Updated: December 12, 2025
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy — ended the week at the center of a familiar tug-of-war: index eligibility, Bitcoin swings, and the market’s tolerance for dilution-funded crypto accumulation.
By Friday’s close, MSTR traded around $176.45 while Bitcoin hovered near $90,000, reinforcing the stock’s core identity as a high-beta, Bitcoin-linked equity that can move faster (and farther) than the underlying coin.
This week’s key development: Strategy kept its Nasdaq-100 seat after the annual index reconstitution, removing (for now) the risk of large forced selling from Nasdaq-100 trackers. At the same time, another index fight is heating up: MSCI is reviewing whether to exclude “digital asset treasury” companies from key benchmarks — a decision with potentially meaningful passive-flow consequences for MSTR into early 2026. [1]
Below is what moved Strategy stock this week, what analysts are forecasting, and the catalysts that could shape MSTR’s next move in the week ahead.
What moved Strategy (MSTR) stock this week
1) Nasdaq-100 decision: the “forced flows” risk faded — for now
Going into Friday, Wall Street chatter centered on whether Strategy’s business model still “fit” a tech-heavy benchmark, given how much of its narrative and financial profile is tied to Bitcoin. Reuters highlighted concerns that an exclusion could have triggered meaningful passive outflows, with some estimates placing potential forced selling in the billions if MSTR were removed from major index products. [2]
After the reconstitution, Strategy remained in the Nasdaq-100, easing a near-term overhang and keeping the company inside one of the most widely tracked growth benchmarks. [3]
2) MSCI’s proposal: the next index catalyst shifted into focus
While Nasdaq-100 inclusion was resolved for now, attention quickly pivoted to MSCI, which is considering whether to treat companies with very large digital asset exposure as something closer to a fund-like vehicle than an operating company.
MSCI’s consultation states it will remain open until Dec. 31, 2025, with final conclusions expected by Jan. 15, 2026, and potential implementation tied to the February 2026 Index Review. [4]
Strategy has publicly pushed back, calling the approach discriminatory and arguing digital-asset treasury companies are still operating businesses. [5]
3) Strategy bought nearly $1B of Bitcoin again — and filed it
A major reason MSTR remains a headline machine is that Strategy continues to buy Bitcoin aggressively, often funding purchases through equity issuance programs.
In an SEC filing covering Dec. 1–Dec. 7, the company disclosed it acquired 10,624 BTC for about $962.7 million at an average price near $90,615 per coin, bringing total holdings to 660,624 BTC (aggregate purchase price about $49.35 billion, average cost $74,696). [6]
At current spot levels near $90,094, that stash implies a market value of roughly $59.5 billion (and a sizable unrealized gain versus aggregate cost), though investors must also weigh the company’s debt, preferred stock, and ongoing financing obligations when thinking about equity value. [7]
4) Liquidity matters again: the $1.44B “USD Reserve”
This is the other big story underpinning sentiment into year-end: Strategy is working to reassure markets it can keep its funding machine running even if Bitcoin stays volatile.
On Dec. 1, Strategy announced it established a $1.44 billion USD reserve aimed at supporting dividend payments on preferred stock and interest on outstanding indebtedness, funded through common-stock sales under its at-the-market program. [8]
In the same update, Strategy also reframed FY2025 guidance around a lower assumed year-end Bitcoin price range ($85,000 to $110,000) and provided wide-ranging potential outcomes for operating income and net income because those results are highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s mark-to-market moves. [9]
The latest Strategy (MSTR) headlines investors watched in the last few days
Here are the key items driving coverage and trading interest:
- Dec. 12 (after market close): Strategy remained in the Nasdaq-100 after the annual reconstitution; changes take effect Dec. 22. [10]
- Dec. 10: Strategy filed/published a formal response pushing back on MSCI’s proposed index exclusion for digital-asset treasury companies. [11]
- Dec. 8: Strategy disclosed the 10,624 BTC purchase (Dec. 1–7) via SEC filing. [12]
- Dec. 1: Strategy announced the $1.44B USD reserve and updated FY2025 guidance and Bitcoin KPI targets. [13]
- Macro backdrop (Dec. 10): The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to a 3.50%–3.75% target range, a policy move that can influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment into year-end. [14]
Strategy’s “Bitcoin balance sheet” in plain English: the numbers that matter
Strategy is not just “a company that owns Bitcoin.” It’s a capital-markets engine designed to accumulate Bitcoin, typically by issuing a mix of common shares, preferred shares, and convertible debt, then using proceeds to buy BTC.
