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Tech Rally Meets Fed Reality: What to Know Before the Nov 3 Market Open

2 November 2025
by
Nasdaq Rally Amid Tech Frenzy: Markets Brush Off Shutdown Fears in Late September 2025

Key Facts (Premarket Summary)

  • Futures Point Higher: U.S. stock index futures were slightly up heading into Monday, Nov. 3, buoyed by strong Big Tech earnings and a U.S.-China trade truce [1]. Global markets logged robust gains in late October – the S&P 500 just closed out its 6th straight monthly advance, the Nasdaq its 7th (best streak in 7+ years) [2].
  • Tech Earnings Fireworks: Blockbuster results from Amazon and Apple ignited a rally to end last week. Amazon stock surged 9.6% Friday to a record high after a blowout earnings and upbeat holiday forecast [3]. Apple delivered strong profits and outlook but dipped 0.4% as investors digested iPhone supply concerns [4]. Overall, 83%+ of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q3 forecasts – far above normal [5] [6] – fueling optimism into November.
  • Fed Easing Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% last week (second cut this year), but Chair Jerome Powell warned a December rate cut is “far from assured,” tempering market euphoria [7] [8]. Two Fed officials struck a hawkish tone Friday, with Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic stressing a Dec. cut is “not guaranteed” [9]. Traders quickly pared back December rate-cut odds from ~90% to ~65% [10], underscoring that “higher-for-longer” rate fears persist on Wall Street.
  • Trade Truce Boosts Sentiment: Geopolitical clouds cleared somewhat as U.S.-China trade tensions eased. President Trump and President Xi reached a deal in Busan to avert a threatened 100% tariff hike and pause new trade restrictions [11]. The White House halved some tariffs (cutting average U.S. duties to ~47% from 57%) and China agreed to a 1-year halt on rare-earth export curbs [12], extending a fragile truce between the world’s two largest economies. This de-escalation – alongside hopes of renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. goods – has provided “rocket fuel” for markets [13].
  • Oil Steadies on OPEC+ Move: Crude oil prices are near $65/barrel, off five-month lows. OPEC+ is set to approve a modest output increase of ~137,000 bpd for December to address a potential supply glut [14]. Oil had slid to ~$60 in mid-October on oversupply fears, but rebounded on new Russia sanctions and the U.S.-China trade thaw [15]. Stabilizing energy costs could aid the inflation outlook, though the Middle East conflict remains a wildcard in commodity markets.
  • Week Ahead – Data & Earnings: Investors are watching Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00am ET) for the latest read on factory activity [16]. The economic calendar this week features global PMI surveys and key U.S. reports (e.g. October jobs data later in the week), now resuming after an earlier government shutdown pause in data [17]. Another slew of earnings is on deck: high-profile names like Palantir, AMD, and Qualcomm report in coming days, which will further test the market’s AI-fueled optimism.

Markets Rally on Big Tech Earnings

Wall Street ended last week on a high note, shaking off mid-week jitters. On Friday (Oct. 31), the Nasdaq Composite jumped +0.6%, the S&P 500 +0.3%, and the Dow +0.1% after blowout earnings from Amazon and Apple reignited risk appetite [18]. This “treat after trick” rally came just a day after a tech stumble – Meta’s earnings miss and “eye-watering” AI spending had spooked investors on Thursday, knocking the Nasdaq down over 1.5% [19]. But Amazon and Apple’s stellar results “flipped the script,” lifting sentiment across the market [20].

Amazon (AMZN) delivered a standout quarter and outlook. Its stock rocketed nearly +10% in one day, hitting all-time highs, after the company crushed earnings estimates and issued a bullish holiday sales forecast [21]. That surge in the e-commerce giant alone gave a major boost to the consumer discretionary sector (up 4% Friday, the biggest one-day jump since May) [22]. Apple (AAPL) also beat expectations on strong iPhone and services growth; however, Apple’s stock pulled back -0.4% Friday as traders weighed news of possible supply constraints ahead [23]. Notably, Apple had rallied into its report – shares hit a record ~$271 in after-hours trading – so some profit-taking set in despite the solid results [24].

