T1 Energy (TE) Stock Today: Analyst Upgrades, 2‑Year Highs and New Risks as of December 10, 2025

T1 Energy Inc. (NYSE: TE) has turned into one of the most volatile – and closely watched – names in U.S. clean‑energy manufacturing this quarter. After exploding more than 150% year to date, the stock hit a two‑year high above $7 on Tuesday, December 9, before pulling back into the mid‑$6 range during Wednesday trading. ^[1]

A wave of bullish analyst calls, aggressive factory build‑outs in Texas, and U.S. industrial policy tailwinds are all feeding the rally. At the same time, heavy losses, repeated equity offerings, an SEC document request and a looming Texas Senate probe mean T1 Energy stock sits at the crossroads of big opportunity and big risk. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest T1 Energy stock news, forecasts and analysis as of December 10, 2025, for readers following “T1 Energy stock,” “TE stock forecast 2026,” and similar searches.

T1 Energy stock snapshot on December 10, 2025

Real‑time quote services show T1 Energy trading around the mid‑$6 level on Wednesday:

Last price: about $6.4–6.6 intraday
Previous close (Dec 9):$6.73, up 11.8% on the day
Day’s range (Dec 10 so far): roughly $6.37 – $6.73
52‑week range:$0.92 – $7.04
Market cap: about $1.4 billion
TTM EPS: approximately –$1.33, reflecting deep losses
^[3]

According to Investing.com’s technical summary, T1 Energy currently screens as a “Strong Buy” on daily technical indicators, while MarketScreener shows the stock up more than 150% year‑to‑date. ^[4]

The price action has been extreme even by growth‑stock standards:

On December 9, TE spiked to an intraday high of $7.04 and closed at $6.73, its highest close in roughly two years, up almost 12% for the day. ^[5]
Over the past two weeks, multiple sessions have featured double‑digit percentage moves, including a 16.7% gain on November 28 and a 51% week‑over‑week jump by early December as investors reacted to political and policy news. ^[6]

What T1 Energy actually does

T1 Energy is not a pure “battery startup” anymore. The company, formerly known as FREYR Battery, has deliberately pivoted into U.S. solar module and battery manufacturing:

In 2024–2025, T1 acquired a 5‑gigawatt solar module factory in Wilmer, Texas (its G1_Dallas plant), originally built by Trina Solar. ^[7]
Management says G1_Dallas should account for roughly 10% of U.S. solar module production capacity in 2025, with >2.6 GW of forecast module output this year. ^[8]
The company is simultaneously developing G2_Austin, a planned 2.1 GW solar cell fab in Rockdale, Texas, with room to expand to as much as 8 GW over multiple phases. ^[9]

T1’s strategic narrative is simple: build a fully domestic solar and storage supply chain – from polysilicon and wafers through cells and modules – designed to qualify for U.S. tax credits and tariff protection under recent industrial policy. ^[10]

The big story this week: Analyst upgrades and a new 2‑year high

The immediate catalyst behind the latest surge in T1 Energy stock is straightforward: Wall Street has turned more bullish.

A widely circulated note from Insider Monkey / Finviz on December 10 highlighted that:

T1 Energy extended a four‑day winning streak to hit a two‑year high, with shares touching $7.04 intraday on Tuesday before closing at $6.73, up 11.79%. ^[11]
Alliance Global Partners initiated/updated coverage with a “Buy” rating and an $8.50 price target, implying more than 26% upside from the prior close when the note was written. ^[12]
Johnson Rice had already issued a “Buy” with an $8.00 target the previous week, adding to the bullish chorus. ^[13]

These fresh calls landed on top of earlier coverage:

Needham initiated T1 Energy at “Buy” with a $6 target in October. ^[14]
Roth Capital launched coverage with a $7 target in November. ^[15]

The net result: more brokers are now modeling T1 Energy as a domestic solar manufacturing winner rather than a speculative battery story.

