NEW YORK — Friday, December 26, 2025 (1:26 p.m. ET).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is navigating a quiet “bridge” session between the Christmas holiday and the final stretch of the year, with trading volumes widely expected to remain light—an environment that can amplify moves in either direction.
Around late morning, the Dow dipped 65 points (‑0.13%) to 48,666, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat and the Nasdaq edged slightly higher. [1] With markets still sitting close to all-time highs and 2025 on track to close with double-digit gains across major indexes, investors are balancing bullish momentum against a familiar year-end reality: thin liquidity, portfolio rebalancing, and a growing list of 2026 crosscurrents. [2]
Dow Jones snapshot: why the DJIA is wobbling, not breaking
This late-December tape has a distinct feel: fewer “must-trade” catalysts, fewer institutional orders, and more sensitivity to headlines.
- Holiday-thinned participation: Both newswire coverage and brokerage commentary have emphasized the expectation for lighter activity as investors return from Christmas. [3]
- Near-peak positioning: Reuters noted the Dow was within roughly 0.5% of its December 12 peak, reinforcing how little it would take—up or down—to create attention-grabbing prints. [4]
- Year-end “prove it” mindset: Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, framed 2026 as a “prove-it” year where companies need to demonstrate real productivity and margin gains from AI and other investments. [5]
In other words, the Dow isn’t selling off so much as “checking” the rally—a common pattern when markets are priced for good news and the calendar is running out.
Record highs are still the backdrop: where the Dow came from this week
The Dow entered this session with strong momentum. In the holiday-shortened December 24 session, U.S. stocks finished at record levels, with the Dow rising 0.60% to 48,731.16, alongside a record-close S&P 500. [6]
That matters because it sets the psychological frame for today’s trading:
- After record highs, many investors become quicker to trim risk on any hint of uncertainty.
- At the same time, record closes can pull in momentum and benchmark buyers—especially if the market is aiming for headline milestones into year-end. [7]
What’s moving the Dow Jones today: AI headlines, rates, and rotation
Even when the Dow is the headline, it’s rarely “just the Dow.” The DJIA is highly sensitive to a mix of macro forces (rates, growth expectations) and the day’s leadership themes (AI, cyclicals, defensives).
1) AI is back in focus—again
Reuters described renewed interest in AI-related names after a prior pullback tied to valuation and capex concerns. [8]
Schwab’s Joe Mazzola also pointed to chip and AI-related strength around the open, including fresh attention on Nvidia-Groq developments. [9]
2) The Fed remains the macro hinge into year-end
Investors are laser-focused on how far and how fast the Federal Reserve may cut in 2026.
- Reuters’ “Week Ahead” report emphasized that investors are watching for more clarity in upcoming Fed minutes, and highlighted that the Fed cut rates by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025 to a 3.50%–3.75% target range. [10]
- Schwab flagged Fed minutes as the key standout on a sparse calendar next week. [11]
3) Rotation is widening beyond megacap tech
One of the more important late-2025 developments is that leadership hasn’t been exclusively tech. Reuters reported investors have been rotating into areas like financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps, suggesting a bid for “more moderately valued” parts of the market. [12]
This rotation can be especially relevant for the Dow, which is heavily exposed to economically sensitive and “old economy” bellwethers relative to the Nasdaq.
How the Dow Jones index works—and why that matters on quiet days
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a 30-stock, price-weighted index—meaning higher-priced stocks have more influence on daily point moves than lower-priced ones, regardless of market capitalization. [13]
Two practical implications for today’s market:
- A small percentage move in a high-priced Dow component can dominate the day’s Dow points, even if the broader market is calm.
- During thin liquidity, a handful of large orders in a few influential Dow names can make the DJIA look more dramatic than the broader tape.
For investors comparing the Dow to the S&P 500 or Nasdaq on any given day, this “price-weighted” structure is a big reason why the DJIA can diverge.
Santa Claus rally watch: seasonal strength meets thin liquidity
With Christmas behind the market, investors are also watching whether the so-called “Santa Claus rally” shows up.