These two Big Tech “Magnificent Seven” members capped what has been a spectacular October for equities. All three major indices notched weekly and monthly gains [25]. In fact, the S&P 500 and Dow each posted a sixth straight monthly advance (their longest streaks since 2021 and 2018 respectively), and the Nasdaq Composite surged +4.7% in October – its seventh monthly gain in a row, the best tech winning streak in over 7 years [26]. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is now up ~23%, outpacing the S&P (+17%) and Dow (+12%) [27]. One market strategist quipped that the 2025 rally has been “turbocharged” by mega-cap tech leadership – the “Magnificent Seven” stocks (Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla) collectively added trillions in value and propelled the Nasdaq to record heights [28]. That said, not all sectors shared in the spoils: defensive groups lagged, with consumer staples and grocers actually falling Friday amid concerns a potential U.S. government shutdown could hit food assistance spending [29]. Stock pickers were also reminded that even in a rising market, disappointments can be harsh – e.g. Meta plunged 11% post-earnings on its heavy AI capex plans, and medical device maker DexCom sank ~15% after soft guidance [30]. Volatility remains in pockets of the market, underscoring that fundamentals still matter beneath the index-level strength.

Fed Rate Cut vs. “Higher for Longer” – Policy in Focus

While earnings have provided a tailwind, the interest rate outlook continues to inject caution. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points last Wednesday, bringing the benchmark Fed funds range down to 3.75–4.00% [31]. This was the second rate cut of 2025, aimed at cushioning the economy amid cooling inflation. However, Fed officials made clear that investors should not assume a rapid pivot to easy money. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a wary tone in his press conference, stating that another rate cut in December is “far from assured” [32]. He emphasized policy will remain data-dependent, noting it’s “not a foregone conclusion” that more easing will follow unless inflation and growth data warrant it [33]. In fact, one Fed hawk (Cleveland’s Loretta Mester) opposed even the October cut, underscoring some reluctance within the Fed to ease too quickly [34] [35].

The central bank’s messaging immediately rippled through markets. Bond yields initially slipped on the rate cut news but then steadied as Powell spoke. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week around ~4.08%, slightly lower over the week but still elevated [36]. Market-implied odds of a December cut fell sharply after Powell’s remarks – futures now assign roughly a two-thirds chance of a next cut in December, down from ~90% before [37]. “The theme today is pretty similar to yesterday: earnings coming in a little better than expected but tempered by a little more hawkish commentary from the Fed,” observed James Ragan of D.A. Davidson, summing up Wall Street’s cross-currents [38]. Another strategist cautioned that investors “may have gotten in front of their skis” by banking on quick Fed easing [39]. In other words, if inflation doesn’t slow as hoped or growth stays resilient, the Fed could hold rates higher for longer – a scenario that might cap equity valuations, especially in high-growth tech names sensitive to interest rates.

For now, the Fed has also begun very limited bond buying (restarting purchases of Treasuries on a small scale) to ensure market liquidity [40], given recent government funding disruptions. Importantly, policymakers noted the recent temporary government shutdown impeded data collection [41], making it harder to gauge the economy’s true state. With data reporting set to resume, upcoming CPI inflation prints and jobs reports will be critical in shaping the Fed’s next move [42]. As one portfolio manager put it, “Powell’s remarks took some shine off the market… but this is a temporary reaction. It is earnings that ultimately drive equities, and those earnings have been strong.” [43]. Indeed, corporate profits so far have vastly exceeded expectations – of the ~222 S&P 500 companies reporting through Wednesday, 84% beat forecasts, well above the ~77% historical average [44]. Robust earnings can give the Fed cover to hold steady, but if inflation is cooling and growth risks emerge, rate cut hopes could reignite. The bottom line: the bullish narrative (solid growth + cooling prices) is still intact, but the Fed’s words can pack nearly as much punch as Big Tech’s numbers. Investors enter November having to balance earnings euphoria vs. Fed caution as key drivers of the next leg for stocks [45] [46].

Global Markets and Geopolitics: Trade Truce, Oil, and More

Global macro conditions are providing both tailwinds and uncertainties for U.S. markets. A major positive development came from the U.S.-China trade front. During last week’s APEC summit meeting, President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping negotiated a trade truce that significantly dialed down tensions [47]. According to details released this weekend, the agreement averts a looming tariff escalation – Trump had threatened to slap 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, but that move is now off the table [48]. In exchange, China will resume large purchases of U.S. farm goods (like soybeans) and agreed to a one-year pause on its new export controls targeting rare earth minerals and tech metals [49]. Those Chinese export curbs (announced earlier in October) had been a major concern for industries from semiconductors to defense, so a temporary halt eases a big supply chain risk. The U.S., for its part, will halve tariffs on certain Chinese goods (specifically cutting duties on fentanyl-related chemical imports from 20% to 10%) and will pause any new export restrictions on tech sales to China for a year [50] [51]. This “mini-deal” effectively extends the fragile truce between the two economic superpowers through 2026, buying time for a more comprehensive trade pact. Markets reacted favorably – optimism about a trade détente helped global equities rally hard late last month [52] [53]. As Wells Fargo’s Scott Wren noted, merely the prospect of de-escalation provided “rocket fuel” for risk assets worldwide [54]. U.S. multinationals with China exposure (tech hardware, industrials, luxury goods) stand to benefit from reduced tariff costs and improved export prospects. However, analysts also warn the truce is “delicate” and time-bound, meaning trade rhetoric could return ahead of the 2026 U.S. election. For now though, this ceasefire has removed a major geopolitical overhang that was threatening to upset the year-end rally.

