T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) is under pressure again on December 9, 2025, trading just above a new 52‑week low even as Wall Street continues to project double‑digit earnings growth and meaningful upside over the next year.
Shares recently changed hands around $200–201, with an intraday low near $199.17, versus a 52‑week range of roughly $199–276. [1] Over the last 12 months, the stock has fallen about 14%, although it remains up roughly 7% year to date in 2025. [2]
At the same time, T-Mobile has:
- Reported record postpaid customer growth and raised full‑year guidance after Q3 2025. [3]
- Announced another quarterly cash dividend of $1.02 per share and continued large share buybacks. [4]
- Seen fresh analyst updates today, including a lower price target from Argus Research but continued “Buy” recommendations from much of the Street. [5]
Here’s a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts, and analysis around TMUS as of December 9, 2025.
T-Mobile US Stock Today: Price Action and Valuation Snapshot
Price & performance
- Intraday trading on December 9 shows TMUS around $200–201, down roughly 1.5–2% on the day. [6]
- The stock has set or approached a new 52‑week low near $199.26, well below its 52‑week high of $276.49. [7]
- Over the last year, T-Mobile shares are down about 14%, despite steady revenue growth and expanding dividends. [8]
Valuation
Across several data providers, TMUS currently trades at:
- ~19–20x trailing earnings (P/E)
- ~2.6x trailing sales (P/S)
- Forward P/E around 19.9x and forward P/S about 2.5x, based on 2025 estimates. [9]
- A PEG ratio near 1.3–1.4 and beta around 0.44, suggesting below‑market volatility. [10]
On the income side, the company’s full‑year 2025 dividend of $3.66 per share implies a current yield around 1.8–2.0%, up from an average yield below 1% over the last decade. [11]
The picture: valuation has compressed while fundamentals remain relatively strong, which is why several research shops now describe TMUS as undervalued or “oversold” among mega‑caps. [12]
Fresh Analyst Calls: Argus Cut, KeyBanc Upgrade and Street Targets
Argus trims target but keeps “Buy”
The big headline on December 9, 2025 is a new note from Argus Research:
- Argus cut its price target from $275 to $245, a reduction of about 11%. [13]
- Despite the lower target, Argus maintains a “Buy” / “Strong Buy” stance, seeing the move as a reset rather than a fundamental downgrade.
- At around $204–201 per share, the Argus target implies roughly 20–22% upside over the next 12 months. [14]
MarketBeat’s coverage of the Argus note characterizes it as a more “pessimistic” forecast relative to prior expectations, but still firmly bullish versus today’s price. [15]
What the rest of Wall Street is saying
Several aggregated datasets now show a clustered but still bullish view:
- StockAnalysis (15 covering analysts):
- Average 12‑month price target:$268.87
- Range: $228 (low) to $310 (high)
- Implied upside: ~33.6% from current levels
- Consensus rating:“Buy”. [16]
- GuruFocus (26 analysts):
- Average target:$274.12
- High: $310, Low: $230
- Implied upside: ~34% from around $204
- Average brokerage recommendation: 2.2 on a 1–5 scale (≈ “Outperform”). [17]
- MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Consensus price target: about $266–267
- Breakdown: roughly 3 Strong Buy, ~17 Buy, ~13 Hold ratings. [18]
Quiver Quantitative, summarizing 14 targets issued over the last six months, shows a median target of $266.50 with notable calls including: [19]
- Tigress Financial:$310 (Strong Buy)
- Morgan Stanley:$280 (Buy)
- Barclays:$240 (Equal‑weight/Neutral)
- TD Cowen:$263 (Buy)
- Wells Fargo:$260 (Overweight)
- RBC Capital:$270 (Outperform)
KeyBanc upgrade and recent sentiment shift
Just days before today’s Argus revision, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded TMUS from “Underweight” to “Sector Weight”, effectively moving from a bearish to a neutral view. [20]
- The analyst dropped a prior $200 price target and argued that, after a ~6% year‑to‑date share price drop versus a ~16% gain in the S&P 500, risk/reward has normalized. [21]
- He highlighted better‑than‑expected Q3 earnings and robust subscriber growth, even as competitive concerns and capex have weighed on the stock. [22]
A recent Seeking Alpha note titled “T-Mobile US: Follow the Profit Curve – Upside Ahead” (December 8) echoed this theme, reiterating a Buy rating with a $280 target (around 35% upside) while acknowledging that a revenue miss and higher capital expenditure have clouded near‑term sentiment. [23]
Takeaway:
Even with Argus trimming expectations, the Street still sees TMUS as a growth‑oriented telecom with ~30–35% upside over the next year from depressed levels. The dispersion of targets ($228–$310) underscores uncertainty but also highlights meaningful potential if execution stays on track.
