Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) ended Wednesday’s regular session sharply lower and slipped further after the closing bell, as the company’s “bitcoin treasury” identity kept the stock tightly tethered to crypto risk sentiment.
Strategy stock: the after-hours picture after the bell on Dec. 17
- Regular session close (4:00 p.m. ET):$160.38, down 4.25% on the day. [1]
- After-hours (as of ~4:40 p.m. ET):$159.78, down about 0.37% from the close. [2]
Wednesday’s trading was volatile even before the post-market drift:
- Open: $167.75
- High: $171.16
- Low: $160.31
- Volume: ~18.9M shares [3]
That intraday range matters for Thursday because it frames the nearest “battle lines” for traders: the day’s low around the low-$160s area and the intraday high near $171. [4]
Why MSTR moved today: bitcoin’s slide and “premium collapse” risk
Strategy is still fundamentally a public equity that behaves like a levered bitcoin proxy—and today’s market backdrop leaned against that trade.
Bitcoin was lower late Wednesday at about $85,871, down roughly 2.26% on the day, after trading as high as ~90,187 and as low as ~85,355.
That decline fits the broader theme described by Reuters today: after the recent crypto drawdown, investors are increasingly cautious about paying up for crypto exposure via “treasury companies” like Strategy, where the premium to the value of the underlying bitcoin holdings can compress quickly in a risk-off tape. [5]
Reuters also highlighted the bigger context behind that caution:
- Bitcoin fell as much as 36% from its October record near $126,223 and has still been roughly 30% below that high. [6]
- Strategy’s stock has been hit harder than bitcoin during the downshift in sentiment, with Reuters noting the stock is down materially from mid-year highs as the premium has faded. [7]
In plain terms: when bitcoin drops, MSTR often drops more—because traders are repricing both bitcoin’s move and the market’s willingness to “overpay” for bitcoin exposure through Strategy’s capital-raising machine.
The most important company-specific update investors are still digesting: Strategy’s latest 8-K
Even when the immediate catalyst is bitcoin, Strategy’s mechanics—how it funds purchases and how much potential dilution remains—can drive the stock around the open.
On Dec. 15, 2025, Strategy filed an 8-K with two key blocks of information:
1) ATM sales update: equity and preferred issuance
In the period Dec. 8–Dec. 14, Strategy reported sales under its at-the-market (“ATM”) programs across common and preferred securities, with total net proceeds of $989.0 million. [8]
Notably, it reported selling:
- 4,789,664 shares of MSTR common stock for $888.2 million in net proceeds (in that period). [9]
It also disclosed remaining “available for issuance and sale” capacity across several ATM programs as of Dec. 14, which the market watches closely because it signals how much incremental issuance could still hit the tape. [10]
2) BTC holdings update: another large purchase and a bigger total stack
In the same 8-K, Strategy disclosed that during Dec. 8–Dec. 14 it acquired:
- 10,645 BTC for an aggregate purchase price of $980.3 million, at an average purchase price of $92,098. [11]
And as of Dec. 14, 2025, it reported total holdings of:
- 671,268 BTC
- Aggregate purchase price of $50.33 billion
- Average purchase price of $74,972 [12]
The key takeaway before Thursday’s open: Strategy has continued buying aggressively even as crypto markets weakened, and those buys are explicitly tied to capital raises (including common-stock issuance). [13]
A subtle but important detail for tomorrow
The same 8-K notes Strategy uses a public website dashboard as a disclosure channel for items like bitcoin purchases/holdings and market prices of its securities. That matters because any update posted overnight can quickly become the “why” behind premarket movement. [14]
Strategy’s own forecast framing: why bitcoin price drives earnings guidance
Earlier this month, Strategy also laid out a clearer roadmap for how sensitive results can be to bitcoin prices—another reason MSTR trades like a macro-crypto instrument.
In a Dec. 1, 2025 press release, Strategy said it established a $1.44 billion USD reserve to support dividend payments on preferred stock and interest on debt, funded using proceeds from common stock sold through its ATM program. [15]
In that same release, Strategy updated assumptions and guidance, explicitly emphasizing that under its adopted crypto accounting rules it measures bitcoin at fair value, and therefore earnings can swing materially with bitcoin price changes. [16]
For traders heading into Thursday, this reinforces a simple reality: bitcoin’s overnight tape is MSTR’s primary “earnings engine” in the short run, regardless of what’s happening in enterprise software.
