Strategy Inc (Nasdaq: MSTR) — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy — is trading lower on Tuesday, December 23, as Bitcoin weakens and investors digest a notable shift in the firm’s playbook: after weeks of aggressive BTC accumulation, Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases last week while continuing to raise capital and expand a growing U.S. dollar reserve designed to cover dividends and interest. [1]
As of 14:52 UTC, MSTR traded at $160.52, down about 2.3% on the session, after ranging between $160.19 and $163.71. Over the same window, Bitcoin traded around $86,994, down about 3.4%, reinforcing the market’s long-running view of MSTR as a high-beta proxy for BTC — but now with rising attention on dilution, financing costs, and potential index-related headwinds. [2]
What’s moving Strategy stock on Dec. 23, 2025
Two forces are dominating the tape for Strategy today:
- Bitcoin is down, pulling on sentiment around BTC-linked equities and leveraged “Bitcoin treasury” strategies.
- Strategy confirmed it bought no Bitcoin during Dec. 15–21, even as it continued to raise money via equity issuance and expanded its USD reserve — a pivot that traders are interpreting in sharply different ways (risk-management upgrade vs. fading BTC-accumulation momentum). [3]
Barron’s described the pause as the end of a multi-week spree in early December and noted the stock’s fortunes remain closely tethered to Bitcoin’s trend. [4]
The headline filing: Strategy raised $747.8M — and bought zero BTC last week
The clearest “new” catalyst behind today’s debate is Strategy’s Form 8‑K dated December 22, 2025, covering activity in the week December 15–21.
Key takeaways from the filing:
- ATM equity sale: Strategy sold 4,535,000 shares of its Class A common stock (MSTR) for $747.8 million in net proceeds. [5]
- No Bitcoin purchases: The company reported no BTC acquired during the period. [6]
- Bitcoin holdings unchanged: Strategy held 671,268 BTC as of December 21, with an aggregate purchase price of $50.33 billion and an average purchase price of $74,972 per BTC (fees included). [7]
- USD reserve increased again: Strategy’s USD reserve balance rose to $2.19 billion as of December 21 (up from its initial $1.44B level announced earlier in December). [8]
That combination — raising hundreds of millions in fresh equity while temporarily not deploying it into BTC — is exactly what has split the market today.
Earlier this month: the buying spree that made the pause so noticeable
To understand why “no Bitcoin purchases” is such a big deal for MSTR’s narrative, it helps to zoom out just a couple of weeks. Strategy’s recent cadence has been unusually active — and well-documented through weekly disclosures.
Week of Dec. 1–7: ~$963M deployed into Bitcoin
In its December 8, 2025 8‑K, Strategy reported purchasing 10,624 BTC for an aggregate of $962.7 million, at an average price of $90,615 per BTC. After that week, holdings stood at 660,624 BTC. [9]
Week of Dec. 8–14: another ~$980M into Bitcoin
In its December 15, 2025 8‑K, Strategy reported purchasing 10,645 BTC for an aggregate of $980.3 million, at an average price of $92,098 per BTC. Holdings rose to 671,268 BTC — the same total reported today, confirming that the latest week was indeed a pause rather than a reduction. [10]
Funding mix: common shares + multiple preferred tickers
The same December 15 filing shows Strategy didn’t rely only on MSTR common stock; it also issued multiple preferred instruments (including STRF, STRK, STRD) during that week’s ATM activity, raising total net proceeds of about $989 million across the instruments listed. [11]
Why it matters now: when you stack early-December buying next to last week’s pause, it becomes easier to see why traders are asking whether Strategy is (a) simply pacing purchases and prioritizing liquidity, or (b) responding to a tougher BTC and capital-markets backdrop.
Why Strategy is building a USD reserve in the first place
Strategy’s own explanation for the cash build is not subtle: the company wants a dedicated liquidity buffer to service preferred dividends and interest on outstanding debt even if crypto markets turn against it.
In a December 1, 2025 press release, Strategy announced the establishment of a $1.44 billion USD Reserve funded with common-stock issuance. Management said the intent was to hold enough cash to cover at least 12 months of these payments, with an eventual goal of 24 months or more, while retaining discretion to adjust the reserve based on market conditions. [12]
Last week’s 8‑K shows that reserve has already grown to $2.19 billion as of Dec. 21. [13]
Investor interpretation: This reserve can be read as an attempt to reduce “forced selling” risk (selling BTC into weakness to meet obligations). But it also raises a sharper question: if Strategy issues equity and holds cash rather than buying BTC, does the market continue to value MSTR at a premium as a BTC-leverage vehicle?
Strategy’s own 2025 forecast: earnings swing with year-end Bitcoin price
Forecasting Strategy’s financial results has become inseparable from forecasting Bitcoin — and Strategy made that link explicit.