Leadership Update: Jonathan Freier Named Chief Operating Officer
Governance and leadership are part of today’s narrative:
- T-Mobile has appointed longtime executive Jonathan (Jon) Freier as Chief Operating Officer. [24]
- Freier, a veteran leader in T-Mobile’s consumer operations, will earn a $1 million base salary starting in 2026, with additional short‑ and long‑term incentive opportunities. [25]
- The move comes as Srini Gopalan, who took over as President & CEO of T‑Mobile US, consolidates his leadership team during a period of intensive network investment and integration of recent acquisitions. [26]
Freier’s promotion is widely viewed as a continuity move, keeping operational leadership in familiar hands while the company transitions from the Sievert era to Gopalan’s strategy around 5G, fixed wireless, and fiber.
Dividend, Buybacks and Capital Returns
T-Mobile’s capital‑return story has become a central pillar of the investment case.
Rising dividend stream
On the capital‑return front, the company has:
- Declared a new quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share, payable March 12, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 27, 2026. [27]
- Paid total dividends of $3.66 per share in fiscal 2025, up from $2.83 in 2024 and $0.65 in 2023, reflecting a steep ramp in payouts. [28]
- Achieved a current dividend yield of about 1.8–2.0%, versus a five‑year average of 0.86% and 10‑year average of 0.61%. [29]
Dividend safety metrics are reasonably conservative:
- Single‑year payout ratio: ~29% of earnings.
- Three‑year smoothed payout: ~18.7% of cumulative EPS, leaving significant room for reinvestment and buybacks. [30]
Aggressive share repurchases
According to the Q3 2025 10‑Q and related summaries, T-Mobile has also:
- Generated $7.46 billion of operating cash flow in Q3 alone and roughly $21.3 billion year‑to‑date. [31]
- Returned over $10 billion to shareholders in 2025 via approximately $7.5 billion in buybacks and nearly $3.0 billion in dividends through the first three quarters. [32]
The combination of steady dividend growth and sizable repurchases is a key reason many analysts still see TMUS as attractive at current levels, despite the recent drawdown.
Fundamental Backdrop After Record Q3 2025
The latest quarterly numbers help explain why Wall Street remains supportive even as the stock sells off.
Q3 2025 headline numbers
For Q3 2025, T-Mobile reported:
- Total revenue:$21.96 billion, up from $20.16 billion a year earlier. [33]
- Service revenue: about $18.2 billion, up 9% year over year, leading the U.S. wireless industry. [34]
- Net income: around $2.7 billion, with diluted EPS of $2.41. [35]
- Core adjusted EBITDA: up roughly 6% year over year. [36]
Different data vendors show slight differences in whether EPS “beat” or “missed” consensus by a cent or two, but all agree that growth remained solid, with either a modest beat or marginal miss relative to expectations. [37]
Record customer growth and higher guidance
Operationally, Q3 2025 was one of T-Mobile’s strongest quarters ever:
- Total postpaid net customer additions:2.3 million, a company record and industry‑leading figure.
