Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock Update: Bitcoin Treasury Moves, Index Risks, and Analyst Targets as Wall Street Heads Into the Next Session

New York — Friday, December 26, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET.

Strategy Inc (Nasdaq: MSTR) ended the post‑Christmas trading day in a market that’s still hovering near record highs—but with investors increasingly focused on what comes next for “bitcoin treasury” stocks: index eligibility, funding costs, and whether the company’s evolving capital‑markets playbook can keep supporting its core bitcoin accumulation thesis. ^[1]

Below is what matters right now—the latest price action, the most consequential headlines, what analysts are forecasting, and what investors should be watching before the next regular session.

MSTR stock price today: where Strategy shares stand after the close

As of late Friday trading, Strategy shares were around $158.81 with an intraday range of roughly $154 to $161.

For the regular session (4:00 p.m. ET close), data from historical pricing shows the stock closing around $158.26, after trading between $154.12 and $159.91 on the day. ^[2]

Why this matters: At 5:00 p.m. ET, the regular NYSE/Nasdaq session is over, but after‑hours trading is still active—and for MSTR, weekend and overnight moves can be especially important because bitcoin trades 24/7 while equities do not.

The broader market backdrop: quiet post‑holiday session, still near record highs

Friday’s tone was muted. Reuters described U.S. indexes finishing nearly unchanged and close to all‑time highs, as investors looked for continuation of the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window. ^[3]

Reuters pegged the day’s moves as tiny declines (Dow -0.04%, S&P 500 -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.09%). ^[4]
Investopedia similarly noted a subdued day but a positive holiday‑shortened week overall, with bitcoin trading around the high‑$80,000s. ^[5]

Bitcoin is the key macro input for MSTR. At the time of writing, bitcoin was around $87,407.

What Strategy is today: MicroStrategy’s rebrand is now legal reality

A critical point for readers searching “Strategy Inc stock” is that this is the company formerly known as MicroStrategy.

Strategy announced it changed its legal name from MicroStrategy Incorporated to “Strategy Inc” effective August 11, 2025, with the main common stock ticker remaining MSTR (and several preferred tickers continuing to trade). ^[6]

The company’s investor‑relations messaging now explicitly frames Strategy as a “Bitcoin Treasury Company” that uses operating cash flows plus equity/debt financing to accumulate bitcoin. ^[7]

The headline driver: Strategy’s bitcoin holdings and the “pause” that has the market talking

Current holdings: 671,268 BTC

Strategy’s own disclosure dashboard shows it holding ₿671,268 with an average acquisition cost of about $74,972 per bitcoin (aggregate cost roughly $50.326 billion). ^[8]

A notable near‑term shift: no bitcoin purchases in the most recent disclosed week

In a Form 8‑K disclosure, Strategy reported:

No bitcoin purchases during December 15–21, 2025
Holdings remained 671,268 BTC as of December 21, 2025 ^[9]

That “pause” became a central narrative in financial media this week, because Strategy’s stock often trades as a high‑beta proxy for bitcoin—so investors watch the cadence of purchases, funding, and dilution very closely. ^[10]

How the pause connects to dilution and liquidity: stock sales + a growing USD reserve

Equity issuance: ~$747.8 million raised via stock sales in a week

The same SEC filing shows Strategy sold 4,535,000 shares of its Class A common stock (MSTR) during the period, generating $747.8 million in net proceeds. ^[11]

The USD reserve: now ~$2.19 billion (as of Dec. 21)

Strategy also disclosed that its USD reserve—created to support preferred dividends and debt interest—grew from an initial $1.44 billion to $2.19 billion as of December 21, 2025. ^[12]

This is one of the most important near‑term signals for investors: Strategy is emphasizing balance‑sheet resilience and payment capacity, not only maximum immediate bitcoin accumulation. Reuters reported this reserve strategy was intended to help navigate market volatility, quoting both the company and market analysts reacting to the move. ^[13]

“Goes beyond bitcoin exposure”: Saylor’s new pitch—and the ETF competition problem

Investopedia reports Michael Saylor (executive chairman and co‑founder) is reframing Strategy as a broader “capital markets platform,” arguing that what Strategy is building is not simply replicable via spot bitcoin ETFs. ^[14]

That messaging shift is happening against a real competitive backdrop: investors now have many ways to access bitcoin exposure (including large spot ETFs), which can reduce the “uniqueness premium” Strategy historically captured as a public‑market bitcoin proxy. ^[15]

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is quoted describing how the landscape has changed, while still highlighting Strategy’s massive bitcoin position and how the new reserve policy may align with supporting dividends tied to preferred securities. ^[16]

Preferred shares and capital structure: why it matters even if you only own MSTR

Strategy has expanded its security stack beyond common stock—part of the “capital markets platform” story.

For example, STRK (Strategy’s convertible perpetual preferred) is marketed as offering 8% annual dividends, payable quarterly, and convertible into MSTR shares at a defined ratio. ^[17]

Strategy also announced the pricing of STRE, a 10.00% Series A perpetual preferred offering priced in euros, underscoring the company’s approach of creating multiple instruments to finance its treasury strategy. ^[18]

Why common shareholders care: the mix of equity issuance, preferred dividends, and debt service shapes dilution, required cashflows, and how Strategy can (or cannot) keep adding bitcoin through market cycles.

Index inclusion risk: MSCI decision ahead could be a major catalyst (or headwind)

One of the most market‑sensitive headlines for Strategy right now is index eligibility.