Wall Street forecasts and rating snapshot heading into Thursday
Analyst targets for MSTR remain extremely wide—because analysts are effectively making two forecasts at once: bitcoin’s direction and Strategy’s ability to maintain or rebuild a premium.
Two widely followed consensus trackers currently show a bullish skew, but with big dispersion:
- StockAnalysis consensus: “Strong Buy,” average target $497.29 (14 analysts), with $54 low / $705 high. [17]
- MarketBeat consensus: “Moderate Buy,” average target $475.80 (18 analysts), also showing a $54 low / $705 high range. [18]
How to interpret this before the open:
- The bullish targets implicitly assume some combination of bitcoin stabilization/recovery and a return of investor appetite for Strategy’s structure.
- The low-end targets reflect the downside case where bitcoin stays weak and/or Strategy’s premium remains compressed while issuance continues.
Options market check: volatility expectations into the end of the week
With MSTR’s volatility elevated, the options market is still pricing meaningful near-term movement.
One options-based estimate for contracts expiring Dec. 19, 2025 implies an expected move of roughly ±7.45% over a short window. [19]
Applied to Wednesday’s close (~$160), that corresponds to a rough range of about $148 to $172 by Friday expiration (not a forecast—just an implication of current option pricing and volatility assumptions). [20]
What to watch before the market opens Thursday (Dec. 18, 2025)
Here are the catalysts most likely to move MSTR in premarket trading and the first hour after the opening bell:
1) Bitcoin’s overnight direction (the biggest driver)
MSTR’s short-term sensitivity to bitcoin remains the dominant factor, and bitcoin was already trading down into the mid-$80Ks late Wednesday.
What matters into the open:
- Does bitcoin hold above the session low area (~$85.3K), or does it break lower?
- Does any overnight rebound develop that could lift crypto-linked equities at 9:30 a.m. ET?
2) Any new Strategy disclosures: ATM pace and bitcoin purchase cadence
Because Strategy updates its market on issuance and bitcoin purchases (including through SEC filings and its referenced dashboard disclosure channel), premarket headlines can quickly change sentiment. [21]
Traders will be scanning for:
- Any fresh filing (8-K) that updates ATM sales or BTC purchases.
- Any commentary that signals a change in pace—either acceleration or a pause.
3) Macro data that can swing “risk appetite” at 8:30 a.m. ET
Even though Strategy is crypto-linked, it still trades in the equity ecosystem—so macro surprises that move yields and the dollar can spill into bitcoin and MSTR.
Two economic releases commonly watched at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday:
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). [22]
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (release date shown as Dec. 18, 2025, 8:30 a.m. ET). [23]
A hotter/stronger-than-expected tone can push rates higher and pressure risk assets; a weaker print can do the opposite. The key is how the data shifts the market’s rate expectations—and then how bitcoin reacts.
4) Index and flow narratives: Nasdaq 100 staying power vs. MSCI review risk
Strategy’s index status has been a headline driver in December.
Reuters reported that Strategy retained its place in the Nasdaq 100 in the recent reconstitution, while also noting MSCI is reviewing eligibility of crypto-heavy companies and could decide by mid-January. [24]
This isn’t necessarily a “tomorrow morning” catalyst—but it’s a persistent overhang that can amplify reactions to bitcoin moves because it touches passive flows and market structure.
5) Price levels from today’s tape
From a pure market-structure standpoint, Thursday traders will likely reference:
- Today’s low region (~$160) as near-term support. [25]
- Today’s high (~$171) as near-term resistance. [26]
- A longer-range reference point: MSTR recently traded as low as $155.61 (visible in recent price history), which many market participants treat as an important “line in the sand.” [27]
Bottom line for Thursday’s open
If you’re tracking Strategy (MSTR) into the Dec. 18 session, the playbook is straightforward:
- MSTR is still trading like a high-beta bitcoin vehicle, and bitcoin’s overnight move will likely set the opening tone. [28]
- The most material fundamental “company news” in the background is Strategy’s continued pattern of raising capital (including common shares) and buying bitcoin, as detailed in the latest 8-K. [29]
- Analyst targets remain highly bullish on average, but the dispersion is enormous—reflecting how uncertain the premium and bitcoin path remain. [30]
- Watch 8:30 a.m. ET macro releases (jobless claims and Philly Fed) as potential spark points for broader risk sentiment that can spill into bitcoin and, by extension, MSTR. [31]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.strategy.com, 16. www.strategy.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. optioncharts.io, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.philadelphiafed.org, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.investing.com
