T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) is having a volatile end to 2025. The 5G leader’s share price has slid to near 52‑week lows even as it delivers record customer growth, raises guidance, and rolls out a bigger dividend. That disconnect is exactly what is driving a flurry of fresh analyst calls, insider activity and valuation debates today, December 10, 2025.
This article rounds up the latest TMUS stock news, forecasts and analyses as of December 10, 2025, and puts them into a clear, investor‑friendly context. It is informational only and not investment advice.
TMUS Stock Today: Near 52‑Week Lows Despite Strong Fundamentals
As of late trading on December 10, 2025, T‑Mobile US stock is changing hands at about $197 per share, down roughly 2% on the day.
Key snapshot data:
- Current price: ~$197
- Intraday range: about $197–203
- Market capitalization: roughly $220–225 billion, keeping TMUS firmly in mega‑cap territory [1]
- 52‑week range: approximately $196.85 to $276.49 [2]
- 1‑year performance: about ‑15–16% over the past 12 months [3]
Over the last few months, TMUS has fallen more than 20% from its 2025 highs, driving its Relative Strength Index (RSI) down to the mid‑20s – a classic “oversold” reading highlighted by MarketBeat in a November analysis that called T-Mobile “the most oversold mega‑cap stock.” [4]
Risk‑adjusted metrics echo that short‑term pain: portfolio analytics site PortfoliosLab shows TMUS with a one‑year Sharpe ratio of about ‑0.39, signaling poor return per unit of risk over the last year, even though its 5‑ and 10‑year Sharpe ratios remain positive. [5]
December 10, 2025: What’s Moving T‑Mobile Stock Today
1. Morgan Stanley: Top Pick, but Price Target Cut to $260
Morgan Stanley is front and center in today’s TMUS story. The firm:
- Maintains an “Overweight” rating on T-Mobile
- Names TMUS its “top pick” in the U.S. wireless industry
- Cuts its price target from $280 to $260 per share [6]
In a Reuters summary, Morgan Stanley says it expects T‑Mobile to keep gaining market share thanks to:
- The strongest brand in U.S. wireless
- The largest mid‑band 5G spectrum position
- A track record of customer satisfaction that stands out in the sector [7]
The target reduction reflects sector headwinds and recent share price weakness rather than a loss of conviction in the long‑term story. Up to yesterday’s close, Morgan Stanley notes TMUS was down around 9% year‑to‑date, compared with modest gains in AT&T and flat performance in Verizon. [8]
2. UBS Reiterates “Buy,” Consensus Target Mid‑$260s
Also today, UBS reiterated its “Buy” rating on T-Mobile. MarketBeat’s recap of the UBS note shows:
- Street consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Breakdown: 3 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 11 Hold
- Consensus price target: about $265–266 per share
- TMUS trades at roughly 19x earnings with a market cap of ~$223 billion and a 52‑week range of ~$199–276 [9]
UBS highlights that T‑Mobile:
- Beat Q3 EPS expectations, posting $2.41 vs. $2.40 consensus
- Delivered revenue of about $21.96 billion, up 8.9% year‑over‑year
- Is expected by analysts to earn ~$10.37 per share in 2025 [10]
3. Argus Keeps “Buy” but Slashes Target to $245
Yesterday (December 9), Argus Research cut its TMUS price target from $275 to $245, a reduction of about 11%, while maintaining a “Buy” rating. [11]
A MarketBeat summary of the Argus move notes that:
- The cut came as TMUS hit a new 52‑week low around $199.17
- The broader MarketBeat consensus target remains near $266 with a “Moderate Buy” rating [12]
Separately, Nasdaq’s Argus-focused report pegs the average one‑year TMUS price target at $279.61 as of December 5, offering roughly 37% upside from a recent close around $204. [13]
4. Tigress Financial: $310 Bull Case on AI and 5G
At the bullish end of the spectrum, Tigress Financial recently raised its TMUS price target to $310 from $305, maintaining a Buy rating. [14]
Tigress argues that T-Mobile is:
- Building the “broadest and deepest” mid‑band 5G coverage in the U.S.
- Well‑positioned to drive revenue and cash‑flow growth
- Using AI and digitization to unlock further operating efficiency and shareholder value [15]
5. Insider Selling: Director Letitia Long Cashes Out $306K
Fresh SEC filings show Director Letitia A. Long sold 1,457 TMUS shares on December 5, 2025, for proceeds of about $306,436. [16]
The sale is small relative to T-Mobile’s >$220 billion market cap and comes amid mixed insider activity more broadly:
- MarketBeat notes that CEO Srini Gopalan recently bought 9,800 shares (~$2 million value)
- Over the last 90 days, insiders have sold about 1.3 million shares, worth roughly $300 million, leaving insider ownership around 0.37% [17]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically signal trouble – it can reflect diversification or personal liquidity needs – but the combination of insider sales and a sliding share price is on investors’ radar.