Beyond trade, investors are monitoring other geopolitical and macro currents:

  • Oil & Energy: Oil prices have cooled significantly since early fall, which is a relief for inflation. Brent crude dipped to ~$60/barrel in mid-October – a five-month low – amid fears of a growing glut [55]. In response, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are moderating their output strategy. At a meeting on Sunday (Nov. 2), OPEC+ was expected to approve a small production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December [56]. This is a much gentler supply boost compared to earlier months, reflecting concerns of oversupply heading into 2024. New Western sanctions on Russia (targeting Rosneft and Lukoil) complicate the picture, as they may limit how much Moscow can increase output despite quotas [57]. Currently, crude has rebounded to the mid-$60s, partly on those Russia supply curbs and partly on improved sentiment from the trade truce [58]. If oil stays around these levels, it bodes well for containing energy costs. Still, the Middle East conflict (the war in Gaza and regional tensions) remains a risk – any major escalation or supply disruption could reverse the downtrend in oil. So far, however, the oil market appears more driven by fundamentals (inventory builds and OPEC policy) than geopolitical risk, with volatility in crude prices actually easing in recent weeks.
  • Global Stocks & Economy: Overseas markets are largely echoing the U.S. upswing. In Asia, the trade détente and the Fed’s easier stance helped many indexes climb. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose ~15% in October, and South Korea’s KOSPI an astonishing ~19% MTD by Halloween [59], buoyed by the global tech and AI mania. Early Monday, though, Asian shares were mixed – some profit-taking emerged even after the U.S.-China truce, as traders digest whether the deal’s economic boost is fully baked in. Europe’s markets have also been strong; the pan-European STOXX 600 just closed out its best month of 2025, aided by easing energy prices and hopes that central banks there are done tightening. The ECB left interest rates unchanged at its late-October meeting (deposit rate steady at 2.0%) [60], officially signaling an end to its rate hike cycle amid slowing Eurozone growth. Likewise, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy policy (holding at -0.1% short rate, 0.5% 10-year yield cap) [61], even as it hinted at phasing out yield curve control down the line. In sum, global financial conditions are tentatively shifting more accommodative, which – combined with the trade truce – has improved the outlook for international growth. One caveat: China’s economy itself remains a question mark. Recent data on Chinese manufacturing and property sector stress have been mixed, so a sustained U.S.-China truce could help confidence, but China’s internal demand has yet to show a decisive rebound.
  • Other Geopolitical Risks: Aside from U.S.-China and oil, investors remain mindful of political risks. In Washington, the potential for another U.S. government shutdown looms later in November if Congress can’t pass spending bills – a factor that briefly weighed on certain stocks (like defense and consumer staples tied to government spending) last week [62]. Thus far markets have largely shrugged off domestic political drama, but a shutdown could delay economic reports and unsettle sentiment if it materializes. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions (Israel-Hamas conflict) persist in the background; while they haven’t caused major market dislocations lately, they contribute to a general sense of headline risk. Traders will be monitoring any developments on these fronts, though as mentioned, energy and defense sectors would be the most directly impacted by any escalation.

Corporate Earnings and Stock Movers to Watch

Earnings season is entering its later innings, but plenty of notable companies are still set to report results that could sway market sectors. Thus far, the theme has been overwhelmingly positive: U.S. corporate profits are beating estimates at one of the highest rates in years [63]. Aggregate S&P 500 earnings are on track to return to growth after prior quarters of mild declines, thanks in large part to the tech giants. As Ryan Detrick of Carson Group noted, “It’s been a spectacular start to earnings season” with big banks, tech and others delivering upside surprises [64]. This has reassured investors that corporate America can navigate the higher-rate environment.

