New York, Jan 9, 2026, 10:55 EST — Regular session
- Strategy (MSTR) shares were down about 4% in early regular trading after a volatile week tied to MSCI index rules.
- MSCI kept bitcoin-heavy “digital asset treasury” companies in its indexes for now, but froze changes that can lift index weights.
- Traders are now looking to MSCI’s Feb. 10 index review announcement as the next near-term catalyst.
Strategy Inc shares fell 3.8% to $160.57 on Friday, extending choppy trade after an MSCI index decision that initially lifted the bitcoin-treasury stock. Bitcoin was up about 0.7%, while Coinbase fell about 2%.
Why it matters now: index membership can drive automatic buying or selling by funds that track benchmarks, and Strategy has become a popular equity proxy for bitcoin exposure. MSCI said it will keep “digital asset treasury companies” in its indexes through the February 2026 review, but it will freeze certain inputs used to calculate index weights and defer additions or size-segment moves for names on its preliminary list. (MSCI)
Analysts said the MSCI decision eased one immediate overhang, but it did not settle the debate over whether these firms are operating companies or investment-like vehicles. Owen Lau at Clear Street said it “removes a material near-term technical risk,” while JonesTrading strategist Mike O’Rourke said he suspects exclusion has been “postponed until later in the year.” (Reuters)
The catch is mechanical but important: if MSCI is not updating share counts and inclusion factors for the affected names, selling new stock may no longer translate into a bigger index weight. That can dull the steady bid from passive funds even if the company stays in benchmarks.
Strategy relies on equity sales to finance bitcoin purchases. In a Jan. 5 filing, the company said it bought 1,283 bitcoins between Jan. 1 and Jan. 4 using proceeds from stock sold via an at-the-market program, lifting holdings to 673,783 bitcoins; it also disclosed a $17.44 billion fourth-quarter unrealized loss on digital assets and said its U.S. dollar reserve stood at $2.25 billion as of Jan. 4.
Friday’s move showed the cross-currents. Bitcoin was firmer, but Strategy’s shares were still lower, a reminder that the stock trades on more than the token’s day-to-day swings — financing capacity, index mechanics and risk appetite all show up in the tape.
But the downside case is still easy to sketch: MSCI’s broader review of “non-operating” or investment-oriented entities could bring tougher eligibility tests later, and another sharp bitcoin drawdown could pressure Strategy’s reported results and the economics of raising fresh capital.
Next up, investors will watch MSCI’s February 2026 index review announcement on Feb. 10 and the March 2 effective date for any follow-through that changes how much passive money can move around the stock.
