Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) Stock Today: Price, Palantir Partnership, Q3 Results and 2026 Forecasts

Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE: SRFM) remains one of the loudest penny stocks in the regional aviation niche — and one of the riskiest. On 4 December 2025, the stock is trading sharply higher intraday while fresh Q3 results, new financing deals and aggressive Wall Street price targets collide with a very real going‑concern warning and heavy dilution risk. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at the latest price action, news, forecasts and analyses as of 4 December 2025.

SRFM stock price on 4 December 2025

As of the latest trading data on 4 December 2025, Surf Air Mobility shares are changing hands at about $2.49, roughly 8% higher than the prior close, with intraday trading between about $2.40 and $2.55 on volume of around 1.7 million shares.

That bounce comes after a brutal stretch: following its SPAC-style debut and reverse split history, SRFM has behaved like a classic high‑beta penny stock. A Zacks/Nasdaq recap of Q3 noted that by mid‑November the shares were down about 44% year‑to‑date, even as the S&P 500 was up double digits. ^[2]

StockInvest’s technical toolset flags that a “pivot bottom” was formed on 1 December, with the stock up roughly 18% from that level into early December and a buy signal from the 3‑month MACD indicator — but also warns that falling volume on up days is a negative divergence that calls for caution. ^[3]

What the latest numbers say: Q3 2025 earnings and guidance

The most recent major update came on 12 November 2025, when Surf Air reported Q3 2025 results:

Revenue: $29.2 million, slightly above the company’s own guidance range of $27–28.5 million, up about 6% sequentially and 3% year‑over‑year. Growth was driven by a ~40% surge in On Demand charter revenue, partly offset by a mid‑single‑digit decline in scheduled service revenue. ^[4]
Profitability:
- Net loss of $27.2 million for the quarter, a modest sequential improvement but larger than the prior‑year loss due mainly to higher non‑cash stock‑based compensation, fair‑value adjustments, and higher interest expense. ^[5]
- Adjusted EBITDA loss of $9.9 million, in line with guidance and marking the second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA in airline operations when looked at on a segment basis. ^[6]

Management tied the revenue beat and operational improvements to its multi‑year “Transformation Plan” — a four‑phase program that started in 2024 and focuses on exiting unprofitable routes, improving reliability, and using its SurfOS software to squeeze more profit out of charter and scheduled operations. ^[7]

Q4 2025 and full‑year 2025 outlook

Along with Q3, Surf Air raised its guidance:

Q4 2025 guidance:
- Revenue expected between $25.5 million and $27.5 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA loss expected between $8 million and $6.5 million as the company keeps investing in R&D and SurfOS while trying to keep airline operations profitable. ^[8]
Full‑year 2025 guidance:
- Revenue guidance raised to “at least $105 million.”
- Management reaffirmed its expectation that airline operations will be profitable (positive adjusted EBITDA) for the full year 2025, even though the consolidated company will still be deeply loss‑making. ^[9]

A Zacks summary of the same Q3 print calls out a larger‑than‑expected adjusted loss per share (-$0.64 vs consensus -$0.61) but acknowledges that revenue beat estimates by more than 4% and that the stock sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — essentially a “market‑perform” view. ^[10]

From 2024 to 2025: the Transformation Plan backdrop

To make sense of today’s forecasts, you need the trajectory.

In 2024, Surf Air generated $119.4 million in revenue (up around 6% vs the prior year on a pro‑forma basis) and improved its adjusted EBITDA loss to $44.1 million from about $50.9 million. Q4 2024 revenue was $28.05 million, slightly above guidance and up 5% year‑on‑year, with On Demand charter revenue up nearly 40% while scheduled service shrank as the company shut unprofitable routes. ^[11]

The company framed 2024 as Phase 1 – “Transformation”, which included:

Closing a $50 million term loan to address short‑term liquidity and extend key debt maturities to 2028.
Reducing legacy liabilities by over $42 million.
Taking out inefficient aircraft types and adding new Cessna Caravans to better match its Essential Air Service and commuter routes. ^[12]

Phase 2, “Optimization” (2025–2026), is what Q3 2025 results are meant to showcase: a more disciplined route network, higher‑margin charter mix, and early monetisation of SurfOS among beta users and partner operators. ^[13]

Capital, dilution and the “going concern” problem

Here’s the darker half of the picture.