Big Tech & AI: Last week saw five of the seven largest U.S. companies report (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta). Their results were mostly strong, barring some hiccups:

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) impressed with a return to ad revenue growth and accelerating cloud sales, sending its stock up ~5% after earnings [65]. Google also announced renewed buybacks, pleasing investors.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) delivered solid cloud and AI-driven results but signaled record capital spending ahead (over $30B next quarter on AI data centers), which gave investors slight pause – shares dipped ~1% post-earnings [66]. Microsoft’s CEO framed the AI investment as necessary for future growth, and analysts like Wedbush’s Dan Ives remain ultra-bullish (seeing MSFT on a path to a $5 trillion valuation) [67]. The stock is still near all-time highs, up ~23% in the past year [68] [69].
  • Meta Platforms (META) had the one clear disappointment: although its revenue beat forecasts, the company warned that AI buildout spending will be “eye-watering” in 2024, which spooked investors [70]. Meta’s stock plunged 8–11% over two days [71] [72]. This served as a reminder that even AI winners face cost pressures, and it sparked debate about an “AI bubble” – Meta’s heavy investment was seen by some as a reality check that current AI products (like the metaverse and large language models) may not justify the frothy valuations yet [73].
  • Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of the 2025 AI boom, did not report earnings last week (its next report is due later in November), but it still made headlines. Nvidia’s market cap briefly crossed $5 trillion during Wednesday’s trade – the first company ever to do so [74]. That milestone came as an analyst touted Nvidia riding a “golden wave” of AI demand, and the stock hit a fresh record ~$207 [75]. Notably, in recent months some Nvidia insiders (including CEO Jensen Huang) sold over $1 billion in stock amid the surge [76] [77], reflecting a bit of profit-taking. Still, Nvidia’s share price is up more than 50% this year [78]. The company has an enormous $500B order backlog for its AI chips [79] and just unveiled plans to build cutting-edge U.S. supercomputers, keeping its growth story intact. Any signals on AI demand or supply constraints in Nvidia’s upcoming report will be pivotal for the AI trade.

Looking ahead to this week, earnings to watch on Monday and beyond include:

  • Palantir (PLTR) – reports after Monday’s close. The data analytics firm’s stock has doubled this year on AI enthusiasm. Investors will gauge if its government and commercial AI projects translate into higher guidance.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) – reports Wednesday. As a key chip supplier to smartphones and IoT, Qualcomm’s outlook will shed light on global handset demand and 5G trends. Any commentary on China (a major market) and on AI-at-the-edge chip initiatives will be parsed.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – reports Tuesday or Wednesday (scheduled mid-week). AMD is riding the AI wave as well, launching rival chips to Nvidia’s. Its results and CEO Lisa Su’s comments on data center chip demand (and any supply chain updates) will be crucial for semiconductor stocks. AMD’s main PC and gaming segments are also expected to show improvement as the inventory glut eases.
  • Robinhood (HOOD) – the trading platform reports later in the week. With markets rising, trading activity and crypto volumes may have ticked up; any signals on user growth or higher interest income (from customer cash) could move fintech stocks.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) and Airbnb (ABNB) – consumer-oriented bellwethers reporting mid-week. These will give insight into U.S. consumer spending patterns: Starbucks in discretionary retail and China reopening trends; Airbnb in travel demand. So far, consumer spending has held up better than expected, but any cracks (via guidance) will be noteworthy.

In terms of pre-market movers for Monday, the tone is mostly set by the broad factors discussed (futures slightly green on trade and earnings optimism). No market-shaking corporate news broke over the weekend, but a few names could see activity:

  • Shares of energy companies may be in focus after the OPEC+ decision on Sunday. With oil prices stabilizing, oil majors (Exxon, Chevron) and shale producers could get a modest lift if investors believe the supply/demand balance will firm up into year-end.
  • Nokia (NOK) – This telecom equipment stock surged over 20% late last week after announcing that Nvidia will invest $1B in Nokia for a 2.9% stake as part of a strategic 5G/AI partnership [80]. Nokia also won several big 5G contracts in Europe and beat earnings estimates [81] [82]. U.S.-listed Nokia ADRs might extend gains if investors are still digesting the bullish news (the stock jumped to ~$8.19, a multi-year high, on Thursday) [83]. This story highlights how legacy tech firms are reinventing themselves via AI alliances, and it sparked a broader rally in networking and 5G stocks.
  • Tesla (TSLA) – The EV giant’s stock rallied ~8% last week, helped by the tech momentum and speculation about upcoming product announcements. Any overnight news on Tesla (production, deliveries, or CEO Elon Musk’s other ventures) can always sway its volatile shares in pre-market, though nothing significant hit the wires as of Sunday night. Traders will also watch if rising bond yields (which can pressure richly valued growth stocks like TSLA) cause any pullback.

