New York — Late Friday, December 26, 2025: Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) shares were trading around $99.55, up about 3% on the day, after reports that an activist investor has taken a significant stake in the retailer. [1]
The move comes as Wall Street heads into the final stretch of 2025 near record territory, but with thin post-holiday volumes and fewer immediate catalysts. In Friday’s session, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all finished slightly lower, a pause after a strong run into the holidays. [2]
For Target stock, the headline is bigger than a single-day pop: investors are weighing (1) a potential activist-driven shakeup, (2) a multi-quarter sales slump, and (3) a looming CEO transition that could define the company’s strategy for 2026.
Why Target stock jumped: Activist investor pressure returns
Reuters reported Friday that Toms Capital Investment Management (TCIM) has made a “significant investment” in Target, citing a Financial Times report. The size of the stake and any specific demands were not disclosed in the reporting, leaving markets to trade on expectations rather than a clear activist playbook. [3]
Target confirmed it is engaging with investors, telling Reuters: “We maintain a regular dialogue with the investment community. Target’s top priority is getting back to growth.” [4]
Activism matters here because Target’s challenges are no longer viewed as a short-term merchandising hiccup. Target has posted three straight quarters of falling comparable sales, and Reuters noted the stock is down more than 28% year-to-date. [5]
The backdrop: A market near records, but investors are selective
Even with major indices near highs, the market tone into year-end has been “selective”—with investors rewarding clear growth narratives (especially in tech) and punishing companies perceived as stuck in turnaround mode. Reuters described Friday’s post-Christmas session as light-volume and near flat, part of the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window often watched by traders. [6]
Target’s activist-driven spike is notable precisely because it’s happening in a tape where many stocks need a fresh catalyst to break out.
Target’s core problem: Sales declines, margin uncertainty, and a tougher consumer
A pressured consumer is changing the retail mix
Target’s business is more exposed to discretionary demand than some rivals, and the late-2025 consumer picture has been mixed:
- Reuters reported that U.S. shoppers spent a record $44.2 billion online during “Cyber Week,” but it also flagged signs of fragility—falling consumer confidence, reduced impulse buying at Target and Walmart, and increased use of buy-now-pay-later tools. [7]
- Separate Reuters reporting, citing Visa and Mastercard, said holiday retail sales rose about 4% in the Nov. 1–Dec. 21 period, driven by categories like electronics and apparel—yet shoppers were described as more deliberate and promotion-sensitive. [8]
That “value-first” behavior explains why Target has leaned harder into price and promotions—moves that can protect traffic but may compress margins if not paired with strong mix and inventory execution.
Q3 results: Digital growth, but comps still fell
Target’s latest quarterly report (fiscal Q3 2025) illustrates the push-and-pull:
- Net sales: about $25.3 billion
- Comparable sales:down 2.7%
- Digital comparable sales:up 2.4%
- Same-day delivery growth:more than 35%
- Adjusted EPS:$1.78 [9]
In other words, Target’s digital and same-day engines are still working—but they have not yet been enough to offset weaker store traffic/mix and broader discretionary pressure.
The 2026 pivot: A new CEO, a restructuring, and a bigger investment plan
CEO transition: Michael Fiddelke takes over in February 2026
Target is in the middle of a leadership handoff: Michael Fiddelke, a long-time executive who joined Target in 2003, is set to become CEO effective February 1, 2026, replacing Brian Cornell. Reuters noted Fiddelke has overseen operations spanning nearly 2,000 stores, the supply chain, and fulfillment services, and has emphasized the need for the company to “move faster.” [10]
That timeline matters for investors because activist pressure is arriving before Fiddelke has the chance to fully own results—yet the market may judge his early strategic decisions immediately.
Cost cuts: 1,800 corporate role reductions
In October, Reuters reported Target planned to cut about 1,800 corporate roles in what it described as its first major layoff in around a decade—aimed at simplifying operations and speeding decisions. [11]
Investment: Another $1 billion planned for 2026
Reuters reported that Target planned to invest an additional $1 billion in 2026 toward stores, remodels, and digital improvements, part of a broader effort to “jumpstart” sales. [12]
In the November earnings coverage, Reuters also detailed operational moves under development, including testing a new model across 35 markets that changes how stores handle online picking and packing—plus expanded use of digital tools and AI in the shopping experience. [13]
Activism: What could TCIM push for — and what’s the limit?
The immediate investor question is whether TCIM will push for:
- governance changes (board structure, leadership accountability),
- operational urgency (accelerated turnaround steps),
- or financial engineering (real estate, asset monetization, capital return).
