Dec. 23, 2025 — Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) stock traded lower Tuesday as investors weighed late-holiday-season execution risks, fresh analyst commentary tied to a recent digital outage, and a broader read-through from U.S. holiday spending data.
As of the latest available trade, Target shares were around $94.23, down about 1.0% on the day after opening near $95.25 and trading between roughly $93.80 and $95.39 intraday.
The price action comes during a period when Target has been trying to steady results after multiple quarters of negative comparable sales, while simultaneously laying the groundwork for a leadership transition and a strategy refresh heading into 2026. [1]
Target stock today: what’s moving TGT on Dec. 23, 2025
Tuesday’s move looks less like a single headline shock and more like a “late cycle” repricing of near-term uncertainty—especially around digital demand capture in the final week of holiday shopping.
1) A new caution flag from Wolfe Research after a digital outage
In a note published Tuesday, Wolfe Research said recent checks indicate Walmart continues to outperform Target across many trade areas. The firm also pointed to a Target website/app outage and regional distribution disruptions, cutting its Q4 same-store sales estimate by 25 basis points. Wolfe reiterated an Underperform rating and an $81 price target on Target. [2]
2) The outage itself is still fresh in investors’ minds
Target dealt with a high-visibility disruption late last week when customers reported major issues with the app and website. According to Business Insider, Target acknowledged “intermittent issues,” said a fix was underway, and emphasized stores remained open. The report also noted the outage affected online order tracking/fulfillment and some gift card processing—exactly the kind of friction investors watch closely during the holiday rush. [3]
3) Options flow suggests a cautious—though not panicked—tone
Options data published Tuesday characterized sentiment as moderately bearish with puts leading calls (put/call ratio around 1.03 versus a “typical” level near 1.66), while implied volatility remained in the lower end of the past year’s range—signaling the market is pricing routine movement rather than a major shock. [4]
The bigger retail backdrop: holiday spending is up, but shoppers stayed deal-focused
Target’s holiday quarter doesn’t happen in a vacuum. On Tuesday, Visa and Mastercard published early reads showing U.S. holiday retail sales growth around 4% year over year so far this season (with differences in methodology), and noted consumers leaned on promotions and even AI tools to compare prices and stretch budgets. Electronics and apparel/clothing were among the top categories cited. [5]
For Target investors, that’s a mixed signal:
- Spending resilience is supportive for retailers broadly.
- But the “promotion + price comparison” dynamic underscores how hard it is to win share without sharp value, strong in-stocks, and a smooth digital experience—areas where Target has been working to rebuild consistency. [6]
Where Target stands heading into 2026: results, guidance, and the turnaround playbook
Target’s most recent quarterly results show why the stock has become a battleground between “value/turnaround” buyers and skeptics focused on share loss and discretionary weakness.
Q3 2025: sales pressure continues, but profitable growth pockets matter
In its third-quarter 2025 report, Target said:
- Net sales were about $25.3 billion, down roughly 1.5% year over year.
- Comparable sales fell 2.7%.
- Digital comparable sales rose 2.4%, led by more than 35% growth in same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360.
- Non-merchandise sales grew nearly 18%, with Roundel, membership, and marketplace revenues all growing double digits.
- Adjusted EPS was $1.78 (with GAAP EPS $1.51). [7]
The report also included a key margin detail investors keep returning to: Target said gross margin was essentially flat year over year, with pressure from higher markdowns partially offset by advertising/other revenue growth, lower shrink, and efficiency gains in supply chain and digital fulfillment. [8]
Q4 and full-year outlook: cautious, wide ranges
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Target maintained expectations of a low-single-digit decline in sales. For the full year, Target guided to:
- GAAP EPS approximately $7.70 to $8.70
- Adjusted EPS approximately $7.00 to $8.00 [9]
That range—and the implied volatility behind it—has been a central point in recent analyst debates about how quickly the business can stabilize in 2026.
Strategy updates investors are watching most closely
A “stores + digital” operational overhaul is in test mode
Reuters reported in November that Target is experimenting with a new operating model across 35 markets that changes how stores participate in online fulfillment—where only select locations handle picking/packing online orders, while other stores stop doing that function. Reuters also reported management highlighted a GenAI-powered gift finder, and efforts to modernize inventory forecasting using machine learning to improve availability for top items. [10]
Additional 2026 investment: the bet on remodels, new stores, and digital
Reuters also reported Target planned to invest about $1 billion more in 2026 tied to new stores, remodels, and digital improvements. [11]
Moving faster in owned-brand fashion, powered by new tools
Target published details this week on “speed tracks” for apparel and accessories—flexible production schedules designed to cut up to 80% from certain design-to-production timelines—and described a proprietary GenAI “trend intelligence” tool aimed at accelerating trend detection and decision-making. [12]
In plain English: Target is trying to reduce the time between “trend emerges” and “product hits shelves,” which can help reduce markdown risk (a major margin pressure point) if execution is consistent.