Wall Street forecasts: Modest upside, strong rating

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but they broadly agree on the direction:

Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target of about $7.00, with a $6–$8 range and a “Strong Buy” consensus from four analysts. ^[16]
Fintel / Nasdaq report an updated average target of $7.14, up 55% from a prior consensus of $4.59, with the latest individual targets running from $6.06 to $8.40. ^[17]
MarketScreener aggregates five analysts with a “Buy” mean rating and an average target near $7.30, roughly 8–9% above the recent close around $6.7. ^[18]

On the derivatives side, Fintel notes a put/call ratio around 0.27, a skew that typically signals bullish options positioning. ^[19]

Simply Wall St’s valuation model, published December 8, pegged T1 Energy’s “fair value” at about $7.00 per share, calling the stock roughly 16–17% undervalued at its then‑price of $5.83. The analysis argues that:

Rapid growth in U.S. electricity demand – driven by AI data centers, EVs and onshoring – could sustain strong top‑line growth for solar manufacturers like T1.
Stackable, transferable Section 45X tax credits and protectionist trade rules may support margins and de‑risk T1’s U.S. production pipeline. ^[20]

At the same time, the same report flags hefty capital needs and policy dependence as key risks, and notes that T1 trades on roughly 3.1× sales, above both its own modeled “fair” P/S and the sector average, even if it still looks inexpensive relative to some peers. ^[21]

In short: most formal forecasts cluster just above today’s price, with a consensus that T1 Energy is a high‑risk turnaround rather than a mature cash‑cow.

Q3 2025 results: Revenue explodes, losses deepen

The fundamental backdrop for all this excitement is T1’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings, released on November 14. ^[22]

Headline numbers:

Q3 2025 revenue:$210.5 million, versus essentially zero revenue in the prior‑year quarter as the Dallas plant ramped from a standing start. ^[23]
Analyst expectation: around $3.5 million according to Investing.com – meaning T1 beat the revenue consensus by a huge margin. ^[24]
Net loss attributable to common shareholders:$140.8 million (–$0.87 per share), compared with a $27.5 million loss a year earlier. Losses from continuing operations were $127.6 million. ^[25]

The loss widened in part because T1 took a non‑cash impairment of about $53 million tied to a dispute with a long‑term offtake customer that reduced expected Q3 sales volumes. Management says those deferred volumes are expected to show up in Q4 if the dispute is resolved, but that remains a swing factor. ^[26]

On the balance sheet:

As of September 30, 2025, T1 reported $86.7 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, of which $34.1 million was unrestricted. ^[27]
The company has accrued $93.1 million in Section 45X production tax credits it expects to monetize, an important non‑dilutive funding source if policy remains supportive. ^[28]

Despite the red ink, T1 reaffirmed its 2025 EBITDA guidance of $25–50 million, leaning heavily on:

A sharp production and sales ramp at G1_Dallas, where Q4 output is expected to reach an annualized 4.5 GW run‑rate, more than double the average rate of the first three quarters.
Planned Q4 sales of module inventory to lock in Section 45X credits ahead of policy changes at year‑end. ^[29]

If management hits those targets, Q4 could look very different from Q3 – but the company has little margin for error, given its burn rate and capital needs.

G2_Austin and the domestic solar supply chain bet

T1 Energy’s investment case is inseparable from its Texas manufacturing build‑out.

G1_Dallas: From ramp‑up to workhorse

The Wilmer, Texas plant is one of the more advanced U.S. solar module factories, with 2.6–3.0 GW of expected module output in 2025. ^[30]
T1 has signed deals like a multi‑year frame supply agreement with Nextracker, aimed at shifting away from imported aluminum to U.S.‑made steel frames, and a minority stake in Talon PV, another Texas solar‑cell developer. ^[31]

G2_Austin: Next‑gen cell fab

The company’s Q3 update laid out an ambitious plan for G2_Austin:

Phase 1: a 2.1 GW solar cell fab in Rockdale, Texas, with estimated capital expenditure of $400–425 million.
Construction start: targeted for Q4 2025, funded in part by recent equity and preferred offerings (more on that below).
Production start: planned for Q4 2026, with future phases potentially expanding total G2 capacity to up to 8 GW. ^[32]