Reuters pointed out that Target owns about 75% of its real estate (including land), a detail often cited when investors speculate about monetization strategies. [14]
But not all experts see asset moves as the answer. Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData, warned in Reuters that a real estate selloff could provide only short-term gains and risk distracting from the fundamental retail work: fixing product, stores, pricing, and selling methods. [15]
Meanwhile, the nonprofit shareholder group The Accountability Board has already pushed for governance change. Reuters reported it tabled a shareholder proposal urging Target to appoint an independent chair, criticizing a structure where Fiddelke would continue reporting to current CEO Brian Cornell (who is set to become executive chairman). [16]
Wall Street’s current read: Cheap valuation vs. credibility gap
Valuation looks discounted compared with history
Ahead of Target’s November results, Reuters quoted UBS analyst Michael Lasser saying Target traded around 12x forward earnings, at a 25% discount to its 10-year average, while Walmart traded much higher (Reuters cited 35x for Walmart). [17]
That valuation gap is why Target stock can rally sharply on “change” headlines: investors see room for upside if the turnaround starts to look credible.
Analyst targets suggest limited upside without clearer execution
On Street consensus trackers, the tone is more cautious than bullish:
- MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot has shown a Hold-leaning consensus and an average target price in the high-$90s range. [18]
- Another widely followed tracker (MarketBeat) places the average target around $102.62, implying only modest upside from recent levels. [19]
Near-term earnings expectations
Nasdaq’s earnings page shows consensus expectations for the fiscal quarter ending January 2026, with a consensus EPS figure around $2.16 (as displayed on the Nasdaq estimate page). [20]
Investors should treat calendar-based “earnings date” estimates with caution: Target’s own Investor Relations events page currently shows no future events scheduled, meaning the official date may not yet be posted. [21]
Dividend and buybacks: Target is still paying investors while it rebuilds
Despite the operational reset, Target continues to return capital:
- In September 2025, Target declared a $1.14 quarterly dividend, payable December 1, 2025, and noted it was the company’s 233rd consecutive dividend since becoming publicly held in 1967. [22]
- In its Q3 release, Target reported repurchasing about $152 million of stock during the quarter and said it had about $8.3 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization. [23]
For income-focused investors, the dividend is a meaningful support—but it does not eliminate execution risk if the core business continues to lose share.
If the market is closed now: What Target investors should know before the next session
Regular U.S. stock trading has finished for the day, and the next full session begins Monday, December 29, 2025 (NYSE core hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). [24]
Here are the most practical items to monitor before Monday’s open:
1) Watch for an activist filing that reveals the stake size and intentions
Because TCIM’s stake size and demands were not disclosed in press reporting, investors will look for regulatory filings that clarify the position.
Under SEC rules, investors who cross key ownership thresholds and have activist intent may need to file disclosures (commonly associated with Schedule 13D/13G reporting). SEC Investor.gov notes Schedule 13D is filed within five days after the purchase, and the SEC’s rules also reflect a five-business-day deadline for Schedule 13D after acquiring more than 5% beneficial ownership. [25]
2) Expect volatility: activism headlines can fade without specifics
Activism-driven moves often come in waves:
- first the headline,
- then the filing (details),
- then the company response,
- then analyst revisions.
If the filing is delayed, or if it reveals a smaller position than traders assumed, the stock can retrace quickly—especially in thin year-end liquidity.
3) Track consumer and macro headlines that can move retail stocks broadly
Even a company-specific story like activism trades inside a macro container. Key data releases on Monday (Eastern Time) include:
- Advance International Trade in Goods (8:30 a.m.)
- NAR Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 a.m.)
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 a.m.) [26]
These aren’t Target-specific, but late-year sessions can move sharply on any surprise—especially if investors are trying to lock in year-end positioning.
Bottom line for TGT stock: A catalyst, but the turnaround still has to show up in the numbers
Target stock got a jolt from the possibility of change. But whether the rally has legs will likely depend on what TCIM actually wants, how Target responds, and whether incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke can translate restructuring, digital strength, and investment spending into sustained comparable-sales stabilization and margin clarity in 2026. [27]
For now, the setup into Monday looks like this:
- Bull case: activism accelerates accountability and execution; valuation rerates if comps stabilize. [28]
- Bear case: activism becomes a distraction; consumer trade-down persists; price investments pressure profits; Target continues to cede share to Walmart/Amazon. [29]
Either way, after Friday’s move, Target stock is back on the short list of “must-watch” retail names as 2025 ends and the 2026 turnaround narrative begins.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. corporate.target.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. corporate.target.com, 22. corporate.target.com, 23. corporate.target.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. www.investor.gov, 26. www.newyorkfed.org, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