Wall Street forecasts for Target stock: “Hold” consensus, wide price target spread
Across widely followed analyst-aggregation datasets, Target’s consensus remains roughly neutral:
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus “Hold” rating with an average $101.04 price target (low $80, high $150). [13]
- MarketBeat shows a consensus “Hold” as well, with an average target around $102.62 (also low $80, high $150). [14]
That range matters. A high-low spread this wide typically signals that analysts disagree on a few pivotal questions:
- Can comps return to positive (and when)?
- How much gross margin can be protected if promotions stay heavy?
- Does Target regain traffic from Walmart/Amazon, or does share loss persist?
StockAnalysis also shows analysts modeling modest revenue growth next year and a rebound in EPS off a weaker base—an implicit “stabilization” thesis rather than a snapback growth story. [15]
Why Target stock rallied earlier this month—and why it’s choppy again
Target shares had recently logged a notable winning streak earlier in December. Barron’s reported the stock rose for 10 straight days, the longest such streak since 1994, attributing much of the move to valuation appeal rather than a sudden improvement in the underlying business. [16]
This framing helps explain the current setup:
- When a stock rallies primarily on “it’s cheap” logic, it can retrace quickly on execution risks—like a holiday-week digital outage.
- When a rally is driven by improving fundamentals, dips tend to get bought more aggressively.
Target’s current debate is still about which category it belongs in.
The bull case vs. bear case for TGT stock in 2026
The bull case: stabilization + better execution can re-rate the stock
Supporters point to levers that could improve quality of earnings:
- Non-merchandise growth (Roundel, membership, marketplace) that tends to be higher margin. [17]
- Operational changes to improve in-stocks and digital fulfillment efficiency. [18]
- Faster product cycles in owned brands, potentially reducing markdown exposure. [19]
- Depressed valuation metrics cited by analysts earlier in the turnaround narrative (Reuters reported Target trading around 12x forward earnings at a discount to its historical average at the time). [20]
The bear case: share loss + inconsistency could keep Target in a “value trap”
Skeptics focus on the evidence that:
- Market share pressure has persisted as shoppers shift to essentials and faster delivery options at Walmart and other competitors. [21]
- Execution missteps (inventory, in-store experience, and now a visible outage) can undermine recovery attempts at exactly the wrong time of year. [22]
- Even within a “Hold” consensus, there are meaningful bearish views (e.g., Wolfe’s Underperform stance and $81 target). [23]
What to watch next: key catalysts for Target stock
1) Post-holiday read-through and Q4 earnings timing
Several market calendars currently estimate Target’s next earnings date around March 3, 2026 (note: estimated, not always confirmed by the company). [24]
That report is likely to be the next major catalyst because it should clarify:
- Holiday-quarter comp performance
- Markdown intensity and margin trajectory
- 2026 investment levels and expected payback
- The pace of operational model expansion (or refinement)
2) Digital reliability and last-mile performance
After a high-traffic outage, investors will watch whether Target discloses any measurable impact on order volume, conversion, or customer satisfaction—and how quickly reliability and fulfillment speed normalize. [25]
3) Evidence that the turnaround is translating into traffic and share
Target has described tools and process improvements—AI gift discovery, machine learning for inventory placement, and the 35-market operating model test. The market will want proof these initiatives translate to better traffic trends and fewer costly markdowns. [26]
Bottom line: Target stock remains a 2026 “execution story,” and Dec. 23 underscores why
On Dec. 23, 2025, Target stock’s dip is less about a single earnings surprise and more about a reminder that the path to a sustained re-rating depends on consistent execution—especially online—during the most important selling weeks of the year. [27]
With holiday spending broadly higher year over year but still promotion-heavy, Target’s near-term stock direction likely hinges on whether management can deliver a cleaner holiday finish—and then convince Wall Street in early 2026 that its operational and merchandising changes can stabilize comps and protect margins. [28]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.businessinsider.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. corporate.target.com, 8. corporate.target.com, 9. corporate.target.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. corporate.target.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. corporate.target.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. corporate.target.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.businessinsider.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.zacks.com, 25. www.businessinsider.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.businessinsider.com, 28. www.reuters.com