6. Quant & Technical Models
Short‑term trading models are also generating signals around TMUS:
- Technical forecaster StockInvest.us recently projected a “fair opening price” around $202.21 for December 10 (a modest 0.4% move vs. the prior close), underscoring the near‑term choppiness rather than a clear trend. [18]
- MarketBeat’s oversold analysis flagged TMUS with an RSI around 26, and a price drop of more than 20% since late August – classic “oversold” territory that often precedes mean‑reversion rallies. [19]
How Is T‑Mobile’s Business Actually Performing? Q3 2025 in Focus
On the fundamentals, T-Mobile is still executing at a very high level. In its Q3 2025 results, the company delivered:
- Service revenue: $18.2 billion, +9% year‑over‑year
- Postpaid service revenue: $14.9 billion, +12% year‑over‑year, best growth in the U.S. wireless industry [20]
- Total revenue: about $21.96–22.0 billion, up ~4–9% year‑over‑year depending on the measure cited [21]
- Net income: $2.7 billion, including a roughly $208 million impairment
- Diluted EPS:$2.41, slightly above Wall Street’s $2.40 consensus [22]
- Core Adjusted EBITDA: $8.7 billion, +5–6% year‑over‑year [23]
- Operating cash flow: about $7.5 billion, +21% year‑over‑year
- Adjusted free cash flow: circa $4.8 billion [24]
On the customer side:
- Total net customer additions hit 2.4 million in Q3, a record, pushing T-Mobile to ~139.9 million customers overall [25]
- Postpaid phone net adds were around 1 million, with 2.3 million total postpaid net adds, the highest in T-Mobile’s history and best in the industry [26]
- Fixed‑wireless broadband continues to soar: T-Mobile added 560,000 broadband customers, including 506,000 5G broadband net adds, ending the quarter with about 7.96 million 5G broadband customers [27]
Churn remains a strong point:
- Postpaid phone churn: ~0.89%, essentially flat year‑over‑year
- Prepaid churn: about 2.77%, slightly improved vs. last year [28]
In short, TMUS is still growing customers, revenue and cash flow at a healthy clip – even while the stock trends lower.
Raised 2025 Guidance – And Hints of More to Come in 2026–27
Management used Q3 to raise full‑year 2025 guidance:
- Postpaid net adds: now 7.2–7.4 million (up from 6.1–6.4 million)
- Core Adjusted EBITDA:$33.7–33.9 billion (previously $33.3–33.7 billion)
- Operating cash flow:$27.8–28.0 billion (up from $27.1–27.5 billion) [29]
Looking further out, T-Mobile is already telegraphing a more ambitious 2026–2027 outlook:
- At the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference, CEO Srini Gopalan said he is “excited to share our ‘26 and ‘27 guidance” and expects to raise guidance further to reflect recent M&A and underlying business strength. [30]
- T-Mobile is targeting an increase of nearly $10 billion in Core Adjusted EBITDA by 2027 vs. 2023 levels, representing roughly a 7% CAGR over that period. [31]
Growth Drivers: 5G Network, UScellular Deal, Home Internet and AI
1. 5G Network and Spectrum Advantage
T-Mobile continues to lean into its mid‑band spectrum lead:
- A recent Ericsson‑backed analysis notes that T-Mobile’s multi‑band 5G build‑out is expected to boost network capacity 14‑fold versus 2019, enabling more services and revenue per customer. [32]
- In April 2025, T-Mobile announced it had reached a nationwide “5G Advanced” milestone, positioning its network for more advanced consumer, enterprise and developer use cases. [33]
T-Mobile is also actively reshaping its spectrum portfolio:
- In March 2025, it agreed to sell its 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to Grain Management, freeing capital and simplifying its spectrum stack while still leaning heavily on mid‑band and 2.5 GHz assets. [34]
2. UScellular Acquisition: Rural Footprint and Broadband Upside
In August 2025, T-Mobile closed its $4.3 billion acquisition of UScellular’s wireless operations, adding:
- Over four million customers
- UScellular’s wireless stores and selected spectrum assets
The combined company aims to deliver:
- Improved network experiences and coverage, especially in rural and under‑served areas
- Access to T-Mobile’s in‑home broadband for hundreds of thousands of households that previously lacked high‑speed options [35]
Crucially for shareholders, T-Mobile said the UScellular deal will not affect its 2025 shareholder return authorization of up to $14 billion, indicating confidence in its balance sheet and cash generation. [36]
3. 5G Home and Small Business Internet
T-Mobile is turning 5G into a wireline disruptor:
- Its 5G Home and Small Business Internet service now offers multiple plans, starting around $35/month, positioned as a simple, bundled alternative to cable and DSL. [37]
- With nearly 8 million 5G broadband customers as of Q3 2025, fixed wireless access (FWA) is becoming a meaningful growth engine and cross‑sell opportunity. [38]
Network investments are substantial. In Florida alone, T-Mobile recently completed a $2 billion multi‑year 5G expansion, adding or upgrading more than 2,600 sites and boosting average 5G download speeds to ~267 Mbps, more than triple 2021 levels. [39]
4. AI and Digitization: Cost and CX Levers
T-Mobile’s AI strategy is another theme analysts are watching:
- The company has partnered with OpenAI on an AI‑driven customer‑experience platform called IntentCX, which T-Mobile believes could reduce inbound customer contacts by up to 75% and cut operating costs. [40]
- It has also teamed up with NVIDIA, Ericsson and Nokia to launch an AI‑RAN Innovation Center, applying AI to radio access networks to improve performance and efficiency. [41]
These digital initiatives are a big part of why some research houses, such as Tigress and independent commentators, see long‑run margin expansion and EPS growth beyond current guidance. [42]
Capital Returns: Dividend and Buybacks
T-Mobile continues to mature into a cash‑returning telecom rather than a purely high‑growth story.