As of Dec. 7, 2025, Strategy reported: [15]
- Bitcoin held: 660,624 BTC
- Aggregate purchase price: ~$49.35B
- Average cost: ~$74,696 per BTC
- Latest purchase window: Dec. 1–Dec. 7 (10,624 BTC; ~$962.7M)
At Bitcoin’s current price near $90,094, those holdings imply a BTC market value around $59.5B. [16]
Why the stock can swing even more than Bitcoin:
- If Bitcoin rises, Strategy’s equity can benefit from (1) BTC appreciation and (2) any expansion in the market’s willingness to pay a premium for Strategy’s “BTC exposure plus optionality.”
- If Bitcoin falls, the pressure is typically magnified by (1) premium compression, (2) dilution concerns if the company continues to issue stock, and (3) market scrutiny of how comfortably Strategy can service preferred dividends and debt interest.
That last point is a big reason the USD Reserve announcement mattered: it was a direct response to the market’s “what happens in a Bitcoin drawdown?” question. [17]
The Nasdaq-100 angle: why it mattered more than a headline
Index membership can act like invisible plumbing for liquidity.
Nasdaq’s annual reconstitution becomes effective prior to market open on Dec. 22, 2025, and the exchange notes the process is timed around December’s “quadruple witch” period — often associated with higher trading volumes and portfolio repositioning. [18]
For Strategy, the stakes were simple:
- Staying in supports baseline demand from benchmark-tracking funds and reduces the probability of large forced selling events.
- Falling out could have created a mechanical selling wave, potentially tightening the company’s ability to finance BTC purchases via equity at attractive terms. [19]
This week delivered the more favorable outcome: Strategy stayed. [20]
The MSCI decision: a slower-moving catalyst with real flow impact potential
Unlike Nasdaq-100 reconstitution (now settled), the MSCI question is still open.
MSCI’s consultation document states:
- Consultation open until Dec. 31, 2025
- Final conclusions by Jan. 15, 2026
- Possible implementation in February 2026 Index Review [21]
Strategy’s argument, in essence:
- Digital asset treasury companies are operating companies, not passive funds.
- A digital-asset-specific 50% threshold is “arbitrary” and difficult to apply cleanly.
- Indexing should remain neutral rather than reflecting policy preferences. [22]
For investors, the immediate implication is not a balance-sheet change — it’s a passive demand / eligibility question that can affect how reliably MSTR is held across broad global equity allocations.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish consensus, huge disagreement
Wall Street remains unusually polarized on MSTR because analysts are often implicitly underwriting a Bitcoin trajectory and the sustainability of Strategy’s financing model.
Here’s the headline takeaway: many services tracking analyst targets show strong-buy-like consensus with an average target around the high-$400s, but the range is extremely wide (high targets in the $700 area and low targets that collapse toward “Bitcoin proxy breaks” scenarios). [23]
Recent commentary and revisions underline how quickly targets can move:
- Barron’s reported Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target sharply (while maintaining an Overweight stance), reflecting the sensitivity to Bitcoin drawdowns and valuation multiples. [24]
- Other analysts have reiterated higher targets (e.g., targets around $500 have been cited in recent coverage), again reflecting a belief that MSTR can regain (or expand) its valuation premium if Bitcoin rebounds. [25]
One core debate repeated across coverage:
- Bulls argue Strategy offers levered Bitcoin exposure plus capital-markets “optionality.”