When G1 and G2 Phase 1 are both fully ramped (G1 at 5 GW module capacity, G2 at 2.1 GW cells), management estimates run‑rate EBITDA of $375–450 million – a number many bulls use to justify today’s valuation and beyond. ^[33]

Corning partnership and U.S. policy tailwinds

In August, Reuters reported that T1 Energy and Corning struck a deal to build what amounts to a fully American‑made solar panel supply chain, linking U.S. polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules. Under the agreement:

Corning will supply solar wafers from Michigan starting in the second half of 2026.
T1 will turn those wafers into cells at G2_Austin and then assemble them into modules at G1_Dallas.
The project is expected to support around 6,000 jobs across Michigan and Texas. ^[34]

The structure of this deal is important because it helps T1 comply with President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which restricts U.S. tax credits for projects that use equipment from “foreign entities of concern” such as China. ^[35]

A Barron’s feature on solar manufacturing recently highlighted T1 and Canadian Solar as examples of firms racing to localize supply chains and capture these incentives, while noting that the final rules contained surprises that could reshape project economics. ^[36]

Capital raises, dilution and governance changes

None of this build‑out is cheap, and T1 has been aggressively tapping capital markets.

Equity and preferred offerings

Recent transactions include:

A $72 million registered direct equity offering in October 2025, selling about 22.15 million common shares at $3.25 to existing and new institutional investors. One summary notes that this lifted T1’s total cash to roughly $155 million, with about $102 million unrestricted, improving its current ratio to around 1.26. ^[37]
A set of preferred stock deals with Encompass Capital Advisors, in which Encompass exchanged previously issued Series A preferred shares and provided new capital in return for common stock, Series B, and Series B‑1 preferred shares, adding $50 million in funding. ^[38]

Together with these offerings, T1 told investors it had secured about $122 million through two transactions to help fund construction of G2_Austin. ^[39]

Shareholder approvals and share overhang

On December 5, an Investing.com summary of SEC filings noted that T1 shareholders:

Approved the issuance of 17.9 million new common shares tied to the conversion of a convertible note.
Approved amendments establishing limits on foreign ownership to comply with U.S. tax rules. ^[40]

Separately, MarketScreener highlights that T1 has filed for:

A mixed shelf registration of up to $500 million in various securities.
An offering of up to 21.5 million shares by selling securityholders. ^[41]

All of this gives T1 significant capacity to issue more stock, which is good for funding factories but bad for existing shareholders if used heavily.

SEC document request

A November SEC filing summarized on MarketScreener states that T1 Energy and one of its executives received a voluntary document request from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in November 2025. Details are sparse, but the filing categorizes it as a voluntary request rather than a formal enforcement action. ^[42]

For investors, it’s another item on the risk checklist rather than a resolved issue.

Politics and scrutiny in Texas

T1’s push to be the face of American solar manufacturing also puts it directly in the political spotlight.

In August, the Corning–T1 domestic supply chain deal was framed by Reuters as supporting U.S. energy independence and reducing reliance on Chinese manufacturing, aligning with the administration’s hard line on “foreign entities of concern.” ^[43]
In November, T1’s CEO Dan Barcelo met U.S. Vice President JD Vance to discuss American energy and manufacturing policy – a meeting the company heavily promoted in press releases and on social media and which triggered big share‑price moves as traders bet on policy support. ^[44]

But not all attention is friendly. A recent report in the Houston Chronicle says Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has called for the Texas Senate to investigate T1 Energy and Canadian Solar over alleged financial ties to China, with hearings planned for early 2026. ^[45]

The investigation fits into a broader Texas effort to restrict foreign influence in critical infrastructure, especially from China. Depending on how the hearings unfold, they could become an overhang for T1, even if the company insists its strategy is centered on U.S. manufacturing and American‑sourced inputs.

How the market is reading T1 Energy right now

Putting the pieces together, here’s how T1 Energy stock looks as of December 10, 2025.