New Quarterly Dividend of $1.02
On December 4, 2025, T-Mobile’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.02 per share, payable March 12, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026. [43]
At today’s price around $197, that implies an annualized dividend of $4.08 per share and a yield of roughly 2%. MarketBeat’s oversold article estimates the dividend yield at about 2.07%, consistent with that math. [44]
Share Repurchases
T-Mobile is also returning capital through buybacks. As noted in the UScellular deal announcement, it expects no impact on its 2025 shareholder return authorization of up to $14 billion, which includes both share repurchases and dividends. [45]
Combined, the 2%+ yield and aggressive repurchases could give long‑term holders a meaningful capital‑return kicker if earnings keep compounding.
Valuation and Analyst Forecasts: 30–35% Upside?
Across Wall Street, TMUS is still viewed as a buy‑rated 5G compounder despite the 2025 drawdown.
Some key data points from major forecast aggregators:
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 15 covering analysts
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: about $267.5
- Target range:$228–$310, implying roughly +34% upside from current levels [46]
- Public.com:
- 16 analysts
- Consensus rating: Buy
- 2025 price prediction: about $267.2 per share [47]
- Benzinga ratings data:
- Around 25 analysts tracking TMUS
- Consensus price target: roughly $259–259
- High: $310 (Tigress)
- Low: $216 (TD Cowen) [48]
Layer on the named broker calls discussed earlier:
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $260 target, top pick in U.S. wireless [49]
- UBS: Buy, contributing to a ~$265 consensus [50]
- Argus: Buy, but with a more cautious $245 target [51]
- Tigress Financial: Buy, $310 target based on AI‑ and 5G‑driven growth [52]
Put simply, most analysts still see 25–40% upside over the next 12–18 months, even after incorporating the latest target cuts.
Why Is the Stock Down? Key Risks and Overhangs
If the fundamentals look strong and the Street is mostly bullish, why is TMUS trading near its 52‑week low? Several overhangs show up repeatedly in recent commentary:
- Rising Capex and Integration Costs
- Q3 2025 saw capital expenditures jump ~35% year‑over‑year to about $2.64 billion, as T-Mobile builds new sites and integrates UScellular’s network. [53]
- Elevated spend is necessary for long‑term 5G leadership but weighs on free cash flow in the near term.
- Intense Competitive Environment
- An Investors Business Daily report today highlights how AT&T is following T-Mobile into self‑service digital switching via eSIM, making it easier for customers to move between carriers. [54]
- The big three (T, VZ, TMUS) are also locked in heavy holiday promotions, especially around the iPhone 17, with aggressive trade‑in offers and device subsidies squeezing margins. [55]
- Sector Sentiment and Rate Sensitivity
- Telecom is viewed as a bond‑like, capital‑intensive sector; higher interest rates and regulatory noise have pressured multiples across the space.
- Marketwatch data from December 9 shows TMUS 27% below its March 2025 high, with above‑average trading volumes – a sign of institutional repositioning. [56]
- Execution Risk on AI and UScellular
- While AI and the UScellular deal are long‑term positives, they bring integration and technology‑execution risk. T-Mobile must prove it can actually capture the promised $10 billion+ EBITDA uplift by 2027. [57]
Is T‑Mobile US (TMUS) Stock a Buy After the 2025 Pullback?
Whether TMUS is attractive at ~$197 ultimately depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance, but a few points are clear from today’s data:
What the bulls see:
- Operational outperformance: Record customer adds, growing service revenue, and robust cash generation. [58]
- Strategic advantages: A structural 5G spectrum lead, nationwide 5G Advanced rollout, and scale in 5G home internet. [59]
- Compelling valuation: A leading 5G franchise trading near its 52‑week low, with a 2% dividend + buybacks and consensus upside of 25–40% according to multiple analyst aggregators. [60]
What the bears (or cautious investors) worry about:
- Higher capital intensity potentially compressing free cash flow in the near term. [61]
- Escalating competition and promotions, especially if digital switching increases churn and forces richer device subsidies. [62]
- Execution and regulatory risk around UScellular integration, spectrum strategy and AI/digitization projects. [63]
For long‑term, fundamentally focused investors, TMUS increasingly screens as a classic “good business, temporarily unpopular stock” situation: strong operating metrics and network assets, paired with a chart that looks ugly and a narrative full of capex and competitive worries.
For shorter‑term traders, the mix of oversold technicals, heavy headline flow and high analyst targets may create opportunities – but also the risk of sharp swings in either direction. [64]
Whatever your stance, the key is to align any decision with your overall portfolio strategy, time horizon and risk appetite, and to consider diversifying rather than making concentrated bets on a single telecom name.
References
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