- Bears argue the premium can compress because investors can get simpler exposure via ETFs — and because ongoing issuance can dilute shareholders. [26]
A reality check on “forecasting” MSTR: what actually drives next-week price action
No single metric predicts MSTR week-to-week. But in practice, traders tend to watch five inputs:
- Bitcoin direction and volatility
MSTR tends to amplify BTC moves. This week, BTC near $90k kept the focus on whether crypto is stabilizing after the pullback from October highs. [27] - Premium/discount to perceived “Bitcoin NAV”
Some commentary has highlighted that MSTR’s premium to its Bitcoin holdings has compressed versus earlier peaks, which can reduce the stock’s “reflexive” fundraising advantage. [28] - Financing cadence (ATM issuance and preferred structures)
The Dec. 8 SEC filing explicitly ties the latest BTC purchase to proceeds from selling common and preferred shares via at-the-market programs. [29] - Index eligibility headlines
Nasdaq-100 is resolved short term; MSCI remains the looming headline risk into January. [30] - Macro risk sentiment
The Fed’s Dec. 10 decision lowered rates to a 3.50%–3.75% range, and the market is now parsing the path forward — an important backdrop for speculative assets and levered proxies like MSTR. [31]
Week ahead: what to watch for Strategy (MSTR) from Dec. 15–19, 2025
1) A data-heavy U.S. macro calendar could move Bitcoin — and MSTR with it
Economic releases and Fed speaker calendars matter because crypto and high-beta tech often react to shifts in rate expectations and risk appetite.
For the week of Dec. 15, calendars flag major items including inflation data (CPI), retail sales, and other closely watched reports. [32]
2) Post-Fed positioning after the Dec. 10 rate cut
With the Fed cutting by 25 bps this week, markets will be sensitive to follow-on commentary and data that either validates further easing or revives inflation concerns. That risk-on/risk-off swing can be decisive for MSTR’s short-term momentum. [33]
3) Nasdaq-100 reconstitution mechanics into the Dec. 22 effective date
Although Strategy stayed in, broader Nasdaq-100 changes go into effect before market open Dec. 22, and Nasdaq notes the annual reshuffle is timed around December’s high-volume expiration period. Investors often monitor liquidity conditions and large-cap flow dynamics during this window. [34]
4) Any fresh MSCI commentary or consultation-related updates
The MSCI consultation remains open through Dec. 31, so markets may react to additional public commentary, media coverage, or feedback from major stakeholders. The final decision timeline (by Jan. 15, 2026) keeps the issue squarely in the near-term catalyst stack. [35]
5) The next “Bitcoin purchases” update from Strategy
Strategy has been regularly disclosing BTC purchase activity and related ATM issuance in SEC filings and on its investor materials. With the company’s cadence, investors will be watching for the next update that signals whether buying continued after Dec. 7 (and at what pace). [36]
Bottom line: what “matters most” for MSTR right now
Strategy stock finished this week with one key overhang removed (Nasdaq-100 retention) and one still looming (MSCI’s potential digital-asset treasury exclusion). [37]
In between those two index stories sits the real driver: Bitcoin — plus the market’s confidence that Strategy can keep funding purchases without triggering a negative spiral of dilution concerns and premium compression.
For the week ahead, the practical checklist is straightforward:
- Does BTC stabilize or break around current levels?
- Does MSTR’s volatility calm, or does leverage reassert itself?
- Do macro data and post-Fed expectations support risk assets? [38]
- And does the market treat MSCI’s review as “noise” — or a real passive-flow threat? [39]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. app2.msci.com, 5. www.strategy.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.strategy.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.coindesk.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.strategy.com, 14. www.federalreserve.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.ft.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. app2.msci.com, 22. www.strategy.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.investors.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.investors.com, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.federalreserve.gov, 32. tradingeconomics.com, 33. www.federalreserve.gov, 34. www.globenewswire.com, 35. app2.msci.com, 36. www.sec.gov, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. tradingeconomics.com, 39. app2.msci.com
