NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 10:06 a.m. ET — Market closed
Strategy Inc (Nasdaq: MSTR) stock is heading into the weekend with U.S. equities markets shut, but the main driver of its narrative—Bitcoin—still trading around the clock. MSTR ended Friday’s regular session at $158.81, after swinging between $154.12 and $159.91 on the day. Volume was about 12.24 million shares, underscoring how active trading remains even near year-end. [1]
In after-hours trading, Strategy was last quoted around $158.04 (as of 7:59 p.m. ET Friday), a modest dip that keeps attention on whether Monday’s open will be dictated by weekend crypto moves—or by fresh headlines around liquidity, dilution, and index inclusion. [2]
Bitcoin itself was trading near $87,472 at the time of writing, a level that matters because MSTR still trades in many investors’ minds as a “high-beta Bitcoin proxy,” even as the company works to broaden that perception.
The latest fundamental catalyst: $747.8M raised, zero Bitcoin bought last week
The most recent company-issued market-moving disclosure remains Strategy’s Form 8‑K dated Dec. 22, 2025, which detailed three key updates investors keep circling:
- ATM equity sales: Strategy sold 4,535,000 shares of its Class A common stock (MSTR) for $747.8 million in net proceeds during the week of Dec. 15–Dec. 21. [3]
- Bitcoin purchases: Strategy reported no Bitcoin purchases during that same week. [4]
- Bitcoin holdings: Total holdings were 671,268 BTC as of Dec. 21, with an aggregate purchase price of $50.33 billion and an average purchase price of $74,972 per BTC (inclusive of fees and expenses). [5]
The filing also updated Strategy’s “USD Reserve”—cash set aside to support dividend and interest obligations—to $2.19 billion as of Dec. 21. [6]
That cash reserve matters because it reframes the near-term “bull vs. bear” debate around Strategy:
- Bulls see a liquidity buffer that may reduce tail risk during drawdowns.
- Bears see a company still raising capital (and diluting common shareholders) while Bitcoin buying can pause abruptly—reducing the “Bitcoin-per-share” momentum that has historically supported the stock’s premium.
Importantly, Strategy explicitly noted in the same 8‑K that the reserve’s size and terms are at management’s discretion and can be adjusted with market conditions. [7]
Context investors are still trading: big buys earlier in December, then a pause
The pause was more striking because it followed aggressive buying earlier in the month. In a prior update, Strategy reported purchasing 10,645 BTC between Dec. 8 and Dec. 14 for about $980.3 million, at an average price of $92,098 per BTC. [8]
So the market is left weighing a familiar Strategy question:
Is the company pacing purchases to match conditions in Bitcoin, equity issuance capacity, and its preferred-dividend/interest profile—or is it losing some of the “continuous accumulation” narrative that historically energized momentum buyers?
CoinDesk’s coverage of the Dec. 22 filing emphasized that the company boosted cash via common stock sales while not adding Bitcoin in that week, reinforcing the “liquidity vs. accumulation” tension. [9]
“Beyond Bitcoin exposure”: Strategy’s messaging shift (and why it’s happening now)
In an interview this week, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor argued Strategy is “going beyond bitcoin exposure,” describing the company as a broader “capital markets platform.” [10]
The timing is notable. Strategy faces a market where investors can get direct Bitcoin exposure in multiple ways, including large spot Bitcoin ETFs. Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, told Investopedia that Strategy is “not as differentiated as it was before” given ETF growth and liquid options markets tied to those products, though he also pointed to Strategy’s massive BTC position as a key advantage. [11]
In other words, Strategy is trying to protect its equity story from being reduced to a single sentence: “a leveraged Bitcoin bet.”
The biggest “non-Bitcoin” overhang: index eligibility and forced-flow risk
One of the most material calendar items now has a date: Reuters reported MSCI is holding a public consultation and will announce a decision by Jan. 15 that could affect whether “digital asset treasury” companies remain eligible for certain equity indexes. [12]
Why it matters for Strategy: passive/index-linked ownership can create forced buying or selling. Reuters highlighted the concern that exclusion could trigger significant outflows, and it quoted Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at Jefferies, saying the conversation extends beyond MSCI to the eligibility of these firms in equity indexes more broadly. [13]
Reuters also reported estimates around potential outflows:
- JPMorgan estimated $2.8 billion of outflows if MSCI removes Strategy, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow (Reuters noted examples including Nasdaq 100, CRSP, and Russell indexes). [14]
- Reuters reported Strategy remained in the Nasdaq 100 during the annual reshuffle. [15]
Notably, Reuters also reported that after Saylor dismissed worries about MSCI exclusion, Saylor and Strategy CEO Phong Le later wrote to MSCI estimating exclusion would result in $2.8 billion of the stock being liquidated and could “chill” the industry. [16]
For investors, this sets up a clear “headline hazard” into mid-January: even if Bitcoin stabilizes, index-rule developments can move MSTR.
