Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR)—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy—heads into the Dec. 22, 2025 U.S. session as one of the market’s most closely watched “Bitcoin proxy” equities. The setup is unusually headline-driven right now: fresh Bitcoin purchases, capital-raise/dilution dynamics, index-related flow risks, and company guidance that can swing wildly with Bitcoin’s year-end price.
As of the latest available trade data, MSTR closed at $164.82, while Bitcoin traded around $88,633.
Below is what matters most for investors before the opening bell.
The fastest takeaways for Dec. 22
- This is still a Bitcoin-linked stock first. When BTC moves sharply, MSTR often moves more—up or down. Reuters has described Strategy’s stock decline this year as closely tied to Bitcoin’s downturn from an October peak. [1]
- Strategy just reported another ~$1B Bitcoin buy. In an SEC filing, Strategy disclosed it bought 10,645 BTC for $980.3 million at an average price of $92,098 (Dec. 8–14), bringing holdings to 671,268 BTC at an average acquisition price of $74,972. [2]
- Financing and dilution are the core debate. Those buys were funded through the company’s at-the-market program, including sales of MSTR common stock and multiple preferred issues. [3]
- Index classification risk is rising. MSCI is consulting on whether to exclude companies whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of assets from indexes—an issue that could impact passive flows into stocks like Strategy; analysts estimated potential outflows up to $9 billion for Strategy in a downside scenario. [4]
- Nasdaq-100 risk eased—at least for now. Strategy remains in the Nasdaq 100, with the index changes effective Dec. 22, removing a near-term overhang of forced selling tied to that reshuffle. [5]
- Company guidance is now explicitly tied to a BTC year-end range. Strategy updated FY2025 guidance using an assumed $85,000–$110,000 BTC price at Dec. 31, with diluted EPS ranging from about -$17 to +$19—a reminder that reported earnings can be extremely BTC-sensitive under fair-value accounting. [6]
First, “Strategy Inc” in plain English
Strategy completed a rebrand and legal name change from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc in 2025, but it still trades under MSTR for its Class A common stock. The company also has multiple listed preferred securities (e.g., STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC) that it uses as part of a broader “Bitcoin treasury” capital strategy. [7]
The practical implication for investors: while Strategy still has an enterprise software business, market pricing is dominated by Bitcoin exposure + the mechanics of how the company funds additional Bitcoin purchases. [8]
Where MSTR starts the week: price, BTC, and sentiment
- MSTR last close: $164.82
- BTC spot (reference): ~$88,633
This matters because Strategy’s own disclosures emphasize how strongly results can track Bitcoin price changes, and recent market coverage continues to frame MSTR as a high-beta way to express a Bitcoin view. [9]
The biggest company-specific catalyst: Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchases
The most recent disclosed buy (Dec. 8–14)
In its SEC filing, Strategy reported it acquired:
- 10,645 BTC
- $980.3 million aggregate purchase price
- $92,098 average purchase price
- Total holdings: 671,268 BTC
- Aggregate purchase price: $50.33 billion
- Average purchase price across holdings: $74,972 [10]
The prior week buy (Dec. 1–7)
A separate SEC filing covering the prior week disclosed:
- 10,624 BTC bought for $962.7 million at an average price of $90,615
- Holdings at that time: 660,624 BTC [11]
Why it matters for Monday: Strategy’s pattern of frequent, very large BTC buys means fresh filings can move the stock, especially if they reveal the pace of equity issuance required to fund purchases.
The central investor debate: Bitcoin exposure vs. dilution and funding costs
How the buys are being funded
Strategy’s SEC disclosures show that recent BTC purchases were funded using proceeds from its at-the-market (ATM) program, selling combinations of:
- MSTR common stock, and
- preferred shares such as STRF, STRK, STRD, depending on the week. [12]
For example, in the Dec. 8–14 window, Strategy disclosed ATM sales including 4,789,664 shares of MSTR and 1,029,202 shares of STRD, along with smaller amounts of STRF and STRK, generating $989.0 million in net proceeds (per the filing excerpt). [13]
Why dilution is back in focus now
Recent analysis in financial media has argued the company’s “buy more BTC” playbook can run into constraints when:
- MSTR’s share price falls (reducing how much BTC can be purchased per share issued), and
- the company needs to lean more on higher-yielding preferred financing to bridge the gap. [14]
Investor’s Business Daily reported Strategy issued 4.8 million shares recently to fund the bulk of a BTC purchase and noted preferred funding can come with high dividend/financing costs—a dynamic that can change the risk profile quickly in a drawdown. [15]
The “USD Reserve” is meant to lower forced-selling fears—here’s what it is
On Dec. 1, 2025, Strategy announced it established a $1.44 billion USD reserve to support payment of dividends on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt. The company said it intends to maintain at least 12 months of coverage and strengthen it over time toward 24 months or more, subject to its discretion. [16]
In the same release, the company also said the reserve at that time covered about 21 months of these payments. [17]
Why it matters for MSTR holders: This reserve is designed to address a major bear case—whether Strategy might be pressured to sell Bitcoin during a severe downturn to meet fixed obligations. Media coverage has highlighted those concerns, particularly as crypto volatility rose and MSTR fell. [18]
Guidance update: Strategy is explicitly telling investors earnings will swing with BTC
In its Dec. 1 guidance update, Strategy said prior assumptions used a $150,000 BTC price at year-end 2025, but it updated assumptions after BTC fell meaningfully from late-October levels. [19]
Using a year-end BTC range of $85,000–$110,000, Strategy provided target ranges for FY2025:
- Operating income (loss): approx – $7.0B to + $9.5B
- Net income (loss): approx – $5.5B to + $6.3B
- Diluted EPS: approx – $17.0 to + $19.0 [20]
It also highlighted adoption of the crypto accounting standard (ASU 2023-08), meaning Bitcoin holdings are measured at fair value with gains/losses flowing through net income—making reported earnings “extremely sensitive” to BTC price moves. [21]
Bottom line: if you’re trading MSTR around the open, you’re effectively trading a blend of (a) BTC spot direction, (b) BTC volatility, and (c) the market’s confidence in Strategy’s funding engine.