- Postpaid phone net adds:1.0 million, the best Q3 in over a decade. [38]
- Total broadband net additions:560,000, including 506,000 5G fixed‑wireless broadband adds and 54,000 fiber adds. [39]
The strong subscriber performance prompted T-Mobile to raise full‑year 2025 guidance, particularly for customer growth:
- New full‑year postpaid net add outlook:7.2–7.4 million, up from a prior forecast of 6.1–6.4 million, according to majority owner Deutsche Telekom’s Q3 report. [40]
Balance sheet and cash generation
The company’s Q3 10‑Q shows:
- Long‑term debt: about $76.4 billion.
- Cash and cash equivalents: roughly $3.3 billion.
- Operating cash flow year‑to‑date:$21.3 billion, supporting both heavy capex and robust shareholder returns. [41]
Though leverage remains notable following the Sprint and UScellular deals, analysts generally view T-Mobile’s cash generation and EBITDA growth as sufficient to support its balance sheet while continuing buybacks and dividends. [42]
Strategic Moves in 5G, Fiber and M&A
The strategic backdrop helps explain why many price targets still sit well above today’s share price.
UScellular and fiber acquisitions
In 2025, T-Mobile has accelerated both wireless and wireline expansion via M&A:
- Q3 2025 results incorporate customers from the acquisition of UScellular’s wireless business, adding millions of postpaid, prepaid and “other” connections, particularly in rural markets. [43]
- The company also added 755,000 fiber customers through acquisitions of Metronet and other regional fiber assets, plus 97,000 fiber customers from Lumos in Q2 2025. [44]
These deals bolster T-Mobile’s footprint in rural wireless and high‑speed broadband, key growth pillars as mobile and home connectivity converge.
5G and network investment
T-Mobile continues to lean into its 5G leadership:
- Q3 earnings and media coverage highlight industry‑leading 5G broadband growth, with over 500,000 5G fixed‑wireless net adds in the quarter alone. [45]
- The company has raised its 2025 capital expenditure outlook to around $10 billion, reflecting heavy network and integration spending—one factor weighing on sentiment even as it supports long‑term competitiveness. [46]
- Regionally, initiatives such as a $2 billion 5G expansion in Florida, targeting near‑universal coverage across the state, show how T-Mobile is pushing deeper into suburban and rural markets traditionally dominated by incumbents. [47]
Partnerships and wholesale
T-Mobile also benefits from deep MVNO relationships:
- Expanded wholesale deals with cable operators like Comcast and Charter mean more traffic flowing over T-Mobile’s network in both consumer and business segments, with economics that are generally capital‑light relative to direct subscriber growth. [48]
Why the Share Price Is Under Pressure
Given the strong operating metrics, why is the stock near a 52‑week low?
Several factors are in play:
- Higher capex and M&A digestion
- The raised capex guidance and integration of UScellular and fiber assets mean elevated spending in the near term, which some investors worry could compress free cash flow temporarily. [49]
- Competitive intensity from AT&T and Verizon
- AT&T and Verizon have both reported stronger‑than‑expected Q3 subscriber additions, supported by aggressive iPhone promotions and bundled plans that combine wireless with fiber broadband. [50]
- This fuels concern that the “easy” share‑gain phase of T-Mobile’s growth may be behind it, with incumbents fighting harder on price and bundles.
- Insider and controlling‑shareholder selling
- Data from QuiverQuant shows 414 insider trades in the last six months, with 413 sales and just 1 purchase, dominated by majority shareholder Deutsche Telekom, which sold more than 6.4 million shares. [51]
- MarketBeat reports that insiders have sold about 1.37 million shares worth over $317 million in the last three months. [52]
- Separately, a recent MarketBeat piece notes that Rep. Jonathan L. Jackson (D‑Illinois) sold a small TMUS position (between $1,001 and $15,000) in November, which, while immaterial financially, adds to headlines around insider and political selling. [53]
- Mixed narrative around Q3 results
- Some analysts and outlets emphasize beats on revenue and EPS, while others highlight a perceived EPS miss and heavier spending. [54]
- That has contributed to a narrative of “great customer growth, but at a cost”, particularly in the context of rising competition.