Going‑concern warning

In its Q3 2025 filings, Surf Air explicitly stated there is “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern without continued access to capital. The numbers behind that warning are stark:

Q3 2025 revenue (year‑to‑date): $80.1 million.
Nine‑month net loss: about $73.7 million.
Cash at 30 September 2025: roughly $7.1 million.
Total liabilities: about $199.3 million.
Shareholders’ deficit: about $92.6 million. ^[14]

The filing also notes defaults on certain tax and debt obligations, including roughly $8.9 million of unpaid federal excise taxes and around $0.8 million in property taxes, even though some prior aircraft tax liens were cleared after payments. ^[15]

Heavy financing, converts and warrants

To keep the lights on and fund SurfOS, Surf Air has leaned hard into capital markets:

On 10–12 November 2025, the company announced and then completed a complex package of offerings:
- A registered direct sale of common stock with accompanying warrants at $3.32 per share‑and‑warrant.
- A concurrent private placement of shares and warrants.
- $74 million in senior secured convertible notes due 2028, sold at a discount, with an initial conversion price around $3.98 per share.
- Total gross proceeds from these equity and note offerings were roughly $85 million. ^[16]
A large portion of the proceeds went straight to debt repayment (including about $50.6m under a credit agreement and additional convertible obligations), with the rest earmarked for subsidiaries and SurfOS development. ^[17]
On 24 November 2025, Surf Air filed to register nearly 4.0 million shares underlying warrants with a $3.32 exercise price, which could raise about $13.2 million if fully exercised. At the filing date, the stock traded around $2.07 — meaning those warrants are currently out of the money and represent future dilution rather than near‑term cash. ^[18]
A mixed shelf registration filed and amended mid‑November covers up to $100 million of additional securities and the resale of nearly 24 million shares linked to the new convertible note and other holdings — a reminder that more stock can still hit the market. ^[19]

StockTitan’s summary of the Q3 10‑Q pegs the company’s market capitalisation around $130 million at early‑December prices, underscoring how large these potential issuance blocks are relative to the entire equity. ^[20]

NYSE compliance: a small victory

One bright spot: on 20 November 2025 the NYSE notified Surf Air that it had regained compliance with the exchange’s continued listing standards around market cap and stockholders’ equity (Rule 802.01B), curing a deficiency first flagged in May 2024. The stock remains listed on the NYSE under the ticker SRFM. ^[21]

Palantir’s stake and the SurfOS software story

No modern stock story is complete without an AI subplot.

Palantir as both partner and shareholder

In June 2025, a GuruFocus report highlighted that Palantir Technologies (PLTR) purchased about 1.04 million SRFM shares at $2.07, lifting its stake to roughly 4.46 million shares and close to 19.9% ownership of the company. The news sent Surf Air’s stock up more than 70% intraday that day. ^[22]

Later financing disclosures show Surf Air also issued around 1.88 million shares to Palantir as non‑cash consideration for services under their software agreement, further deepening the relationship. ^[23]

Exclusive software partnership

The Q3 press release also details a five‑year software licensing agreement that makes Surf Air Palantir’s exclusive partner for configuring and selling certain Palantir-powered software into the U.S. Part 135 regional air‑mobility market (small commercial operators). The deal also envisions joint bids for broader software projects with enterprise customers, aircraft manufacturers and even the FAA. ^[24]

SurfOS itself — Surf Air’s AI‑enabled operating system for regional aviation — sits at the centre of this partnership. The company says it plans to commercialise SurfOS in 2026 across three branded products (BrokerOS, OperatorOS, OwnerOS), targeting charter brokers, aircraft operators and owners. ^[25]

