T-Mobile US (TMUS) Stock News Today, Dec. 22, 2025: Bernstein Holds Neutral as SoftBank Stake Sales and 2026 Buyback Plan Shape the Outlook

T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) enters the final full trading week before year-end with investors balancing two very different forces: a steady stream of shareholder-friendly capital return commitments on one side, and a still-heated wireless competitive backdrop on the other.

On Monday, December 22, 2025, TMUS stock traded around $195 in midday U.S. trading, down modestly on the session.

TMUS stock today: quick snapshot for December 22, 2025

Here are the key developments shaping the T-Mobile stock conversation as of 22.12.2025:

Analyst update: Bernstein reiterated a Neutral stance with a $265 price target. ^[1]
Shareholder returns: T-Mobile recently authorized a new $14.6 billion shareholder return program through Dec. 31, 2026, combining buybacks and dividends. ^[2]
Dividend visibility: A $1.02 quarterly dividend (payable March 12, 2026) remains central to the capital-return narrative. ^[3]
Macro/flow headline: Reuters reported SoftBank has been selling portions of its T-Mobile stake as it races to fund a large OpenAI commitment—potentially adding a supply/overhang factor for TMUS shares. ^[4]
Consensus remains constructive: A separate analyst-consensus dataset shows a “Buy” consensus with an average target near $262 (range $220 to $310). ^[5]

What’s moving T-Mobile (TMUS) stock on December 22, 2025

1) Bernstein reiterates Neutral with a $265 target

A fresh note from Bernstein’s Laurent Yoon kept a Neutral view on T-Mobile and left the firm’s target price unchanged at $265. ^[6]

For TMUS stock, this type of reiteration matters less as a single “catalyst” and more as a signal of the debate currently dominating telecom coverage: T-Mobile’s operational momentum is hard to ignore, but the stock’s valuation and competitive intensity keep some analysts from leaning aggressively bullish.

2) SoftBank stake sales add a “technical” pressure point

One of the more consequential headlines crossing global markets today isn’t about T-Mobile’s operations—it’s about a major shareholder’s financing needs.

Reuters reported (via TradingView) that SoftBank has sold $4.8 billion of its T-Mobile US stake as part of efforts to meet a $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by year-end. The same report said SoftBank still owned about 4% of T-Mobile (worth roughly $11 billion at the end of September, per LSEG data cited by Reuters). ^[7]

Why this matters for TMUS stock today:

Large, non-operational sellers can create short-term supply even if company fundamentals don’t change.
Investors sometimes treat this as an “overhang” until the market believes the selling is complete or absorbed.

The biggest structural support for TMUS: buybacks + dividends

T-Mobile’s new $14.6B shareholder return program through 2026

Earlier this month, T-Mobile announced its board authorized a new shareholder return program of up to $14.6 billion running through December 31, 2026, expected to include additional share repurchases and cash dividends. ^[8]

Importantly:

The amount available for repurchases under the 2026 program is expected to be reduced by dividends paid, including the previously announced $1.02 dividend scheduled for March 12, 2026. ^[9]
T-Mobile described the new plan as in addition to the existing $14.0 billion return program that runs through December 31, 2025, with unused capacity rolling into the new program. ^[10]

From a stock-market perspective, this matters because it shapes:

EPS support via share count reduction (buybacks), and
A clearer income profile via dividends—especially relevant as telecom investors compare T-Mobile to AT&T and Verizon.

The $1.02 quarterly dividend: dates investors are watching

T-Mobile also announced its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.02 per share, payable March 12, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026. ^[11]

For TMUS stock watchers, the “rhythm” of these dates can influence positioning into year-end and early 2026—especially among dividend-focused funds.

Fundamentals check: why bulls still point to subscriber and cash-flow strength

The clearest operational argument for owning T-Mobile stock continues to be the company’s subscriber momentum—paired with rising cash generation and explicit guidance.

Q3 2025 showed “record” customer growth and strong financial metrics

In its Q3 2025 earnings release, T-Mobile reported (among other highlights):

Total postpaid net customer additions:2.3 million
Postpaid phone net additions:1.0 million
Total broadband net customer additions:560,000, including 506,000 5G broadband net additions
Service revenues:$18.2 billion, up 9% year over year
Net income:$2.7 billion
Diluted EPS:$2.41
Core Adjusted EBITDA:$8.7 billion
Adjusted Free Cash Flow:$4.8 billion ^[12]

T-Mobile also disclosed that Q3 included stockholder returns of $3.5 billion, including $2.5 billion of repurchases and $987 million in dividends, under its then-current authorization. ^[13]

Guidance: raised outlook, but capex remains a key swing factor

T-Mobile’s Q3 release also raised guidance “across the board,” including:

Total postpaid net additions expected 7.2–7.4 million (up from 6.1–6.4 million)
Core Adjusted EBITDA expected $33.7–$33.9 billion (up from $33.3–$33.7 billion)
Cash purchases of property and equipment expected to be about $10.0 billion
Adjusted Free Cash Flow expected $17.8–$18.0 billion ^[14]

The raised free cash flow outlook supports the capital return story. But the $10B capex expectation is also why the market continues to watch promotional intensity and network investment needs closely.

