preferred dividends and interest.
CryptoSlate estimates that, at current levels, Strategy is trading around 1.15× mNAV, meaning a further ~15% drop in the stock (with Bitcoin flat) could push that ratio below 1 and bring the “last resort” scenario closer. [23]
MarketWatch likewise reports that management has explicitly acknowledged this risk in investor communications, even as Le stresses that selling Bitcoin would be a tail‑risk contingency, not the base case. [24]
Not everyone is reassured:
- On‑chain analysts warn that a rule‑based BTC sale threshold could itself become a reflexive “death spiral” trigger if markets start front‑running it. [25]
- Peter Schiff has called the updated plan “the beginning of the end of MSTR,” framing the model as overly dependent on raising fresh capital to pay existing obligations. [26]
How Tight Is the MSTR–Bitcoin Link?
If Strategy’s goal was to be a Bitcoin leverage vehicle, the data suggests it has succeeded — maybe too well.
- MarketWatch calculates that since Bitcoin’s October 6 peak, BTC has fallen about 31%, while Strategy’s shares have plunged more than 50%, with a BTC–MSTR correlation near 0.97 — almost a one‑for‑one move, but with magnified swings. [27]
- Blockonomi reports that MSTR is down roughly 40% over the past month, even as the broader U.S. equity market remains relatively resilient. [28]
Commentators at MarketWatch and others have used this episode to argue that Strategy is “a trade, not an investment” — a high‑beta instrument suited to short‑term positioning on Bitcoin rather than a core long‑term holding for most portfolios. [29]
What Analysts and Commentators Are Saying Today
Street Ratings and Targets
Despite the sell‑off, Wall Street’s official stance remains surprisingly constructive:
- MarketBeat data shows Strategy still carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with one Strong Buy, thirteen Buys and four Holds, and an average price target around $485.80 — nearly 3× the current share price. [30]
- Benchmark’s Mark Palmer, one of the most vocal bulls, has reiterated his positive rating. He argues that fears of imminent distress are overstated and estimates that Bitcoin would need to plunge toward the low teens (around $12,700) before Strategy’s ability to service its debt and preferred obligations would be seriously threatened, even after the guidance cut. [31]
Fundamental and Credit View
- S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy a speculative‑grade “B–” issuer credit rating in October, citing the company’s heavy concentration in a volatile asset class and reliance on capital markets, but also acknowledging its large Bitcoin collateral base. [32]
- A widely read Seeking Alpha note described the new USD reserve as a major “cash pivot”, noting that while it shores up balance‑sheet confidence, it also raises the annual preferred dividend burden toward the mid‑hundreds of millions of dollars, increasing the importance of stable capital markets. [33]
Crypto and Retail Commentary
- CCN’s latest technical piece highlights a 35% one‑month crash, with key support around $154 and potential rebound zones projected near $225–$270 if buyers step back in. [34]
- Zacks Investment Research framed the move as a potential “fire sale” opportunity in a headline asking whether investors should buy the dip, reflecting how widely the dislocation is being noticed beyond crypto‑native circles. [35]
- A stream of crypto news outlets — from Blockonomi to Watcher.Guru — ties MSTR’s pain tightly to Bitcoin’s drop from over $126,000 to the mid‑$80,000s, as macro worries, ETF outflows, and rate‑cut uncertainty rattle speculative asset classes. [36]
Strategy’s Own Forecasts and External Price Scenarios
Company‑Defined Scenarios for 2025
Strategy’s updated internal framework essentially says:
- If Bitcoin finishes 2025 in the $85,000–$110,000 range, the company expects a wide band of outcomes from roughly –$5.5B to +$6.3B in net income and –$17 to +$19 in EPS, with BTC yield targets of 22–26% and Bitcoin dollar gains of $8.4–$12.8B — assuming it can continue raising capital. [37]
That final assumption is critical: as CryptoSlate and AInvest both point out, hitting those yield and gain targets requires more equity and preferred issuance, which becomes increasingly difficult if MSTR trades at or below the value of its Bitcoin (mNAV ≤ 1). [38]
External Technical and Macro Scenarios
Analytical pieces today sketch a range of possibilities:
- Bearish path: Technical breakdowns suggest that if selling persists, MSTR could probe supports in the mid‑$150s and potentially lower, especially if Bitcoin sees another leg down. CCN and TS2.tech both highlight that losing these areas could invite deeper drawdowns. [39]
- Bullish snapback: Because the stock is heavily oversold on many momentum indicators, a stabilization or rebound in Bitcoin could spark a sharp short‑covering rally toward the mid‑$200s, especially given very high volatility and short holding periods among traders in the name. TS2 Tech+2MarketWatch+2
- Macro wildcard: Several market notes stress that if central banks follow through with rate cuts in 2026 after a choppy end to 2025, that could restore risk appetite for high‑beta crypto proxies like MSTR — but the timing and depth of any such policy shift remain uncertain. [40]
Key Risks Investors Should Be Watching
For anyone following Strategy Inc stock on December 2, 2025, the main risk factors are unusually clear — and unusually concentrated:
- Bitcoin price and volatility
- Strategy lives and dies by BTC. A continued slide toward or below the company’s on‑chain cost basis (around the mid‑$70,000s) would put additional pressure on both earnings and investor confidence. [41]
- mNAV and market access
- If MSTR’s market cap falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings and markets are less willing to buy new equity or preferred issues, the “last resort” path of selling BTC to fund obligations comes closer into play. [42]
- Leverage and fixed obligations
- Between convertible debt and high‑coupon preferred instruments, Strategy has layered on multi‑billion‑dollar fixed payments. The new USD reserve buys time, but doesn’t eliminate long‑term refinancing and payout risk if Bitcoin stays weak. [43]
- Dilution and premium compression
- The equity strategy only works cleanly when MSTR trades at a healthy premium to its BTC holdings. As that premium shrinks, further stock issuance becomes more dilutive, challenging the very premise of the “leveraged spot ETF” narrative. [44]
- Regulatory and sentiment shocks
- Any surprise policy shift around Bitcoin, ETFs, or corporate BTC treasuries — or a sharp deterioration in crypto sentiment — would directly hit both the underlying asset and Strategy’s perceived viability. [45]
Bottom Line: A High‑Risk Bitcoin Leverage Play Under Stress
On December 2, 2025, Strategy Inc stands at a crossroads:
- It remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin and a cornerstone of the “Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets” story. [46]
- It has taken a significant defensive step by building a $1.44 billion USD reserve and openly mapping out stress‑test scenarios for its balance sheet. [47]
- Yet its stock price, premium, and narrative have all been hit hard by the latest Bitcoin sell‑off, with critics questioning whether the “infinite money glitch” has run its course and admirers arguing that the current drawdown may be exactly the kind of brutal winter that long‑term Bitcoin believers signed up for. [48]
For now, the consensus across research desks and crypto media is that Strategy Inc stock is still essentially a levered Bitcoin trade — just one with a growing web of preferred dividends, complex credit instruments and equity‑market dependencies layered on top.
Whether the new USD reserve ends up looking like smart risk management or an early warning flare will depend less on clever financial engineering and more on what Bitcoin does next.
Disclosure: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security or cryptocurrency, or a substitute for independent financial judgment.
References
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