- Macro and style headwinds
- With investors rotating towards high‑growth tech and AI names, telecoms—even faster‑growing ones like T-Mobile—often get treated as defensive, rate‑sensitive plays, compressing valuation multiples when rates stay higher for longer.
Put together, these issues help explain why TMUS is trading closer to 20x earnings with a 2% yield, rather than the higher multiples seen when enthusiasm around 5G and the Sprint merger was at its peak.
T-Mobile US Stock Forecast: What the Latest Data Suggests
Looking beyond the near‑term volatility, current forecasts sketch out a still‑healthy growth path.
Wall Street financial forecasts
According to StockAnalysis, which aggregates Wall Street estimates: [55]
- Revenue 2025:$89.97 billion, up 10.5% from 2024.
- Revenue 2026:$96.60 billion, up 7.4% from 2025.
- EPS 2025:$10.28, up about 6.5% year over year.
- EPS 2026:$11.94, up about 16.1% from 2025.
Those numbers imply:
- Mid‑single‑digit to mid‑teens EPS growth, even while T-Mobile is still integrating acquisitions and ramping network investments.
- A forward P/E in the high‑teens, which many analysts view as reasonable given the growth profile and capital‑return program. [56]
Price targets and upside
Blending the forecasts:
- Street consensus 12‑month price targets tend to cluster between $265 and $275, implying ~30–35% potential upside from current prices near $200. [57]
- The bullish camp (e.g., Tigress at $310, Seeking Alpha at $280) leans heavily on T-Mobile’s subscriber momentum, 5G leadership, and improving returns on capital. [58]
- More cautious targets (e.g., Argus at $245, Barclays at $240) factor in elevated capex, competitive risk, and insider selling as reasons to temper expectations. [59]
Important caveat:
Price targets are projections, not guarantees. They can change quickly after new earnings, regulatory shifts, or strategic announcements—especially with a major event like the Q4 and full‑year 2025 earnings call scheduled for February 4, 2026. [60]
Upcoming Catalysts to Watch
Investors following TMUS into 2026 may want to keep an eye on:
- UBS Global Media and Communications Conference
- CEO Srini Gopalan is presenting a business update today, December 9, 2025, at 9:45 a.m. ET, which may offer fresh commentary on capex, the competitive landscape, and capital returns. [61]
- Q4 2025 earnings (February 4, 2026)
- The market will scrutinize free cash flow, 2026 guidance, and integration progress for UScellular and the fiber assets. [62]
- Dividend decisions beyond 2026
- With payout ratios still moderate, analysts will be watching for continued dividend growth alongside buybacks. [63]
- Regulatory and spectrum developments
- Industry‑wide issues, such as spectrum auctions and disputes over rival spectrum deals, could change the competitive playing field—an area where T-Mobile has been vocal at the FCC. [64]
Bottom Line
As of December 9, 2025, T‑Mobile US stock sits near a 52‑week low despite:
- Record postpaid and broadband customer growth
- Raised full‑year guidance for 2025
- Growing dividends and aggressive share repurchases
- Consensus forecasts for continued revenue and EPS growth into 2026
Fresh research today from Argus brings expectations down from very bullish to “still bullish, but more cautious,” while aggregate Street data continues to point to meaningful upside potential over the next 12 months if T-Mobile executes and competitive pressure remains manageable. [65]
At the same time, investors must weigh:
- Higher capex and acquisition integration risk
- Stronger counter‑moves from AT&T and Verizon
- Notable insider and controlling‑shareholder selling
- General market preference for higher‑growth, non‑telecom names
For now, TMUS looks like a high‑quality but out‑of‑favor growth telecom: fundamentally strong, sentiment‑weak, and heavily dependent on upcoming 2026 guidance and execution to unlock the upside implied by current analyst forecasts.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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