The bullish case

Explosive revenue ramp: Q3 revenue of $210.5 million from essentially zero a year ago shows T1 can actually sell large volumes of modules as G1_Dallas ramps. ^[46]
Domestic manufacturing scarcity value: In a world where U.S. policy actively favors American‑made solar equipment, a company with multi‑gigawatt module capacity already online and a cell fab underway in Texas occupies a relatively rare strategic position. ^[47]
Policy tailwinds and tax credits: Section 45X credits, domestic‑content bonuses and import restrictions could all boost profitability and protect T1 from low‑cost imports if they remain in place. ^[48]
Institutional and analyst support: Around 200+ institutional investors report positions in T1, and most broker coverage lines up as Buy/Strong Buy with targets slightly above current levels. ^[49]
Valuation narratives: Some models (like Simply Wall St’s) still show double‑digit upside to estimated fair value, assuming the revenue ramp continues and margins improve as plants scale. ^[50]

The bearish case

Heavy losses and execution risk: A $140.8 million quarterly loss and EPS miss of $0.74 versus consensus underline that T1 is still far from profitability and highly sensitive to cost overruns and operational hiccups. ^[51]
Dilution overhang: Recent and potential share issuances in the tens of millions of shares – on a company currently valued around $1.4 billion – mean existing holders face ongoing dilution risk if capital markets remain the primary funding source. ^[52]
Regulatory and political risk: The SEC document request and upcoming Texas Senate probe inject uncertainty that is hard to model but very real for a company whose core pitch is “we’re the compliant, American‑made option.” ^[53]
Policy dependence: T1’s economics lean heavily on U.S. tax credits and tariffs. Any relaxation, legal challenge or change in the “foreign entity” rules could hit margins and project viability. ^[54]
Valuation creep: After a 200%+ 90‑day run and YTD gains north of 150%, even bulls like Simply Wall St caution that the share price has sprinted ahead of current fundamentals, leaving less room for error. ^[55]

Key catalysts to watch from here

For investors tracking T1 Energy stock into 2026, several milestones are likely to drive the next leg of pricing – up or down:

Q4 2025 earnings and 2026 guidance, expected in late February 2026, will show whether G1_Dallas’ production ramp and deferred offtake volumes actually translate into the EBITDA that management has guided to. ^[56]
Ground‑breaking and early construction progress at G2_Austin in Q4 2025 and early 2026 will be a real‑world test of the company’s ability to execute a multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar capex program on time and on budget. ^[57]
Formal offtake contracts for G2_Austin – management has said it expects to sign at least one long‑term offtake deal by year‑end 2025 – will help investors assess how much of T1’s future capacity is actually spoken for. ^[58]
Outcome of the Texas Senate hearings and any follow‑up regulatory action related to foreign ties, as well as further detail (or silence) around the SEC document request. ^[59]
Additional capital raises or debt facilities, which will determine how much more dilution – if any – is required to fully fund G2 and beyond. ^[60]

Bottom line

As of December 10, 2025, T1 Energy stock (NYSE: TE) sits at the intersection of U.S. industrial policy, high‑growth solar manufacturing, and speculative market sentiment:

The company has moved from essentially no revenue to more than $200 million in a quarter, and is building out some of the largest domestic solar capacity in the country. ^[61]
Wall Street’s average T1 Energy price target of roughly $7–7.3 per share suggests modest upside from current levels, with a consensus leaning firmly bullish but not euphoric. ^[62]
At the same time, the stock’s violent swings, continuing losses, and dependence on politics and policy mean that TE remains squarely in high‑risk, high‑reward territory, not in the stable‑compounder bucket.

For traders, T1 Energy is a live wire tied to every headline about tariffs, tax credits, Texas politics and factory ground‑breakings. For longer‑term investors, the real question is whether management can navigate dilution, regulation and execution challenges long enough for its Texas factories – and U.S. policy tailwinds – to turn today’s aggressive investment into tomorrow’s cash flow.