What Surf Air actually does today

Behind the stock ticker, Surf Air Mobility is:

One of the largest commuter airlines in the U.S. by scheduled departures and the largest U.S. passenger operator of Cessna Caravans.
Operator of both scheduled commuter flights and On Demand charter services.
Developer of SurfOS, an AI‑driven software platform meant to help the wider regional aviation ecosystem schedule, price and operate flights more efficiently.
A developer of electrified powertrain technology for the Cessna Caravan, with long‑term plans to sell electrification and software solutions to third parties. ^[26]

In 2024, the airline and charter businesses generated all of the revenue; SurfOS and electrification are still pre‑commercial, though management points to On Demand margin improvements at charter partners already using early SurfOS modules. ^[27]

How Wall Street values SRFM: price targets and ratings

Analyst and data‑provider views as of 4 December 2025 are unusually optimistic for such a distressed balance sheet.

Traditional Wall Street analysts

Different aggregators show slightly different averages, but they all agree on one thing: upside, if Surf Air survives.

Barchart / TipRanks-style compilation: A recent Barchart column characterizes SRFM as a “Moderate Buy”, noting that three analysts cover the stock with one “Strong Buy” and two “Hold” ratings. The piece cites an average price target of about $7.75, with a high target of $12, implying potential upside of more than 250%–450% from roughly $2–2.50 per share. ^[28]
StockAnalysis: Tracks four analysts with an average 12‑month target of $5.81, ranging from $3.50 on the low end to $12 on the high end, and tags the consensus rating as “Buy.” It also shows analyst models calling for 2025 revenue of about $108 million (down from 2024’s ~119m as the company prunes routes) rising to roughly $127 million in 2026, with EPS still negative but improving from about ‑3.98 (2025) to ‑2.62 (2026). ^[29]
MarketBeat: Lists an average target around $6.50, again with a range of $3.50–$12.00, implying well over 150% upside from a recent price around $2.30 at the time of that compilation. ^[30]
TickerNerd: Aggregating five Wall Street analysts, it lands on a median price target of $7.75, with the most bullish forecast calling for nearly 480% upside and the most cautious still pointing to ~70% upside from levels just above $2. ^[31]
Fintel: Reports an even higher average one‑year target of about $7.90, with targets spanning roughly $3.54–$12.60. ^[32]

Put together, mainstream analyst targets cluster in the $5–8 range, with outliers up to $12+. Against today’s ~$2.49 price, that implies 150–300% upside if the company hits its plan — but those numbers sit on top of aggressive assumptions about execution, financing and macro conditions.

For a more conservative angle, Zacks currently rates SRFM a Rank #3 (Hold), essentially expecting near‑term performance roughly in line with the market while the earnings‑estimate trend remains mixed. ^[33]

Quant models and technical forecasts: split verdict

Algorithm‑driven services are notably more cautious — or outright negative — than human analysts.

Intellectia.ai

Intellectia’s AI‑based forecast on 4 December 2025 shows: ^[34]

1‑day prediction: small gain (to around $2.30 in their example snapshot).
1‑week prediction: essentially flat.
1‑month prediction: drop of a little over 11% (toward roughly $2.00).
2026 projection: around $3.19 (roughly +39% from ~2.30).
2030 projection: around $3.79 (about +65% from ~2.30).

Despite those medium‑term gains, Intellectia’s overall verdict is harsh: it classifies SRFM as a “Strong Sell candidate,” citing several negative technical signals and a falling trend that it expects to continue over the next few days and weeks. ^[35]

CoinCodex

CoinCodex, another quant platform, is similarly sceptical in the short term: ^[36]

It projects the share price will fall to about $1.86 by 3 January 2026, roughly 19% below current levels.
Its short‑term forecast sees the price sliding to around $2.02 by 9 December 2025, about 18–19% lower than today.
The site labels the sentiment “bearish,” with a Fear & Greed index at 39 (Fear) and notes only 10 green days out of the last 30, alongside nearly 28% volatility.