UScellular integration: synergy upside, execution risk

T-Mobile’s acquisition and integration of UScellular assets and customers remains part of the longer-term thesis.

Reuters previously reported T-Mobile expected about a $400 million service revenue boost in Q3 from integrating UScellular customers, and that the company raised its projected annual integration cost savings to $1.2 billion (from $1 billion), while shortening the expected integration timeline to about two years. ^[15]

This is a classic “good-news, still-work-to-do” setup:

Synergies can expand margins and cash flow if execution stays on track.
Integration costs, billing transitions, and churn management can create near-term volatility even in a strong strategic deal.

TMUS stock forecast and analyst targets: where Wall Street stands now

Consensus targets show notable upside — but recent cuts reveal the debate

A widely followed analyst-consensus snapshot (StockAnalysis) shows:

Consensus rating: Buy
Average target price:$262
Low / high target:$220 to $310 ^[16]

That same dataset lists several recent price-target reductions in December (important context for December 22 trading), including:

Citigroup: target cut $268 → $220 (Hold maintained) on Dec. 19, 2025 ^[17]
Goldman Sachs: target cut $287 → $251 (maintains Strong Buy) on Dec. 12, 2025 ^[18]
Morgan Stanley: target cut $280 → $260 (maintains Buy) on Dec. 10, 2025 ^[19]
Argus Research: target cut $275 → $245 (maintains Strong Buy) on Dec. 9, 2025 ^[20]
KeyBanc: upgraded from a bearish stance to Hold (Sector Weight) on Dec. 2, 2025 ^[21]

Put simply: many analysts still see upside, but the near-term narrative has shifted toward risk management—especially around competition and promotions.

Bernstein’s $265 Neutral fits the “quality, but priced” framework

Bernstein’s Neutral with a $265 target (reiterated today) effectively lands in the same neighborhood as the broader consensus targets, but with less conviction about near-term outperformance. ^[22]

For SEO-minded readers looking for the “TMUS stock forecast” takeaway: targets are still above the current share price, yet the street’s incremental revisions suggest analysts are not assuming an easy glide path through 2026.

Competitive pressure: the key risk behind TMUS underperformance fears

The stock market’s main worry isn’t that T-Mobile loses customers—it’s that winning customers becomes more expensive.

Promotions escalated into year-end 2025

Investors.com reported earlier this month that T-Mobile launched an especially aggressive holiday promotion, including multi-line offers with device incentives tied to iPhone 17-era competition—part of a broader industry environment where all major carriers have leaned harder into promotions and subsidies. ^[23]

Barron’s framed KeyBanc’s December upgrade as a sign that, after a selloff tied to competitive concerns, the risk/reward looked more “neutral” at reduced prices—even while acknowledging structural and cyclical challenges for the sector. ^[24]

Digital switching and legal headlines add complexity

Investors.com also highlighted a broader industry move toward self-service digital switching—and said AT&T is suing T-Mobile over alleged unauthorized data scraping through AI tools, a development that investors may treat as a headline/legal overhang until clearer details emerge. ^[25]

Leadership and execution: COO appointment is part of the 2026 story

Management transitions are another factor investors often revisit when a stock is under pressure.

In an SEC filing, T-Mobile disclosed it appointed Jonathan A. Freier as Chief Operating Officer, effective December 5, 2025, including details of his compensation structure beginning in 2026. ^[26]

In isolation, a COO change rarely moves a mega-cap telecom stock day-to-day. But in the current environment—where execution on digital switching, promotions, network investment, and integration matters—leadership structure can become part of the market’s confidence calculus.

What to watch next for T-Mobile stock

As December 2025 closes out, TMUS investors typically focus on a short list of “next signals” rather than one single headline:

Buyback pace and capital return cadence
Watch for updates on how quickly T-Mobile deploys authorization within the new 2026 $14.6B framework. ^[27]
Promotional intensity into early 2026
The key is whether the industry can cool promotional spending after the holiday window—or whether competition keeps subsidies elevated. ^[28]
Free cash flow delivery vs. capex reality
T-Mobile guided to $17.8–$18.0B adjusted free cash flow and about $10B capex—metrics that are central to the “defensive growth + returns” equity story. ^[29]
UScellular integration milestones
Investors will look for evidence the timeline and synergies described to Reuters are translating into the income statement and churn performance. ^[30]
Any follow-through on SoftBank selling
If the market concludes a major seller has largely completed its sales, it can remove a “technical” weight from the stock—especially if fundamentals remain intact. ^[31]

Bottom line (Dec. 22, 2025): TMUS stock is being pulled between longer-term confidence (subscriber scale, raised guidance, and a strengthened shareholder return program) and near-term uncertainty (competitive pricing, promotional spend, and large-holder selling headlines). Bernstein’s Neutral reiteration and the SoftBank funding story keep today’s focus firmly on valuation, flows, and execution—not just subscriber growth. ^[32]