Reuters reports MSCI is considering excluding companies where digital asset holdings represent 50% or more of total assets, arguing they may resemble investment funds. MSCI is expected to announce a decision by January 15 after a public consultation process. ^[19]

In the same Reuters reporting:

Analysts suggested Strategy could be dropped from MSCI (and possibly other major indexes), potentially impacting demand for shares. ^[20]
Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at Jefferies, warned the conversation is broader than MSCI alone and that other index providers may follow. ^[21]

This is not theoretical: passive funds and index‑tracking strategies can represent a meaningful slice of equity demand, and forced rebalancing can amplify volatility—especially in a name already sensitive to bitcoin’s swings.

Nasdaq 100 status: Strategy “clung to its place,” but scrutiny remains

There is also an important counterpoint: Reuters reports Strategy remained in the Nasdaq 100 during the December reshuffle, even as some market watchers questioned whether its model looks more like an investment fund than an operating business. ^[22]

Reuters added that MSCI was due to decide in January whether to exclude Strategy and similar companies, keeping index classification as a running theme into year‑end and early 2026. ^[23]

Earnings outlook and volatility: what changed in December

On December 1, Reuters reported Strategy cut its 2025 earnings forecast, citing bitcoin weakness, and set out the dividend/interest support reserve. The report included pointed commentary from market professionals:

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, described bitcoin’s slump as a “disaster” for Strategy shares in that period. ^[24]
Reuters also quoted Mark Palmer (Benchmark) on why the USD reserve could address investor questions around dividend payments. ^[25]

In other words: bitcoin price action is still the dominant variable, but investors have been increasingly focused on how Strategy funds itself and manages downside scenarios.

Analyst forecasts: what Wall Street models say (and why the range is so wide)

Forecasting Strategy is difficult because you’re forecasting a hybrid of:

a software/analytics business,
a bitcoin treasury strategy, and
an evolving capital‑markets issuance machine.

Consensus target snapshot

A Nasdaq.com article citing aggregated analyst targets reported (as of Dec. 21, 2025):

Average 1‑year price target:$513.66
Low / High range:$328.25 to $740.25 ^[26]

The same piece also listed projections for annual revenue and non‑GAAP EPS (as presented via the data source it referenced). ^[27]

What at least one major bank has said publicly

Investopedia reported that Citi analyst Peter Christiansen reiterated a buy stance in a November note and referenced a $485 price target (implying very large upside from where shares have been trading recently). ^[28]

How to interpret this: the dispersion in targets is a feature, not a bug. Models can swing wildly based on assumptions about bitcoin’s path, Strategy’s ability to issue at favorable terms, and whether the stock trades at a premium (or discount) to its underlying bitcoin exposure.

A risk investors keep underestimating: mNAV, forced selling fears, and “proxy” products blowing up

Reuters highlighted another critical topic: investors’ focus on Strategy’s mNAV—enterprise value relative to bitcoin holdings. Reuters reported commentary indicating the company might consider selling bitcoin if that ratio drops below 1, and noted that Reuters calculations (based on LSEG data) had the ratio around ~1.1 at that time. ^[29]

The same Reuters report also emphasized how volatility is bleeding into “proxy” products:

Leveraged ETFs tied to Strategy suffered steep losses in 2025, reflecting how amplified exposure can destroy capital quickly when the underlying turns. ^[30]

For investors in common stock, this matters because leverage and forced liquidations in adjacent products can worsen price moves during drawdowns.

What investors should know before the next regular session

Because it’s after 4:00 p.m. ET on Friday, the next key decision point for many equity investors is Monday’s open (Dec. 29, 2025)—but for Strategy, the weekend is not “quiet time.”

1) Bitcoin trades all weekend; MSTR does not

Bitcoin’s price can move sharply Saturday and Sunday, and MSTR often gaps at Monday’s open to reflect that new information. At the time of writing, bitcoin is around the high‑$80,000s. ^[31]

2) Watch Strategy’s disclosure channels for purchases, funding, and reserve changes

Strategy explicitly points investors to its website dashboard as a disclosure channel for information including bitcoin purchases and holdings. ^[32]

If you’re trading or investing around the next session, this is the high‑signal checklist:

Any new bitcoin purchase update (or continued pause)
Any change in ATM issuance pace
Any movement in the USD reserve balance ^[33]

3) Index headlines can create non‑fundamental volatility

The MSCI consultation decision due by January 15 remains a major near‑term catalyst risk, particularly for passive‑flow dynamics. ^[34]

4) Year‑end liquidity can amplify swings

Reuters characterized Friday as light‑volume trading, with a market still looking at the “Santa Claus rally” window through early January. Thin liquidity + a high‑beta stock can mean exaggerated moves. ^[35]

5) Remember next week’s holiday schedule

Investopedia noted next week is holiday‑shortened, with markets closed for New Year’s Day and altered bond trading hours—conditions that can influence liquidity and volatility into early 2026. ^[36]

Bottom line

Strategy (MSTR) remains one of the market’s most consequential—and controversial—ways to express a view on bitcoin through public equities. Right now, investors are weighing two competing narratives:

Bull case: massive bitcoin holdings, continued financial engineering capacity, and a broadened “capital markets platform” pitch that could sustain institutional demand. ^[37]
Bear case: dilution and funding costs, a declining “uniqueness premium” versus bitcoin ETFs, and growing index‑eligibility scrutiny that could reduce structural demand for the shares. ^[38]

With the regular session closed heading into the weekend, the most practical stance for investors is preparedness: monitor bitcoin’s weekend tape, watch for official Strategy disclosures, and be alert to index‑provider headlines—because any of these can reset the stock’s trading range before Monday’s opening bell.

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