The classic definition: the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. [14]
Two timely angles are driving attention this year:
- Seasonality supports optimism: MarketWatch, citing Bespoke Investment Group, reported that December 26 has historically been one of the most consistently positive days for the S&P 500 when markets are open. [15]
- But the setup can be noisy: Schwab warned that low volume can produce sharper swings and that the market may need to “prove itself” when full participation returns. [16]
Seasonal tendencies can be informative, but in real time, they don’t override rates, earnings, or policy—and they’re not guarantees.
The next big catalysts: what investors should watch before the next session
Because the market is open as of this writing in New York, the “next session” for many readers will be Monday, when investors return from the weekend and the year-end countdown gets louder.
Confirmed trading calendar and holiday mechanics
- Major U.S. exchanges remained open as scheduled for December 26 (regular full session), even after a federal-closure order made headlines earlier this month. [17]
- The NYSE’s official calendar notes early closes around Christmas Eve, but December 26 is not an early-close day. [18]
- Markets are closed for New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026). [19]
High-impact market events next week (from Schwab’s calendar)
Schwab highlighted a light slate, with a few notable dates:
- Dec. 29: Pending U.S. home sales
- Dec. 30:FOMC minutes
- Dec. 31: EIA crude oil inventories
- Jan. 2: Construction spending [20]
Practical “thin market” considerations for Dow investors
Going into the next session, investors commonly watch for:
- Year-end rebalancing and “window dressing” (fund managers adjusting exposures before reporting dates)
- Limit-order discipline (spreads can widen in lighter volume)
- Headline sensitivity (policy and Fed-related signals can move indexes quickly)
Forecasts and outlook: what Wall Street expects for 2026 (and what could go wrong)
The DJIA doesn’t trade in isolation; it tends to track the broader U.S. equity cycle. The most useful “Dow outlook” signals are therefore coming from 2026 forecasts for earnings, rates, and risk appetite.
The bullish baseline: gains continue, but volatility rises
A Reuters poll summarized strategist expectations that the benchmark index (S&P 500) could rise nearly 12% to about 7,490 by end-2026, with many strategists pointing to ongoing AI momentum and prospective Fed cuts—while warning that inflation, valuations, and tariff tensions could still trigger corrections. [21]
Goldman Sachs research framed a similar “constructive but not carefree” message: sturdy growth and “non-recessionary Fed cuts” could support equities, but hot valuations may increase volatility. [22]
The cautious view: “unstable” macro and concentration risk
Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon described the backdrop less as “uncertain” and more as “unstable,” expecting continued churn and rotation even if the market continues climbing. [23]
And GMO’s Ben Inker warned 2026 could bring single-digit losses for the S&P 500, arguing that AI-related concentration and overvaluation risks could lead to a rotation where parts of the market fall even if other areas hold up. [24]
What this means for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Because the Dow is concentrated (30 stocks) and price-weighted, the DJIA can be especially sensitive if:
- a handful of high-priced components stumble, or
- leadership narrows and investors crowd into (or out of) a specific theme (AI, cyclicals, defensives).
That’s why many 2026 outlooks—bullish or cautious—keep returning to the same bottom line: earnings delivery matters more once valuations are elevated. [25]
If you’re reading this after hours: what to know before the next open
If you’re checking the Dow outside regular hours, a few basics help keep the signal clean:
- Separate index headlines from tradable proxies. Overnight moves are often reflected first in futures and ETFs rather than the index print itself.
- Expect gap risk in thin weeks. Light liquidity can translate to bigger opening gaps—up or down—especially around Fed headlines. [26]
- Know the calendar. With Fed minutes (Dec. 30) standing out and New Year’s Day closure approaching, catalysts are clustered. [27]
Bottom line
As of early afternoon in New York on Dec. 26, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is essentially marking time near record territory in a session shaped more by calendar effects than by fresh fundamentals. [28]
The next real tests for the Dow won’t come from holiday chatter—they’ll come from what investors learn (and choose to believe) about Fed policy, earnings power, and whether 2026 is a continuation of the bull run… or the “prove-it” year strategists are warning about. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.schwab.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.schwab.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.spglobal.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.schwab.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.nyse.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.schwab.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.goldmansachs.com, 23. www.schwab.com, 24. www.businessinsider.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.schwab.com, 27. www.schwab.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
