Updated: December 3, 2025
Key takeaways
- Symbotic Inc. (NASDAQ: SYM) is trading around the low‑$70s today after a violent whipsaw: a 21% plunge on Tuesday following a Goldman Sachs downgrade, and a sharp rebound intraday on Wednesday. [1]
- The AI‑driven warehouse automation company just reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of about $618 million and full‑year revenue of roughly $2.25 billion, up about 26% year over year, backed by a $22.5 billion backlog. [2]
- Despite explosive share‑price gains of well over 150% year to date, Wall Street’s average 12‑month price targets sit in the mid‑$50s to low‑$60s, below today’s price, and views are split between high‑growth optimism and valuation worries. [3]
Symbotic stock price today: from euphoria to whiplash
As of mid‑day on December 3, 2025, Symbotic shares trade around $73, up roughly 9% on the session and recovering part of yesterday’s sell‑off. The stock closed Tuesday at $66.95, down about 21.5% in a single day, after the Goldman Sachs downgrade hit before the open. [4]
Even after that drop, Symbotic remains one of 2025’s most dramatic winners. Depending on the data provider, the stock is up roughly 170%–245% year to date, has a 52‑week range of about $16.32–$87.88, and sports a market cap around $42 billion. [5]
On trailing numbers from StockAnalysis, Symbotic generates about $2.25 billion in revenue over the last 12 months and a small net loss of roughly $17 million, implying an extremely rich price‑to‑sales multiple in the high‑teens at current prices. [6]
In short: Symbotic is a large, highly valued, hyper‑volatile growth stock whose price now swings more on changes in expectations than on day‑to‑day fundamentals.
Q4 2025 earnings: strong growth, mixed profitability, huge visibility
Symbotic’s recent Q4 FY2025 report is the fundamental backdrop for all of this volatility.
Headline numbers
For the quarter ended September 27, 2025, Symbotic reported: [7]
- Revenue: about $618 million, up roughly 10% year over year, and ahead of Wall Street estimates in the low‑$600 million range.
- GAAP EPS: about ‑$0.03, a sizeable miss versus consensus near +$0.05, reflecting continued investment and some non‑cash items.
- Non‑GAAP EPS: around $0.53, massively beating one estimate of roughly $0.11.
- Adjusted EBITDA: approximately $49 million, up from about $42 million a year earlier.
- Free cash flow: multiple sources highlight strong positive free cash flow, with one breakdown citing around $530 million of operating cash flow and roughly $494 million of free cash flow for the quarter. [8]
For the full fiscal year 2025, Symbotic generated about $2.25 billion in revenue, up roughly 26% year over year, while substantially improving margins and cash generation. [9]
Backlog and guidance
Perhaps the most striking metric is Symbotic’s backlog, which management and several analyses peg at about $22.5 billion. [10]
- MarketBeat’s post‑earnings write‑up notes this backlog now represents roughly a decade’s worth of revenue at the current pace, assuming it’s deployed on schedule. [11]
For Q1 FY2026, the company guided to: [12]
- Revenue: about $610–$630 million (midpoint slightly above consensus).
- Adjusted EBITDA: roughly $49–$53 million.
Analysts and commentators have generally interpreted this as evidence that growth will re‑accelerate in 2026, following a period of slowing revenue growth as Symbotic digested earlier contracts. [13]
Balance sheet
Several notes highlight that Symbotic: [14]
- Holds more than $1.2 billion in cash,
- Has no debt, and
- Expanded shareholder equity by roughly 25% in FY2025.
That combination—large backlog, positive free cash flow and no financial leverage—is a big part of the bull case for the stock.
Strategic deals: Walmart, Medline and the GreenBox JV
Symbotic’s growth story is tightly tied to a handful of giant partners.
Walmart: robotics acquisition and a $5B+ backlog boost
In January 2025, Symbotic completed the acquisition of Walmart’s Advanced Systems and Robotics business and signed a large commercial agreement around store‑level “Accelerated Pickup and Delivery” (APD) centers. [15]
Key elements of that deal:
- Symbotic paid $200 million for Walmart’s automation unit.
- Walmart committed to a $520 million development program, including $230 million paid at closing, to fund next‑generation APD systems built on Symbotic’s AI‑powered platform.
- If performance criteria are met, Walmart plans to deploy Symbotic systems to about 400 APD centers over multiple years, with options for more.