Forecasts and price targets: why the upside looks huge on paper (and why it’s controversial)
Wall Street and major data providers still show large implied upside from current levels—because MSTR has sold off sharply while many analysts continue to underwrite a scenario where Bitcoin rebounds and Strategy’s capital-markets machine keeps working.
Here’s how consensus targets look across widely followed trackers:
- TipRanks: average price target $467.75, with a high forecast of $705 and a low forecast of $229 (based on 14 analysts offering 12-month targets in the last three months, per TipRanks). [17]
- Zacks: average price target $489.62, with forecasts ranging from $229 to the high end (per Zacks’ compilation of short-term targets). [18]
- MarketBeat: consensus price target $465.13, with a high of $705—but also a notably low outlier target listed at $54, illustrating how dispersed views are depending on which firms are included and how targets are time-stamped. [19]
There’s also evidence of targets being marked down as the stock’s premium compresses. For example, Benzinga’s analyst-ratings page lists Citigroup’s latest target at $325 (reported Dec. 22), while maintaining a Buy rating—suggesting analysts can remain constructive long-term while acknowledging near-term pressure. [20]
The key takeaway: the bullish targets assume multiple things go right at once—a friendlier Bitcoin tape, continued access to capital at acceptable cost, and avoidance of an index-driven forced-selling event.
What’s new in the last 24–48 hours: filings, technical warnings, and positioning
While there have been few fresh company-issued announcements over the past two days, three notable “recent” items are shaping weekend chatter:
- Institutional positioning headline (filing-based): MarketBeat reported that Voya Investment Management reduced its Strategy position during Q3 (per its SEC disclosure), a reminder that some institutions continue to de-risk the name amid volatility and structural debates. [21]
- Technical-analysis spotlight: A technical piece published Friday pointed to a “death cross” setup and suggested Strategy’s premium metrics have weakened as the stock fell toward levels where its equity value is closer to the implied value of its Bitcoin holdings. (Technical analysis is not a fundamental forecast, but it can influence short-term trader behavior.) [22]
- Price action near the low end of the range: Friday’s intraday low of $154.12 placed the stock at the bottom edge of its recent range, reinforcing that many investors are looking for a “capitulation low” vs. a continuation leg lower. [23]
If the exchange is closed: what investors should know before Monday’s session
With U.S. markets closed today, Strategy can’t react to crypto moves until Monday’s open—but Bitcoin can (and will) move in the meantime. Here’s what typically matters most going into the next session:
- Watch Bitcoin over the weekend. MSTR often gaps at the open to “catch up” with major weekend BTC moves because the stock is constrained to market hours while crypto trades 24/7. [24]
- Expect the next disclosure window. Strategy’s filings emphasize that the company uses disclosures (including a public dashboard) to communicate updates on securities and Bitcoin holdings, and investors often anticipate periodic updates around ATM activity and BTC purchases. [25]
- Track the MSCI decision timeline into Jan. 15. Even rumors or incremental reporting around index methodology can move MSTR because of the potential passive-flow implications. [26]
- Pay attention to dilution and the cash-reserve policy. Strategy’s USD Reserve rose to $2.19B, and management explicitly said it can change the reserve based on market conditions and liquidity needs—language investors may read as prudence or as a sign the capital structure is becoming more central to the story than the software business. [27]
- Mark the earnings window (early February). Nasdaq lists Strategy’s next earnings date as estimated around Feb. 4, 2026 (with other calendars clustering around the same week), which could become the next major “fundamentals” catalyst beyond Bitcoin price action. [28]
Bottom line
Strategy Inc stock enters the weekend in a familiar but intensified setup: Bitcoin-linked upside if crypto recovers, capital-structure and index-rule risk if passive flows turn adverse, and high volatility because the market is still debating whether MSTR deserves a premium—or whether it should trade closer to the net value of its Bitcoin holdings once debt, preferred dividends, and dilution are fully priced in.
For Monday, the immediate playbook is straightforward: Bitcoin’s weekend direction sets the tone, while the next catalysts increasingly live in SEC updates, capital-raising mechanics, and the MSCI decision clock heading toward Jan. 15. [29]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.coindesk.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.zacks.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. crypto.news, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.reuters.com