On December 1, the company updated its FY2025 guidance framework to a Bitcoin year-end price range of $85,000 to $110,000. Under that BTC range, Strategy provided extraordinarily wide target ranges for:
- Operating income (loss): approximately $(7.0)B to $9.5B
- Net income (loss): approximately $(5.5)B to $6.3B
- Diluted EPS: approximately $(17.0) to $19.0 [14]
Strategy also highlighted that it has adopted fair-value accounting for crypto assets, meaning changes in BTC’s market price can flow directly through earnings, amplifying volatility in reported results even if the underlying software business is relatively steady. [15]
Bottom line: for investors who trade MSTR around earnings, Strategy is effectively saying: “BTC is the earnings model.”
A growing structural risk: could index providers push Strategy out?
Beyond Bitcoin’s day-to-day price action, a separate storyline is increasingly relevant for longer-horizon investors: index eligibility.
Reuters reported that MSCI has been consulting on whether to exclude companies whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets from its global equity indexes — on the argument that such firms resemble investment funds more than operating companies. A decision was expected by January 15, 2026, and analysts cited by Reuters estimated Strategy could face billions of dollars in potential outflows if passive funds are forced to reduce exposure. [16]
This matters because Strategy’s model relies heavily on continued access to equity markets; any shock to passive demand can raise the cost of capital, complicating the flywheel of “issue stock → buy BTC → (hope) premium persists.” [17]
Analyst forecasts for MSTR: big upside targets — and big disagreement
Wall Street’s published price targets for Strategy remain unusually wide, reflecting how hard it is to value a company whose identity increasingly blends:
- a software/analytics business,
- a massive BTC balance sheet, and
- an active capital-raising engine.
As of late December:
- Investing.com’s consensus snapshot shows an average target near $489.6, with a high estimate of $705 and a low estimate of $229, and a “Strong Buy” skew in recommendations. [18]
- TradingView’s aggregated analyst target view is similar, showing a target around $486.3 with the same $705 high / $229 low range. [19]
At the same time, other trackers show meaningfully different averages and even lower “floor” targets, underscoring that the dataset you use (and how recently targets were updated) can dramatically change the apparent consensus. [20]
How to read these forecasts (without over-trusting them): in practice, many MSTR targets are shorthand for assumptions about:
- where Bitcoin trades in 6–18 months,
- whether Strategy can maintain a premium over the market value of its BTC holdings, and
- whether dilution and financing costs remain manageable.
Technical and trading outlook: support zones, volatility, and the “BTC proxy” effect
Technical analysts continue to frame Strategy as a momentum-heavy, BTC-correlated equity with clear “risk-on/risk-off” behavior.
FXLeaders highlighted $167 as a near-term support area and described Strategy’s recent shift away from nonstop BTC buying toward reserve-building as a sign of a more defensive posture amid volatile crypto conditions. [21]
Options markets also imply meaningful short-dated movement in MSTR, consistent with its history of sharp swings. One options-analytics snapshot pegged the expected move into late December at roughly ±$10 over a one-week horizon (about mid-single-digit percentage terms around recent prices). [22]
Translation for investors: even when there’s no headline, MSTR can move like a leveraged instrument on Bitcoin — which is exactly why the cash-reserve discussion matters: the company is trying to reduce the chance that leverage becomes fragile.
What investors should watch next
Here are the catalysts that could define Strategy stock into year-end and early 2026:
- Bitcoin’s level and volatility: With BTC down on the day, MSTR’s near-term direction often follows.
- The next weekly BTC/ATM update: Strategy’s disclosures have become a recurring market event because they reveal whether fresh equity becomes BTC — or stays cash. [23]
- USD reserve policy: Investors will watch whether Strategy continues building the USD reserve beyond the current $2.19B — and whether that slows BTC accumulation. [24]
- Index inclusion decisions: The MSCI consultation timeline (decision by Jan. 15, 2026, per Reuters) is a potential step-function catalyst for passive flows. [25]
- Dilution vs. “Bitcoin-per-share” debate: Commentary today is increasingly focused on whether ongoing issuance enhances shareholder BTC exposure or erodes it — a key point raised in today’s market coverage. [26]
The takeaway on Dec. 23: a bitcoin-levered stock, now with a liquidity-first twist
Strategy Inc’s transformation into a Bitcoin treasury heavyweight is now complete — even down to the corporate identity shift from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc while keeping the same core tickers (including MSTR). [27]
But today’s price action reflects a market recalibrating to a new nuance: Strategy is still a Bitcoin-first story, yet it is also acting more like a financial institution managing duration, dividend obligations, and potential “crypto winter” scenarios with a growing cash buffer. [28]
For bulls, the pause in buying can look like discipline: build liquidity, reduce forced-sale risk, and preserve optionality for better BTC entry points. For skeptics, it raises an uncomfortable question: if the company is issuing equity but not immediately translating that into incremental BTC, how much premium should a “Bitcoin treasury stock” command — especially with index eligibility under scrutiny? [29]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.strategy.com, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.strategy.com, 15. www.strategy.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.fxleaders.com, 22. optioncharts.io, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investors.com, 27. www.strategy.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.reuters.com