On the sector level, leadership remains firmly with technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services – essentially the growth-oriented sectors powered by Big Tech and AI. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose ~5% last week and is near record territory, reflecting the chip boom. Conversely, traditionally defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) and some cyclicals (energy earlier, though bouncing now with oil) have lagged. Banks and financials have been middling performers; with the Fed cutting rates, the yield curve is steepening less, which can pinch bank margins, but a soft landing outlook has kept credit concerns at bay. If bond yields stay off recent highs, housing and real estate stocks could also see relief in coming weeks.

The Road Ahead: Key Indicators on Monday

As the U.S. trading session on November 3, 2025 approaches, a few key items are on the immediate radar:

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) – Due at 10:00 AM ET Monday. Forecasts expect a slight uptick but still sub-50 (contractionary) reading. Any surprise rebound above 50 would signal manufacturing expansion and could boost industrial stocks – but might also raise questions on whether the Fed can stay dovish. A weaker PMI, on the other hand, might initially spook markets (growth scare) but reinforce the case for Fed easing. Traders will parse the new orders and prices-paid subindices closely for inflation trends [84]. Note: The Markit final manufacturing PMI is also out Monday morning, providing another data point on factory conditions.
  • Global PMI Releases – Manufacturing PMIs from Europe, the UK, and Asia are being released around the same time. Early reads show Europe’s factory downturn easing slightly (e.g. Germany’s PMI final came in a bit higher than flash). China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI (out over the weekend) ticked above 50 for the first time in months, signaling modest growth – an encouraging sign if confirmed. These global data will feed into sentiment about worldwide demand and trade.
  • Fed Speakers – The Fed is now in a data-dependent mode, and we are past the blackout period of the FOMC meeting. Any scheduled Fed speakers this week could move Treasury yields. However, no Fed speeches are slated for Monday, giving the market a breather to digest last week’s policy shift. Later in the week, remarks from regional Fed Presidents or Governor comments will be watched for hints at how divided the committee is on further cuts.
  • Treasury Auction – On Monday, the U.S. Treasury will auction 3-month and 6-month T-bills as usual. While routine, it comes as the Treasury is ramping up issuance to rebuild its cash balance. So far, demand for Treasuries has been decent, and shorter-term yields have fallen now that the Fed is cutting rates. Still, the bond market bears monitoring – any hiccup in auctions or spikes in yields could quickly reverberate into equities (given how stock valuations are sensitive to interest rates).

In summary, investors head into the Nov. 3 open with cautious optimism. The backdrop features strong momentum – October’s rally, powerful earnings, and easing global risks (trade, inflation) – but also a dose of reality checks around policy and valuations. As one strategist put it, “the U.S. stock market enters November with strong momentum thanks to Big Tech’s earnings fireworks, but also with trepidation about policy and macro risks.” [85] Bulls are hoping the year-end “Santa Claus” rally is on track, fueled by a resilient economy, cooling inflation, and the AI revolution’s promise. Bears counter that stock prices have run well ahead of fundamentals – with the S&P 500’s market cap now over 219% of U.S. GDP, a level that global regulators warn could be “stretched” and vulnerable if growth disappoints [86]. Even some tech titans (like OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos) have cautioned that AI mania may be overheating, saying valuations have “outrun fundamentals” [87]. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon even described the market’s conditions as “bubble-like,” warning of a potential sharp correction should lofty expectations go unmet [88].

For now, however, the market seems to be climbing the wall of worry. “We are not at a bubble stage yet,” insists investor Eric Schiffer, arguing the AI revolution is only in its early innings and real revenues will ultimately justify the hype [89]. The VIX volatility index sits near one-month lows [90], indicating a sense of calm returning. Pre-market indicators suggest a modestly higher open as of early Monday, thanks to that constructive news flow on multiple fronts. To keep the rally alive, traders will be looking for confirmation from this week’s data (that inflation remains tame and growth steady) and from any remaining earnings. If companies continue to deliver and the Fed stays friendly, stocks could grind higher into the final stretch of 2025 [91]. But any stumble – a hot inflation surprise, a hawkish Fed comment, or a geopolitical flare-up – could test the market’s resilience. In short, heading into the Nov. 3 trading day, the bulls still have the upper hand after an October to remember, yet they remain vigilantly focused on the next catalysts in this dynamic, late-year market environment [92].

Sources: Financial news and data from ts2.tech [93] [94], Reuters [95] [96], Investopedia/MarketBeat [97] [98], and Bloomberg/Reuters insights [99] [100], as cited above. All information is up to date as of Nov. 2, 2025.

Market Talk: Big Tech treats and a tricky week for the Fed | REUTERS
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Marcin Frąckiewicz

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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