- Symbotic estimates the transaction and related agreements could increase its backlog by more than $5 billion and expand its addressable market by over $300 billion in the U.S. alone, thanks largely to new micro‑fulfilment capabilities. [16]
Walmart already uses Symbotic across all 42 of its U.S. regional distribution centers and accounted for roughly 85% of Symbotic’s FY2025 revenue, according to MarketWatch’s recent coverage. [17]
Medline: first major healthcare customer
A big narrative shift in November was Symbotic’s entry into healthcare logistics via a new customer, Medline, a large medical supplies distributor. [18]
- Medline gives Symbotic its first major healthcare vertical deployment, in a sector with hundreds of distribution centers and high demands for precision and speed.
- Commentary around the deal frames it as a crucial diversification step beyond big‑box retail and into a market where automation adoption is still early. [19]
GreenBox JV with SoftBank: opportunity and concern
Symbotic also participates in GreenBox Systems, a joint venture backed by SoftBank that finances and deploys Symbotic systems to third‑party customers. A substantial portion of Symbotic’s $22.5 billion backlog is tied either to Walmart or GreenBox, according to MarketWatch and other coverage. [20]
Goldman Sachs’ downgrade (more on that below) zeroes in on:
- Customer concentration: Walmart and GreenBox jointly represent the vast majority of backlog and fiscal 2025 revenue. [21]
- GreenBox execution risk: GreenBox has been slower than hoped to sign third‑party customers outside the Walmart ecosystem, raising questions about how much of the backlog will translate into sustainable, diversified free cash flow. [22]
This concentration is simultaneously Symbotic’s moat and its Achilles’ heel: it has deep integration with some of the world’s largest retailers, but a relatively short list of distinct customers.
Goldman Sachs downgrade: why the stock crashed on Tuesday
On December 2, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney downgraded Symbotic from Neutral to Sell and set a $47 price target, triggering the 21% intraday collapse. [23]
According to coverage from Investing.com, Benzinga and The Motley Fool, the key points in the downgrade were: [24]
- Valuation: At prices in the mid‑$80s before the downgrade, Symbotic was trading at a level Goldman viewed as disconnected from its medium‑term cash‑flow prospects, even allowing for strong growth.
- Customer diversification: Goldman emphasized that bookings from non‑Walmart customers have been relatively limited, and that Walmart and GreenBox drive most of the company’s enormous backlog.
- GreenBox JV structure: The report highlighted uncertainty around the GreenBox joint venture, including how much incremental free cash flow it will ultimately generate relative to the capital Symbotic must commit.
- Downside scenario: The $47 target implied roughly 45% downside from Monday’s close around $85, and remains significantly below where the stock trades today. [25]
The downgrade came just days after multiple bullish analyst revisions following Q4 earnings, which made the reversal particularly jarring.
Other Wall Street views: bullish targets vs cautious averages
Goldman is now the most prominent bear in the room, but not the only voice. The broader analyst community remains positive on Symbotic’s business while generally questioning the stock’s valuation at current levels.
Fresh upgrades after Q4 earnings
Following the November 24 earnings release, several firms raised targets or ratings: [26]
- Needham: reiterated Buy, price target raised from $57 to $70.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: kept an Overweight rating, raising the target from $60 to $82.
- Craig‑Hallum: upgraded from Hold to Buy with a $70 target.
- Other bullish reports—including from MarketBeat and NAI500—emphasized the strong Q4 cash‑flow inflection, Medline win, and the long visibility provided by the backlog.
One MarketBeat/Investing.com analysis went so far as to suggest that, based on technicals and fundamentals, Symbotic’s stock “could hit $115 by early 2026” in a continued upside scenario. [27]
Consensus targets and ratings today
Looking across several aggregators, Symbotic’s average 12‑month price target now sits well below the current share price:
- MarketBeat: average target around $56, implying roughly 20% downside vs the low‑$70s today. [28]
- StockAnalysis: average target about $53, with an overall “Hold” rating. [29]
- Investing.com: average target roughly $59.9, based on 14 analysts, with a “Neutral” consensus (mix of Buys, Holds and Sells). [30]
- TipRanks / MLQ‑style aggregators: average targets in the low‑$60s and overall ratings running from Buy to Neutral, again below the current price. [31]
Taken together, major data providers cluster around $53–$63 as a 12‑month fair‑value band, versus a market price around $73.
The key nuance: most analysts like the company, but many think the stock has already priced in a lot of that optimism.
Independent valuation work: is SYM overvalued?
Independent research platform Simply Wall St recently published a deep valuation dive titled “Assessing Symbotic Stock After 245% Surge and New AI Logistics Partnerships.” [32]
Their conclusions (based on S&P Global data and their own models):
- Symbotic’s share price is up about 245% year‑to‑date.