Index headlines: Nasdaq 100 stability, MSCI uncertainty
Nasdaq 100: Strategy stays in (effective Dec. 22)
Reuters reported Strategy retained its place in the Nasdaq 100, despite debate about whether it belongs in a tech-heavy index given its Bitcoin-treasury profile. The index changes are effective Dec. 22. [22]
This matters because removal could have triggered sizable passive fund outflows; Reuters previously cited estimates of $1.6B in passive outflows in a removal scenario. [23]
MSCI: a potentially larger passive-flow risk
Reuters reported MSCI is considering excluding companies with digital-asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets from its global indexes, with a consultation period running until Jan. 15, 2026. Analysts cited by Reuters estimated such a move could drive up to $9B of outflows for Strategy via reduced index-linked demand. [24]
What to watch into Monday: this MSCI theme can create “headline gap” risk—meaning MSTR may react sharply to new developments even if BTC is flat.
Credit and balance-sheet watch: the B- rating and refinancing narrative
Investing.com reported S&P Global Ratings affirmed Strategy’s ‘B-’ issuer credit rating with a stable outlook, describing the USD reserve as a credit positive because it helps pre-fund dividend/coupon payments for 12–24 months before the company might need to defer payments or sell Bitcoin. [25]
The same report also pointed to ongoing risks tied to the company’s convertible debt stack and capital-market dependence. [26]
This is relevant for equity investors because if credit spreads widen or market access tightens during a BTC drawdown, the equity can re-rate quickly.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish consensus, wide dispersion
Wall Street forecasts on MSTR tend to be unusually spread out, largely because analysts embed assumptions about:
- BTC price direction and volatility,
- Strategy’s premium/discount to its underlying BTC holdings (often discussed as modified NAV or “mNAV”), and
- dilution needed to continue accumulation.
As one snapshot, Investing.com’s consensus page cited a 12-month average price target around ~$490, with a high of ~$705 and a low of ~$229 (based on the analysts it tracks). [27]
Recent coverage also reflects how fast targets can change. Financial Times and Barron’s reported Cantor Fitzgerald slashed its price target to $229 while keeping a bullish stance, attributing the cut to weaker BTC and changing premiums across digital-asset-treasury companies. [28]
How to interpret this going into the open: the market is not debating whether Strategy is “good at software” right now—it’s debating whether the capital-raising + BTC accumulation model is sustainable through a downcycle.
The macro calendar matters this week because liquidity is thinner
The week of Dec. 22 is holiday-shortened, which can amplify volatility in high-beta names like MSTR.
Investopedia noted U.S. markets will close early Wednesday and be closed Thursday for Christmas, with several economic releases (including delayed data) clustered earlier in the week. [29]
If rates expectations shift on inflation/growth data, crypto-linked assets can react quickly—something Barron’s recently flagged in the context of potential Fed shifts affecting risk appetite. [30]
A practical pre-market checklist for MSTR (Dec. 22)
Before the bell, traders and longer-term investors typically watch:
- BTC spot direction and weekend gap (MSTR sentiment often tracks it).
- Any new Strategy SEC filings (the company has been reporting frequent BTC and ATM updates). [31]
- Evidence of accelerating dilution (how many MSTR shares were sold vs. how much BTC was bought). [32]
- Index headlines
- Funding conditions (preferred yields/dividend burden narrative, and broader credit tone). [35]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.strategy.com, 7. www.strategy.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.strategy.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.investors.com, 16. www.strategy.com, 17. www.strategy.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.strategy.com, 20. www.strategy.com, 21. www.strategy.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. uk.investing.com, 26. uk.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.ft.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. www.barrons.com, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. www.sec.gov, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. uk.investing.com
