MUMBAI, Jan 12, 2026, 15:47 IST
- TCS and HCLTech are set to release their fiscal third-quarter results Monday, with investors watching closely for updates on full-year guidance and dividend plans.
- Analysts foresee modest growth, noting that AI deal pipelines and monetisation will shape the market’s outlook.
- Broker forecasts suggest margins will hold steady, despite ongoing wage increases and pricing pressures.
India’s Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and HCL Technologies (HCLTech) are set to release fiscal third-quarter results later Monday. Investors will be watching closely to see how fast artificial intelligence projects are translating into actual revenue.
Focus has shifted from quarterly results to generative AI (GenAI)—tools capable of writing code and text—and whether this tech can revitalize a sector weighed down by foreign investors offloading about 750 billion rupees of Indian IT stocks in 2025. Nomura’s Abhishek Bhandari noted clients are “gradually moving from proof-of-concept projects to standalone implementations of AI.” Meanwhile, HSBC’s Yogesh Aggarwal highlighted that “Hyperscalers are set to invest $2 trillion,” referencing major cloud players’ planned spending. But analysts warned of tariff concerns, H-1B visa uncertainties, and the possibility that AI could drive down prices for legacy services. 1
Quarterly results might be straightforward. The real focus: fiscal 2026 guidance, the scale of new deals, and if boards continue handing out cash despite uneven growth.
Upstox forecasts TCS’s revenue to inch up 1%-3% quarter-on-quarter, landing between 662 billion and 667 billion rupees. Net profit is expected to rise 5%-7%, reaching 127 billion to 129 billion rupees. Investors will zero in on new deal wins estimated at $7-$9 billion and any insights on AI monetisation, given TCS’s report of over 5,000 AI projects and an annualised AI revenue run-rate near $1.5 billion. The company’s results come after market hours, with the third interim dividend record date set for Jan. 17. 2
Nomura, among the brokers watching TCS, expects profit to hold steady at about 123 billion rupees on revenue near 663 billion, Business Today reported. Axis Securities highlighted that “all eyes are on the deal pipeline, vertical commentary and outlook on the BSNL advance purchase order.” Systematix predicted “flattish margins during the quarter.” Some analysts peg total contract value (TCV) around $10-$11 billion.
HCLTech is set to report a 5%-9% rise in net profit compared to last year, driven by sales growth of 11%-12% and margins improving by over 100 basis points, or roughly one percentage point, from the previous quarter, Business Today said. Axis Securities projects a profit after tax around 50.0 billion rupees and revenue near 334.0 billion rupees, adding: “We expect 4.5 per cent QoQ growth led by ER&D and software business seasonality.” Investors will be watching closely for any tightening of full-year guidance and a potential interim dividend. 3
Upstox forecasted HCLTech’s revenue between 313 billion and 331 billion rupees, marking a 4%-5% rise quarter-on-quarter. Net profit is expected to climb 11%-13% sequentially, landing in the 46.5 billion to 47.9 billion rupees range. Operating margins were estimated at 18%-18.5%, with new deal wins projected between $2.5 billion and $3 billion. The firm highlighted that management’s commentary on demand, future guidance, and AI-driven services will be key points to watch. 4
Dividend talk carries weight in a sector that’s relied on payouts as growth tapered off. Investors will dig into whether cost cuts and “AI productivity” are genuinely boosting margins or just covering up softer pricing.
The remarks will send waves through India’s IT sector, touching giants like Infosys and Wipro as well as a range of mid-sized companies betting big on GenAI platforms and collaborations. Investors are eager to pinpoint current AI revenue figures and gauge the pace of growth ahead.
The downside is straightforward. Should U.S. and European clients continue cutting back on discretionary projects, AI might deliver mostly productivity improvements and price pressure instead of driving billable growth. Deals could also shift into future quarters.