- A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model produces an intrinsic value estimate of roughly $71 per share, which they frame as about 20% overvalued at the time of writing.
- Symbotic scores 1 out of 6 on their under‑valuation checklist—i.e., most standard metrics flag it as expensive.
Separately, using the market cap and trailing revenue from StockAnalysis, Symbotic now trades at roughly 18–19 times trailing 12‑month sales—a very high multiple even for a hyper‑growth industrial/automation company. [33]
Valuation work like this doesn’t say Symbotic must fall; it says that for current prices to be justified, growth, margins and execution need to stay very strong for many years.
Growth drivers for 2026 and beyond
Structural tailwinds
Analysts broadly agree on several long‑term positives: [34]
- Automation mega‑trend: Retailers, wholesalers and healthcare distributors are under pressure to improve efficiency, reduce labor dependency and speed up fulfillment—exactly the problems Symbotic’s systems target.
- Huge addressable market: Between traditional warehouses, new micro‑fulfilment centers and international expansion, estimates for Symbotic’s total addressable market stretch into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
- Deep blue‑chip relationships: Walmart, Target, C&S Wholesale and now Medline anchor a customer list that lends credibility and potential cross‑sell opportunities.
- Massive, contracted backlog: The $22.5 billion backlog effectively pre‑books many years of revenue, assuming projects are deployed as planned.
- Balance‑sheet strength: A debt‑free, cash‑rich balance sheet gives Symbotic room to invest through cycles rather than constantly tapping capital markets.
Some bullish research pieces also cite sell‑side forecasts that see Symbotic’s revenue nearly doubling again by 2027 and free cash flow moving into the mid‑hundreds of millions annually if deployment ramps stay on track. [35]
Key risks
At the same time, the recent sell‑off highlights real concerns: [36]
- Customer concentration: Walmart and GreenBox drive the overwhelming majority of current revenue and backlog. Any change in that relationship would be painful.
- Execution risk on backlog: A backlog only creates value if projects are deployed on time and on budget, and if customers actually ramp volumes as expected.
- Profitability still early‑stage: GAAP earnings remain negative, and while cash flow has improved, margins must continue to scale to justify growth‑stock multiples.
- Valuation & sentiment: After a 200%+ run in a single year, small changes in narrative—like the Goldman note—can cause double‑digit percentage moves in a day.
- Competition and insourcing: Giants like Amazon develop their own automation technology, and rival robotics firms are advancing rapidly. Symbotic has an edge today, but that moat must be actively defended.
Put differently: the business thesis looks strong; the question is whether the stock’s price already reflects that, or overshoots it.
Symbotic stock forecast: what the numbers are actually saying
Pulling the threads together, here’s how the current market‑based “forecast” roughly lines up:
- Backlog‑implied growth: A $22.5B backlog vs $2.25B in annual revenue suggests years of double‑digit growth are already contracted, provided Symbotic executes. [37]
- Company guidance: Management’s Q1 FY2026 outlook for ~25–29% revenue growth and stable/improving EBITDA margins implies accelerating growth into 2026 versus 2025. [38]
- Analyst targets: The $53–$63 average 12‑month price‑target range across major aggregators implies that, on balance, analysts expect modest downside or flat performance from current levels, with a huge dispersion between the bearish $10–$47 end and bullish $80‑plus targets. [39]
- Independent DCFs: Third‑party models like Simply Wall St center fair value around the low‑$70s, i.e., roughly where the stock trades today, but label it “overvalued” relative to their strict criteria. [40]
In plain language:
The business outlook is for solid growth, but the stock already embeds aggressive expectations. Upside from here likely requires Symbotic to beat guidance, broaden its customer base, and convert backlog into high‑margin cash flow without major stumbles.
How investors may want to frame Symbotic now
Nothing here is investment advice, and whether Symbotic fits in a portfolio depends heavily on risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification. But based on today’s news flow and data, a reasonable way to frame the stock is:
- As a high‑beta, high‑valuation play on warehouse automation and AI‑driven logistics,
- Supported by real customers, real revenue and a decade‑long backlog,
- But exposed to concentration risk, execution risk and sharp valuation resets when expectations shift.
For some investors, that might belong in a small, speculative growth allocation rather than the core of a portfolio. Others may wait for either further de‑risking (more diversified customers, consistent profitability) or a meaningful pullback in valuation before getting involved.
References
1. www.benzinga.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.benzinga.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. nai500.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.digitalcommerce360.com, 16. www.digitalcommerce360.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. nai500.com, 19. nai500.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.tikr.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.benzinga.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. simplywall.st, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.tikr.com, 36. www.investing.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. simplywall.st