Yet in its longer‑dated “HODL until September 2026” scenario, CoinCodex plugs in a potential 146% return if its end‑2026 targets are hit — underscoring how path‑dependent the story is. ^[37]

StockInvest.us

StockInvest’s human‑plus‑AI technical analysis has flipped more constructive in early December: it highlights a buy signal from a pivot bottom on 1 December 2025, with the stock up roughly 18.5% since, and an additional buy signal from the 3‑month MACD. At the same time, the service points out that declining volume on up‑days may be an early warning of a fragile rally and concludes the stock “should be watched closely.” ^[38]

Key opportunities for Surf Air Mobility

From the bulls’ point of view, the appeal boils down to leverage — operational and financial:

Multi‑year transformation starting to show up in the numbers
- Revenue is stabilising around the $25–30m per quarter level while adjusted airline EBITDA has turned positive at the segment level for at least two quarters. ^[39]
- Exiting unprofitable routes and shifting mix toward larger aircraft and international charter has driven strong growth in On Demand revenue and improved margins compared to 2023. ^[40]
SurfOS and Palantir partnership could unlock a higher‑margin software layer
- If SurfOS becomes a standard tool for regional charter and commuter operations — powered and co‑marketed by Palantir — Surf Air could move from low‑margin flying into higher‑multiple software revenues over time. ^[41]
Wall Street targets assume survival and execution
- The consensus among covering analysts points to multi‑bagger potential from today’s price if the business plan works and dilution does not overwhelm shareholders. ^[42]
Regained NYSE compliance and heavy recent fundraising
- The November financings, new shelf and regained listing compliance suggest Surf Air has, at least temporarily, bought itself more time to execute. ^[43]

Key risks and red flags

The bear case is equally straightforward — and arguably better anchored in current financials.

Explicit going‑concern warning
The company’s own filings state that recurring losses, negative cash flow, limited cash and large obligations raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern without further capital. ^[44]
Leverage, tax arrears and contingent obligations
A balance sheet with almost $200 million of liabilities, thin cash balances, unpaid federal excise and property taxes, and significant secured debt leaves little room for error if demand weakens or financing markets cool off. ^[45]
Dilution overhang
The new convertible note, registered and private warrants, and mixed shelf layout a path for tens of millions of new shares to be issued over time. That may be necessary to keep the company alive, but it also means common shareholders are sitting under a massive dilution overhang. ^[46]
Execution risk on SurfOS and electrification
SurfOS and the planned electrified Caravan powertrain are still largely pre‑commercial projects. Management itself highlights risks around technology development, regulatory approvals, customer adoption and dependence on key partners in its forward‑looking statements and risk factors. ^[47]
High volatility and conflicting models
Quant services like Intellectia and CoinCodex lean bearish in the short term and flag high volatility, even as some technical services flip to “buy” based on recent price action — a classic sign of a stock driven as much by sentiment and liquidity as by fundamentals. ^[48]

Bottom line: a high‑risk, high‑beta bet on execution

As of 4 December 2025, Surf Air Mobility sits at a strange intersection:

The business trend is improving: revenue is beating guidance, airline operations are edging toward segment‑level profitability, and the company has a credible plan to grow higher‑margin software and electrification businesses with a marquee partner in Palantir. ^[49]
The balance sheet remains fragile: heavy debt, tax arrears, a large shareholder deficit and an explicit going‑concern warning make the equity inherently speculative. Recent financings have reduced near‑term pressure but at the cost of significant potential dilution. ^[50]
Valuation is built on “if everything goes right” scenarios: consensus price targets in the mid‑single digits to high‑single digits imply the market ultimately rewards Surf Air for both turning its airline profitable and successfully commercialising SurfOS — outcomes that are far from guaranteed. ^[51]

For investors scanning Google News or Discover for ideas, SRFM is best thought of as a high‑risk turnaround and growth lottery ticket: potentially explosive upside if the transformation plan and software roadmap play out, set against a non‑trivial chance of severe dilution or permanent capital loss if financing windows close or execution slips.